核心观点 【市场回顾】 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 20 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 周三，A 股缩量震荡，截至收盘，上证指数收涨 0.18%，报 3946.74 点，深证成指持平，创业板指涨 0.25%。沪深两市 A 股成交额约 1.73 万亿元人民币，超 3900 股下跌。申万行业方面，有色金属、石油石 化行业领涨，综合行业领跌；概念板块方面，中船系、金属铅概念涨 幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数收盘跌 0.38%，恒生科技指数跌 0.69%。美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.10%，标普500指数涨0.38%， 纳指涨 0.59%。欧洲股市涨跌不一，亚太股市多数收跌。 【重要新闻】 【京津冀签署自贸试验区全产业链协同创新行动方案】《京津冀自贸 试验区全产业链协同创新行动方案》19 日在天津签署，明确在先进 制造、数字经济、现代物流三大重点产业领域开展协同创新，标志着 三地自贸试验区在产业链协同、制度创新、政策联动等方面迈出实质 性步伐。根据行动方案，立足天津全国先进制造研发基地功能定位， 天 ...

Market Overview - On November 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.44%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.97%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.38% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 19 were non-ferrous metals (+2.39%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.67%), defense and military (+1.11%), beauty and personal care (+1.09%), and banking (+0.92%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-3.08%), real estate (-2.09%), media (-1.72%), building materials (-1.71%), and retail (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 19 was 17,426.66 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.591 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - In October 2025, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure slowed down due to a combination of factors: a phase of retreat following a preemptive fiscal push earlier in the year and a high base effect from the previous year [5] - The Ministry of Finance reported that fiscal policy implementation fell short of expectations, with hidden debts increasing beyond expectations [5] Strategic Research - The market outlook suggests a "systematic slow bull" phase, indicating a slower and more systematic market movement [6] - Inflation is expected to return, with a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors in 2026 [6] - The market remains neutrally optimistic, considering various factors such as international conditions, economic cycles, domestic policies, capital flows, market sentiment, and broad valuations [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to experience a gradual upward trend, with fluctuations expected between the high point in February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of the range from 5,178 to 2,440 [6]

Group 1 - The report aims to track large purchases and net active purchases through transaction detail data, building relevant indicators [1] - The top five industries for large purchases in the last five trading days are: Banking, Real Estate, Steel, Comprehensive, and Textile & Apparel [2] - The top five industries for net active purchases in the last five trading days are: Banking, Transportation, Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, and Oil & Petrochemicals [2] Group 2 - The top five ETFs for large purchases in the last five trading days are: Guotai CSI A500 ETF, Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury ETF, Harvest S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Selected Industry ETF, Southern Growth Enterprise Board AI ETF, and Hai Futong SSE Urban Investment Bond ETF [2] - The top five ETFs for net active purchases in the last five trading days are: Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury ETF, E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank ETF, Yinhua SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF, Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF, and Penghua CSI Liquor ETF [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% on November 19, with 10 industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and petroleum & petrochemicals, which increased by 2.39% and 1.67% respectively [1] - Conversely, the comprehensive and real estate sectors saw declines of 3.08% and 2.09%, with the comprehensive sector being the worst performer of the day [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 40.955 billion yuan across the two markets, with 7 industries experiencing net inflows [1] - The defense and military industry had the highest net inflow of 3.610 billion yuan, rising by 1.11%, followed by the banking sector with a 0.92% increase and a net inflow of 1.265 billion yuan [1] - A total of 24 industries faced net capital outflows, with the electronics sector leading with a net outflow of 7.580 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with 6.941 billion yuan [1] Comprehensive Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector declined by 3.08% with a net capital outflow of 46.4 million yuan, comprising 16 stocks, all of which fell, including 2 hitting the daily limit down [2] - Among the stocks in the comprehensive sector, Ningbo United saw the highest net inflow of 4.7328 million yuan, while Taida Co. had a net inflow of 1.7201 million yuan [2] - Nine stocks in the comprehensive sector experienced net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Yuegui Co. (191 million yuan), Zhangzhou Development (77.1612 million yuan), and Nanjing Xinbai (57.3389 million yuan) [2] Comprehensive Sector Capital Flow Rankings - The top three stocks with the largest net outflows included: - Yuegui Co.: -3.55% with a net outflow of 191.0275 million yuan [2] - Zhangzhou Development: -10.03% with a net outflow of 77.1612 million yuan [2] - Nanjing Xinbai: -3.18% with a net outflow of 57.3389 million yuan [2]

市 场 研 究 · 一 周 市 场 回 顾 · 证 券 研 究 报 告 一周市场回顾 （2025.11.10—2025.11.14） A 股市场： 融资融券： 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1 / 7 2025 年 11 月 19 日 一周市场回顾 证券研究报告-一周市场回顾 分析师：马遥识途 资格证书：S1330524050001 联系邮箱：mayst@hxzb.cn 联系电话：15201282186 相关研究 一 周 市 场 回 顾 （ 2025.11.03 — 2025.11.07） 2025.11.14 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.10.27 — 2025.10.31） 2025.11.03 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.10.20 — 2025.10.24） 2025.10.27 ◼ 本周 A 股上证指数下跌 0.18%，收于 3990.49 点，深证成指下跌 1.40%，收于 13216.03 点，创业板指下跌 3.01%，收于 3111.51 点。 价值风格类板块代表指数上证 50、中证 100、沪深 300 分别上涨 0.00%、下跌 0.80%、下跌 1.08%，成长风格类板块代表指数中小 1 ...

广东明珠11月18日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量799.93万股，成交金额5191.55万元，大宗交易成 交价为6.49元，相对今日收盘价折价9.61%。该笔交易的买方营业部为东北证券股份有限公司杭州教工 路证券营业部，卖方营业部为华福证券有限责任公司苏州分公司。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为3.15亿元，近5日减少2460.88万元，降幅为7.26%。 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万股） | （万元） | （元） | 溢价（%） | | | | 799.93 | 5191.55 | 6.49 | -9.61 | 东北证券股份有限公司杭州 | 华福证券有限责任公 | | | | | | 教工路证券营业部 | 司苏州分公司 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生4笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为2.32亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，广东明珠今日收盘价为7.18元，下跌0.42%，日换手率为2.24%，成交额为 1.12亿元，全天主力 ...

Core Insights - The Guangxi Autonomous Region has made significant strides in promoting high-quality development through practical measures and reforms, with a focus on enhancing the business environment and supporting the growth of enterprises [1][2][3] Group 1: Business Environment Optimization - As of October 2023, the total number of business entities in Guangxi reached 4.641 million, with 519,000 new registrations this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate increase of 5.7 percentage points [1] - The government has streamlined the process for starting a business by consolidating seven procedures into one, reducing required documents from 22 to 5, and cutting the number of steps from 13 to 2, achieving a "zero cost, one working day" completion time [1] - The introduction of the Guangxi Market Supervision Integration Platform has enabled 100% online processing of 234 market supervision services, resulting in a 60% reduction in overall processing time [1] Group 2: Support for Private Economy - Guangxi has implemented 21 measures across four areas to bolster the development of the private economy, including the establishment of 95 "individual business and private enterprise theme bank" service points, which have provided loans totaling 61.63 billion yuan to 84,000 small and micro enterprises [2] - The region has initiated differentiated support policies for individual businesses based on their classification, successfully nurturing 2,428 "specialized and innovative" individual businesses [2] - The introduction of the "Guangxi Market Supervision Service Supervision Card" and the "Entrepreneur-Friendly Service Guide" aims to enhance service delivery to businesses [2] Group 3: Regulatory Approach Transformation - Guangxi has pioneered the implementation of "warm law enforcement" guidelines in market regulation, creating lists for exemptions, reductions, and light penalties to minimize disruptions to normal business operations [2] - The region has optimized regulatory inspections, reducing the frequency of individual departmental checks by 30% and promoting a comprehensive inspection approach [2] - A credit classification management system for individual businesses has been established, resulting in the restoration of 135,000 credit records this year, alleviating the burden of "bad credit" for many enterprises [2] Group 4: Response Mechanism Enhancement - Starting in 2023, a problem response mechanism for business entities has been established, involving 6,529 departments and organizations across 14 cities and 120 industrial parks in Guangxi [3] - The mechanism has received 520,000 requests from businesses, achieving a resolution rate of 95.3%, which is an improvement of nearly 6 percentage points from the previous year [3] - Key issues addressed include the resolution of 639 million yuan in overdue payments and 189,000 cases related to social insurance and housing fund problems [3]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced significant differentiation this week, with major indices showing mixed results. The CSI A50 index rose by 0.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.18%. In contrast, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices fell by 3.01% and 3.85%, respectively [3][11] - The consumer sector led the market, with significant gains in the comprehensive sector (6.99%), textiles and apparel (4.41%), retail (4.06%), beauty and personal care (3.75%), and pharmaceuticals (3.29%). Conversely, the communication and electronics sectors both dropped by 4.77% [12][30] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model suggests a current market position leaning towards volatility, recommending a 10.4% allocation [15] - Personal investor sentiment has shown a slight recovery, with the sentiment index moving to 3.34% as of November 15, up from -1.9% on November 8 [20][22] - Financing sentiment fluctuated throughout the week, with financing transactions remaining stable and below 20% for four consecutive trading days [24] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The market is expected to continue its volatile pattern, with limited upward potential due to a lack of significant capital inflow and an increase in planned share reductions by listed companies [4][30] - The report suggests maintaining a growth style in investment strategy, focusing on sectors that meet the "turnaround + high growth" criteria, particularly in photovoltaic equipment and commercial industries positioned for growth [30]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、股票交易异常波动的情况介绍 山东胜利股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）股票（证券简称：胜利股份，证券代码： 000407）连续2个交易日（2025年11月13日、11月14日）收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，根据深圳 证券交易所的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动的情况。 二、关注、核实情况说明 针对股票异常波动情况，公司董事会就相关事项进行了核实，现将有关情况说明如下： 1.2025年11月10日，公司召开十一届七次董事会会议（临时），审议通过了《关于公司发行股份及支付 现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易方案的议案》《关于〈山东胜利股份有限公司发行股份及支付 现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易预案〉及其摘要的议案》等相关议案，具体内容详见公司于 2025年11月11日、11月12日刊登在巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）及指定信息披露媒体的相关 公告。 5.公司控股股东、实际控制人在股票交易异常波动期间不存在买卖公司股 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73% on November 13, with 27 industries experiencing gains, led by the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors, which increased by 4.31% and 4.01% respectively [1] - The comprehensive industry also ranked third in terms of daily gains, with a rise of 3.30% and a net inflow of 92.66 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The main capital inflow for the day was 24.471 billion yuan across the two markets, with 16 industries seeing net inflows [1] - The power equipment industry had the highest net inflow, totaling 11.478 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metals sector followed with a net inflow of 9.199 billion yuan [1] - Conversely, 15 industries experienced net outflows, with the public utilities sector leading at a net outflow of 1.534 billion yuan, followed by the construction and decoration industry with a net outflow of 999.3 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Performance - In the comprehensive industry, 15 out of 16 stocks rose, with one stock hitting the daily limit [2] - The top net inflow stock was Yatai Group, with a net inflow of 99.144 million yuan, followed by Nanjing Public Utilities and Yuegui Co., with net inflows of 44.4368 million yuan and 29.9882 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Sanmu Group, with a net outflow of 86.7756 million yuan, and Teli A, with a net outflow of 13.8257 million yuan [2]