联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 1 元至 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 7334 手至 16.46 万手，空头持仓减少 6129 手至 18.83 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | | | | 4、印度 NFL 发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购 150 万吨（西海岸 80 万吨东海岸 | | 能源与化 | 尿素 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 估值端：价格及价差 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | | • | 本周(20251218-1224)，中国尿素生产企业产量：133.34万吨，较上期跌3.25万吨，环比跌2.38%。周期内新增5家企业装置停车，5家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期的装置变化，本周产量明显减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计138万吨附近，较本期明显提升。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，3-5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， | | | | 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量大概率明显增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，四季度末为中游补库高峰期，今年粮 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 | | • | 本周(20251218-1224)，中国尿素生产企业产量：133.34万吨，较上期跌3.25万吨，环比跌2.38%。周期内新增5家企业装置停车，5家停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期的装置变化，本周产量明显减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计138万吨附近，较本期明显提升。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，3-5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， | | | | 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量大概率明显增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，四季度末为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].

展望后市，蔡英超表示，短期来看国际尿素价格会保持强势，2026年市场走势不确定性较大，需关注国 内出口政策的变化。 新湖期货尿素研究员姚瑶表示，国际尿素价格上涨的主要原因是伊朗冬季供应下降，印度市场需求旺 盛。相对来看，国内尿素供应充裕，下游农业需求处于淡季，工业需求一般。出口方面，虽然国际尿素 价格上涨后出口利润进一步提升，但国内市场出口配额有限。对于目前市场传闻的"第五批出口配额"， 姚瑶认为落地的可能性不高。 据齐盛期货尿素研究员蔡英超介绍，环保限产导致产量有所下降，需求保持平稳，市场整体保持供大于 求的状态。内外盘价差较大，有可能推动"第五批出口配额"落地。 看向国际市场，姚瑶表示，目前国际市场尿素供需趋紧。12月伊朗冬季限气导致天然气化工装置大量停 车，气头尿素供应下降，而印度市场仍处于旺季，其11月和12月销量处于高位，而且今年以来印度市场 库存始终偏低，下半年印度多次进行招标，标量显著高于前两年同期，最新一次招标发布于12月16日， 招标意向达到150万吨。 从国内市场来看，姚瑶称，上周尿素日产量在19.5万吨附近，后期日产量同比增速将维持高位。从下游 来看，预收订单近期以下降趋势为主，农业需求 ...

上市企业：盐湖股份（000792）,湖北宜化（000422）,云天化（600096）,鲁西化工（000830）,新洋丰 （000902）,史丹利（002588）,四川美丰（000731）,阳煤化工（600691） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 2020-2025年1-10月中国农用氮磷钾化肥(折纯)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国农用氮磷钾化肥(折纯)产量为534万吨，同比下降0.2%； 2025年1-10月中国农用氮磷钾化肥(折纯)累计产量为5416.4万吨，累计增长8.8%。 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1735（-1/-0.06%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，收单乏力，河南出厂报 1640-1670 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1670-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1600-1620 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1540-1590 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】12 月 26 日，尿素行业日产 19.39 万吨，较上一工日增加 0.07 万吨；较去 年同期增加 1.76 万吨；今日开工率 80.19%，较去年同期 78.76%回升 1.43%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价坚挺，市场情绪降温，成交转弱，厂家收单零星，个别低价区成交 尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率提升，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始 出货，新单成交乏力，省内尿素厂收单零星，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主；河南 地区市场情绪偏弱 ...

转自：中国质量报 □ 毛延锋 本报记者 徐东周 12月23日清晨，雾气尚未散尽，浓浓寒意笼罩着冀南平原。然而，在河北省邢台市任泽区西固城乡赵村 的广场上，却是一番热气腾腾的景象——由河北省市场监管局、河北省质检院、邢台市市场监管局、任 泽区市场监管局及两家化肥企业共同组成的科技助农服务队，为村民送来了一份特殊的"科技大礼包"。 这是河北省委宣传部2025年度文化科技卫生"三下乡"（任泽专场）集中服务活动的一个生动场景。 服务队的到来，激活了这个冬日清晨的小村庄。广场上，几张简易长桌一字排开，很快被村民围得水泄 不通。河北省质检院的技术专家一边发放科普资料，一边耐心讲解实物产品质量常识。 "老乡们，庄稼跟人一样，也讲究'健康营养'，不同的地、不同的苗，得用不同的肥料。"河北省质检院 高级工程师郑冬梅举着化肥样品现场教学。不远处，几位老人在听另一位专家讲解如何科学选购农膜。 服务内容不限于农资。针对农村"一老一小"群体，河北省质检院的专家还传授了老年鞋、老花镜、儿童 玩具、纺织品等日常用品的选购知识。"给孙子买玩具，一定要找CCC标志，这是安全底线。"一位带着 孙子的奶奶频频点头，小心地把宣传页折好放进口袋。 在 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformative role of "new quality humic acid" in promoting agricultural green development and ensuring food security in China [1][2][11] Group 1: Agricultural Transformation - The agricultural sector in China is undergoing a green transformation, focusing on soil health and efficient fertilizer use [2][4] - New quality humic acid is identified as a key driver for this transformation, enhancing soil structure and fertilizer efficiency [4][12] Group 2: Industry Development - The humic acid industry has established a complete ecosystem with both ecological and economic value, supported by government policies and industry standards [7][8] - The production of humic acid products is expanding, with a projected increase in humic acid urea production to 791,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a 29.2% year-on-year growth [16] Group 3: Technological Innovation - Technological advancements are crucial for the high-quality development of the humic acid industry, overcoming traditional product limitations [11][12] - Companies like Xinyanxin are leading the way in standardizing humic acid products, enhancing quality control and market competitiveness [10][12] Group 4: Market Impact - The application of new quality humic acid is yielding significant benefits for farmers, including increased crop yields and improved soil health [15][16] - The market share of humic acid products is growing, with leading companies capturing over 50% of the market, indicating a shift in industry dynamics [16][17] Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is poised for further growth, with projections indicating that by 2030, the penetration rate of humic acid in fertilizers could exceed 50%, potentially creating a market worth over 200 billion yuan [18][19] - The "New Xiang Initiative" outlines a vision for the industry to enhance soil health and promote sustainable agricultural practices through collaborative efforts [19][20]

Core Insights - The national production material market prices remained stable from December 15 to 21, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Fuel Prices - Wholesale prices for refined oil experienced slight declines, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Coal Prices - Coal prices saw minor reductions, with coking coal, anthracite, and thermal coal priced at 1055 yuan, 1159 yuan, and 781 yuan per ton, reflecting decreases of 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - Prices for non-ferrous metals predominantly declined, with aluminum and copper decreasing by 0.4% and 0.1%, while zinc saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3] Group 4: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices showed slight fluctuations, with compound fertilizer increasing by 0.2% and urea decreasing by 0.1% [4] - Steel prices remained largely unchanged, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip priced at 3358 yuan, 3547 yuan, and 3508 yuan per ton, all increasing by 0.1%, while ordinary plates, welded pipes, and channel steel decreased by 0.1% [4] Group 5: Basic Chemical Raw Materials - Basic chemical raw material prices experienced minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid and methanol increasing by 2.9% and 0.1%, while polypropylene and soda ash decreased by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively [4] Group 6: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively [5]