导读： 一级市场的周期转换，总是有伴随着各种惊喜，一夜暴富，各种悲观论调，但核心是不要下牌 桌，只要国内大一统的市场在，人才在，国家重视，大众的赚钱欲望在，那就持续的会出现各 类优秀创业公司。 作者丨杉域资本董事总经理 王春杰 随着这个月摩尔和沐曦的上市，各大机构通过刷爆朋友圈的方式进入了2025年的尾声。 去年聊了287家机构，今年统计了下，总共聊了355家机构，其中LP 239家，GP 85家，CVC 31家。 LP里面54%是国资，15%是金融机构 （保险和券商）， 12%是家办（单一），12%是 产业方， 剩余为一些民资，大学捐赠基金，S买方、三方等。 今年的募资市场，从落地上我感觉是还没有明显的好转，特别是市场化资金这块，国资这块受限于 财政压力，招引任务，可用于做LP的资金也不是很多，更多的钱是用在产业基金（直投）这块。 但明年我感觉会好些， 两个方面，一是今年二级市场上涨带来了一波减持窗口期，这些钱分配后 肯定会有一些再回流到一级市场，二是明年国家队的钱会活跃很多，这部分至少可以解决20- 30%的份额配比，且相对来说是比较市场化的。 市场情绪 今年一级市场情绪是明显的好转，具体从摩尔和沐曦的上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Shenyang's Tiexi district, showcasing its evolution from a traditional industrial base to a vibrant urban area, symbolizing a new era of development in the city [2]. Group 1 - Tiexi district, once a symbol of industrial strength, is now experiencing a significant transformation, reflecting the dynamic heartbeat of a modern city [2]. - The article emphasizes the remarkable changes in Tiexi, indicating a departure from its industrial past towards a promising future [2]. - The upcoming release of a feature by People's Daily titled "City·Events: Shenyang Tiexi" aims to document and celebrate this extraordinary transition [2].

Core Viewpoint - A tariff conflict has escalated between Mexico and China, which could have significant implications for international trade dynamics and may set a concerning precedent for other countries [1][3]. Group 1: Mexico's Actions - In August 2023, Mexico announced a significant increase in tariffs on hundreds of imported goods, with rates reaching up to 25%, specifically targeting non-free trade partners like China and South Korea while exempting the US and Canada [3][5]. - By 2025, Mexico plans to expand the tariff measures to over 1,400 items, indicating a long-term strategy against China and others, despite some adjustments due to external pressures [5][6]. Group 2: China's Response - China has adopted a measured approach, initially advising Mexico, then launching a "trade investment barrier investigation," and finally warning of potential necessary measures [5][6]. - China's three-pronged strategy includes: 1. Legal action through the WTO if Mexico's actions are deemed violations, leveraging global trade rules against protectionism [6]. 2. Trade retaliation by initiating anti-dumping investigations on Mexican products such as beer, avocados, and auto parts [6]. 3. Adjusting investment and supply chains to deter investments in Mexico, which could have long-term economic repercussions for Mexico [8]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - It is crucial not to misinterpret China's calm demeanor as weakness; the country is prepared to defend its legitimate interests vigorously [10]. - The window for negotiation remains open, but time is not on Mexico's side, as historical lessons suggest that short-sighted strategies can lead to long-term consequences [10]. - There is a sense of tragedy for Mexico, as its actions may reflect a loss of strategic autonomy, prioritizing proximity to the US over genuine partnerships [10].

截至发稿，鸿富瀚市值为96亿元。 每经AI快讯，鸿富瀚（SZ 301086，收盘价：106.15元）12月22日晚间发布公告称，深圳市鸿富瀚科技 股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到公司控股股东、实际控制人张定武先生的通知，获悉张定 武先生将其所持有的公司部分股份进行质押，并在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司办理了质押登记手 续。本次质押股份数量为470万股。截至本公告披露日，公司控股股东、实际控制人及其一致行动人累 计质押股份数量为470万股，占其所持股份比例为8.64%。 2025年1至6月份，鸿富瀚的营业收入构成为：制造业占比95.04%，其他业务占比4.96%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——新能源重卡爆单了，11月销量同比增长178%！两班倒都供不应求，客户直 接进厂催单，这情景十年难遇 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Neptunus Mining (SZ 300818) announced that as of the date of the announcement, Zheng Hao has pledged a total of 13.82 million shares, accounting for 17.62% of his total holdings [1] - As of the announcement date, Neptunus Mining's market capitalization is 5.8 billion yuan [2] - For the first half of 2025, Neptunus Mining's revenue composition is 99.77% from manufacturing and 0.23% from other businesses [1] Group 2 - The new energy heavy truck industry has seen a significant increase in sales, with November sales up 178% year-on-year, indicating a strong demand that has led to supply shortages [2] - The current situation in the new energy heavy truck sector is described as unprecedented, with customers directly urging manufacturers for orders [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is actively engaging with listed companies to enhance their quality and promote stable capital markets and high-quality economic development through regular visits and tailored support [1][2]. Group 1: Organizational Leadership and Coordination - A normalized work mechanism for joint visits has been established, clarifying responsibilities and streamlining processes to create an efficient collaborative framework [1]. - The approach includes a full-chain closed-loop management system for addressing company feedback, ensuring timely responses and follow-ups on issues raised by enterprises [1]. Group 2: Problem Identification and Resolution - Since the beginning of 2024, 61 listed companies have been visited, covering key industries such as manufacturing, mining, finance, and information technology, ensuring comprehensive outreach [2]. - Direct engagement with companies has led to the identification of 54 resolved issues related to industrial policy alignment, financing channels, and operational support [2]. Group 3: Policy Communication and Development Promotion - The bureau is focused on interpreting major policy directions and promoting compliance with regulations, encouraging companies to leverage policy opportunities for growth and innovation [2]. - Key regulatory points are communicated through policy interpretation, case analysis, and interactive Q&A sessions, guiding companies to enhance their investment value and operational transparency [2]. Group 4: Integration with Local Economic Activities - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is integrating company visits with local economic initiatives, enhancing capital market services to support regional economic development [3]. - Future efforts will continue to strengthen the visit mechanism, balancing regulation and service to effectively address enterprise needs and challenges [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province has demonstrated resilience and growth in its economy despite external challenges, with a projected GDP exceeding 14 trillion yuan for the year, reflecting its commitment to economic recovery and development [1] Group 1: Economic Stability - The province has implemented the "Four Stabilities" strategy to consolidate and expand economic recovery, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3] - As of November, the "Private Credit Loan" initiative has provided credit to 27,348 private enterprises, amounting to 37.44 billion yuan, addressing financing difficulties for private businesses [2] - In the first ten months, urban employment increased by 1.183 million, supporting the livelihood of residents [3] Group 2: Innovation and Development - Jiangsu has launched initiatives to integrate technology and industry, with 18 high-tech zones collaborating with 37 universities to foster innovation [6][7] - The province has organized 45 major technology projects and established a matrix of research institutions to convert scientific achievements into productive forces [7] - High-tech industries accounted for 51.8% of the province's industrial output in the first three quarters, indicating a shift towards advanced manufacturing [8] Group 3: Reform and Opening Up - Jiangsu has been proactive in reforming its economic structure, with 347 specific reform tasks aimed at enhancing market efficiency and breaking down barriers to high-quality development [10] - The province's foreign trade has shown resilience, with a 5.9% increase in imports and exports from January to October, maintaining its position as a favorable investment destination [11] Group 4: Regional Collaboration - Jiangsu has actively participated in the Yangtze River Delta integration strategy, forming alliances to enhance manufacturing and technological innovation across the region [13] - The province has developed a three-year action plan for the integration of the Ning-Zhen-Yang urban area, aiming to elevate regional development levels [14]

Group 1 - The second "Shenzhen Xiangmi Lake Financial Annual Conference" was successfully held, focusing on promoting a virtuous cycle of technology, industry, and finance in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] - Huang Qifan highlighted five achievements in China's manufacturing high-quality development, including a 32% share of global industrial added value, and a complete industrial chain system [2] - Suggestions for optimizing China's export structure were provided, including gradual appreciation of the RMB against the USD and lowering export tax rates [2] Group 2 - Fan Wenfei discussed the advantages and shortcomings of large language models in AI, emphasizing the need for domestic database products to replace foreign ones [3] - Wu Xiaoqiu proposed three key areas for deepening capital market reform, focusing on investor protection, orderly entry of large funds, and legal and institutional reforms [4] - Xia Derun emphasized the unique advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in becoming a "three-innovation cycle" pilot zone, leveraging Hong Kong's financial center and Shenzhen's tech innovation [5] Group 3 - Yin Yanlin noted significant achievements in technology finance services, advocating for the Greater Bay Area to become a demonstration zone for a "technology-industry-finance" virtuous cycle [6] - Wang Jiangping identified the "quantity-price divergence" issue in China's industrial economy, suggesting reforms and technological advancements to address this challenge [7] - Recommendations for 2026 industrial economic development include optimizing supply, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing risk management [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]

Group 1 - The conference themed "Entrepreneurship Restart, New Voyage for Port City" was held in Lianyungang, focusing on the implementation of the spirit of the 20th Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference, aiming to support enterprise capital increase and expansion for a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The Deputy Mayor of Lianyungang, Zhou Jin, emphasized that capital increase and expansion are crucial for enterprise transformation and technology upgrades, representing a cost-effective approach to attracting investment [1] - Lianyungang possesses multiple advantages, including national strategic convergence, an international hub port, a supportive industrial foundation, and an improving business environment, which collectively create a favorable climate for enterprise development [1] Group 2 - Zhou Jin highlighted the importance of focusing on upstream and downstream industries, enhancing core technology breakthroughs, and actively expanding towards the downstream of the industrial chain while climbing to the high end of the value chain [2] - The integration of digitalization and green development trends is essential, linking capital increase and expansion with intelligent transformation, green low-carbon modification, and service-oriented manufacturing innovation [2] - The local government will strengthen collaboration with enterprises, provide information, build platforms, and prioritize local implementation of capital increase and expansion plans, while enhancing policy support and service efficiency [2] Group 3 - Lianyungang has established a project mechanism involving city and county leaders, improved leadership linkage with key industrial chains, and developed policies to accelerate the construction of a strong manufacturing city and support the development of the biopharmaceutical and new materials industries [3] - A total of 15 capital increase and expansion projects were successfully signed at the conference, and the "Lianyungang Capital Increase and Expansion Demand Collection and Release Platform" was officially launched [3]