Group 1: Domestic Macro Economic Analysis - The domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is expected to start smoothly, with significant achievements in high-quality development. The economic growth target is anticipated to remain around 5% [3] - The fiscal policy is likely to maintain a proactive tone, with a projected government budget deficit rate of 4% and new special bond issuance of 4.4-5 trillion yuan [4] - Monetary policy is expected to continue a supportive stance, with potential for 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 1-2 interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points [4] Group 2: International Macro Economic Analysis - The U.S. economy is projected to stabilize in 2026, supported by a resumption of fiscal expansion, with the deficit rate expected to return to 6.5% [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, despite inflation remaining sticky [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The A-share market is viewed positively, with macro factors such as market valuation, fundamental recovery, and supportive policies likely to strengthen A-shares [6] - The growth style is currently overvalued, but opportunities remain in the technology manufacturing sector driven by the AI wave [6] - Focus on high-prosperity sectors such as the technology industry and materials with improved supply-demand dynamics is recommended [6] Group 4: Bond Market and Commodity Outlook - The bond market is expected to have limited overall odds, with yields likely to remain in a low volatility range [8] - Commodities like copper and gold are anticipated to rise, supported by resilient U.S. demand and domestic policy measures [8]

金融类 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 昨日，A股市场震荡回调，有色和TMT板块跌幅居前。Wind全A下跌0.64%，成交额1.61万亿元，中证 1000指数下跌1%，中证500指数下跌0.87%，沪深300指数下跌0.48%，上证50指数下跌0.51%。随着6月 以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以AI为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来 三年的增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显，中期 盈利能力可观。但是，对应题材自6月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自11月逐渐 进入震荡行情。另一方面，以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存 在一些补涨的逻辑，但短期很难进入基本面牛市。海外科技股同样存在预期分化，英伟达业绩指引继续 强劲，谷歌也发布了升级版大模型，但AI应用层持续盈利能力受到质疑。随着美联储主席换届临近， 2026年如能超预期降息可能继续推动科技板块强势运行。在此背景下，市场成交量和波动率逐渐降低， 风险偏好下降，预计指数短期以震荡为主。 国债： 昨日国债期货收盘， ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $87,000 for the first time since April 2025, reflecting a broader trend of selling pressure in risk assets due to changing expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate policies [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell sharply, reaching a low of $83,786, marking an 8% drop in a single day [1]. - As of December 2, Bitcoin was priced at $86,378, down 5%, while Ethereum fell below $2,800, down 6.36% [5]. - Other cryptocurrencies like XRP, BNB, and Solana also saw declines exceeding 6% [5]. - Over the past 24 hours, more than 270,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $985 million, predominantly from long positions [5]. Market Trends - Since reaching a historical high of $126,250 in early October, Bitcoin has retraced over 30% in value, erasing all gains made in 2025 [5]. - The market has been under continuous selling pressure for several weeks, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Federal Reserve Impact - The expectation for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to increased pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [2][6]. - Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation have contributed to uncertainty about future monetary policy [2][6]. Institutional Dynamics - There has been a notable shift in market participant structure, with an increase in institutional investment, suggesting that future price movements will be more influenced by fundamentals and data rather than short-term sentiment [3][6]. - Since September, large investors have sold over $20 billion in crypto assets, indicating a trend of de-leveraging among retail investors [6]. Price Projections - Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, it could trigger further sell-offs, with a potential target price near $74,000, indicating about 30% downside risk from current levels [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's hawkish signals have triggered a global bond market sell-off, leading to rising yields in major economies and impacting high-risk assets like Bitcoin [1][3]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a rate hike in December, aiming to raise rates to 0.75% before discussing future paths [1][3]. - Following Ueda's statements, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.07 percentage points to 1.87%, reflecting expectations of monetary policy normalization [3]. Group 2: Global Market Reactions - The shift in Japan's interest rate expectations has caused a ripple effect in the global fixed income market, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experiencing its largest single-day increase in a month [4]. - Concerns arise that rising Japanese bond yields may lead domestic investors to withdraw funds from foreign government bonds, reducing demand [4]. Group 3: Impact on Risk Assets - The increase in yields for safe-haven assets has pressured risk assets, with Bitcoin dropping 5.5% in a single day and over 20% in the past month [2][6]. - The tech sector in the U.S. was notably affected, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 0.4% and the S&P 500 down by 0.5% [2][6]. Group 4: Liquidity and Trading Strategies - The unwinding of carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yield currencies like the yen to invest in higher-yield assets, has intensified the sell-off in risk assets [5][6]. - The sell-off in bonds has led to a broader contraction in market risk appetite, affecting various sectors including technology and cryptocurrencies [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67% to close at 26,033.26 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.82% to 5,644.76 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 2.24%, Tencent up 1.31%, and JD Group up 0.52%. However, Xiaomi fell by 1.76% and Meituan dropped by 2.88% [1] - The metals sector saw significant gains, with China Nonferrous Mining rising over 13% [1] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks generally declined, with New Fire Technology Holdings down over 9% [1] Company News - Meituan reported Q3 revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but its core local business operating profit turned negative, resulting in a loss of 14.1 billion yuan [2] - China Gas reported revenue of 34.481 billion HKD and a profit of 1.334 billion HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025 [3] - Yingtong Holdings reported a revenue of 1.028 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.42%, but net profit increased by 15.4% to 133 million RMB [3] - Jihai Resources reported a revenue of 450 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, with a net profit of 88.127 million RMB, up 2.98% [3] - Yuhua Education reported annual revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 930 million RMB, up 133.2% [3] - Huitai Textile reported mid-term revenue of 2.524 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.72%, and a net profit of 79.322 million HKD, down 25.77% [3] - Huaxin Handbag International reported revenue of 432 million HKD, a year-on-year increase of 22.55%, and a profit of 48.262 million HKD, up 78.88% [4] Institutional Insights - GF Securities noted that the foundation for a bull market in Hong Kong stocks remains intact, but the evolution may present a "volatile upward, gradually rising" characteristic rather than a rapid increase [12] - Dongwu Securities indicated that short-term risk factors in Hong Kong stocks are decreasing, but a catalyst is needed for confirmation of a rebound [12] - Everbright Securities suggested that compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase [12] - CICC highlighted that dividends have become a preferred choice in the current market environment, with the banking sector rebounding nearly 10% since the end of September [13]

Market Overview - Global risk appetite has improved significantly, with major equity indices and commodities rising in tandem as of November 28, 2025[7] - Silver and copper prices have reached historical highs, with silver surpassing $56 per ounce and copper closing at $11,175.5 per ton[7] - The MSCI Global Index increased by 3.5%, with developed markets outperforming emerging and frontier markets[20] Equity Performance - Major U.S. indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.9% and the Russell 2000 increasing by 5.5%[20] - In emerging markets, the A-share market saw a 2.9% increase, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 both up by 4.5%[20] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively[20] Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening by 3.7 basis points to 0.42%[36] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising to 86.4%[37] Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as the South China and CRB rose by 2%, with 10 out of 13 major commodities recording price increases[55] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, dropping below 100, while the euro, pound, and yuan appreciated by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.4%, respectively[77] Risk Indicators - The implied offshore RMB exchange rate for gold has broken the 7 mark, indicating significant currency fluctuations[82] - Key risk indicators such as VIX and MOVE have shown a notable decline, reflecting reduced market volatility[7]

随着美股进入12月，华尔街交易员们又开始期待起每年一度的"圣诞老人行情"了。 所谓"圣诞老人行情"，是每年12月美股季节性的上涨行情。在每年感恩节之后，美股往往会持续上涨， 且波动性逐渐减弱，从而使得12月通常会成为美股全年表现最为出色的月份之一。 然而今年，一些策略师们表示，"圣诞老人"可能不会现身了。 今年"圣诞老人"不来了？ 每年年底，尤其是在12月的最后一周和1月的头几天，美股经常出现上涨的现象。这种上涨行情往往受 到多重因素的支撑：假日里投资者情绪更为乐观、假期里消费增加，以及年末假期内交易量往往较低， 市场更容易受看涨的散户投资者影响。 然而，加拿大皇家银行资本市场衍生品策略主管艾米·吴·西尔弗曼（Amy Wu Silverman）却预感，今年 的"圣诞老人行情"不会来，因为"今年过去的这些月份的美股表现都不符合季节性规律。" 今年年初至今，各种迹象表明，今年并非一个正常的市场周期：比如2月份，因DeepSeek开源AI模型的 横空出世导致美股科技股一度暴跌；4月份，美国总统特朗普出人意料宣布了广泛征收所谓"对等关 税"，再次引发美股普遍暴跌；还有过去几个月来，市场对人工智能高估值的担忧，为科技股 ...

港股上午盘三大指数集体上涨，恒生指数盘中一度冲高至1.24%，午间收涨0.81%重回26000点上方，国 企指数、恒生科技指数分别上涨0.64%及0.99%。大型科技股多数表现活跃，尤其是阿里巴巴涨超3%表 现相对强势；铜价新高，金价持续上涨，有色板块大爆发，五矿资源、中国黄金国际涨幅领先，苹果概 念股、半导体芯片股、港口及海运股普遍上涨。豆包手机助手已搭载在中兴的样机上，中兴通讯大涨超 11%表现抢眼。另外，中国央行首次重磅定调稳定币，加密货币概念股多数走低，泡泡玛特、蜜雪集 团、沪上阿姨等新消费概念股走低。(格隆汇) ...

Group 1: Strategic Resource Accumulation - The article discusses the importance of national strategic resource accumulation, particularly in uncertain global conditions, to ensure wealth security for the country and its citizens [1][8] - China has significantly increased its gold reserves, reportedly more than doubling them over the past decade, with unreported purchases potentially exceeding public data by over ten times [3][5] - The accumulation of gold serves as a financial safety net, especially during times of geopolitical instability and fluctuating trust in the US dollar [5][13] Group 2: Oil and Food Security - In the first ten months of the year, China imported 3.462 billion barrels of oil, accounting for 10% of global supply, which is more than Saudi Arabia's daily production [9][11] - China is constructing 11 new oil storage facilities, ensuring that the country can maintain normal operations for six months without imports, surpassing the international safety standard of three months [11] - The country has established standardized grain storage facilities with a total capacity exceeding 730 million tons, sufficient to feed over 1.4 billion people for more than two years [13] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the need for individuals to align their investment strategies with national resource accumulation, focusing on stability and gradual growth [13][21] - Two investment categories are highlighted: high-dividend assets, which provide stable cash flow and lower risk, and technology stocks, particularly those aligned with national strategic plans [15][17] - The importance of a diversified investment approach is stressed, advising against concentrating all investments in one sector to mitigate risks [19][21]

英特尔大涨超10%。 周五（11月28日），美国股市三大指数连续第五个交易日上涨。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.61%，报47716.42点；标普500指数涨0.54%，报6849.09点；纳斯达克综合指数涨 0.65%，报23365.69点。本周，道琼斯工业指数涨3.18%，标普500指数涨3.73%，纳斯达克综合指数涨4.91%。11月， 道琼斯工业指数涨0.32%，标普500指数涨0.13%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.51%。 美股上市的大型科技股多数上涨，脸书涨超2%，亚马逊、微软涨超1%，特斯拉、苹果、谷歌小幅上涨；英伟达跌逾 1%。 芯片股普遍上涨，费城半导体指数涨1.82%，英特尔涨超10%，美光科技、ARM涨超2%，阿斯麦、超威半导体、高通 等涨超1%。 英特尔创9月18日以来最大单日涨幅。据媒体报道称，知名苹果分析师表示，预计英特尔将开始出货苹果公司最低端的 M系列处理器，最早可能在2027年开始。 黄金股表现强劲，泛美白银涨超7%，科尔黛伦矿业涨逾6%，美国黄金涨超5%，金罗斯黄金、埃尔拉多黄金涨超2%。 美国股市的反弹主要始于上周五，当时纽约联储主席、美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副 ...