证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 01 年 月 日 有色金属 2026 年度策略：物少天成贵，势来价自高 贵金属：白银王者归来，黄金仍将闪耀。2026 年美联储仍有降息必要性，货 币政策基准情形将维持适度宽松。黄金方面，全球央行增持黄金热度不减；黄 金 ETF 往往在降息周期中持续流入。ETF 与央行共振下黄金牛市有望延续。 白银方面，2025 年白银 ETF 持仓显著提升，金融属性主导银价上涨。我们认 为，市场高估了工业需求的影响，而低估了金融属性所带来的投资需求拉动。 同时，尽管 2025 年银价涨幅超过黄金，但目前金银比仍然显示银价相对金价 低估。银价在 2025 年大幅上涨后，金银比依然位于 70 以上的历史偏高水平。 历史上看，金银比多数时间运行在 40-80 区间，目前金银比仍显示银价相对于 金价处于低估状态。 铜：供需缺口明确，铜价上行斜率提升。①宏观面：2026 年中美关键年份再 度重合，"关税退坡+财货双松"支撑铜价牛市加速。②供给端：供给矛盾在 2026 年依然存在，CAPEX 回升需要更高铜价激励。我们认为供给扰动的集中 发生也并非简单的"黑天鹅"事件 ...

截至2025年12月31日收盘，融捷股份（002192）报收于51.75元，较上周的55.46元下跌6.69%。本周， 融捷股份12月29日盘中最高价报55.8元。12月30日盘中最低价报49.99元。融捷股份当前最新总市值 134.37亿元，在能源金属板块市值排名12/13，在两市A股市值排名1447/5181。 公司拟在2026年度继续开展与锂盐产品相关的商品期货套期保值业务，仅限于广州期货交易所的碳酸锂 期货品种。保证金金额不超过8,000万元，任一交易日持有的最高合约价值不超过50,000万元，资金来源 为自有资金，交易期限自董事会审议通过之日起一年内有效。该事项已由董事会审议通过，无需提交股 东大会审议。公司已制定内控制度并明确风险控制措施。 公司制定《子公司管理制度(2025年12月）》，规范对全资及控股子公司的治理结构、重大事项报告、 财务管理等内容。子公司需遵循公司战略规划，重大事项须报公司审批，定期报送经营及财务信息。公 司实施内部审计监督，明确董事、监事及高管职责，并建立考核激励机制。 公司发布《内部控制缺陷认定标准(2025年12月）》，明确内部控制缺陷分为设计缺陷和运行缺陷，按 严重程 ...

2025年12月31日，沪指以十一连阳为全年行情画上句号。这一年，A股市场活力迸发，奏响了一曲昂扬 向上的交响乐。 人工智能作为A股突出叙事主题，串联各行业主线，催生多个热门板块。AI基础设施建设阶段，以AI芯 片、高端服务器为代表的核心算力板块率先启动，是行情发动机，寒武纪、工业富联、海光信息、浪潮 年初，Deepseek、人形机器人技术取得突破，中国资产重估的叙事引爆市场。4月市场短暂休整后，便 开启新一轮上行。沪指从年内低位3040点起步，一度冲破4000点，截至12月31日收盘报3968.84点，年 内上涨18.41%。创业板指表现更为突出，全年累计涨幅达49.57%，最大涨幅近90%，尽显成长股在产业 周期上行时的弹性。其他主要宽基指数也普遍大涨，深证成指、科创综指、北证50年内分别上涨 29.87%、46.30%和38.80%。 与指数上涨相伴的是市场活跃度大幅提升。2025年全年，A股累计成交额达420.21万亿元，刷新历史纪 录，同比增长62.64%，这是增量资金共识形成、积极入场的直观体现，为行情提供了坚实的流动性基 础。作为高风险偏好资金入市的主要指标，A股融资余额2025年下半年以来单边 ...

证券之星消息，12月31日能源金属板块较上一交易日下跌0.22%，博迁新材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3968.84，上涨0.09%。深证成指报收于13525.02，下跌0.58%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300618 | 寒锐钻业 | 2431.61万 | 5.92% | -608.41万 | -1.48% | -1823.20万 | -4.44% | | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | 1110.94万 | 0.41% | -2500.02万 | -0.92% | 1389.09万 | 0.51% | | 6633209 | 永杉锂V | -1158.35万 | -9.43% | 241.80万 | 1.97% | 916.55万 | 7.46% | | 605376 博迁新材 | | -2465.58万 | -9.91% | -1237.07万 | -4.97 ...

Company Overview - Ganfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, and was established on March 2, 2000. The company was listed on August 10, 2010. Its main business involves research, development, production, and sales of various deep-processed lithium products [1] - The revenue composition of Ganfeng Lithium includes lithium series products (56.78%), lithium battery series products (35.52%), and others (7.70%) [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ganfeng Lithium achieved an operating income of 14.625 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.02%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 25.52 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 103.99% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Ganfeng Lithium has distributed a total of 6.162 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.933 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - On December 31, Ganfeng Lithium's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 62.85 yuan per share, with a total transaction volume of 1.653 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.15%. The company's total market capitalization is 131.777 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has increased by 80.29%, but it has seen a decline of 5.90% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" four times this year, with the most recent appearance on October 13, where it recorded a net buy of -165 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Ganfeng Lithium had 372,500 shareholders, an increase of 31.18% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person is 3,243, a decrease of 23.77% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest shareholder with 6.9199 million shares, a decrease of 993,700 shares from the previous period [3]

12月31日，盛新锂能盘中上涨4.70%，截至09:35，报34.97元/股，成交3.14亿元，换手率1.00%，总市值 320.08亿元。 分红方面，盛新锂能A股上市后累计派现9.29亿元。近三年，累计派现8.11亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，盛新锂能十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第十大流 通股东，持股1043.29万股，为新进股东。华夏行业景气混合A（003567）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入2339.67万元，特大单买入1656.28万元，占比5.27%，卖出2133.86万 元，占比6.79%；大单买入9027.80万元，占比28.74%，卖出6210.55万元，占比19.77%。 盛新锂能所属申万行业为：有色金属-能源金属-锂。所属概念板块包括：土地流转、锂电池、盐湖提 锂、稀土永磁、比亚迪概念等。 截至9月30日，盛新锂能股东户数12.42万，较上期增加1.92%；人均流通股6974股，较上期减少1.88%。 2025年1月-9月，盛新锂能实现营业收入30.95亿元，同比减少11.53%；归母净利润-7.52亿元，同比减少 6 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.15% [2] - The advanced packaging, memory, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic sectors showed strength, while commercial aerospace and energy metal stocks weakened [3] Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently at 3968.73, with an increase of 3.61 points or 0.09% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index is at 13627.26, up by 23.20 points or 0.17% [3] - The ChiNext Index stands at 3247.74, gaining 4.83 points or 0.15% [3] - N Huadong's stock surged over 1000% upon its listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [3] Notable Stocks - Dongjie Intelligent experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% after announcing the termination of a major asset restructuring plan [5] - Aobo Ceiling's stock hit the daily limit up, following the announcement of a change in its actual controller to Shi Qiming [6] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 26 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.22% [7] - Stocks of Ctrip Group, JD Group, and NetEase showed weakness, while new energy vehicle stocks like NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Li Auto saw gains [7]

拔地而起！12月30日，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）早盘大幅低开，场内价格跌超 2%，之后快速拐头向上拉升，场内价格最高上探2.27%，收涨1.75%，全天振幅4.95%。 值得关注的是，有色ETF华宝（159876）昨日刷新上市新高后，今日场内价格再涨1.75%，彰显强者风 范，资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，该ETF全天获资金净申购2880万份！ | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交額 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 云铝股份 | 6.82% | m | 有色含厚 | 工业金属 | 분 | 1098亿 | 18.81亿 | | 2 | 海景服役 | 5.41% | 1000 | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 铜 | 304亿 | 4.57亿 | | 3 | 天山铝业 | 4.99% | w | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 铝 | 754Z | 11.29亿 | | ব | 中国铝业 | 4.72% | Van ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed nearly flat today, achieving a "ten consecutive days of gains" with a closing price of 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,426 billion, a slight increase of 33 billion compared to the previous day [1]. Market Sentiment - The market had high expectations for the "ten consecutive days of gains," but the appearance of the tenth consecutive gain was seen as a "false positive" due to a significant opening drop and subsequent recovery that did not lead to a real increase. The index opened down by 0.16% during the pre-market phase, breaking the previous streak of gains [2][3]. Trading Dynamics - The trading session exhibited a pattern of rising and then falling prices. Although the index closed higher than the midday level, the number of declining stocks increased significantly, with nearly 700 stocks declining by the end of the day. The median decline of all stocks expanded from 0.05% at midday to 0.55% at the close, indicating a broader market weakness despite the index's rise [3]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, energy metals rebounded after a significant drop the previous day, with the "three major oil companies" contributing 5.25 points to the index. The consumer electronics sector also showed strength, particularly in the robotics concept stocks. However, leading stocks in the liquor sector underperformed, leading to a decline in the commercial retail and consumer sectors [4]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index showed a strong performance today, particularly in the afternoon, aligning with the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index. The Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.86%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a more significant increase of approximately 1.79%. However, trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, falling below 200 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a net outflow of 38.45 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Huabao ETF (159876) indicates strong investor confidence in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant net subscriptions and positive price movements, suggesting a bullish outlook for the industry [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao ETF saw an intraday increase of 2.27%, currently up by 1.55%, with a real-time net subscription of 28.2 million units and an additional 15.36 million yuan attracted yesterday, reflecting strong market interest [1]. - Key constituent stocks such as Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum reached new highs, while Hai Liang, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt rose over 4% [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Yun Aluminum: +5.67%, market cap of 108.6 billion yuan, trading volume of 1.625 billion yuan [2]. - Tianshan Aluminum: +4.86%, market cap of 75.3 billion yuan, trading volume of 1.023 billion yuan [2]. - Hai Liang: +4.85%, market cap of 30.2 billion yuan, trading volume of 393 million yuan [2]. - China Aluminum: +4.54%, market cap of 201.7 billion yuan, trading volume of 4.406 billion yuan [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: +4.42%, market cap of 129 billion yuan, trading volume of 4.911 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for large-scale mergers and restructuring in the aluminum and copper industries to enhance competitiveness and scale [2]. - The aluminum market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a traditional commodity to a core energy value carrier, with potential for independent price increases driven by the copper-aluminum ratio and rising demand for aluminum [3]. - The current phase of the industry is characterized by a reversal in fundamentals, a "de-involution" policy, and opportunities arising from AI developments, which are expected to lead to more stable returns and a focus on investment efficiency [4].