2025 年 07 月 24 日 策略研究团队 "反内卷"的行情阶段，及后续展望 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 深度解析"反内卷"行情的持续性 反内卷行情持续发酵存在三大原因：①反内卷政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。②反内卷行业筹 码干净，存在较强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的反内卷行业，基金 配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比例，筹码出清干净。③当前市场风险偏好高位， 对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力增强、投资者活跃度提升， 以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动 A 股走强的核心动因。以上三点也 构成了反内卷的三大优势，也解释了近期反内卷行情能持续发酵的原因。 然而，市场对反内卷仍然存疑：是否存在强有力的财政支持？狭义的"反内卷" 行情更多可以理解为一种收缩型政策，无论对总量还是结构，带来的效果更容易 是"触底"，而非"反转"。在高质量发展的时代背景下，较难出现一次性的花大 价钱办大事，反内卷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the pig farming industry, highlighting the active futures market for live pigs while the stock market for pork-related stocks has seen a significant decline. The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious due to potential increases in pig production despite ongoing profitability in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - On July 24, live pig futures prices fell further, with the main contract 2509 dropping to around 14,320 yuan/ton, a decline of over 2%. This followed a previous high of 15,150 yuan/ton on July 23, indicating volatility in the futures market [2][6]. - The pork concept stocks in the stock market also experienced a notable drop, with the Eastmoney Choice pork concept index falling to around 1,680 points, a decrease of over 1.3% on July 24 [6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on July 23 to discuss high-quality development in the pig industry, involving major pig farming and processing companies. This meeting aimed to analyze the production situation and gather opinions for industry improvement [3][4]. - The government has signaled further control over pig production capacity, with specific targets set for reducing the number of breeding sows by 1 million to 39.5 million. This is part of a broader strategy to optimize production and manage supply [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The average price of live pigs on July 23 was 14.4 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease. The market is currently experiencing a balance between oversupply and weak demand, leading to downward pressure on prices [7]. - Analysts predict that while pig prices may rebound in the third quarter, the potential for significant increases is limited due to expected supply growth in the latter half of the year. Seasonal fluctuations are anticipated, particularly during the consumption peak from July to August [8].

Group 1 - Li Auto has completed the adjustment of payment terms for direct suppliers to 60 days, with monthly payments made twice [1] - China Resources Group reported a revenue of 437.6 billion yuan and a profit of 47.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, achieving double growth [1] Group 2 - Beijing will distribute 10 million yuan in movie viewing subsidies to stimulate urban consumption during the summer and National Day periods [2][3] - The range of "zero tariff" goods in Hainan Free Trade Port will expand to approximately 6,600 tax items, increasing coverage by nearly 53 percentage points [4] Group 3 - The Jiangxi Jingdezhen Taoyangli Scenic Area has opened its pedestrian street for free after criticism regarding its charging practices [5][6] - The ticket prices for the National Games in Hong Kong are expected to range from approximately 50 to 500 HKD, aiming to attract more spectators [7] Group 4 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, inviting major enterprises to discuss industry challenges and solutions [8] - ZhiYuan has launched its quadruped robot D1 ULTRA, designed for special applications, security inspections, and educational purposes [9][10] Group 5 - Aniplex reported that the new film "Demon Slayer" achieved a record box office of 5.52 billion yen in its first three days, surpassing previous records [11] - Taobao Flash Sale denied rumors regarding internal expert interviews and stated that all operational strategies follow normal business practices [12] Group 6 - The China Ride-Hailing Association issued an apology for misleading information regarding the ban on fuel vehicles in Beijing's ride-hailing platforms [13] - The commercial insurance premium for new energy vehicles exceeded 66.17 billion yuan in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of over 41% [14]

Industry Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on July 23 to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing the need to rationally eliminate breeding sows and control production capacity. Since May of last year, the pig farming industry has been profitable for 14 consecutive months, indicating a reduced risk of price decline and an increased probability of price rise, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry [2] - Nine Dragons Paper announced a price increase of 30 yuan/ton for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard starting August 1, marking the fourth price increase since July. The paper industry is currently facing challenges due to shrinking downstream demand and slow capacity clearance, but there are opportunities for growth in the corrugated paper sector, primarily used for packaging [2] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - Feilong Co., which specializes in thermal management components for automotive and non-automotive sectors, expects a revenue of 2.162 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.67% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 210 million yuan, an increase of 14.49%. The decline in revenue is attributed to a high proportion of traditional business and weak demand in the traditional fuel vehicle market, while the new energy thermal management segment saw a 3.56% increase in revenue [5] - Jiangling Motors, engaged in the production and sale of commercial and passenger vehicles, anticipates a revenue of 18.092 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 733 million yuan, a decrease of 18.17%. The company sold 58,000 new energy vehicles, a 54.5% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant contribution to profits. The focus is now on improving product structure and profitability as the company transitions to new energy vehicles [6] Consumer Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the latest progress on Hainan's customs closure, set to start on December 18, 2025. The new policies will implement a "zero tariff" policy for 74% of imported goods, significantly expanding the range of zero-tariff items from 1,900 to approximately 6,600. This will enhance the competitiveness of local industries and promote the formation of industrial clusters [8][9]

Group 1 - The core logic behind the recent surge in commodity futures is attributed to the "economic recovery expectations + supply rigidity + liquidity premium" [3] - The main contracts for polysilicon and coking coal have shown remarkable performance, with polysilicon prices rising over 70% from just above 30,000 yuan/ton to over 50,000 yuan/ton in less than a month [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon, coke, glass, and soda ash have also experienced significant rebounds, with industrial silicon prices reaching over 10,000 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 50% increase from early June [1] Group 2 - The recent collective rise in commodity futures is driving an investment trend in related industries, fueled by supply-demand dynamics and policy guidance [4] - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition, which is interpreted as potentially beneficial for related commodity prices [3] - A focus on sub-industries like pesticides and organic silicon is suggested due to the combination of seasonal demand and supply adjustments [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating [5] | | Protein Meal | Oscillating [5] | | Corn/Starch | Oscillating [6][7] | | Live Pigs | Oscillating Strongly [7] | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating [8] | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating [11] | | Cotton | Oscillating [11] | | Sugar | Oscillating Weakly in the Long - Term, Oscillating in the Short - Term [13] | | Pulp | Oscillating Strongly [14][15] | | Logs | Oscillating Weakly [16] | 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also evaluates the impact of policies, weather, and other factors on these products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some to oscillate, and some to be weak in different time frames [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, it oscillated and diverged, with a strong production increase expectation for Malaysian palm oil in July. International data shows a production increase in Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 20, while exports decreased. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, trade agreements, and biodiesel demand [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices lagged behind the futures, and the market fluctuated more. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate due to mixed factors. Domestically, there is a short - term adjustment risk, but it is expected to be strong in the long run [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Affected by the market atmosphere, both futures and spot prices oscillated strongly. Supply may tighten in July - August, but demand is weak due to low livestock and poultry breeding profits and losses in the deep - processing industry [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, far - month futures rose. Supply is under pressure in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand and inventory show some changes. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with policy influence [1][7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and rubber prices oscillate at a high level. The rubber market is affected by the overall commodity market sentiment, with short - term supply limited and demand relatively stable [8][9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has entered an adjustment stage. Although it was affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, the price center may rise slightly in the short - term [11]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillated strongly. In the short - term, low inventory supports prices, but upward momentum may be insufficient. In the medium - term, prices may be under pressure due to expected increased production [11]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. In the long - term, prices are expected to be weak due to expected supply increase, while in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - environment, it is recommended to go long. Although there are supply pressures in the medium - term, the macro - environment remains favorable [14][15]. - **Logs**: The market adjusted downward as the overall market adjusted. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak pattern in the medium - term [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report provides data on various agricultural products, including prices, production, inventory, and other aspects, to help analyze the market trends of these products [20][52][82][108][121][142][160]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines different rating standards, such as "strongly bullish", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weakly bearish", along with the corresponding expected price change ranges and time periods [174].

Group 1 - The livestock ETF (516760) experienced a decline of 0.44% on July 24, with notable gainers including Roniu Mountain (000735) up 7.81% and Mido (300381) up 0.93% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on July 23 to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, highlighting issues such as high production capacity, price volatility, and challenges in disease prevention and waste management [1] - The Ministry emphasized the need for strict capacity control measures, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and controlling the weight of pigs for slaughter [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities analyzed that the national inventory of pigs aged over 5 months decreased by 0.8% in June, predicting a reduction in pig output in July and August, which may stabilize and gradually increase pig prices [2] - The Ministry's focus on "capacity adjustment" and "policy stabilization" suggests a shift towards high-quality development in the pig farming industry, potentially enhancing profitability and stability in the sector [2] - The livestock ETF tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector, and the current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is at a historical low of 13.34 times, indicating a high safety margin for the sector [2]

Company Analysis - Bilibili (BILI US) is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 7.38 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 36% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 493 million, aligning with consensus expectations [2] - The strong performance in advertising and mobile gaming is supported by a well-established commercial infrastructure, contributing to the improvement in profit margins [2] - The FY25 total revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% due to a more conservative outlook for value-added services in the second half of 2025, considering intense industry competition [2] - Despite the downward adjustment, the company’s profit growth outlook remains positive due to enhanced commercialization capabilities and operational leverage [2] - The target price for Bilibili has been raised to USD 28.8 from USD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Overview - Global market sentiment has improved due to agreements between the US and Japan, and nearing agreements between the US and Europe, which has positively impacted Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a continuation of upward trends, led by sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, while industrials and utilities declined [3] - A shift in capital from new consumption to the internet sector was noted, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 1.32 billion [3] - In the A-share market, there was a pullback after reaching highs, with declines in sectors like building materials, defense, and machinery, while non-bank financials, beauty care, and home appliances saw gains [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of China's anti-involution policies, with expectations that this round of capacity reduction may affect a broader range of industries, including steel, coal, building materials, photovoltaic, new energy equipment, lithium batteries, and pig farming [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming sector is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, leading to significantly enhanced expectations for capacity optimization [1][4]. Group 1: Policy and Capacity Optimization - The core issue facing the pig industry is overcapacity, with the breeding sow inventory reaching 40.43 million heads as of June 2025, which is 103.7% of the normal holding level [4]. - Policies are being implemented to control production capacity, including a directive to reduce the breeding sow count by 1 million heads to a target of 39.5 million [6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is monitoring the market, indicating a 0.8% decrease in the inventory of pigs over 5 months old in June, suggesting a potential reduction in pig output in July and August [6]. Group 2: Industry Restructuring and Competitive Advantages - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape, accelerating the exit of inefficient production capacities, which benefits quality listed pig companies [7]. - Cost competition is becoming crucial, with leading companies like Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff Group achieving production costs as low as 12-12.5 yuan per kilogram, providing them with a long-term competitive edge [7]. - Recent earnings forecasts from 14 listed companies indicate that 11 expect profit increases, with Muyuan Foods projecting a 1190% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of the year [7][8]. Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The DCE pig futures surged by 1.67% on July 23, reaching a new high for the year, while the livestock farming ETF (516670) rose by 3.37% over the week, with a cumulative net inflow of 115 million yuan [1]. - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index's price-to-book ratio is approximately 2.53 times, still relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for investment [1][4].

Company Insights - Tesla reported disappointing Q2 earnings with revenue of $22.5 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, and adjusted net profit of $1.393 billion, down 23% year-over-year. The company also warned of a challenging outlook for the upcoming quarters, anticipating tariff costs of approximately $300 million [2] - Container orders for industrial robots have surged, with some companies reporting orders extending to November. This indicates a rapid acceleration in the robotics industry, driven by ongoing developments in Tesla's robotics initiatives and the completion of IPO preparations by related firms [13] Industry Insights - The General Administration of Customs of China released interim measures for tax management of duty-free goods processed in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing goods with over 30% value added from imported materials to enter mainland China without import duties [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized the need for high-quality development in the pig industry, focusing on market guidance and policy support to stabilize the market and promote industry transformation [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is focusing on nurturing quality technology enterprises, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence, to enhance service across the entire lifecycle and business chain of these companies [5] - The biotechnology company Abivax's small nucleic acid drug has shown positive results, leading to a stock price surge of over 596%. The year 2025 is highlighted as significant for small nucleic acid drug investments due to advancements in delivery platforms and expanded indications [11]