Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on cotton and cotton yarn in the agricultural products industry, dated November 4, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,535, down 65; CF05 at 13,555, down 60; CF09 at 13,725, down 55; CY01 at 19,795, down 125; CY05 at 19,845, down 75; CY09 at 20,085, unchanged [2] - Trading volume and open interest of each contract had different changes, e.g., CF01 trading volume decreased by 3,913 and open interest decreased by 6,089 [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 19; Cot A was 76.85 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 75.69, up 0.09; etc [2] Price Spreads - Cotton and cotton yarn had various spreads, such as cotton 1 - 5 month spread at -20, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread at -170, down 5; etc [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 4, 2025, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous day, with expected short - term upward fluctuations [4] - This year's cotton yield per mu in Shaya County was generally 380 - 450 kg/mu, a decrease of 30 - 70 kg/mu compared to last year, possibly due to improper fertilization and low September temperatures [4] - As of October 28, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas decreased significantly, and the quality indicators of US cotton declined [4] Trading Logic - In November, with new cotton on the market, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Supply is expected to increase but the increase may be less than previously thought. Demand enters the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate with limited upside and downside. Sino - US trade policies may have a large impact [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. Close previous long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although market confidence improved last week, downstream demand did not improve significantly. Cotton has large hedging pressure. Most cotton yarn prices were stable, with only a few varieties selling well. Follow downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and fabric mills purchase raw materials as needed. Downstream customers place mainly rigid orders and are cautious [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 3, 2025, for example, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 260, down 10%; CF601P13000.CZC closed at 25, down 34.2% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. Implied volatilities of different options varied, e.g., 7.5% for CF601 - C - 13400 [11] Option Strategies - Hold off on options [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts of 1% tariff cotton price spreads, cotton basis for different months, cotton yarn - cotton spreads, and cotton inter - monthly spreads [15][18][22][23]

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1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Fundamentals**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP for the seventh time this year and will end balance - sheet reduction by the end of the year. Sino - US leaders' meeting eases trade restrictions. In the domestic market, Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, September CPI dropped 0.3% year - on - year, industrial added value rose 6.2% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month, and retail sales increased 3.0% year - on - year. The USDA halted data updates due to a government shutdown. Supply may be slightly tight in 2025/26 after the contraction of the high - yield expectation. Seed cotton acquisition costs are 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the processing progress is slower than last year. Cotton commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. In September 2025, cotton imports continued to rise month - on - month, with 680,000 tons imported from January to September, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease. In October, the textile market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. Terminal domestic textile and clothing consumption is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved after the tariff cut delay [6][57]. - **Outlook**: In November, during the peak processing period of Xinjiang cotton, trading may slowly rise due to a slight increase in production and hedging pressure. The acquisition price of seed cotton has rebounded, increasing processing costs and expected hedging pressure levels. Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. Market expectations for new - year cotton demand have improved [6][57]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads, and buy call options [6][57]. - **Important Variables**: Listing progress, industrial policies, and macro - policies [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main US cotton contract showed a V - shaped trend, with a 0.9% monthly decline. Due to the US government shutdown, multiple data stopped updating, and US cotton followed Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton rose after a decline in October, with a 3.4% monthly increase. The expected cotton production in the new year decreased due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang. The acquisition price of seed cotton rebounded, boosting the market, but there is still hedging pressure [10]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report adjusted the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand situation. US production increased by 0.2 million tons, India's ending inventory increased by 48,000 tons, China's ending inventory decreased by 229,000 tons, and Brazil remained unchanged. Globally, production increased by 231,000 tons to 2.5621 billion tons, trade volume increased by 52,000 tons to 1.9031 billion tons, consumption increased by 183,000 tons to 2.5872 billion tons, and ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 1.5924 billion tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 New - Year Production Estimate - In September 2025, the China Cotton Association predicted an increase in national cotton production. The national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the expected total output was 7.278 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. Xinjiang's output was 6.972 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase, while the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins saw output declines [17]. 3.3.2 Cotton Acquisition and Processing - As of late October, cotton picking and acquisition in Xinjiang were progressing smoothly. Due to lower - than - expected yields in southern Xinjiang, acquisition prices rose, with northern Xinjiang at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg and southern Xinjiang at 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. As of October 30, 2025, the national cumulative inspection was 1.68 million tons, with 1.6636 million tons in Xinjiang [19]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In mid - October, commercial cotton inventory was 1.7202 million tons, up 698,500 tons from the end of last month, and industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, down 36,200 tons. Commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. Industrial inventory decreased slightly, and yarn and fabric inventory days also decreased [23]. 3.3.4 Cotton Import Volume - In September 2025, 95,000 tons of cotton were imported, a 22,300 - ton year - on - year decrease and a 22,300 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to September, 680,800 tons were imported, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.3.5 Textile Enterprise Processing - As of October 24, spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.4 days, unchanged from last week; yarn inventory was 27.8 days, up 0.3 days; weaving mills' yarn inventory was 7.7 days, down 0.2 days; and cotton fabric inventory was 31.6 days, up 0.3 days. The yarn and fabric load indexes were 51.4% and 51.9% respectively. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was dull [30]. 3.3.6 Textile Demand - In September 2025, retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 123.1 billion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative retail sales were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.4 billion US dollars, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, cumulative exports were 221.7 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. Domestic demand is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved [46]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook The content is the same as the core views of the report [6][57].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure and long - term attention on US cotton production and export. In China, short - term cotton price upward space is limited, but long - term prospects are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle. Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance with loose supply and weak demand. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,600 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang factory price was 14,658 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,843 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton production is expected to increase to 530 - 570 million tons, and new cotton arrivals are increasing [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market supply - demand will be loose, with short - term external markets under pressure. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new cotton supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price upward space is limited, and long - term prospects are optimistic [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term, the cotton price may test the previous low, and long - term, it can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton yesterday, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5720 yuan/ton [3] - Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of October crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, up 0.3% year - on - year, and produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, up 1.25% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to whether 5400 can form a phased support [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5224 yuan/ton yesterday, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp was 4990 yuan/ton [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market prices were basically stable, with only individual fluctuations [6] Market Analysis - Supply is loose, with overseas production reduction plans having limited impact and domestic imports increasing. Demand is weak both globally and in China, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

Industry Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: October 29, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of volatile adjustment. The spot market has seen a slight decline, and the downstream demand in the cotton industry has not fully recovered. The new cotton listing and processing peak has brought hedging pressure, and the short - term trading focus is slowly rising [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton was between 6.2 - 6.6 yuan/kg. The cost of new cotton was around 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton (gross weight). As of October 27, 2025, the national cumulative inspection volume was 1.4407 million tons, an increase of 85,200 tons from the previous day [7][8] - **Downstream Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market was generally stable, but downstream demand did not fully follow up, and the overall market sales were average. The pure - cotton grey fabric market had sales pressure and insufficient market confidence [7] 2. Industry News - As of October 27, 2025, 985 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton. The national cumulative inspection volume was 1.4407 million tons, an increase of 85,200 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 84,400 tons from the previous day, and the inspection volume in inland areas was 8,900 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different futures contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and currency exchange rates, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][17]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 郑棉总成交 177346 手，持仓 908903 手。结算价 1 月 13565 元/吨，5 月 13580 元 /吨，9 月 13730 元/吨。 ICE12 月合约结算价 65.05 涨 49 点，3 月 66. ...

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from October 28, 2025, and cover multiple industries including oils and fats, meal, pork, corn, sugar, cotton, and eggs [1][2][4][7][10][12][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports Group 3: Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may rise supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the Malaysian trend. Soybean oil may rise in the short - term due to strong CBOT soybean and soybean oil, but its increase may be limited by sufficient supply and weak demand [1] Meal Industry - With Sino - US relations warming, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean压榨 data is strong. Brazilian soybean exports to China remain high. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but costs are strongly supported, so domestic meal is expected to trend strongly [2] Pork Industry - Recent pig price rebounds are due to secondary fattening. There is demand improvement, but 11 and 12 - month出栏量 will increase, and there may be new pressure around the Winter Solstice. Current arbitrage holding risks are high [4] Corn Industry - Northeast corn prices are stable overall, with some areas declining. In North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm decreases as prices fall. Corn is in the concentrated selling period, and the supply pressure keeps the market weak. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for刚需 [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose. As the Northern Hemisphere's crushing season begins, the market focuses on India and Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are near production costs, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have recovered, and the rigid demand for cotton is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is hedging pressure, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [12] Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory, restored egg - laying rate, and increased egg weight. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline in the second half of the week due to supply - demand imbalance [15] Group 4: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 3.91%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 0.24%). The basis was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.13%). The basis was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%) [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [2] Pork Industry - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of Live Pig 2511 was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%); Live Pig 2601 was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (- 0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%) [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); Sugar 2605 was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%) [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.09%) [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); Cotton 2601 was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%) [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%) [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of Egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); Egg 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%) [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].