Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][75] Core Viewpoints - The real estate development investment in China from January to August reached 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, indicating a significant decline in the sector [3] - The new construction area of residential buildings decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [3] - The average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement nationwide is 344.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.9% week-on-week but a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year [4][14] - The report highlights that the supply-side reform in the building materials sector is expected to reach a turning point, with a recovery in housing purchase willingness due to declining interest rates and supportive policies [6][20] - The report anticipates that the real estate market will stabilize, driven by policies aimed at boosting housing consumption and improving purchasing power [3][6] Summary by Sections High-frequency Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average price of P.O 42.5 cement is 344.5 yuan/ton, with regional prices varying [4][14] - The glass (5.00mm) ex-factory price is 1165.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.0% [21][24] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3%, while the building materials index rose by 0.43% [5][59] - Sub-sectors such as refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing showed positive growth, while cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experienced declines [5][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies [6]

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a neutral fundamental situation. During the peak season, demand provides weak support at the lower end, while there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies at the upper end. Technically, the bulls are continuous and stable, and the bears are discontinuous, so the glass futures price often has a lower shadow line. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for the 01 contract, paying attention to the support level of 1150 - 1160 [3][4]. - The callback - buying strategy is recommended for glass investment. The main logic is that the glass fundamentals have no obvious changes, the price is affected by coal environmental protection news, the inventory is generally decreasing, the cost of coal - gas production has increased, and the demand from the middle and lower reaches has a short - term replenishment [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Callback buying [3][5]. - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first rose and then fell. The fundamentals remained unchanged, and the price followed the coking coal futures due to coal environmental protection news. There were no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline, but the inventory in North China increased slightly due to rumors of production suspension in Shahe. The inventory in Hubei continued to decline, and the orders of processing plants in East and South China were good. The cost of coal - gas production increased, and the profit decreased, while the profit of petroleum - coke production increased. The middle and lower reaches had short - term replenishment, and the market sentiment improved. The supply and inventory of soda ash decreased slightly, and it was expected to fluctuate recently considering future capacity expansion [3]. - Outlook: The glass fundamentals are neither good nor bad. In the peak season, demand provides weak support, and there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies. Technically, the bulls are strong, so a long - position strategy for the 01 contract is maintained, with attention to the 1150 - 1160 support level [4]. 02 Market Review: Spot Price Increase - Spot Price: As of September 19, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,140 yuan/ton (+30) in Central China, and 1,230 yuan/ton (+10) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,216 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan for the week [12]. 03 Market Review: Widening of Monthly Spreads - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of September 19, the soda ash futures price was 1,318 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,216 yuan/ton, with a spread of 102 yuan/ton (-8). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 106 yuan/ton (+4). - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (-23) [13][17]. 04 Profit: Increase in Gas Cost - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,579 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was - 349 yuan/ton (+9). - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,181 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 31 yuan/ton (-22). - Petroleum - Coke Process: The cost was 1,093 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was 47 yuan/ton (+29). - Fuel Prices: On September 19, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 598 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Unchanged - Daily Melting Volume: Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 159,455 tons/day (unchanged), with 225 production lines in operation [22]. - Production Line Changes: There were cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions in some production lines [23][24]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - National Inventory: As of September 19, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,090.8 million weight boxes (-67.5). - Regional Inventory: The inventory in North China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+30.9), in Central China was 589 million weight boxes (-33.7), in East China was 1,320.7 million weight boxes (-18.1), in South China was 941.7 million weight boxes (-13.8), in Southwest China was 1,248 million weight boxes (+5.6), the Shahe factory inventory was 278 million weight boxes (+31), and the Hubei factory inventory was 417 million weight boxes (-32) [26]. - Production and Sales Rate: On September 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 100% (+4). - LOW - E Glass: On September 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (+1). - Order Days: In mid - September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [32]. 07 Deep - Processing: Recovery and Maintenance of Production and Sales Rate - The production and sales rate of glass deep - processing recovered and was maintained. The order days and the operating rate of LOW - E glass showed certain trends [32][34]. 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Growth in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million units, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 units. The sales volume was 2.857 million units, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 units. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in China was 1.101 million units, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [42]. 09 Demand: Decline in Real Estate Development Investment - Real Estate: In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). - Transaction Area: From September 13 to September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. - Development Investment: In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [48]. 10 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Market Price Increase - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - Factory Price: The ex - factory prices of some heavy soda ash enterprises had certain changes. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,318 yuan/ton (+28). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China for the 09 contract was - 18 yuan/ton (-28) [51][55][56]. 11 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Cost Increase - Profit: As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 71 yuan/ton (-16). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,100 yuan/ton (+111), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production Cost: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,320 yuan/ton (+44), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production process was 1,739 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 71 yuan/ton (-16) [57][58][59]. 12 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Inventory Reduction - Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.57 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 million tons), including 41.77 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons) and 32.8 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons). The loss was 12.62 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.53 million tons). - Warehouse Receipts: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 0 (a month - on - month decrease of 6916). - Inventory: As of September 19, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,900 tons), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 28,400 tons) and 749,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons) [72]. 13 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Improvement in Apparent Demand - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 446,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 341,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons. - Production and Sales Rate: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.39%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [75][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the glass and soda ash markets, including price changes, production and sales, and profit margins [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate increased by 40, while the price of Shandong 5mm large - plate remained unchanged. Futures contracts such as FG05 and FG01 also had price increases [2] - **Production and Sales**: In the glass market, the production and sales in Shahe area declined, with poor shipments at low prices. In Hubei, factory transactions were acceptable, but the transactions of new products in the middle - reaches were poor. The production and sales rates in different regions were as follows: Shahe 88, Hubei 102, East China 99, and South China 102 [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of glass production in different regions and using different energy sources varied. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 7.7, and the profit of South China natural - gas glass decreased by 6.3. The cost of North China coal - fired glass increased by 16.7 [2] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products in different regions generally increased. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda increased by 30, and the price of North China light soda increased by 40. Futures contracts such as SA05 and SA01 also had price increases [2] - **Industry Situation**: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased significantly, while the delivery warehouse inventory increased significantly, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of soda ash production in different production methods and regions also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 6.2, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 35.5. The cost of North China ammonia - soda method increased by 28.3 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of futures and spot markets in the glass industry, particularly in Shihezi, Hebei, is transforming traditional manufacturing into a more competitive and resilient sector through financial tools and services [1][2][8]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Solutions - The glass production industry faces significant financial pressures due to high capital requirements and price volatility of raw materials like soda ash and quartz sand, leading to frequent issues such as order losses and inventory accumulation [2][3]. - The entry of futures traders and the implementation of a futures-spot linkage model provide potential solutions to these challenges, offering customized financial services that help companies manage price risks and stabilize operations [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Tools and Services - Futures traders offer tailored services to glass manufacturers, including price hedging strategies that allow companies to lock in sales prices and hedge against rising raw material costs, thereby mitigating risks associated with price fluctuations [3][4]. - The introduction of a "virtual inventory" concept allows companies to reduce physical stock during periods of oversupply, thus lowering storage costs and improving cash flow [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Collaboration - The collaboration between upstream raw material suppliers, midstream manufacturers, and downstream processors has improved with the introduction of flexible pricing mechanisms, such as "futures point pricing," which alleviates pricing conflicts and enhances stability across the supply chain [5][6]. - The integration of financial institutions with futures traders enables small and medium enterprises to access financing through warehouse receipt pledges, addressing cash flow challenges within the industry [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Transformation - The shift towards futures-spot integration is recognized as essential for enhancing the core competitiveness of glass enterprises, pushing them to evolve from traditional manufacturers to comprehensive service providers [8]. - The ongoing digital transformation and green initiatives in the glass industry are expected to further refine financial services, aligning them with specific industry needs and improving overall resource allocation [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Fujian has become a significant player in the global automotive glass market, producing one out of every three automotive glasses worldwide, with a particular focus on innovative products like the "5G antenna glass" which has received over 4 million orders this year [1][3][8] - The "5G antenna glass" not only supports high-speed data transmission exceeding 70 Mbps but also features multiple functionalities such as infrared isolation, adjustable light transmission through liquid crystal arrangement, and self-heating for defrosting [3][5] - The development of new technologies and production processes is being driven by an increasing number of companies in Fujian establishing dedicated R&D laboratories, which facilitate the continuous emergence of innovative products like the "5G antenna glass" [7][8] Group 2 - The testing of automotive glass, particularly the windshield, emphasizes that the glass should break within a fraction of a second upon impact to absorb energy, while also ensuring that the shattered glass does not pose a secondary injury risk [5] - The support from various government departments during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has been crucial, with policies such as expanding the scope of "technology loans" to promote R&D investment and innovation, enhancing the reputation of "Fujian manufacturing" [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Glass - Supply: Current daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a short - term upward expectation. Xinjiang Puyao and Zhuzhou Liling Qibin restarted production in August. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply changes and the coal - to - gas conversion of Shahe production lines [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 675,000 heavy cases (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. Middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the profit of natural gas - fired glass production lines is - 165 yuan, coal - gas - fired is + 94 yuan, and petroleum - coke - fired is + 41 yuan [3]. - Demand: As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days are 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. The deep - processing raw material reserve is 11.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.87%. This week's production and sales weakened overall, especially in Shahe [3]. - Strategy: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The glass price currently lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the mid - stream inventory reduction ability is weak. There are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and policy expectations are uncertain. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Future attention points include supply ignition expectations, coal prices, and mid - stream inventory reduction [3]. 纯碱 - Supply: Weekly production is 745,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons, with heavy soda down 4,000 tons and light soda down 11,400 tons). The supply remains high, and Yuanxing Phase II started the commissioning stage on September 19 [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 614,900 tons (an increase of 59,400 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3705 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,500 tons. The upstream soda ash plants are reducing high - level inventories [6]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - alkali method is - 71 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is - 37 yuan/ton. The raw salt price remained stable this week, while the coal price increased, leading to a slight increase in the cost [6]. - Demand: The inventory of photovoltaic finished products continues to decline, and the pressure eases. The daily melting of photovoltaic glass is 88,800 tons, remaining stable. The float glass end is generally stable. In August, the export of soda ash was 215,400 tons, far exceeding expectations, a month - on - month increase of 33.6% [6]. - Strategy: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. With Yuanxing Phase II starting commissioning, the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The mid - and downstream of heavy and light soda ash mainly replenish inventory due to rigid demand, and the pressure on soda ash plants has eased. The long - and medium - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass finished products has declined to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and there is no expectation of weakening. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. However, the export of soda ash in August exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviates domestic pressure to some extent. High inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit the price of soda ash, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [8]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of Shahe delivery product prices, float glass prices in different regions (such as Central China, East China), and price differences between different regions and plate sizes [11][14][17]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][36]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of float glass daily melting, weekly production, loss volume, production line start - up rate, and capacity utilization rate [40][41][45]. Production and Sales - Shows seasonal charts of glass production and sales rates on a weekly average basis in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [48]. Deep - Processing - Presents seasonal charts of deep - processing glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [54]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of float glass produced by different processes (coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired) [58]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of float glass monthly import, export, and net export volumes [62]. Statistics Bureau Data - Includes seasonal charts of the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [66]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of float glass factory inventory, inventory in different regions (such as East China, North China, South China), and Shahe inventory (factory, dealer, and total inventory) [70][72][79]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of float glass weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports) and the cumulative year - on - year change of monthly apparent demand [85]. Soda Ash Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [88]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions (such as Shahe, North China, Qinghai) and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [92][96][101]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [109][111][116]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash weekly production, production of heavy and light soda ash, capacity utilization rate in different regions and processes, and monthly production (weekly converted to monthly) and its cumulative value [115][117][132]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of soda ash produced by different processes (ammonia - alkali method, co - production method) [134]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash monthly import, export, and net export volumes [143]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash factory inventory, delivery warehouse inventory, total inventory (factory + delivery warehouse), and inventory in different regions (such as North China, South China, Central China) [147][149][153]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of soda ash weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports), apparent demand of light and heavy soda ash, and the number of days of outstanding orders of soda ash enterprises and raw material inventory days of glass factories [157][160][168]. Photovoltaic Glass - Presents seasonal charts of photovoltaic glass daily melting, loss volume, combined daily melting and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass, and weekly enterprise inventory [172][173][177].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials sector is maintained as "Accumulate" [3] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector experienced a slight increase of 0.05% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with cement and glass manufacturing sectors declining by 1.08% and 1.64% respectively, while fiberglass manufacturing and renovation materials increased by 0.60% and 1.19% respectively [1][12] - The Shanghai real estate policy continues to optimize, with further adjustments needed to stimulate the market [2] - The demand for cement is still in a bottoming process, with supply-side improvements expected due to increased production control measures [2][16] - The glass market is facing supply-demand contradictions, but self-discipline in production among photovoltaic glass manufacturers may alleviate some pressure [2][6] - The fiberglass market shows signs of recovery, with prices stabilizing after a price war and increasing demand from the wind power sector [2][7] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of September 19, 2025, the national cement price index is 338.4 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous week, while the cement output increased by 3.2% to 2.744 million tons [3][16] - The utilization rate of cement clinker production capacity is at 53.06%, down 2.63 percentage points from the previous week [16] - The overall cement market is in a weak recovery phase, with demand from the construction sector still limited due to tight funding in real estate [16] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1207.95 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [6] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the market remains under pressure due to high stock levels among intermediaries [6] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remains stable, with demand recovering slowly [7] - The market for electronic yarn shows varied performance, with some high-end products experiencing tight supply [7] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [2] - Key stocks recommended include Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, with a focus on companies with growth potential [2][9] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production costs at 107,000 CNY/ton and a negative gross margin [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the growth in China's laminated glass production, with a reported output of 12.85 million square meters in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Cumulative production from January to May 2025 reached 63.82 million square meters, showing a cumulative growth of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - The companies mentioned in the laminated glass industry include Qibin Group, Nanshan Glass, Fuyao Glass, Jinjing Technology, Kaisheng New Energy, Yaopi Glass, Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, and Yamaton [1] - The report referenced is the "2025-2031 China Laminated Glass Industry Market Status Survey and Development Trend Judgment Report" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in China's flat glass production, with a reported decrease of 5.7% in May 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - Cumulative flat glass production from January to May 2025 reached 40,176.8 million weight cases, reflecting a 4.9% decrease year-on-year [1] - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting, which provides insights into the market supply and demand dynamics of the glass products industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 2 - The listed companies in the glass industry include Qibin Group, Nanshan Glass A, Jinjing Technology, Kaisheng New Energy, Yaopi Glass, Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, Yamaton, and Fuyao Glass [1] - The data source for the production statistics is the National Bureau of Statistics, with the information organized by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports and customized services [1]

Report on Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment showed a trend of first declining and then rising during the week. Driven by the strengthening of futures, local trading improved slightly. However, the overall terminal demand remained weak, with downstream procurement being cautious and a strong wait - and - see sentiment. On the supply side, there were limited adjustments to production lines, and the market supply was relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintained stable prices for shipments, with actual transactions flexibly adjusted. Regional inventory performance was significantly differentiated, with better destocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still faced certain inventory accumulation pressure. Fundamentally, the market lacked unilateral driving factors, and the price fluctuation range was limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume and open interest decreased this week, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong, but the price center continued to rise. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the trading volume is expected to form support at low levels, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels with a light position [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [13]. - **Cost - profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [13]. - **Supply**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [13]. - **Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [13]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,208 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 58 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 125 yuan/ton (- 25), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (- 357), the 09 - 01 spread was 185 yuan/ton (+ 382), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [22]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.84 yuan/ton, up 9.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 94.03 yuan/ton, down 6.37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 41.37 yuan/ton, up 11.43 yuan/ton from the previous week [29][32]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, up 0.85 days from the previous week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00% from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August alone, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.8154 million and 2.8566 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% and 16.44% respectively; from January to August, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively [40][43][46]. 05. Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 675,000 heavy boxes from the previous week; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 3.0448 million heavy boxes, up 388,800 heavy boxes from the previous week [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On the supply side, it was generally stable. Some plants such as Anhui Hongsifang and Hubei Xindu resumed production one after another, but short - term local shutdowns for maintenance still led to a slight contraction in the industry's operating load, and the overall supply showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The pre - holiday stocking willingness of some enterprises gradually increased, and they replenished inventory in moderation at low prices, driving the enterprise inventory to show a downward trend. Some manufacturers' orders were basically fully signed, and the mentality of stabilizing prices was strengthened. However, the current industry supply was still at a relatively high level, and the absolute inventory level was still relatively high, so the upward driving force of the fundamentals was still limited. From a trading perspective, the trading volume this week was small, and an effective breakthrough could not be formed. The form was relatively loose, and it was still in a volatile market. It was recommended to be cautious [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [62]. - **Cost - profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week [62]. - **Supply**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [62]. - **Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [62]. - **Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [62]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 20, 2025, the spot market quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,306 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 20, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 91 yuan/ton (- 16), the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton (- 244), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 260), and the open interest reached 1.9181 million lots [71]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.75 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108.5 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: As of September 20, 2025, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3,900 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of raw salt in Northwest China was 205 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [82][85]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74,570 tons, down 1,540 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.53%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41,770 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the output of light soda ash was 32,800 tons, down 1,140 tons from the previous week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of September 20, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112,122.5 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with 225 operating production lines, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in July reached 3.01 million tons [96]. 05. Inventory - **Soda Ash Inventory**: As of September 20, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons, down 41,900 tons from the previous week; the inventory available days were 14.56 days, down 0.34 days from the previous week. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 100,610 tons, down 2,840 tons from the previous week; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 74,950 tons, down 1,350 tons from the previous week [101][104].