Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth slowed down in 2025 with a decline in quarterly GDP growth rates. Consumption was stable supported by policies, net - export performance exceeded expectations, and investment was the weakest contributor. The economic logic changed from high real growth with deflation in the first half to deflation repair with output deceleration in the second half. The "anti - involution" policy was a major influencing factor [2][5][90]. - In 2026, the inventory cycle is expected to recover, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half, and the internal driving force will strengthen. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the slowdown of de - globalization will improve external demand. The real output growth rate will rise steadily, and supply - demand will re - balance [2][5][90]. - The government is likely to set the target of the annual real GDP growth rate at around 5.0% in 2026. Deflation will gradually turn into weak inflation, and the nominal GDP growth rate will improve significantly, which will be the foundation for the improvement of corporate revenue, profits, fiscal revenue, and household income in the long - term [2][5][90]. - The commodity market will continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner in 2026. In the first half, supply constraints and the "anti - involution" narrative will boost new energy and non - ferrous metals. In the second half, the structural market may turn into a systematic one, with a more widespread rise in prices and a reduction in the differences among industrial products. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [2][87][91]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Economic Highlights in 2026 May Lie in Nominal Growth 1. External Disturbances End, the Cycle Hits Bottom, and Supply - Demand Will Re - balance - In 2025, industrial added - value growth was stable, and nominal output first declined and then rebounded. The economic growth logic in the second half was different from that in the first half. High - tech and equipment manufacturing industries had the fastest growth rates. The semiconductor industry output was concentrated upstream. The main problem was the imbalance between supply and demand due to weak external and internal demand [15]. - The inventory cycle is expected to recover in 2026, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions will improve external demand. High - tech manufacturing will remain strong, while traditional industries will have limited upward space [15][16]. 2. Weakening Financial Support Leads to a Temporary Slowdown in Investment Growth - In 2025, the investment growth rate continued to slow down, becoming a major drag on domestic demand. By November, the real cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased to 1.5%, and the nominal year - on - year growth rate dropped to - 1.7% [19]. - Infrastructure investment was weaker than expected, mainly affected by the amount and timing of funds. Manufacturing investment was generally stable, supported by monetary and fiscal policies. The negative impact of Sino - US trade conflicts on manufacturing investment confidence will gradually weaken. Real estate investment was the main drag, with a cumulative decline of nearly 15%. The real estate market sales were poor, and the industry's capital chain was weak. In the long - term, the real estate industry is difficult to return to the upward cycle [19][20][22]. 3. Subsidies Are the Main Support for Consumption, and Income Should Be Concerned in the Long - Term - In 2025, consumption growth first accelerated and then slowed down. The main influencing factor was the subsidy policy, with a total of 300 billion yuan invested, double that of 2024. The decline in consumption growth was mainly due to the reduction in subsidies. The long - term consumption trend depends on income growth, including passive and active income improvement and wage income improvement. Endogenous consumption repair may occur in the second half of 2026 [24]. 4. The Foreign Trade Environment Will Improve in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports exceeded expectations. Sino - US trade was affected by the trade war, with four stages of tariff adjustments. The overall export structure showed an upward trend in emerging industries and a downward trend in traditional labor - intensive industries. The trade surplus continued to reach new highs [28]. - In 2026, exports are expected to maintain growth, especially in the second half. Imports will gradually accelerate with the domestic inventory - building process. The contribution of foreign trade to the economy will increase [28]. Part 2: Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation, Increasing Support for Nominal Growth 1. The Driving Logic of CPI Changes, and Core CPI Rises Steadily - In 2025, CPI fluctuated around 0, and core CPI continued to rise, reaching about 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Food prices were mainly affected by seasonality, and pork prices had a negative impact on CPI. Oil prices also dragged down CPI. Core CPI reflected the structural changes in the domestic consumer market and the rise in international gold prices [45]. - In 2026, the pig cycle will have a small positive impact on food prices, and oil price drag will decrease. Core CPI will continue to improve with economic recovery, and its central value may rise to around 0.5% [45]. 2. The Low Point of PPI Has Passed, and Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation - In 2025, PPI first declined and then rebounded. The main factors were imported deflation and industrial supply - demand imbalance. High - tech manufacturing prices were stable, which was a key factor in stabilizing PPI. In the second half, the negative factors eased [48]. - In 2026, the global economy will improve cyclically, and PPI is likely to turn positive. The new price - increasing momentum will gradually strengthen, and PPI will change from a drag to a driver of the GDP deflator [48]. Part 3: Loose Fiscal Policy Remains the Pillar, and "Anti - Involution" Enhances Economic Resilience 1. Loose Monetary Policy, and the Risk - Free Yield May Remain Stable - In 2025, the central bank's monetary policy was loose, with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in May. Government financing was the main factor affecting macro - liquidity in the second and third quarters, and "anti - involution" supported the liquidity of upstream and mid - stream enterprises. The growth rate of broad social financing slowed down in the fourth quarter [54]. - In 2026, fiscal increment will still have the strongest impact on macro - liquidity. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 10BP and reserve requirement ratio by 25BP. The risk - free yield may remain volatile [54]. 2. Budgetary Revenue Stabilizes, and Broad Fiscal Policy Shows Structural Improvement - In 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates recovered. Tax revenue was stable and increased, while land transfer revenue was low, dragging down the broad fiscal situation. Fiscal expenditure on infrastructure was affected by policies, and the fiscal deficit increased significantly [60]. - In 2026, fiscal policy will remain proactive. Broad fiscal policy will show structural improvement, mainly driven by the improvement of nominal growth and accelerated net financing. The degree of real estate recovery in the second half will be a decisive factor [61]. 3. "Anti - Involution" Is the Largest Policy Increment and Will Continue to Affect the Economy - The "anti - involution" policy was introduced in 2025 to address deflation, supply - demand imbalance, and local government incentive mechanism problems. It mainly focused on emerging industries with over - capacity and price wars [69][70]. - In 2026, the implementation of "anti - involution" policies will continue, improving corporate revenues, especially for upstream enterprises. The policy will focus on optimizing the supply - side structure, and future demand - side policies are important to watch [71]. Part 4: The Renminbi Will Maintain a Relatively Strong Position Against the US Dollar - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate was generally slightly bullish. Against the US dollar, it showed an appreciating trend with a three - stage pattern. The main reasons were the increase in foreign - related net receipts and bank customer net settlement of foreign exchange, as well as the central bank's policy to maintain exchange rate stability [76]. - In 2026, the RMB is likely to continue to appreciate against the US dollar, with the high point expected around 6.7. However, the appreciation space of the exchange rate index is limited due to factors such as stable foreign trade [76][77]. Part 5: The Commodity Market Will Continue to Rebound in an Oscillatory Manner - In 2025, most domestic commodity futures prices declined, with increased differentiation. In the first and second quarters, prices fell, and in the third quarter, they rebounded due to the "anti - involution" policy. In the fourth quarter, most prices oscillated or declined again. Different commodity sectors had different performances [84]. - In 2026, the commodity market will continue to rebound. In the first half, new energy and non - ferrous metals will be boosted, and in the second half, the market may turn into a systematic one. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation, and precious metals will maintain an upward trend [87][91]. Part 6: Full - Text Summary and Outlook for 2026 - The economic situation in 2025 was weak, with consumption as the main support, net - export exceeding expectations, and investment being the weakest. The economic logic changed in the second half of the year, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact [89][90]. - In 2026, the economy is expected to improve with the recovery of the inventory cycle, the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and the improvement of external demand. The government may set the real GDP growth target at around 5.0%. Deflation will turn into weak inflation, and the commodity market will continue to rebound [90][91].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" and the rating has been maintained [3]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes balancing market stability, risk prevention, and transformation in the real estate sector. The focus has shifted from urgent measures to stabilize the market to a more balanced approach aimed at long-term risk resolution and high-quality development [6][7]. - The probability of large-scale, nationwide support policies for the real estate market is low, with "city-specific policies" becoming the main theme. The focus is on local governments as the main implementers of policies [6][7]. - The role of real estate has transitioned from driving economic growth to risk prevention and social welfare, highlighting the sector's importance in social security and housing attributes [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The investment suggestion indicates that the real estate policy environment in 2026 will seek a balance between market stability, risk prevention, and transformation, with a moderately positive but more rational and structured policy environment [6][7]. - Short-term focus should be on the implementation pace and scale of "stock housing acquisition policies," which will be crucial for market sentiment and improving liquidity for real estate companies [7]. Policy Directions - The core policy measures include controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, with an emphasis on acquiring existing housing for social housing and promoting the construction of quality homes [6][7]. - The new development model aims to enhance the quality of housing rather than merely expanding scale, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in the industry [6][7].

CMG 与 ChinaJoy 国际版同期亮相阿布扎比 BRIDGE 峰会 2025 BRIDGE 峰会在阿布扎比国家展览中心开幕，全球媒体与科技机构齐聚探讨数字内容、技术融合与未来产业趋势。中国元素集中亮相：中央广播电视 总台（CMG）作为重点展示单位，全面呈现 8K 超高清制作播出、AI 辅助编辑、智能内容生产与多语种数字传播等创新成果，展示中国在国际传播技术领 域的领先实力。同期，ChinaJoy 国际版——首届"国际中国游戏节"正式登场，这是亚洲最大游戏与数字娱乐展会首次以国际版形式出海阿联酋。以"与 AI 同 游"为主题，本届展区集结腾讯游戏、游戏科学、505 Games、悲鸿美术馆、模言文化等20余家行业代表企业，覆盖研发、发行、IP运营与科技应用全链条。 （阿通社） 阿布扎比启动 FIDA 计划，推动 GDP 增长、吸引投资与创造高技能就业岗位 阿布扎比宣布启动全新金融集群——金融科技、保险、数字与另类资产（FIDA）集群，以加强其在金融科技、保险、数字资产和另类投资等领域的全球竞 争力。该计划在2025年阿布扎比金融周期间发布，并获阿布扎比王储、行政委员会主席 Sheikh Khaled bin ...

与此同时，二手房市场呈现以价换量扩大化态势。百城二手房挂牌均价同比下跌8.59%，挂牌量增至 267.8万套，同比上升7.8%，新一线城市挂牌量增幅高达10.13%，平均挂牌时长拉长至94.72天，价格承 压明显。值得关注的是，存量房市场正逐步占据更重要的地位。安居客数据显示，11月二手房找房人数 占比已连续五个月上升，占比达65.8%。 市场信心方面出现一些积极信号。根据58安居客研究院12月的在线调研，2026年明确计划买房的用户占 比达34.61%，较年中调研提升11.63个百分点；持币观望用户占比降至33.56%，降幅超15个百分点，市 场观望情绪有所缓解。 张波认为，未来在政策托底下，刚需有望在核心城市率先释放，市场有望呈现二手房量价齐稳、新房核 心改善企稳的趋势。在"十五五"规划的指引下，清理住房消费不合理限制、推动好房子建设将成为房地 产行业的重要方向。房地产将逐步过渡到高质量发展阶段，房企竞争将更加聚焦于品质，适老型住房、 绿色智能住宅等产品占比或提升，以匹配人口老龄化与家庭小型化的需求趋势。 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。其中，北京、上 海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing significant challenges, the Chinese economy demonstrates strong resilience, leading the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 5% and 4.5%, respectively, driven by robust exports and effective macroeconomic stimulus measures [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has increased its growth expectations for China, attributing this to strong exports and favorable macroeconomic policies [1]. - The IMF estimates that China's contribution to global growth is approximately 30%, indicating the importance of a balanced Chinese economy for global economic health [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - The IMF expressed concerns regarding three main areas: weak domestic demand, consumer confidence under pressure, and high government and corporate debt [4][5]. - To address these challenges, the IMF recommends implementing a comprehensive macroeconomic policy package and increasing exchange rate flexibility [5]. - The IMF suggests that enhancing social security systems could boost consumer confidence and spending, potentially increasing GDP by up to 3% [5]. Group 3: Real Estate Sector - The prolonged adjustment in the real estate sector has negatively impacted local government finances and consumer confidence, contributing to weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures [6]. - The IMF advises that approximately 5% of GDP should be allocated to revitalize the real estate market to restore consumer confidence and encourage spending [6]. - The IMF supports the Chinese government's efforts to transition from an export and investment-driven economy to one focused on domestic consumption [6]. Group 4: Innovation and Development - The IMF acknowledges China's increasing investment in research and development, positioning itself as an innovation-driven economy [6]. - China ranks first among emerging markets in the IMF's "Artificial Intelligence Readiness Index," highlighting its advancements in digital infrastructure and regulatory frameworks [6].

岁末年初，聚焦中国经济发展方向的中央经济工作会议于12月10日至11日成功举行，为来年经济发展锚定方向，意义深远。官媒发布的会议通稿中，第八条 任务部署与房地产行业息息相关，引发市场高度关注。 通篇研读，会议精神直指房地产市场稳定，强调因城施策，从控增量、去库存、优供给等多维度发力。鼓励收购存量商品房，并将其转化为保障性住房，同 时深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推进"好房子"建设，加快构建房地产发展新模式。 这一系列举措，无疑为深陷调整期的房地产行业指明了方向。自2021年下半年以来，房地产行业面临前所未有的挑战，曾经的增长预期转变为对风险的防范 与化解。房地产作为国民经济的支柱产业，其稳定关乎全局。一旦房地产领域出现风险，将波及上下游产业链，甚至可能引发金融系统性风险，其重要性不 言而喻。 那么，如何化解房地产风险？今年的中央经济工作会议给出了明确路径：去库存是重中之重。房地产企业一旦面临库存积压，资金链如同被阻塞的血管，无 法正常循环，其连锁反应不容忽视。无法回款，企业将面临资金链断裂的危机；无法偿还贷款，银行不良资产增加；无法支付工资，员工利益受损，人才流 失加剧；无法支付供应商款项，影响产业链稳定；无法 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: December 15, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC No.: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows overall decline in production heat, marginal drop in property transactions, general downward trend in prices, and significant fall of the Baltic Dry Index. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][34] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.72 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 1.53 pct, and rebar output decreased by 10.53 tons. Inventory decreased by 1.88 tons [10] - Petroleum Asphalt: Operating rate decreased by 0.1 pct and remained at a low level [10] - Chemicals: PX and PTA operating rates remained flat [10] - Automobile Tires: All - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.57 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.65 pct [11] Demand - Real Estate: Property transaction area declined, inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land supply area continued to fall from a high level, and residential land transaction premium rate decreased [16] - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 720 million yuan compared to the previous week [16] - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 83,000 units, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 143,000 units [20] - Shipping Freight Rates: SCFI index increased by 7.79%, CCFI index increased by 0.29%, and BDI index dropped significantly by 19.14% [22] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price dropped by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel, and coking coal futures price fell by 11.72% to 1,028.5 yuan per ton [24] - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.96%, - 0.88%, and + 1.31% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price fell by 2.97% [25] - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.96%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.02%, + 0.67%, + 0.34%, and + 2.02% respectively compared to the previous week [27] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai [30] - Flight Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decreased [32] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [32] Summary - Overall production heat declined, and commodity prices fell. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [34]

安伟强调，要认真践行人民城市理念，强化"三标"引领，以推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持内涵式 发展为主线，以高效能治理为保障，以推动城市更新为重要抓手，大力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、 品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，加快打造具有时代特征、中原特色、国际风采的现代化人 民城市。要着力构建"一平台两中心组团式网络化"城镇格局，加快建设富有活力的创新郑州、舒适便利 的宜居郑州、绿色低碳的美丽郑州、安全可靠的韧性郑州、崇德向善的文明郑州、便捷高效的智慧郑 州。要聚焦聚力、攻坚克难，着力提升城市更新工作质效，加快完善防洪排涝体系，推动房地产高质量 发展、"文旅城"深度融合发展，不断提升城市国际化水平。 12月13日，市委城市工作会议召开，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于城市工作的重要论述和在河南考察 时重要讲话精神，落实中央和省委城市工作会议部署，引导全市上下准确把握形势任务，加快转变城市 发展方式，围绕"创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧"，打造具有时代特征、中原特色、国际风采的 现代化人民城市。省委常委、市委书记安伟出席会议并讲话。 市委副书记、市长庄建球主持会议。市领导周富强、杜新军、路云、陈明、陈宏伟、虎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is expected to undergo a "major reset" by 2026, with gradual recovery in housing sales and normalization of prices, although affordability remains a challenge for many young buyers [1][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. have stabilized below 6.3%, currently at 6.22%, indicating a trend towards easing [1]. - Redfin's annual outlook report suggests that housing sales will gradually rebound, with prices becoming more normalized and affordability slowly improving [1][6]. - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts a 14% increase in existing home sales and a 4% rise in home prices by 2026, with mortgage rates expected to drop to around 6% [6]. Group 2: Regional Market Dynamics - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of significant differentiation, with some areas remaining strong while others are experiencing a slowdown [3]. - In New York City, while overall transactions are weak, desirable properties still attract competitive bids, particularly in areas with limited supply [3][4]. - Florida's market is cooling down from the pandemic highs, with a stable demand from first-time buyers and a decrease in investor activity due to high mortgage rates [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - International investors are shifting focus away from the U.S. due to high financing costs and policy uncertainties, with many opting for cash purchases to negotiate better deals [6]. - The reduction in investor activity is attributed to rising mortgage rates, which have significantly compressed profit margins for potential buyers [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The housing market is expected to enter a healthier state by 2026, with improved affordability attracting more buyers back to the market [7][8]. - Despite anticipated improvements, many potential buyers, particularly younger generations, may still find homeownership out of reach due to high living costs [7][8]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious optimism, with expectations of a stable and sustainable pace rather than extreme fluctuations seen in previous years [8].

经历了2021至2023年的持续三年低迷行情后，2024年以来港股市场已迈入"业绩+估值"双击的行情。 年初受大模型推出及AI商业化落地催化，中国资产重估行情启动，港股市场领衔上行，虽然四季度以 来港股市场有望承压，但年初至今的累计涨幅仍然亮眼，在全球主流市场指数中名列前茅，成功逆袭！ 恒生指数涨29.6%，其中的港股通标的更是"青出于蓝胜于蓝"，恒生港股通指数涨幅高达34.6%！ 今日，跟踪恒生港股通指数的恒生港股通ETF（520820）重磅上市！恒生港股通ETF（520820）囊括港 股重点板块稀缺资产，轻松布局港股互联网、创新药、新消费等优质龙头！ 数据截至2025.12.14 那么历经两年的估值修复后，港股市场在2026年又将有何表现呢？"指数投资"趋势下，又有哪些新工具 值得关注呢？ 【春山可望？2026年港股研判："乘势而上、迈向新高度"】 中信证券从多个维度剖析了港股市场2026年的配置价值，其中指出： 估值维度，当前港股仍是全球主要市场中的估值洼地，而计算当前的恒生指数ERP仍高达到5.7%。业绩 来看，当前Bloomberg一致预期显示恒生指数的2026E净利润同比增长8.5%。随着港股基本 ...