Group 1: Report's Investment Rating on the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since 2020, there have been three main scenarios for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts: 1) RRR cuts change the market's expectation of the liquidity situation, catalyzing a decline in bond market interest rates; 2) RRR cuts do not significantly change market expectations and continue the bond market trend, with the yield curve steepening; 3) After RRR cuts, the market's expectation of the liquidity situation changes from loose to tight, and there is upward pressure on interest rates [6][53]. - The impact of RRR cuts on the bond market mainly includes: 1) After RRR cuts, the liquidity rate usually remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates are likely to decline, with the curve often showing a bull - steepening pattern; 2) In most cases, long - term interest rates decline with RRR cuts and liquidity easing, but there are two exceptions; 3) The scale of other tool injections after RRR cuts is positively correlated with the liquidity rate [6][54]. - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario, where it continues the bond market trend and increases the possibility of curve steepening. For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile [6][55]. Group 3: Summary Based on the Report's Content 1. Three Scenarios of RRR Cuts Since 2020 - **Scenario 1: Catalyzing Bond Market Interest Rate Decline** - RRR cuts occur after a significant seasonal increase in the liquidity rate. After the RRR cut, the central bank's net injection may decline or increase, but the liquidity rate will eventually return to stability or decline significantly, and long - term interest rates will decline due to the shift from tight to loose monetary expectations [6][53]. - Examples include July 2021, December 2021, December 2022, and March 2023. Before these RRR cuts, the DR007 central rate increased by more than 10bp compared to the historical average. After the RRR cuts, most of the central bank's other liquidity injection tools reduced their scale, and the liquidity rate returned to stability or declined significantly, and long - term interest rates also declined [10][13][18]. - **Scenario 2: Continuing the Bond Market Trend** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity. After the RRR cut, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreases or remains low, but the liquidity pressure can be effectively hedged. The liquidity rate remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates decline. The long - term interest rate depends on whether the fundamental expectation can be quickly improved, and there are opportunities to steepen the yield curve [6][53]. - Examples are April 2022, February 2024, and September 2024. After the RRR cuts, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreased, and the liquidity rate remained stable or declined. Short - term interest rates declined, and the impact on long - term interest rates was uncertain, but there were opportunities to steepen the curve [23][28][30]. - **Scenario 3: Upward Pressure on Interest Rates After RRR Cuts** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity, and are accompanied by a significant increase in other liquidity injections. Usually due to factors such as the Spring Festival and high government bond supply, the liquidity rate increases in the month of the RRR cut. The interest rate trend depends on the persistence of the liquidity tightening [6][53]. - Examples are January 2020 and September 2023. After the RRR cuts, the central bank maintained a high - scale injection, but the liquidity rate still increased. The bond market trend depends on the duration of the liquidity tightening [39][42][47]. 2. Comparison of the Current RRR Cut with Historical Scenarios - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario. Since April, the market's expectation of loose money has been restored. In May, although the net financing of interest - bearing bonds has increased marginally, the bank's liability pressure has eased. If the liquidity rate remains stable during the current period, short - term rates such as certificate of deposit (CD) rates may decline further in June [6][55]. - For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile. The RRR cut did not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity or a significant decline in the capital market, and the impact on the market's liquidity expectation is limited. The probability of significant weakening or strengthening of the fundamental expectation after the RRR cut is low [6][55].

新加坡瀚亚投资：美国经济不确定性推动资金流向新兴市场 瑞讯银行：美国国债收益率受财政政策与全球资本行为主导 SMBC日兴证券：日本7月参议院选举结果或影响超长债收益率 汉堡商业银行：法国制造业温和回升德国服务业衰退拖累经济 【机构分析】 新加坡瀚亚投资公司称，美国经济不确定性将促使对新兴市场国家进行多元化投资，多元化投资有助于 分散风险并可能提供更丰富的回报。 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞讯银行策略师指出，美国国债收益率的未来走势将主要受美国的财政选择以及全球投资者的行为影 响。地缘政治关系的恶化、对美元兴趣的减少以及对美国国债作为避险资产信心的下降等，这些都可能 削弱市场对美国国债的信心。 市场分析称，如果美国实施一项削弱美元价值的计划，可能会导致违约风险增加；这样的行动可能导致 巨大的市场波动，对全球经济造成冲击。如果美元大幅贬值，其幅度和速度可能超过1985年广场协议后 的贬值情况（当时美元在九个月内贬值了25%，三年内几乎贬值了一半）；当前美国的债务规模远超以 往，政策制定者还在计划进一步增加债务，这使得美元贬值的影响更加复杂。 SMBC日兴证券策略师指出，日本7月即将举行的参议院选举可能是影响超长期限 ...

四部门重磅发声。 2025年5月22日(星期四)下午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，请科技部副部长邱勇，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新，金融监管总局 新闻发言人、政策研究司司长郭武平，中国证监会首席风险官、发行监管司司长严伯进介绍科技金融政策有关情况，并答记者问。 朱鹤新在回答证券时报记者提问时表示，希望推动加大科技金融的风险补偿力度。财政政策对于激励引导金融机构支持科技创新具有重要作用。央行将配 合好财政部门，用好用足贷款贴息、风险补偿等政策，有效发挥政府性融资担保体系的作用。 来看看发布会具体内容： 科技部 将充分发挥牵头部门作用进一步细化构建科技金融体制任务分工 邱勇表示，近日，科技部等七部门印发《政策举措》。希望通过该文件建立金融支持科技创新的长效投入机制。通过该文件形成科技金融发展的政策框架 体系，完善激励约束机制，在金融资本和科技创新之间搭起一座纽带和桥梁，构建多元化、多层次、多渠道的科技投入格局，持续引导金融活水浇灌科技 创新的沃土。 依托创新积分制已推动7000多家科技型企业与银行签约贷款合同 邱勇表示，此前推出的"创新积分制"可以帮助金融机构更加精准地识别科技创新企业，识别企业的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint release of the "Policies and Measures to Accelerate the Construction of a Science and Technology Financial System" aims to support high-level technological self-reliance and innovation through 15 specific financial policies targeting venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Venture Capital and Financing - Establishment of a "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" to enhance the entire chain of venture capital, including fundraising, investment, management, and exit strategies [2]. - Encouragement for the development of secondary market funds for venture capital to improve exit channels [2]. - Optimization of the evaluation mechanism for state-owned venture capital to enhance its effectiveness in supporting technological innovation [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - Utilization of structural monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in increasing credit support for technology enterprises, particularly private SMEs [3]. - Expansion of re-loan programs for technological innovation and technology transformation, with a focus on optimizing structure, increasing scale, and reducing interest rates [3]. - Encouragement for commercial banks to establish specialized technology finance institutions to facilitate easier access to loans for technology enterprises [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Support - Establishment of a "green channel" mechanism for technology enterprises in the capital market, enhancing the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [3]. - Introduction of a "Technology Board" in the bond market to raise long-term, low-interest, and easily accessible bond funds for technological innovation [3][6]. Group 4: Technology Insurance Development - Development of high-quality technology insurance policies to provide risk-sharing and compensation for technology enterprises [4]. - Establishment of a comprehensive technology insurance product and service system covering the entire innovation cycle [4]. - Exploration of a co-insurance mechanism for major technological breakthroughs to support national key technology tasks [4][20]. Group 5: Regional Innovation Practices - Focus on key regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to pilot innovative technology finance policies [18]. - Encouragement for local governments and financial institutions to actively explore unique innovative practices in technology finance [18]. Group 6: Financial Institution Roles - Establishment of 2,178 technology branches nationwide to enhance financial support for high-level technological self-reliance [13][14]. - Implementation of a "345" technology finance service system, including policy, product supply, and professional organization frameworks [14][16]. Group 7: Bond Market Innovations - Nearly 100 institutions have issued technology innovation bonds exceeding 250 billion, with measures in place to support flexible issuance and simplified disclosure requirements [6][7]. - Creation of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds to lower financing costs and extend maturity periods [7]. Group 8: Capital Market Financing Trends - Significant increase in the number of strategic emerging industry companies listed, with over 2,700 companies representing more than 40% of market capitalization [9][10]. - Active mergers and acquisitions in the technology sector, with over 1,400 asset restructuring cases reported, marking a 40% year-on-year increase [10]. Group 9: Insurance Sector Contributions - Insurance industry provided approximately 9 trillion in technology insurance coverage, with over 600 billion invested in technology enterprises [20]. - Ongoing development of policies to optimize the technology insurance service system and enhance the role of insurance in supporting technological innovation [20].

新质生产力培育与壮大，既需要"仰望星空"的战略视野，也离不开"脚踏实地"的生态支撑。深圳市创新投资集团董事长左 丁表示，未来中国培育新兴产业要以人民币基金为主。人民币基金必须担负起历史使命，加速培育人工智能时代下的新技 术、新模式、新业态。同时，中国风投要持续加大投入，为中国原创提供充裕的耐心资本。 5月21日，第八届（2025）西湖大会在杭州举行。图为大会现场。宋春雨/摄 中国金融40人论坛学术顾问、重庆市原市长黄奇帆以《围绕三大赛道，着力推进新质生产力集群化发展》为题发表主旨演 讲。他提出，新质生产力发展路径有三大赛道，分别为增量、存量和生产性服务业。增量角度即新制造，过去几十年制造 业集群中较短缺的板块包括新能源、新材料、新人工智能、新生物医药和新高端装备，五大板块是五棵参天大树，每棵大 树上的每片树叶、每根树枝都可能代表一个重要行业；存量是指现有的工业产业体系也要进行技术改造和升级换代，用新 质生产力来发掘传统制造业的潜力，主要是对传统制造业进行绿色低碳改造和数字化改造; 生产性服务业则是新质生产力 的重要土壤，是推动制造业技术进步和经济增长的关键力量。 黄奇帆说："当前，中国生产性服务业在国内生产总 ...

【要闻报道】 美债要崩？20年期美债拍卖遇冷 需防范抛售潮对全球市场的冲击风险 自穆迪下调美国主权信用评级以来，美债市场走势牵动人心。北京时间5月22日凌晨，20年期美债标售 以相对惨淡的结果落下帷幕。本次拍卖的最终得标利率为5.047%，这是20年期美债拍卖的收益率第二 次突破5%大关。得标利率较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2个基点，创下去年12月以来的最大尾部利差。 疲软的投标倍数也引发关注，本次拍卖的投标倍数为2.46，是自2月以来的最低水平。 点评：分析认为，本次拍卖虽称不上"灾难性"，但其糟糕程度足以推高美债收益率。叠加减税法案扰 动，20年期美债收益率日内最高升至5.127%，30年期美债收益率也重新突破5%大关。 实施"六大行动"！上海发布提振消费专项行动方案 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于大力提振消费的决策部署，深化国际消费中心城市建设，切实发挥消费 对经济发展的基础性作用，近日，市政府办公厅印发《上海市提振消费专项行动方案》。《行动方案》 提出"城乡居民增收、消费能力保障支持、服务消费提质升级、大宗消费更新、新型消费培育、消费环 境提升"等六大行动和第七部分的"完善支持政策"。 点评：在新 ...

中国上市公司协会党委委员、副会长孙念瑞在致辞时表示，上市公司科技含量越来越高，是推动新质生 产力发展的主力军。统计显示，近五年，上市公司加大了对新技术、新产品的研发投入，整体研发强度 约为2.2%。他说，A股上市公司科技叙事的逻辑越来越清晰，聚集效应越来越明显，中国资产的配置价 值和吸引力正在持续提升。 孙念瑞表示，近年来，上市公司回报意识越来越强。2024年度，A股上市公司分红总额2.34万亿元，创 历史新高，平均股利支付率逾37%，1277家公司股利支付率超50%。分红回购已远超IPO、再融资和减 持总规模，投融资更加协调的市场生态正在加快形成。 新质生产力培育与壮大，既需要"仰望星空"的战略视野，也离不开"脚踏实地"的生态支撑。深圳市创新 投资集团董事长左丁表示，未来中国培育新兴产业要以人民币基金为主。人民币基金必须担负起历史使 命，加速培育人工智能时代下的新技术、新模式、新业态。同时，中国风投要持续加大投入，为中国原 创提供充裕的耐心资本。 证券时报记者张淑贤陈雨康 小满时节，钱塘江畔群贤毕至。5月21日，由证券时报社主办、中国上市公司协会支持的第八届 （2025）西湖大会在杭州举行。作为中国大资管领 ...

5月21日，和讯投顾投机大拿在今日市场分析中指出，国内再次降息，然而市场涨幅并不尽如人意，究 竟是投资者对降息推动A股上涨的预期过高，还是降息力度本身不足呢？投机大拿认为，回顾过去不难 发现利率已经从几年前的3%—4%降至如今的长期存款利率1.3%，然而A股指数仍然在3000点徘徊。如 果单纯认为降息一定会对A股形成利好，那么A股也不会在市场多年持续降息的背景下岿然不动了。 因此，投机大拿指出，很多投资者总是觉得踏不准节奏，其实是因为他们没有看懂政策背后的逻辑。有 时候，政策已经明确了方向，但许多投资者仍然看不到机会，不敢轻易下手。而当他们真正看到机会 时，市场已经完成了转换，当前股息和利息的差距已经非常明显。一方面，证监会鼓励上市公司分红； 另一方面，又为上市公司提供贷款增持自家股票的条件，只要上市公司具备盈利能力和条件，能够达到 分红要求的，实际上是在"白捡"利润。 在这种情况下，即使投资者自己不主动将存款流入股市，也会有其他资金代为流入。因此，从这个角度 来看，如果未来货币政策进一步宽松，这种入市的意愿一定会逐步上升。只要看懂了这个逻辑，未来市 场的方向就会变得清晰明朗，这也是投机大拿强调未来市场大概率 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese sovereign debt market is signaling caution to the central bank regarding the reduction of bond purchases, with investors avoiding government bond auctions and yields surging [1][2] - The 20-year Japanese government bond auction recorded the weakest demand in over a decade, highlighting the market's concerns about political instability and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's aggressive bond-buying program has led to the central bank holding over half of Japan's outstanding government bonds, raising concerns about the sustainability of this approach [4] Group 2 - The upcoming policy decision by the Bank of Japan on June 17 may test the current stance on bond purchases, as the Ministry of Finance plans to issue 40-year bonds [2] - The net supply of bonds has reached its highest level since 2010, driven by bond redemptions and central bank purchases, which could lead to price declines if the Bank of Japan reduces its buying [2] - Rising yields are adding new concerns for Japanese equity investors, as the stock market has already shown signs of pressure due to the increasing bond yields [2][3] Group 3 - Prime Minister Kishida has expressed reluctance to issue more bonds for budget financing, indicating uncertainty in economic measures despite the rising yields [3] - Some analysts view the recent rise in long-term yields as a potential reflection of economic normalization, which could support corporate earnings, although the overall economic fundamentals remain weak [3] - The Bank of Japan plans to reduce its bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen (approximately 2.8 billion USD) each quarter, which could lower the monthly purchase volume to about 2.9 trillion yen by the first quarter of next year [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" policy poses challenges to the global economic environment and financial market stability, prompting China to implement a series of macroeconomic policies to support economic growth [1] - In April, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced ten monetary policy measures to enhance macroeconomic control and support the real economy [1][3] - The interbank market showed resilience with a total transaction volume of 183.6 trillion yuan in April, reflecting a 4.7% month-on-month increase but a 2.6% year-on-year decrease [1] Group 2 - In April, the PBOC net injected 500 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and net withdrew 179.2 billion yuan through reverse repos, resulting in an overall net injection of 270.8 billion yuan for the month [2][3] - Major repo rates declined, with the weighted average of overnight repo rates (DR001 and R001) decreasing by 10 and 16 basis points respectively [2] Group 3 - The bond market saw an issuance of 4.96 trillion yuan in April, a 7.8% month-on-month increase and a 23% year-on-year increase, while net financing decreased by 7.9% month-on-month [4] - The issuance of special government bonds and central financial institution bonds is expected to increase supply pressure in May [4] Group 4 - The yield on government bonds decreased in April, with the 1-year to 30-year yields dropping between 8 and 20 basis points [5] - The credit bond yields also declined, while credit spreads widened, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [5] Group 5 - The interest rate swap curve shifted downward in April, with significant decreases in the swap rates for various maturities [6] - The average daily transaction volume in the RMB interest rate swap market decreased, indicating a reduction in trading activity [6]