Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that cotton futures prices on the ICE are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a current price of 66.09 cents per pound, reflecting a decline of 0.20% [1] - On September 4, the opening price for cotton futures was 66.25 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.25 cents, showing a slight increase of 0.18% [2] - The average ginning rate for Xinjiang cotton reached 27.7% as of September 1, marking a week-on-week increase of 12.4 percentage points [3] Group 2 - As of September 2, approximately 30% of the U.S. cotton-growing areas were affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week but down from 41% in the same week last year [3] - The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,829, a decrease of 167 from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,451 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis price of machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang was CF01+1300 - 1400, and in Southern Xinjiang's Kashgar was CF01+1150 - 1250. [7] - The cotton yarn market had general trading, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs. The price was generally stable, and most spinning mills held firm on prices. The grey fabric market was stable, with general trading volume and few new orders. [7] Overseas and Domestic Markets - In the overseas market, the good and excellent rate of US cotton decreased slightly, weekly export sales were weak, and the net long position of CFTC funds remained low. The external market fluctuated weakly. [8] - In the domestic market, many cotton merchants had low inventories, and some old cotton from the 2023/24 season was still unsold. The expected output of new cotton was stable with a slight increase, putting pressure on the long - term market. There was still an expectation of抢购 at the start of the new cotton acquisition season. [8] - Since August, the downstream market had a slight marginal improvement, and the inventory of finished products in spinning mills and weaving factories decreased slightly. The market was concerned about the traditional peak season. The short - term trend was mainly fluctuating adjustment. [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of August 30, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.847 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The planting area in major producing states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat decreased, while that in Telangana increased. The final area was expected to be around 10.94 - 11 million hectares, slightly lower year - on - year. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee. All data sources were Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [7][17][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, determining that U.S. exporters circumvented anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode optical fibers to China. Anti-circumvention measures will be implemented from September 4 [1] - In August, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with a revised figure of 104,000 for July. The ISM services PMI for August was reported at 52, marking the fastest expansion in six months, driven by the strongest growth in orders in nearly a year [1][5] Group 2 - In the dual-fuel market, the main contract showed a strong trend, with a continued decrease in coking coal positions. Steel production from the five major materials decreased week-on-week, while total inventory continued to accumulate, particularly in hot-rolled coil [2][25] - Methanol prices increased by 1.18% in the night session, with a significant rise in the number of imported cargoes arriving at ports. Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.3985 million tons, a historical high, with a week-on-week increase of 99,000 tons [3][14] - In the precious metals market, gold prices fell after a period of consolidation, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. Concerns arose regarding potential import tariffs on silver as the U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals [4][18] Group 3 - The State Council issued opinions to enhance the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry, emphasizing increased financial support and encouraging sports enterprises to go public [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released an action plan for stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors from 2025 to 2026 [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a state of shock adjustment. The spot cotton price has increased slightly, while the downstream cotton yarn and grey fabric markets are generally stable with limited new orders [7]. - Overseas, the good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly decreased, export sales are weak, and the external market is oscillating weakly. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase steadily, putting pressure on the long - term market. Although there are expectations of new cotton acquisition, short - term trading is mainly characterized by shrinking volume and shock adjustment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,465 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for machine - picked cotton in northern and southern Xinjiang vary, and the downstream cotton yarn and grey fabric markets are generally stable with limited new orders [7]. - **Overseas Market**: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton is 51% (down from 54% the previous week), the boll - setting rate is 90%, and the full - boll rate is 28%. The good - quality rate has slightly decreased, export sales are weak, and the external market is oscillating weakly [8]. - **Domestic Market Outlook**: Many cotton merchants have low inventories, and some old cotton from the 2023/24 season remains unsold. New cotton production is expected to increase steadily, putting pressure on the long - term market. The downstream market has shown a slight marginal improvement since August, and the market is waiting for the performance of the traditional peak season. Short - term trading is mainly characterized by shrinking volume and shock adjustment [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending August 30, 2025, the cotton harvest rate in Brazil's 2024/25 season is 72.8%, up from 60.3% the previous week, lower than 87.6% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 86.5% [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rate data, but no specific data analysis is provided [17][18][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - The cotton market is facing a complex situation. Internationally, the extension of India's tariff exemption time supports US cotton, and the USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply and demand has made the pattern tighter. However, the adjustment of some countries' production may not be in place, and the slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support domestic cotton prices in the short term. But the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. - The sugar market has a situation where the continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, the low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices provide some support [5]. - The pulp market has supply pressure due to planned domestic pulp capacity expansion and high port inventories. On the demand side, weak consumption in Europe and the US, low domestic demand during the off - season, and over - capacity in the paper industry lead to limited demand improvement, and the pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7][8]. Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,045 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,324 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,412 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton. As of September 1, 2025, the weekly listing volume of Indian cotton was 0.7 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 87%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1749 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 5% [1]. Market Analysis - International: India's extension of the tariff exemption time supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the production adjustment of some countries may be incomplete. The slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside, and the ICE US cotton may be in the 65 - 70 cents range in the short term. - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of domestic cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas have not solved the short - term cotton shortage in Xinjiang. The supply is tight at the end of this season, and the approaching peak season improves demand. However, the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. In the short term, the tight supply, approaching peak season, and potential for抢购 may lead to a bullish oscillation of Zhengzhou cotton before the large - scale listing of new flowers. In the medium term, the expected high yield in the new year and potential weak peak season may lead to a decline in cotton prices [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. India allows sugar mills to use various raw materials to produce ethanol to ensure domestic sugar supply [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season in the central - southern region. Pakistan's sugar purchase supports sugar prices, but Brazil's peak crushing season and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limit the upside. - Domestic: The continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5]. Strategy - Neutral. The low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the further decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,042 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with only minor fluctuations [5][6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp capacity put into production in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking of ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and low domestic demand during the off - season, over - capacity in the paper industry, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected in the second half of the year [7]. Strategy - Neutral. The lack of improvement in the pulp market fundamentals and the absence of positive drivers suggest that the pulp price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), with a slight decline observed in recent trading sessions [1][2] - As of September 2, the opening price for cotton futures was reported at 66.63 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.06 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.71% [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicated that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. cotton was at 51%, down from 54% the previous week, while the blooming rate reached 94%, significantly higher than the previous week's 81% [2] Group 2 - The ICE reported that as of August 29, the inventory of deliverable 2nd grade cotton contracts remained stable at 15,474 bales [2] - On September 2, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a total of 6,131 cotton futures warehouse receipts, which is a decrease of 189 receipts compared to the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,479 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang and Kashgar, southern Xinjiang were in different ranges. The spot trading of cotton improved slightly after the sharp decline in the futures market, and the inventory of many cotton merchants was low. The expected stable and increasing output of new cotton brought some long-term pressure. There were sporadic hand-picked seed cotton purchases at the end of August and early September, with purchase prices ranging from 7.25 to 7.35 yuan/kg. The downstream demand improved marginally since August, and the finished product inventory of spinning mills and weaving factories decreased slightly [7][8] - Operation suggestions: The short-term sentiment was weak, and the market was mainly in a state of volatile adjustment [8] Group 3: Industry News - In Hutubi County, 869,000 mu of cotton is gradually boll-opening. The county's 24 cotton purchase and processing enterprises have nearly completed the overhaul of production equipment, and the purchase funds and personnel are ready. It is expected to start purchasing new cotton around September 20, and relevant departments will strengthen supervision during the purchase period [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume [16][17][18]