Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [29] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that liquor companies are keen on innovation, focusing on low-alcohol, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digital products. For instance, Luzhou Laojiao has developed a 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and is testing 16-degree and 6-degree variants [6][4] - The beverage sector is experiencing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to diverse functional demands. Companies are launching new products like functional drinks, electrolyte water, and sugar-free tea to meet these needs [6][4] - The snack industry is identified as a strong growth driver, catering to both emotional value and cost-effectiveness, with manufacturers introducing healthier options like konjac and quail eggs [6][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has seen a cumulative decline of 0.35% this week, with notable stock performances including *ST Yanshi (+2.66%) and Yili Te (+1.30%) [6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation in the liquor sector to meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [6][4] Food Industry - The food index has increased by 1.48% this week, with top performers like Jindawei (+17.54%) and Huanlejia (+13.91%) [6][8] - The report reiterates investment opportunities in beverages and snacks, driven by differentiated consumer demands and health trends [6][4] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye for their strong performance outlook [28]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor, particularly the 1L 53-degree Flying Moutai, has significantly decreased in the market, leading to a situation where the retail price on the iMoutai app is higher than the market price, causing consumer confusion and dissatisfaction [1][8][21]. Pricing Discrepancies - The official retail price for the 1L Flying Moutai is set at 3799 yuan, while the lowest price on e-commerce platforms is 3180 yuan, indicating a price inversion [1][5]. - Other Moutai products also show price inversions, with the purchase price on iMoutai being higher than the market wholesale price for various products [8][21]. - The market price for Flying Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan, with reports of prices as low as 1950 yuan per bottle in Jinan [16][18]. Market Trends - The price of Moutai has been declining, with the wholesale price for Flying Moutai dropping by 18% since the beginning of the year [16][21]. - The price of the Snake Year Moutai has also decreased from a factory price of 2499 yuan to around 2300 yuan, with wholesale prices as low as 2180 yuan [18][21]. - The overall market is experiencing a downturn, attributed to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts on government consumption, which accounts for 15% of Moutai's sales [21][24]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly opting to purchase Moutai from retail stores rather than through the iMoutai app, as many products are available without the need for a lottery system [11][15]. - Some consumers have expressed dissatisfaction with the iMoutai app, leading to a decline in its user base as individuals uninstall the app after winning lotteries for products they no longer wish to buy [15][24]. Company Response - Moutai is implementing strategies to stabilize prices, including high-level visits to distributors and potential adjustments to supply policies [23][24]. - The company has introduced a "stop supply test" strategy to manage inventory and stabilize prices, although some initiatives have been quickly retracted [24][25].

Group 1 - The market price of Feitian Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations, with wholesale prices dropping sharply for the 2025 vintage [1] - The wholesale price for a case of Feitian Moutai fell from 1915 yuan to 1830 yuan, a decrease of 85 yuan per bottle, while the price for individual bottles dropped from 1850 yuan to 1780 yuan, a reduction of 70 yuan [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the overall demand in the high-end liquor market has been weak, leading to a continuous decline in retail prices for Feitian Moutai [1] Group 2 - As of January 1, 2025, the wholesale prices for individual and case bottles were 2220 yuan and 2315 yuan respectively, with current prices showing a cumulative decline of 440 yuan (approximately 20%) for individual bottles and over 485 yuan (over 20%) for cases [1] - E-commerce platforms are also reflecting poor sales, with some stores on Pinduoduo selling individual bottles for as low as 1760 yuan, indicating a significant drop in consumer purchasing willingness [1] - The recovery price for Feitian Moutai has also plummeted, with reports indicating a single bottle recovery price of only 1650 yuan, down nearly 100 yuan from the previous day [3] Group 3 - Recovery prices for cases and individual bottles are reported at 10200 yuan and 1650 yuan respectively, with some recovery merchants expressing financial losses due to the drastic price drops [3] - Merchants are now reluctant to stock up on Feitian Moutai, opting instead to sell what they have without accumulating inventory [3]

Group 1 - The implementation of the "Regulations on Practicing Thrift and Opposing Waste" has led to a continuous reduction in the demand for liquor from government sectors, negatively impacting both sentiment and consumption in the liquor sector [1] - Wuliangye (000858) reported good growth in the banquet market and bottle opening rates in the first half of the year, adapting its eighth generation product to market rhythms and enhancing terminal control capabilities through direct distribution in 20 key cities [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) is focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets and accelerating the development of mid- and low-alcohol innovative beverages, with a successful R&D of 28-degree Guojiao 1573 ready for market launch [1] - Jiugui Liquor (000799) is implementing a differentiated product strategy to meet diverse market demands, emphasizing cost-effectiveness through the launch of low-end, low-alcohol, and small-sized products [1] - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is low, with many liquor companies engaging in share buybacks or increases in holdings, and dividend payouts are continuously increasing, indicating potential for capital inflow as domestic demand policies are released [1] Group 2 - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy products, and seasoning [2] - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include major liquor brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, providing investors with a convenient tool for exposure to core assets in the "food and beverage" sector [2] - Compared to the high minimum investment thresholds of individual constituent stocks, the Food and Beverage ETF offers a more accessible investment option for smaller capital [2]

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 1.30 yuan per share for A shares, totaling 778,158,290 yuan (including tax) based on a total share capital of 600,000,000 shares, excluding 1,416,700 shares held in the repurchase account [2][3] - The dividend distribution plan was approved at the annual shareholders' meeting on May 20, 2025, and the record date for the dividend is set for July 4, 2025 [2][4] - The company will not issue bonus shares or increase capital from reserves in this distribution, and the reference price for ex-dividend trading will be adjusted accordingly [3][5] Dividend Distribution Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the record date [2][3] - The actual cash dividend per share after tax considerations is 1.17 yuan for shareholders subject to a 10% withholding tax [7][8] - Shareholders holding shares for more than one year will not be subject to individual income tax on the dividend [7] Implementation Method - The cash dividends for unrestricted circulating shares will be distributed through the clearing system of the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, while dividends for restricted shares will be paid directly by the company [5] - Shareholders who have not completed designated transactions will have their dividends held by the clearing company until the transactions are completed [5]

Group 1 - The company has approved a differentiated dividend distribution plan based on the total share capital after deducting shares held in the repurchase account, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 13.00 per 10 shares [2][3] - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to RMB 778,158,290.00 (including tax) [2] - The reference price for ex-dividend trading is calculated as (previous closing price - cash dividend), resulting in a reference price of RMB 33.44 per share [3][4] Group 2 - The differentiated dividend distribution complies with regulations stating that shares repurchased into a special account do not participate in profit distribution [3][4] - The impact of the differentiated dividend on the ex-dividend reference price is less than 1%, indicating minimal effect on market pricing [4] - The sponsor institution has verified that the differentiated dividend distribution adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no harm to the company or shareholders [4]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.2 times, positioned at the historical 74th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.2 times, at the historical 57th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.9 times, at the historical 13th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 136.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the spot price of the photovoltaic industry chain continues to decline, while the futures price of polysilicon has increased by 5.8% [2] - The price of silicon wafers has decreased by 1.4%, and the price of battery cells has remained stable [2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly installed wind power from January to May 2025 has increased by 134.2% [2] Financial Sector - Insurance companies' premium income from January to May 2025 has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three months [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar has remained stable, while the price of cement has decreased by 1.6% due to weak demand from real estate and traditional infrastructure projects [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has increased by 3.5%, while the wholesale price of pork has decreased by 0.5% [3] - The wholesale price index of liquor has decreased by 0.11% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of foreign contracted engineering business from January to May 2025 has increased by 5.4% [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 12.9%, closing at $67.31 per barrel [3] - The price of thermal coal has increased by 1.8%, closing at 620 yuan per ton [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on bottom opportunities in the liquor sector while pursuing growth in consumer goods. The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downturn, particularly in high-end consumption scenarios, leading to a decline in demand. The report suggests that leading liquor companies with strong brands and distribution channels are likely to adapt and transform successfully [3][11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - From June 23 to June 27, the food and beverage index declined by 0.9%, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.8 percentage points. The health products (+3.6%), baked goods (+2.7%), and seasoning and fermentation products (+1.2%) sectors performed relatively well [11][13] Market Performance - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with the impact of the "ban on alcohol" still felt. The lack of high-end consumption scenarios has further depressed industry demand. The report anticipates increased pressure on liquor companies' performance in the second quarter due to sluggish terminal sales and high channel inventory levels [3][11][12] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, which may alleviate cost pressures for companies in the beverage sector. For instance, the price of imported barley fell by 4.3% year-on-year in May 2025, and the quantity imported dropped by 47.8% [31][33] Recommended Companies - The report recommends gradually increasing positions in liquor stocks at low valuations, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu. It also highlights opportunities in consumer goods companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares, which are expected to benefit from new consumption trends [4][12][46]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent struggles of the leaders of the Chinese liquor industry, specifically Zhang Deqin of Kweichow Moutai and Zhang Liandong of Yanghe Brewery, highlighting their declining performance and market position [2][4][11]. Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai's chairman Zhang Deqin faced significant challenges shortly after taking office, with the price of Moutai liquor experiencing a sharp decline, leading to ongoing criticism of the company [4][6]. - Yanghe Brewery, under Zhang Liandong's leadership, saw revenue growth rates of 20.14% and 18.76% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, but faced a dramatic downturn in 2023 with a net profit loss of 187 million yuan [6][8]. - In 2024, Yanghe's revenue dropped by 12.83% year-on-year, and net profit plummeted by 33.37%, resulting in a loss of its position among the top three in the industry, overtaken by Shanxi Fenjiu [6][8]. Market Position - Yanghe Brewery's market position has deteriorated significantly, now ranking fifth in the industry, with the potential risk of being surpassed by Gujing Gongjiu [8][9]. - The company is facing increasing competition from established brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, which are aggressively capturing market share [9][10]. Challenges Faced - Yanghe Brewery is currently grappling with four major challenges: negative public sentiment, product quality concerns, ineffective management decisions, and marketing difficulties [9][10]. - The company's brand image has suffered due to widespread criticism, and management decisions, such as the launch of a new product line, have not been well received by the market [10]. Leadership Changes - Recent leadership changes at Yanghe Brewery, including the removal of Yang Weiguo from key positions, have raised questions about accountability and the future direction of the company [12][14]. - The article suggests that Zhang Liandong's time may be limited due to the company's poor performance and the scrutiny from local government [11][14].

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 金种子酒本周下跌4.18%，迎驾贡酒、古井贡酒周跌幅均超2.5%，加之股价微微下跌的口子窖——本 周，在白酒指数小幅下挫的背景下，四大徽酒企业股价出现全线下跌。 从本周白酒企业整体走势来看，徽酒企业表现相对低迷。在消费场景萎缩、消费需求不足以及白酒企业 纷纷去库存控价的背景下，徽酒品牌在省外市场的渗透率较低、品牌影响力不足的缺陷就暴露出来。 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者注意到，根据2025年一季报，徽酒企业省外收入占比均较低。比如口子 窖，其一季度安徽省外营收占比仅11.13%，迎驾贡酒和金种子酒同期省外营收占比也均未超过17%。 徽酒"老大"古井贡酒虽然持续推进全国化战略，但省外市场仍处于投入阶段，短期内难以带来显著增 长，加之省内竞争格局日益激烈，其他徽酒品牌正在加速抢占市场份额，经营正面临"内外交困"。 徽酒"老二"迎驾贡酒2025年一季度则遭遇省内和省外收入双重下滑。一方面，古井贡酒对其压制增强； 另一方面，省外市场拓展面临较大阻力，难以形成稳定的增长来源。 ETF资金入市或将托底白酒估值 在经历此前一周大幅反弹后，本周白酒指数小幅震荡整理。截至6月27日收盘，WI ...