新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-13 铅价走高 现货成交相对低迷 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-12，LME铅现货升水为-28.65美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至16700 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/吨至16725元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化75元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10125元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10375元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-12，沪铅主力合约开于16870元/吨，收于16890元/吨，较前一交易日变化45元/吨，全天交易日 成交29540手，较前一交易日变化7816手，全天交易日持仓44388手，手较前一交易日变化399手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16965元/吨，最低点达到16840元/吨。夜盘方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, it is the off - season for consumption, leading to poor downstream enterprise operations. Some smelting enterprises are resuming production, and it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.55 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead price in different regions also remained stable, and the lead scrap price was unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,850 yuan/ton, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 21,724 lots, a decrease of 14,490 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,989 lots, an increase of 21 lots. The night - session closing price was 16,855 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase [1] Spot Market Transaction - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged. In Henan, the transaction was light; in Hunan, some enterprises raised their quotes due to inventory decline and showed a reluctance to sell. The spot market transactions showed significant differences, with some demand shifting to the primary lead market, and downstream enterprises preferred to pick up goods directly from smelters [2] Inventory - On June 11, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,525 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Put it on hold [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, the lead market is currently in a consumption off - season, with poor downstream enterprise operations. Sellers have lowered their premium quotes to sell, and some smelters are resuming production. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.95 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and holders quoted a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes changed to a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and traders quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. In Jiangxi, smelters quoted a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,880 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,214 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,968 lots, a decrease of 5,599 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,905 yuan/ton and a low of 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On June 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week. As of June 10, the LME lead inventory was 278,025 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is cautiously bearish, and it is recommended to sell hedges on rallies, with the selling range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to be postponed [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - **Important Information**: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - **Related Information**: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - **Related Information**: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - **Important Information**: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - **Related Information**: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - **Strategy**: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - **Related Information**: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - **Important Information**: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bearish [3] - Option strategy: Sell calls [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is in the off - season of demand, with no obvious signs of recovery in downstream demand after the holiday and a strong wait - and - see attitude. Therefore, the current operation should focus on selling hedges on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.98/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, while the SMM Guangdong and Henan lead spot prices increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,325 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Market**: On June 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,680 yuan/ton, closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,915 lots, a decrease of 4,095 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 50,484 lots, a decrease of 2,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,765 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,645 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week. As of June 5, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute Price**: Due to the off - season of lead demand and no obvious improvement in downstream demand after the holiday, the operation strategy is to sell hedges on rallies [3]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell call options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price strategy is cautiously bearish, and the option strategy is to sell calls [3][4] Core View - Due to the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, weak downstream stocking willingness, and rising inventory, combined with the relatively tight lead ore resources, the lead price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the future. It is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging, with the selling range above 16,850 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 22.17 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16375 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16425 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16400 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16450 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10325 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28541 lots, a decrease of 24390 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 55547 lots, an increase of 2217 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16685 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16525 yuan/ton. In the night session, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16635 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On June 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 283150 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, and downstream demand is weak. Therefore, it is recommended to use sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell calls [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 17.34 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,075 lots, an increase of 4,378 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 45,996 lots, a decrease of 3,025 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,825 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,705 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,700 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, some rigid demand transactions occurred with suppliers offering discounts of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 40 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and some suppliers offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, suppliers offered premiums of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead or discounts of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. The lead price was consolidating, and due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream inventory - building intention was low, resulting in light trading in the spot market [2] Inventory - On May 29, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 49,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 29, the LME lead inventory was 288,550 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 20.67 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,697 lots, a decrease of 4,123 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,021 lots, an increase of 2,957 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude. Near the end of the month and with the start of new monthly long - term orders, the trading volume in the spot market decreased [2] Inventory - On May 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 28, the LME lead inventory was 291,050 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell call options [3][4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]