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日本要加息,全球国债闻讯下跌,风险资产全线回调
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 00:15
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's hawkish signals have triggered a global bond market sell-off, leading to rising yields in major economies and impacting high-risk assets like Bitcoin [1][3]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a rate hike in December, aiming to raise rates to 0.75% before discussing future paths [1][3]. - Following Ueda's statements, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.07 percentage points to 1.87%, reflecting expectations of monetary policy normalization [3]. Group 2: Global Market Reactions - The shift in Japan's interest rate expectations has caused a ripple effect in the global fixed income market, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experiencing its largest single-day increase in a month [4]. - Concerns arise that rising Japanese bond yields may lead domestic investors to withdraw funds from foreign government bonds, reducing demand [4]. Group 3: Impact on Risk Assets - The increase in yields for safe-haven assets has pressured risk assets, with Bitcoin dropping 5.5% in a single day and over 20% in the past month [2][6]. - The tech sector in the U.S. was notably affected, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 0.4% and the S&P 500 down by 0.5% [2][6]. Group 4: Liquidity and Trading Strategies - The unwinding of carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yield currencies like the yen to invest in higher-yield assets, has intensified the sell-off in risk assets [5][6]. - The sell-off in bonds has led to a broader contraction in market risk appetite, affecting various sectors including technology and cryptocurrencies [6].
港股收评:恒指涨0.67%、科指涨0.82%,有色金融、航运股走高,加密货币及新消费概念股走低
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 08:49
Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67% to close at 26,033.26 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.82% to 5,644.76 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 2.24%, Tencent up 1.31%, and JD Group up 0.52%. However, Xiaomi fell by 1.76% and Meituan dropped by 2.88% [1] - The metals sector saw significant gains, with China Nonferrous Mining rising over 13% [1] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks generally declined, with New Fire Technology Holdings down over 9% [1] Company News - Meituan reported Q3 revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but its core local business operating profit turned negative, resulting in a loss of 14.1 billion yuan [2] - China Gas reported revenue of 34.481 billion HKD and a profit of 1.334 billion HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025 [3] - Yingtong Holdings reported a revenue of 1.028 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.42%, but net profit increased by 15.4% to 133 million RMB [3] - Jihai Resources reported a revenue of 450 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, with a net profit of 88.127 million RMB, up 2.98% [3] - Yuhua Education reported annual revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 930 million RMB, up 133.2% [3] - Huitai Textile reported mid-term revenue of 2.524 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.72%, and a net profit of 79.322 million HKD, down 25.77% [3] - Huaxin Handbag International reported revenue of 432 million HKD, a year-on-year increase of 22.55%, and a profit of 48.262 million HKD, up 78.88% [4] Institutional Insights - GF Securities noted that the foundation for a bull market in Hong Kong stocks remains intact, but the evolution may present a "volatile upward, gradually rising" characteristic rather than a rapid increase [12] - Dongwu Securities indicated that short-term risk factors in Hong Kong stocks are decreasing, but a catalyst is needed for confirmation of a rebound [12] - Everbright Securities suggested that compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase [12] - CICC highlighted that dividends have become a preferred choice in the current market environment, with the banking sector rebounding nearly 10% since the end of September [13]
资产配置全球跟踪 2025年11月第5期:资产概览:银价铜价创历史新高
Market Overview - Global risk appetite has improved significantly, with major equity indices and commodities rising in tandem as of November 28, 2025[7] - Silver and copper prices have reached historical highs, with silver surpassing $56 per ounce and copper closing at $11,175.5 per ton[7] - The MSCI Global Index increased by 3.5%, with developed markets outperforming emerging and frontier markets[20] Equity Performance - Major U.S. indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.9% and the Russell 2000 increasing by 5.5%[20] - In emerging markets, the A-share market saw a 2.9% increase, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 both up by 4.5%[20] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively[20] Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening by 3.7 basis points to 0.42%[36] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising to 86.4%[37] Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as the South China and CRB rose by 2%, with 10 out of 13 major commodities recording price increases[55] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, dropping below 100, while the euro, pound, and yuan appreciated by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.4%, respectively[77] Risk Indicators - The implied offshore RMB exchange rate for gold has broken the 7 mark, indicating significant currency fluctuations[82] - Key risk indicators such as VIX and MOVE have shown a notable decline, reflecting reduced market volatility[7]
美股进入收官月,但今年“圣诞老人行情”不会来了?
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-12-01 05:00
随着美股进入12月,华尔街交易员们又开始期待起每年一度的"圣诞老人行情"了。 所谓"圣诞老人行情",是每年12月美股季节性的上涨行情。在每年感恩节之后,美股往往会持续上涨, 且波动性逐渐减弱,从而使得12月通常会成为美股全年表现最为出色的月份之一。 然而今年,一些策略师们表示,"圣诞老人"可能不会现身了。 今年"圣诞老人"不来了? 每年年底,尤其是在12月的最后一周和1月的头几天,美股经常出现上涨的现象。这种上涨行情往往受 到多重因素的支撑:假日里投资者情绪更为乐观、假期里消费增加,以及年末假期内交易量往往较低, 市场更容易受看涨的散户投资者影响。 然而,加拿大皇家银行资本市场衍生品策略主管艾米·吴·西尔弗曼(Amy Wu Silverman)却预感,今年 的"圣诞老人行情"不会来,因为"今年过去的这些月份的美股表现都不符合季节性规律。" 今年年初至今,各种迹象表明,今年并非一个正常的市场周期:比如2月份,因DeepSeek开源AI模型的 横空出世导致美股科技股一度暴跌;4月份,美国总统特朗普出人意料宣布了广泛征收所谓"对等关 税",再次引发美股普遍暴跌;还有过去几个月来,市场对人工智能高估值的担忧,为科技股 ...
港股午评:恒指涨0.81%,有色板块大涨,中兴通讯劲升超11%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-01 04:09
港股上午盘三大指数集体上涨,恒生指数盘中一度冲高至1.24%,午间收涨0.81%重回26000点上方,国 企指数、恒生科技指数分别上涨0.64%及0.99%。大型科技股多数表现活跃,尤其是阿里巴巴涨超3%表 现相对强势;铜价新高,金价持续上涨,有色板块大爆发,五矿资源、中国黄金国际涨幅领先,苹果概 念股、半导体芯片股、港口及海运股普遍上涨。豆包手机助手已搭载在中兴的样机上,中兴通讯大涨超 11%表现抢眼。另外,中国央行首次重磅定调稳定币,加密货币概念股多数走低,泡泡玛特、蜜雪集 团、沪上阿姨等新消费概念股走低。(格隆汇) ...
黄金翻倍买入,石油够6个月,粮食够2年,囤硬通货释放什么信号
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-30 09:25
Group 1: Strategic Resource Accumulation - The article discusses the importance of national strategic resource accumulation, particularly in uncertain global conditions, to ensure wealth security for the country and its citizens [1][8] - China has significantly increased its gold reserves, reportedly more than doubling them over the past decade, with unreported purchases potentially exceeding public data by over ten times [3][5] - The accumulation of gold serves as a financial safety net, especially during times of geopolitical instability and fluctuating trust in the US dollar [5][13] Group 2: Oil and Food Security - In the first ten months of the year, China imported 3.462 billion barrels of oil, accounting for 10% of global supply, which is more than Saudi Arabia's daily production [9][11] - China is constructing 11 new oil storage facilities, ensuring that the country can maintain normal operations for six months without imports, surpassing the international safety standard of three months [11] - The country has established standardized grain storage facilities with a total capacity exceeding 730 million tons, sufficient to feed over 1.4 billion people for more than two years [13] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the need for individuals to align their investment strategies with national resource accumulation, focusing on stability and gradual growth [13][21] - Two investment categories are highlighted: high-dividend assets, which provide stable cash flow and lower risk, and technology stocks, particularly those aligned with national strategic plans [15][17] - The importance of a diversified investment approach is stressed, advising against concentrating all investments in one sector to mitigate risks [19][21]
芯片巨头,大涨!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-29 00:46
英特尔大涨超10%。 周五(11月28日),美国股市三大指数连续第五个交易日上涨。 截至收盘,道琼斯工业指数涨0.61%,报47716.42点;标普500指数涨0.54%,报6849.09点;纳斯达克综合指数涨 0.65%,报23365.69点。本周,道琼斯工业指数涨3.18%,标普500指数涨3.73%,纳斯达克综合指数涨4.91%。11月, 道琼斯工业指数涨0.32%,标普500指数涨0.13%,纳斯达克综合指数跌1.51%。 美股上市的大型科技股多数上涨,脸书涨超2%,亚马逊、微软涨超1%,特斯拉、苹果、谷歌小幅上涨;英伟达跌逾 1%。 芯片股普遍上涨,费城半导体指数涨1.82%,英特尔涨超10%,美光科技、ARM涨超2%,阿斯麦、超威半导体、高通 等涨超1%。 英特尔创9月18日以来最大单日涨幅。据媒体报道称,知名苹果分析师表示,预计英特尔将开始出货苹果公司最低端的 M系列处理器,最早可能在2027年开始。 黄金股表现强劲,泛美白银涨超7%,科尔黛伦矿业涨逾6%,美国黄金涨超5%,金罗斯黄金、埃尔拉多黄金涨超2%。 美国股市的反弹主要始于上周五,当时纽约联储主席、美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)副 ...
感恩节美股提前收官:三大指数齐飞,黄金白银飙升,降息预期“拉满”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-29 00:42
11月28日,受感恩节假期影响,美股提前3小时收盘,然而临近收盘时,三大指数却集体发力拉升,为 市场带来了一波惊喜。当日,三大指数连续第五个交易日实现集体收涨,其中纳指涨幅达0.65%,道指 上涨0.61%,标普500指数也有0.54%的涨幅。 从本周整体表现来看,三大指数的涨势更为显著。纳指本周累计上涨4.91%,道指累计上涨3.18%,标 普500指数累计上涨3.73%,市场呈现出强劲的上升态势。 科技股板块表现亮眼,多数个股纷纷走高。英特尔收盘时涨幅达到10%,创下自9月18日以来的最大单 日涨幅;Meta涨幅超过2%,AMD、亚马逊、奈飞、微软等科技巨头涨幅均超过1%,展现出科技股的 强大活力。 热门中概股也多数上涨,纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.54%。其中,小鹏汽车涨幅超过3%,京东涨幅超 过1%,哔哩哔哩、蔚来、百度等也有小幅上涨,为中概股市场增添了一抹亮色。 国际金价和银价更是上演了一场"狂飙"大戏。现货黄金涨幅超过1%,成功站上4200美元/盎司的高位; 现货白银更是大幅上扬,向上触及56美元/盎司,大涨近5%,纽约期银也一度大涨超5%,金银市场的火 爆行情吸引了众多投资者的目光。 消息面上, ...
美股11月收官:标普500指数、道指月线7连涨!礼来飙升24.82%,英伟达大跌逾12%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-28 23:26
Core Insights - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.54% on the last trading day of November, marking a cumulative increase of 0.13% for the month, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.61% with a monthly gain of 0.32%. The Nasdaq, however, saw a rise of 0.65% but recorded a cumulative decline of 1.51% for November [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both achieved a seven-month consecutive increase, while the Nasdaq experienced its first monthly decline in seven months [1] - Notable technology stocks showed varied performance in November: - Eli Lilly rose by 24.82%, marking its third consecutive month of gains and maintaining a market cap above $1 trillion - Alphabet Class A (Google A) increased by 13.87%, achieving its eighth consecutive month of growth - Broadcom rose by 9.02%, also for the eighth consecutive month - Micron Technologies increased by 5.68%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains - Apple rose by 3.24%, achieving its sixth consecutive month of growth - Meta Platforms saw a slight decline of 0.06%, marking its fourth consecutive month of losses - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) fell by 2.97% - Amazon decreased by 4.5% - Microsoft dropped by 4.8% - Tesla declined by 5.78% - Nvidia experienced a significant drop of 12.59% [1] Market Capitalization - The top ten companies by market capitalization in the U.S. stock market currently include Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet Class A, Alphabet Class C, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta, TSMC, and Tesla [1]
港股11月平稳收官 三大指数周线齐涨
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-28 13:46
港股11月平稳收官 三大指数周线齐涨 中新社香港11月28日电 (记者 戴小橦)11月24日至28日全周,港股三大指数集体上涨。截至28日收盘, 香港恒生指数本周累计上涨2.53%,报25858.89点;香港恒生科技指数累计上涨3.77%,报5599.11点; 国企指数累计上涨2.36%,报9130.18点。 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:王永乐 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview"),看更多精彩财经资讯。 11月28日,香港恒生指数收市报25858.89点,下跌87.04点,跌幅为0.34%,全天成交金额为1462.04亿港 元。 中新社记者 李志华 摄 中国工商银行(亚洲)证券业务部分析员叶泽恒在接受中新社记者采访时表示,港股当周呈现先跌后升走 势,但恒生科技指数仍处于相对低位徘徊。由于科技股在恒生指数中权重较高,其表现转强将成为推动 港股向上突破的关键因素,若科技板块持续好转,有望带动大市进一步上行。 回顾全月,港股11月平稳收官,恒生 ...