Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Chemical Industry - The CCPI price index for the chemical industry increased slightly to 3,868 points, up 1% from the previous week, indicating a stabilization in prices [7][8] - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical raw materials and products sector decreased to -7.9% in October, down from -5.6% previously, signaling a slowdown in investment [7][8] - Improvement in liquidity and anti-dumping policies are seen as catalysts for a potential recovery in the chemical sector in Q4 2025, with a focus on chemical fiber, nickel-chromium, agricultural chemicals, and lithium battery materials [8] Oil Shipping Industry - Oil shipping rates reached a five-year high of $126,000, driven by OPEC production cuts and increased demand, with supply tightness expected in 2025 [3][4] - The U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets have further tightened compliant shipping capacity [3] - Recommendations include招商轮船 (Zhongshan Shipping) and 海南港股 (Hainan Port Stocks) due to favorable market conditions [4] Express Delivery Industry - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, 极兔速递 (Jitu Express) reported a global average daily package volume of 94.59 million, a 15% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in Southeast Asia and new markets [5] - The average daily package volume in Brazil exceeded 1 million, confirming the company's expansion potential in new markets [5] - The overall growth rate of express delivery volume slowed to less than 10% due to price increases, particularly in Guangdong where prices rose by approximately 0.5 yuan [6] Lithium Battery Materials - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate surged from 50,000 yuan to 135,000 yuan per ton, reflecting strong market demand [9][10] - The price of additives like vinyl carbonate (VC) increased significantly due to supply disruptions, with VC prices rising from 77,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan [9][10] - Recommendations include 新宙邦 (New Zobon) and关注莲花科技 (Lianhua Technology) for their strong positions in the lithium battery supply chain [10] Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry has seen a price increase for DMC to 13,000 yuan, driven by a consensus to reduce production by 30% [11] - No new production capacity is expected from 2025 to 2026, while demand is projected to grow by 8-10%, indicating a potential supply-demand improvement by 2026 [11] Vitamin Market - The vitamin market is showing signs of seasonal demand, with prices for vitamin E and A recovering due to low inventory levels [12][13] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies like 新和成 (New Hecheng) and 花园生物 (Garden Bio) for investment opportunities [13] Metal Sector - The metal sector has performed strongly, with expectations for continued interest in aluminum and energy metals [14] - Recommendations include 盛新锂能 (Shengxin Lithium) and 雅化集团 (Yahua Group) as key players in the market [14] Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with port coal prices rising but at a slower rate [15][16] - Anticipated increases in demand due to colder weather could drive prices higher, presenting a good investment opportunity in coal stocks [16] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted various sectors with distinct trends and investment opportunities, particularly in the chemical, oil shipping, express delivery, lithium battery materials, organic silicon, vitamin, metal, and coal industries. Each sector presents unique dynamics influenced by market conditions, regulatory changes, and consumer demand.

2025 年 11 月 16 日 有机硅减产助推供需边际改善，北交所相关产业链公司景气有望上行 ——北交所化工新材专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） 北交所策略专题报告 zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 有机硅供需将得到边际改善，产业链有望迎来景气上行周期 近期，有机硅 DMC 市场价格上行。根据买化塑研究院监测，国内有机硅 DMC 价格已攀升至 12000-12500 元/吨，单日最大涨幅达 1000 元/吨，较 11 月初累计 上涨超 1000 元/吨。这场价格反弹并非偶然，而是行业在"反内卷"共识下，供 需格局深度调整的必然结果，标志着持续两年多的行业低迷期有望终结，底部反 转信号日益清晰。2025 年 11 月以来，行业协同行动进入实质性落地阶段。11 月 12 日，鲁西化工牵头召开行业会议，达成"减产 30%+涨价至 13500 元/吨"的 双重目标，计划 12 月初启动减产，半个月内完成价格抬升。会议成果迅速显现， 11 月 13 日已有单体厂将报价上调至 12500 元/吨并限量接单，合盛硅业、新安股 份等龙头企业集体封盘，市场预计主流大厂后续 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 有机硅欲"反内卷" ，硅片企业联合挺价 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 11 | 月 | 16 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周四川、福建、东北各减少 1 台开炉，内 蒙、甘肃新增 1、2 台开炉。西南枯水期预计仍有进一步停 炉，11 月月底四川开炉数预计将至 10 台内，云南开炉数预计 降至 12 台左右。北方生产较为稳定，关注历年来环保、限电 可能对开工造成的阶段性影响。SMM 工业硅社会库存环比-0.6 万吨，样本工厂库存环比+0.06 万吨。目前平衡表显示 11 月工 业硅小幅累库、12 月去库约 1 万吨。但若有机硅"反内卷"减 产执行到位，或导致 12 月工业硅也难以去库。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 根据 Infolink，本周现货以交付前期订单为主，并无新签订 单。龙头一线厂家致密复投料价格维持 51-53 元/千克以上，颗 粒料维持 50 ...

Core Insights - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a high operating rate of 80.69% in January 2025, with a subsequent stabilization around 70% [1][2] - Domestic demand for organic silicon intermediates has shown significant growth, while export growth has slowed due to high base effects from the previous year [1] - The industry is expected to see a price recovery and positive average profits due to planned production cuts of 30% by single factories [3] Demand Side - Domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [1] - Export volume for organic silicon intermediates was 420,100 tons in the same period, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.30%, reflecting a slowdown due to high base effects [1] Supply Side - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, leading to an improved supply landscape; domestic production capacity for organic silicon intermediates increased from 1.675 million tons in 2020 to 3.44 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.71% [2] - The industry maintains a high concentration of production capacity, with major players like Hoshine Silicon Industry holding a 26% market share [2] Product Pricing - The average price of DMC is currently at 12,500 yuan per ton, having increased by 1,000 yuan per ton recently; the industry is positioned at historically low price levels [3] - The planned production cuts are expected to help stabilize prices and potentially lead to a recovery in industry average profits [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong performance in specific sub-sectors such as tires and electronic materials [2][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the successful launch of Sinopec's 250,000 tons/year thermoplastic elastomer project, marking a significant advancement in the supply capacity of environmentally friendly materials in the Yangtze River Delta region [3]. - The report also notes the public announcement of Kangpeng's fluorinated material monomer project, which aims to enhance competitiveness in the electronic materials sector [3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in the tire sector, where domestic companies are seen as having strong competitive advantages [4]. - The report suggests that the consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - The report highlights the resilience of certain cyclical industries, particularly phosphate chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics due to environmental regulations [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rose by 3.28% this week, indicating a positive trend in the basic chemical sector [2][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included organic silicon (5.03%), soda ash (4.96%), and polyester (4.88%) [2][13]. Key Industry Developments - Sinopec's thermoplastic elastomer project has been successfully launched, with a production capacity of 250,000 tons/year, including various types of SBC products [3]. - Kangpeng's fluorinated material project is set to produce 20 tons/year of 2-fluoro-4-amino benzamide, enhancing its competitive edge in the electronic materials market [3]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The tire sector is highlighted as having strong domestic competitiveness, with companies like Sailun, Senqcia, and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [4]. - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit from this trend [4]. - Investment Theme 3: Phosphate chemicals are noted for their resilience, with supply constraints expected to support prices [5]. - Investment Theme 4: The report suggests that leading chemical companies with scale advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the organic silicon industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand for organic silicon continues to grow significantly, while overseas exports have slowed down due to a high base from the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2025, the domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [3][6] - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, leading to an improved supply structure. The production capacity of organic silicon intermediates in China increased from 1.675 million tons per year in 2020 to 3.44 million tons per year in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.71% [3][8] - Product prices are at historically low levels and are expected to rise due to coordinated production cuts. As of November 13, 2025, the average price of DMC was 12,500 yuan per ton, up 1,000 yuan from the previous working day [4][13] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Domestic demand for organic silicon intermediates has been consistently high, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.8164 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.9%. The export volume for organic silicon intermediates in 2024 is expected to recover to 545,700 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.21% [3][6] Supply Side - The supply side is showing signs of improvement as the peak of capacity expansion has passed. The industry capacity concentration is high, with major players holding significant market shares. As of January 2025, the industry operating rate was 80.69%, which later stabilized around 70% [3][8][9] Price and Profit - The organic silicon industry has faced a significant deterioration in supply-demand dynamics, leading to negative profits. However, with the planned 30% production cut by manufacturers, there is potential for price recovery and positive profit margins in the future [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Xingfa Group, Dongyue Group, and Luxi Chemical, highlighting their competitive advantages and ongoing projects that are expected to enhance their market positions [15][18]

Summary of Silicon Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry is experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand, particularly in emerging sectors such as electronics, power, and renewable energy, which now account for 40% of consumption, offsetting the decline in traditional construction sectors [1][2][16] - The apparent consumption of organic silicon is projected to grow at an annual rate of nearly 10% from 2008 to 2024, increasing from 360,000 tons in 2008 to 1,820,000 tons in 2024 [2][16] Capacity and Production - Global organic silicon capacity is continuously increasing, with China contributing 75% of the total capacity, which is expected to reach 4.25 million tons by 2024 [3] - Major overseas producers are gradually exiting the market, with Dow's UK Barry plant set to close in 2026, removing 145,000 tons of capacity, marking the first global capacity reduction since 2018 [5][10] Price Trends and Profitability - The current price cycle of the organic silicon industry resembles that of 2016-2018, characterized by the exit of overseas capacity and a lack of new domestic capacity, leading to improved demand from emerging sectors [6][15] - Organic silicon prices have recently increased by 1,000 CNY per ton, providing significant profit elasticity for leading companies like Dongyue and Xin'an, despite many companies currently operating at a loss [4][12] - The price is currently around 11,000 CNY, with expectations for profit recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve and anti-dumping measures are implemented [15][17] Future Outlook - There are no new production capacity plans from Chinese companies for 2025 and 2026, although Xinjiang Qiya Group has proposed a 400,000-ton project, its timeline remains uncertain [7] - The closure of Dow's plant is expected to enhance global supply-demand balance and boost Chinese exports, particularly as Europe faces a ceramics supply gap [10][11] - The industry is shifting towards high-value-added products, such as silicone oils and resins, to stabilize profits and reduce reliance on low-cost raw material supply [14] Key Takeaways - The organic silicon industry is poised for growth driven by emerging sectors, with significant changes in global capacity dynamics favoring Chinese producers [1][3][10] - Price recovery is anticipated, supported by improved supply-demand fundamentals and strategic industry adjustments [4][15][17] - The focus on high-value products and the exit of overseas competitors will likely reshape the competitive landscape, enhancing profitability for leading firms [12][14]

11月14日，东岳硅材跌5.36%，截至发稿，报13.23元/股，成交10.40亿元，换手率6.26%，总市值158.76 亿元。 资料显示，山东东岳有机硅材料股份有限公司位于山东省淄博市桓台县唐山镇工业路3799号，成立日期 2006年12月28日，上市日期2020年3月12日，公司主营业务涉及从事有机硅材料的研发、生产和销售。 主营业务收入构成为：107胶49.40%，硅油13.49%，110生胶12.11%，混炼胶5.46%，其他5.37%，气相 白炭黑4.32%，硅酮胶4.29%，其他(补充)2.18%，液体胶2.01%，中间体1.36%。 从东岳硅材十大流通股东角度 截至发稿，赵宗庭累计任职时间8年214天，现任基金资产总规模3558.65亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 126.94%， 任职期间最差基金回报-32.63%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，华夏基金旗下1只基金位居东岳硅材十大流通股东。华夏中证1000E ...

Core Points - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on November 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4029.50 points, up 0.73%, and a trading volume of 876.40 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52 points, up 1.78%, with a trading volume of 1165.56 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3201.75 points, up 2.55%, with a trading volume of 522.92 billion yuan [1] Industry Highlights - The lithium battery industry chain saw significant growth, with stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Rongjie Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [1] - The organic silicon concept also strengthened, with companies such as Xin'an Chemical and Sanyou Chemical reaching the daily limit [1] - The Fujian sector was notably active, with stocks like Pingtan Development and Xiamen Construction hitting the daily limit [1] - Phosphate and fluorine concepts rose, with companies like Taihe Technology and Furui Textile reaching the daily limit [1] - Alibaba-related stocks experienced a late surge, with Data Port hitting the daily limit [1] - Sectors such as electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, tourism, and mineral products showed strong gains, while telecommunications, transportation facilities, and banking sectors faced declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a "anti-involution" self-discipline movement, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and potential investment opportunities as the industry recovers from prolonged losses [1][2] Group 1: Industry Actions - Various segments within the chemical sector are actively pursuing self-discipline actions, such as polysilicon leading companies forming a consortium to store capacity, caprolactam reducing production to support prices, and the organic silicon industry promoting self-regulation [1][2] - The polysilicon sector plans to establish a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan to eliminate excess capacity and address accumulated industry debts, which is expected to drive up silicon material prices [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The chemical industry has been in a bottoming phase for over two years, with profitability at historical lows, but new capacity investments are nearing completion, indicating a potential turning point by 2026 [1] - The organic silicon industry has seen continuous improvement in supply-demand conditions this year, with expectations for further enhancement next year, as previous negative factors have been largely mitigated [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector presents left-side layout opportunities, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages and reasonable valuations in segments like soda ash, coal chemical, and titanium dioxide, which are characterized by high energy consumption and a significant proportion of outdated capacity [2]