宏观扰动走弱， 延续震荡格局 钢材周报 2026/01/31 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 ◆ 需求：本周螺纹钢表观消费量为176.40万吨，环比-4.92%，同比+124.57%。从环比看，临近春节，终端施工活动持续走弱，需求季节性回 落特征较为明显；同比增幅偏大，主要受去年同期低基数影响，实际需求强度仍处于季节性偏弱区间。 热轧卷板方面，本周表观消费量为 311.41 万吨，环比 +0.47%，同比 +14.78%，需求表现相对平稳，制造业端对热卷仍形成一定支撑。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹钢库存为475.53万吨，较去年同期减少177.60万吨，库存水平仍处于相对低位，但在产量高位、需求回落的背景下，库存 开始加速累积，去库动能明显减弱。 热轧卷板库存为355.58万吨，同比减少约33万吨（-8.50%）。尽管春节时间偏晚、制造业需求恢复节奏 ...

去年7月，欧盟与美国达成贸易协议，虽然暂时避免了关税冲突进一步升级，但实质上将欧企对美出口 面临的关税"底线"永久性抬高。欧洲智库欧洲改革中心首席经济学家桑德尔·托尔杜瓦尔说，美欧关税 战没有全面爆发，但美国仍在利用贸易条款系统性地抽走欧洲的工业资本，"持续的'低强度摩擦'比一 场突发的关税战对竞争力的侵蚀更隐蔽、更长久"。 新华社法兰克福1月31日电欧盟统计局1月30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年欧元区国内生产总值 （GDP）增长1.5%，欧盟GDP增长1.6%，略高于市场预期。市场分析人士认为，在全球地缘冲突不断 与贸易摩擦持续背景下，欧盟如何应对外部不确定性冲击和内部结构性挑战，挖掘经济长期增长潜力， 努力在成员国中消除分歧、形成有效合力，仍面临严峻考验。 "经济复苏相当疲弱" 数据显示，经季节调整后，去年第四季度欧元区和欧盟经济环比均增长0.3%，同比分别增长1.3%和 1.4%；欧盟主要经济体德国、法国、意大利分别环比增长0.3%、0.2%和0.3%。 西班牙和葡萄牙两国经济去年四季度均环比增长0.8%，成为拉动欧元区经济增长的主要引擎，而被誉 为欧洲经济"双引擎"的德国和法国则勉强实现正增长。其 ...

新华财经法兰克福1月31日电 欧盟统计局1月30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年欧元区国内生产总值 （GDP）增长1.5%，欧盟GDP增长1.6%，略高于市场预期。市场分析人士认为，在全球地缘冲突不断 与贸易摩擦持续背景下，欧盟如何应对外部不确定性冲击和内部结构性挑战，挖掘经济长期增长潜力， 努力在成员国中消除分歧、形成有效合力，仍面临严峻考验。 "经济复苏相当疲弱" 数据显示，经季节调整后，去年第四季度欧元区和欧盟经济环比均增长0.3%，同比分别增长1.3%和 1.4%；欧盟主要经济体德国、法国、意大利分别环比增长0.3%、0.2%和0.3%。 西班牙和葡萄牙两国经济去年四季度均环比增长0.8%，成为拉动欧元区经济增长的主要引擎，而被誉 为欧洲经济"双引擎"的德国和法国则勉强实现正增长。其中，法国受到内需疲软、政府支出放缓和固定 资产投资增速下降等因素影响，增速为三个季度以来最低。 "2026年欧洲经济的核心问题在于，财政刺激何时开始提振经济增长。"荷兰国际集团首席经济学家贝尔 特·科莱恩寄希望于欧盟层面的激励措施和德国等重要经济体的定向松绑，将经济重心从内需消费驱动 转向"催生新动能"。 欧洲央行近期多次 ...

新华社法兰克福1月31日电 题：欧洲经济缓慢增长背后的内忧外患 新华社记者单玮怡 康逸 欧盟统计局1月30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年欧元区国内生产总值（GDP）增长1.5%，欧盟 GDP增长1.6%，略高于市场预期。市场分析人士认为，在全球地缘冲突不断与贸易摩擦持续背景下， 欧盟如何应对外部不确定性冲击和内部结构性挑战，挖掘经济长期增长潜力，努力在成员国中消除分 歧、形成有效合力，仍面临严峻考验。 分析人士指出，美国贸易壁垒抬高、全球需求放缓、产业竞争加剧等多重挑战，将欧盟内部生产率 偏低、能源成本高企、技术革新缓慢、监管合规复杂等结构性问题进一步放大。 许多欧洲制造业企业正采取停产、裁员或去库存的方式自救，涉及钢铁、汽车、化工、机械设备制 造等广泛行业。欧洲钢铁工业联盟、欧洲化学工业协会等行业组织认为，企业产能关闭与裁员压力源于 欧洲能源成本劣势、官僚主义严重和竞争力下降等。 "经济复苏相当疲弱" 数据显示，经季节调整后，去年第四季度欧元区和欧盟经济环比均增长0.3%，同比分别增长1.3% 和1.4%；欧盟主要经济体德国、法国、意大利分别环比增长0.3%、0.2%和0.3%。 西班牙和葡萄牙两国经济去 ...

转自：梧州发布 用电量是经济运行的"晴雨表"和"风向标"，电力消费直观反映出一个地区的经济活力和发展态势。1月 28日，记者从市发展改革委、南方电网广西梧州供电局等单位了解到，2025年，梧州市全社会用电量累 计148.96亿千瓦时，同比增长10.66%，增速排名全区第一，印证了我市经济转型升级的坚实步伐和高质 量发展的强劲韧性。 据统计，2025年，城乡居民生活用电量29.79亿千瓦时，同比增长8.08%。城乡居民用电的快速增长，不 仅体现了电力消费的扩大，更是人民群众生活水平提升的真实写照。 增长的核心在于产业升级、生产扩张。2025年，每个季度规上工业增加值增速持续稳定在8.5%以上， 全年实现8.9%的增长，对梧州GDP增长贡献率达36.4%……这一成绩源于"精准政策+一线服务"双轨驱 动的发展模式，企业生产蓬勃开展，直接推动了工业用电量的增长。 近年来，为助推深化产业园区改革和服务好重大企业发展，供电部门深化党委委员首席客户经理、首席 问题解决官"双首席"责任制，开辟"绿色通道"，走访服务客户231户次，重点支持翅冀钢铁、弘毅新 材、建晖纸业等22个重大项目建设，靠前服务智慧鑫源、永鑫环保等5个项目 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.96%, Shenzhen Component down by 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.27% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 28,624 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,970 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - AI hardware sectors saw a broad increase, with significant gains in optical modules, optical circuit switching, optical communication, optical chips, and advanced packaging [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a collective sharp decline, with industrial metals, rare earths, gold and jewelry, and other related sectors showing significant losses [1] - Traditional sectors like liquor and real estate, referred to as "old stocks," performed poorly after a recent surge [1] Investment Sentiment - The market is experiencing a significant risk rotation, with funds flowing into underperforming technology and agriculture sectors as a form of risk aversion [1] - Despite the sharp decline in the non-ferrous metals sector, it is believed to have medium to long-term investment value, with the performance of this sector closely tied to commodity prices, particularly gold [9] - The liquidity in the market remains robust, as indicated by the reduced trading volume being attributed to investors locking in positions rather than panic selling [5] Specific Stock Insights - The liquor index showed a significant decrease in trading volume, suggesting that large funds are not exiting but rather locking in positions, indicating potential for future gains [10][11] - The "old stocks" like liquor and real estate may present opportunities for short-term trading, with potential returns of 10%-20% based on technical signals [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 835-998 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90%-302.67%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 705-868 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 299.87%-392.32% [1][5] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to increased production and sales volume, along with a decline in raw material costs. The company has effectively managed costs and improved efficiency through refined management practices and the construction of two 65MW ultra-high temperature subcritical power generation projects [1][2] - The company has also capitalized on market opportunities by optimizing its product mix to increase the sales volume of high-margin products, which has positively impacted its performance [1] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 918 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 270.2%. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.40 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 [4][9] - The forecast for 2026 and 2027 shows EPS of 0.46 yuan and 0.52 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 and 12 [4][9] Financial Data - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 20.458 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.1% from the previous year. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 248 million yuan, a decrease of 64% [4][9] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 8.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.6% [9] Market Position - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, green, and intelligent production, with a focus on supply-side reforms. The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends due to its strong internal incentives and effective cost control [2][4]

Group 1 - The company expects a positive net profit for the year 2025, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [1] - The steel industry is undergoing a deep transformation focused on reducing output and restructuring, which the company is actively adapting to by optimizing production resources and improving operational efficiency [2] - The company anticipates non-recurring gains of 10.5 million to 11.5 million yuan, primarily from government subsidies and the reversal of impairment provisions for receivables [2] Group 2 - The company has communicated with its accounting firm regarding the earnings forecast, and there are no discrepancies between the two parties [1][2] - The company emphasizes a customer-centric and market-oriented operational mechanism to enhance customer satisfaction and integrate production, sales, and research [2] - The company will adhere to legal and regulatory requirements for timely information disclosure [4]

Group 1 - The company expects a positive net profit for the year 2025, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [2] - The steel industry is entering a phase of deep transformation focused on reducing output and restructuring, which the company is actively addressing [3] - The company is implementing measures to enhance production efficiency, optimize raw material ratios, and improve customer satisfaction through a market-oriented operational mechanism [3] Group 2 - The expected non-operating income for 2025 is projected to be between 105 million to 115 million yuan, primarily from government subsidies and the reversal of impairment provisions [3]

□ 新华社记者 胡旭 翟濯 顾小立 广东经济总量连续37年稳居全国首位、江苏社会消费品零售总额首次跃居全国第一、山东跻身"10万亿 之省"、浙江居民人均可支配收入突破7万元……近期，经济大省2025年"成绩单"陆续发布，继续担当拉 动中国经济增长的"火车头"。 2025年全国两会期间，习近平总书记深刻阐明经济大省挑大梁必须把握好的着力点。2025年底召开的中 央经济工作会议提出，支持经济大省挑大梁。 2026年是"十五五"开局之年。经济大省牢记嘱托，坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署，主动作为、攻坚克 难，以推进高质量发展的扎实行动挑起"大梁之责"、蓄积"开局之势"。 加力"两新"融合 增强产业韧劲 1日凌晨，深圳湾口岸查验大厅，一批智能清洁机器人顺利通关，开启海外服务之旅；同日午后，广州 塔450米高的户外观景平台上，一场机器人登高挑战赛热情上演，11支队伍激烈竞逐。 2025年，广东工业机器人产量占全国四成，服务机器人产量占全国八成。新年伊始，"谋远""攀高"，机 器人在广东继续"成长"。 科技创新和产业创新，是发展新质生产力的基本路径。2026年，经济大省保持定力、向"新"而行。 广东将汇聚资源打造具有全球影响 ...