Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, opportunistic cash-and-carry arbitrage in futures and spot markets [3] - Inter - delivery spread: On the sidelines [3] - Inter - commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are temporarily stable, but new order follow - up has slowed. The market sentiment has improved due to export quota news, with some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizers ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers winding up, and melamine's operation slightly increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - based plant maintenance is expected to start in December. The export sentiment still affects the urea market, and the newly - obtained export quota and the Indian import tender may support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,660 yuan/ton (-7). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,620 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), in Henan was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), and in Jiangsu was - 50 yuan/ton (+37) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (0.08% change). There is information about urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume in related figures [1][17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 90 yuan/ton (+20). There are also data on production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production in related figures [1][19] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - On November 10, 2025, the urea export profit was 962 yuan/ton (+42). The report mentions that urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, and on November 7, India's IPL issued a new urea import tender for 2.5 million tons. There are also data on overseas prices and export profit margins in related figures [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of November 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (0.00% change), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (+3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.29 days (-0.24) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5781 million tons (+23,800), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000) [1]

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector experienced a short-term rebound on November 11, with companies such as Hong Sifang and Chuanfa Longmang seeing gains of over 2% [1] - Other stocks in the sector, including Yuntu Holdings, Yara International, Hubei Yihua, and Liuguo Chemical, also followed the upward trend [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Export sentiment boost in the short term cannot offset weak domestic demand, and the rebound space is limited under high inventory pressure [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamentals and Views - About 600,000 tons of new quotas have been implemented, boosting market sentiment, and the overseas price difference supports a short - term price rebound [4] - Coal prices remain stable, the operating rate of gas - based enterprises decreases seasonally, and the relief of cost pressure supports the bottom [4] - The autumn fertilizer season is ending, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is declining, agricultural demand is weakening, downstream procurement is cautious, and enterprise inventories remain at a high level [4] - The industry's daily average output is 198,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 14,400 tons), and the operating rate of 84.6% has reached a high for the same period. The oversupply situation remains unchanged [4] Urea Fundamental Data Inventory - Information on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, and urea inventory (ports + inland) is presented in time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9] Futures and Warehouse Receipts - Data on the position volume, trading volume, total warehouse receipt quantity, and total valid warehouse receipt forecasts of the urea futures main contract are shown in time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 [10][11][13][14] Price and Spread - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 show the market price of small - particle urea in Henan and Shandong, the basis, the price difference between large and small particles, and the seasonal spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [17][19][20][22] Cost and Profit - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 present the production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and coal - water slurry gasification methods, as well as the production cost, gross profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of compound fertilizers in Shandong [28][30][32][38][39][40] Production and Capacity Utilization - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 show the production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output of urea, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [33][35][37][38] External Market and Related Commodities - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 display the FOB prices of Chinese and Middle - Eastern small - particle urea, the spot price of thermal coal, and the port inventory of thermal coal [42][44][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sentiment in the domestic urea market has cooled, with supply being ample and demand showing a downward trend. Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas will boost market sentiment in the short - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose in the medium to long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance of price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 1660 (-8/-0.48%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices rose, but trading was average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On November 10, the daily urea production was 19.51 tons, 0.28 tons less than the previous working day and 1.08 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, 1.89% higher than 81.52% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Maintenance devices have gradually resumed operation, and the average daily output has increased to around 19.6 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The issuance of the fourth batch of quotas has made the impact of international prices on the domestic market more prominent. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the demand is weakening. The inventory of urea production enterprises has slightly increased to around 158 tons [5]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, domestic demand is limited, and the spot market sentiment is still sluggish. Although the issuance of the new quota will boost the market sentiment, the overall domestic demand will enter a "vacuum period" again after the autumn fertilizer season. In the medium to long - term, the urea fundamentals are still loose [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short positions are recommended [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6].

长江期货尿素周报： 反弹持续性有待验证 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-11-10 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 尿素：反弹持续性有待验证 01 资料来源：博易大师，iFIND，长江期货 03 尿素基差与价差 p 基差：尿素主力基差走弱，11月7日河南市场主力基差-73元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-78）—（-61）元/吨。 1 市场变化：价格：受农业需求转好及出口配额影响，尿素价格企稳回升，11月7日尿素2601合约收盘价1667元/吨， 较上周上调42元/吨，涨幅2.58%。尿素现货河南市场日均价1594元/吨，较上周上调25元/吨，涨幅1.59%。基差： 尿素主力基差走弱，11月7日河南市场主力基差-73元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-78）—（-61）元/吨。价差：尿素 1-5价差走强，11月7日1-5价差-67元/吨，周度运行区间（-86）—（-67）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率83.55%，较上周提升2.61个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率72.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to be supported in a volatile range. The mid - stream's continuous replenishment and new export quotas support prices, while policy regulation weakens the downward pressure from high domestic supply [2][3] - The domestic fundamentals of urea face relatively large pressure, but policy regulation reduces the intensity of the downward drive. In the fourth quarter, it is a "buyer's market" in China. The 01 contract has a strong resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The trading volume was 321,705 lots, an increase of 172,820 lots, and the open interest of the 01 contract was 268,588 lots, a decrease of 6,554 lots. The basis in Shandong was - 67 yuan, down 3 yuan, and the UR01 - UR05 spread was - 67 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of most urea producers remained stable, with only Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 10 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan and 30 yuan respectively. The industry's operating rate was 80.69%, up 0.43 percentage points, and the daily output was 188,760 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [1] Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a 1.53% increase. Some regions' inventories increased due to environmental protection and market demand changes [2]

中泰期货尿素周报 ——尿素生产成本上移 尿素出口再度放开 2025 . 1 1 . 9 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | 2025年10月31日-11 | 2025年11月7日-11 | 2025年11月14日-11 | 2025年11月21日-11月27 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月6日 | 月13日 | 月20日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量： | 19.35 | 19.86 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本 周预计1家企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生 | | | 万吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | | | | | | 2025年第45周(20251031-1106)，复合肥本周期产能利 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly in the phosphorous chemical sector, driven by strong demand for lithium iron phosphate and rising electricity costs, leading to price increases for most phosphorous chemical products [4][24][29] - The report highlights a trend of "anti-involution" in the caprolactam industry, with a 20% production cut agreed upon by manufacturers to stabilize prices [5] - The overall chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.72% this week, indicating a positive market sentiment [16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The phosphorous chemical market is seeing a favorable demand for lithium iron phosphate, with prices for yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid rising due to strong cost support and limited supply [4][24] - The average price of yellow phosphorus reached 22,486 CNY/ton, up 2.34% from the previous week [24] - Phosphoric acid prices have also increased, with an average of 10,530 CNY/ton, reflecting strong market orders [4][25] Key Products - The price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has risen to 6,082 CNY/ton, a 2.32% increase from the previous week, driven by stable demand and limited supply [4][26] - The price of diammonium phosphate (DAP) remains stable at 3,596 CNY/ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among traders [4][27] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the chemical sector such as Xingfa Group and Yuntianhua, while beneficiary stocks include companies like Hubei Yihua and Chuanheng Co [4][6][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated operations in the phosphorous chemical sector, which enhances competitive barriers and supports long-term profitability [29] Market Performance - The chemical industry index reported a 3.54% increase this week, with 72.59% of the stocks in the sector showing positive performance [16][21] - The report tracks price movements across 226 chemical products, with 63 products seeing price increases and 96 experiencing declines [17]

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report focusing on urea, dated November 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the domestic urea market may experience a rebound due to the news of the fourth batch of export quotas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose and the market is expected to run weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose, closing at 1667 (+27/+1.65%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices increased with fair trading volume. The factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1550 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1530 - 1540 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1410 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 7, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.79 tons, an increase of 0.20 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.61%, a 3.44% increase from 81.17% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming operation, and the average daily production has increased to around 19.6 tons. Urea production enterprise inventories have slightly increased by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - **Demand Side**: The market rumor of the fourth batch of export quotas (about 600,000 tons) has increased the influence of the international market on the domestic one. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The overall domestic demand is showing a downward trend [5] - **Price Trend**: The domestic spot price is oscillating between 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the news of export quotas will boost market sentiment, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market will still be weak due to the approaching end of autumn fertilizers and the upcoming "vacuum period" of domestic demand [5] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short - term rebound [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]

出口消息提振，盘面触底反弹 尿素月报 2025/11/07 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 尿素产业链月度价格数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 面 | | | 盘 | | | | | | 合 约 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | 月 差 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | | 09合约 | 1736 | 1742 | - 6 | 9-1价差 | 111 | 7 2 | 3 9 | | 01合约 | 1625 | 1670 | -45 | 1-5价差 | -78 | -47 | -31 | | 05合约 | 1703 | 1717 | -14 | 5-9价差 | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | 国内现货市场 | | | | ...