Group 1 - Goldman Sachs suggests long-term investors should overweight gold and underweight oil over the next five years due to shifts in the global economic and financial landscape [1] - The recommendation to overweight gold is driven by concerns over the credibility of U.S. institutions and increasing global central bank demand for gold, reflecting worries about the reliability of the U.S. dollar [1][3] - The expansion of U.S. fiscal policy, rising debt levels, and the Federal Reserve's struggle to balance inflation and economic growth contribute to skepticism regarding U.S. institutional credibility [1][3] Group 2 - The importance of gold as a hedge against risk is emphasized, especially in the context of a weakening global economy and the potential for further dollar devaluation [3][4] - Historical data shows that gold tends to perform better than oil during periods of negative real returns in stocks and bonds, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [4] - The actions of prominent investors, such as Jim Rogers, who have moved away from U.S. equities in favor of cash and gold, signal a growing concern about the risks in the U.S. stock market [4][5]

高盛集团表示，预计石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)将在8月连续第四个月增加石油产量，改变了该 机构早前认为的OPEC+在周末会议后将暂停增产的观点。"相对吃紧的现货原油基本面、强于预期的全 球经济活动数据，以及夏季对原油需求的季节性支撑"均构成利好，包括Daan Struyven在内的分析师在 报告中指出。"预计需求放缓的幅度不足以在7月6日决定8月产量水平时阻止增产。" ...

高盛的逻辑关键在于时间节点。该行预计OPEC+在7月6日决定8月产量水平时，"预期的需求放缓不太 可能急剧到足以阻止增产"。但从9月开始情况将发生变化。届时，OPEC+将保持供应配额稳定， OPEC+以外的产量将增加，全球经济增长将在第三季度放缓。 摩根士丹利预见"三重打击"：连续增产将压低油价 与高盛的谨慎乐观形成对比，摩根士丹利描绘了一幅更为悲观的图景。 OPEC+在周末意外宣布第四轮连续增产后，华尔街两大投行对后市增产展望产生了严重分歧。 摩根士丹利分析师团队认为，OPEC+将在未来三个月内继续推进每月41.1万桶/日的增产步伐，其认为 配额增长与实际产量增长之间存在显著"脱节"。高盛则押注"一次性收官"，认为OPEC+只会在8月份再 进行一轮增产，随后便会暂停。 上周六，OPEC+决定自7月起日均增产41.1万桶，规模持平前两次增产。这也是OPEC+连续第四个月宣 布增产，该组织从今年4月起每月宣布增产，以回撤2023年宣布的自愿减产措施。 高盛押注"一次性收官" 高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在最新研报中指出了增产的三个支撑因素：相对紧张的现货石油基本面、 强劲的全球经济活动数据，以及夏季 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to undergo a significant adjustment due to the dual pressures of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a decline of approximately 9% by mid-2026, reaching a low of 91 points, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1][4]. Group 1: Key Drivers - The first key driver is the shift in Federal Reserve policy, which is anticipated to push real interest rates down. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will drop to 4.0% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by a cumulative 175 basis points, leading to a more significant decline in the benchmark rate range by 2026, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]. - The second driver is the restructuring of global trade patterns, which is reshaping the currency landscape. Policies such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not only impacted market confidence but have also prompted a reassessment of the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Current data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that bearish sentiment towards the dollar has not yet reached historical extremes, suggesting further potential weakness for the dollar [4]. Group 2: Currency Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about three non-USD currencies: the euro is expected to rise from the current exchange rate of 1.13 to 1.25, benefiting from the European Central Bank's cautious rate cuts and improved trade conditions due to falling energy prices; the Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven asset, may appreciate from 143 yen to 130 yen, particularly as the uncertainty from Trump’s trade policies continues to support its value; and the British pound is projected to increase from 1.35 to 1.45, driven by a relatively mild trade environment in the UK and the interest rate advantage from the current 5.25% policy rate [4]. - Additionally, JPMorgan's strategist team has also issued a bearish signal for the dollar, advising investors to short the dollar and favor currencies such as the yen, euro, and Australian dollar. During the Asian trading session, the dollar index continued its downward trend, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling by 0.2%, indicating potential for further selling pressure if key support levels are breached [5].

端午节假期的第一天，A股市场迎来了一则重磅消息，摩根士丹利（大摩）突然发表声明，将中概念股的评级上调至"与大牛市同步"。这一举动迅速引发了 市场的广泛关注，并无疑将在节后对A股市场产生深远影响。 摩根士丹利的乐观言论对A股和港股无疑是一个积极的信号。该机构的国际声誉使得其每一次的市场预测都具有极高的参考价值。尤其在目前经济复苏的背 景下，摩根士丹利的唱多势必会引导其他外资机构的投资决策，进而推动更多资金流入中国市场。 摩根士丹利作为全球知名的投资机构，其动向通常对市场产生巨大影响。这次的声音不仅为中概念股带来了巨大的市场关注，还可能通过吸引更多外资的涌 入，进一步推高中概念股的表现，进而为整体A股市场带来积极的促进作用。 摩根士丹利的乐观态度：外资涌入中国市场 在刚刚进入端午节假期时，摩根士丹利发布了对中概念股的乐观评估，将其评级上调至"与大牛市同步"。这一变化引起了市场的广泛讨论，相关信息迅速在 各大平台传播开来。根据摩根士丹利的分析，A股和港股市场都有潜力迎来更多外资的流入，特别是港股市场的前景被看好。大摩为此列出了三个关键信 号： 1. 大摩意外唱多A股和港股。这不仅仅是对A股和港股的乐观预测，更具有深 ...

来源|券商中国 美国关税"B计划"，刚刚曝光了！ 据美媒报道，美国联邦巡回上诉法院暂时恢复特朗普政府的关税措施之际，特朗普团队正在准 备"关税B计划"。其中第一步是考虑根据《1974年贸易法》的一项从未使用过的第122条款，对全 球大范围征收关税，这项条款包括允许政府在150天内征收高达15%的关税。 当地时间29日，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特和白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗也透露，即便美国国际贸易法 院"叫停"关税的裁决继续有效，特朗普政府也会用其他法律来实施关税政策。 特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性，打击了市场风险偏好，投机属性较强的加密货币遭到投资者抛 售，价格纷纷跳水。过去24小时内，比特币跌幅超过2%，以太坊、XRP跌超4%，Solana跌超 5%，狗狗币跌近10%。coinglass数据显示，24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓6.76亿美元，爆 仓人数超过20万人。其中，超九成为多单爆仓。 01 关税"B计划"曝光 当地时间5月28日，位于纽约的美国国际贸易法院裁定，美国政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》发 布对多国加征关税的行政令属越权行为，是非法的，禁止执行相关行政令。 随后在5月29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per ounce, with an expected price range of $3,650 to $3,950 under the baseline scenario [1] - The core factors supporting this more optimistic outlook include stronger-than-previously assumed demand for gold from global central banks and inflows of safe-haven funds, leading to an increase in the monthly gold purchase assumption from 70 tons to 80 tons [2] - Despite the new forecast, the current monthly purchase level remains below the post-2022 average peak of 86 tons, but is significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17 tons [2] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by the ongoing de-dollarization and sustained demand for gold from global central banks and financial institutions [5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, alongside the need for time for U.S. fiscal stimulus policies to take effect, may increase the impact of weakening macroeconomic data on the market [5] - In the context of a weak dollar and fluctuating trade negotiations, there remains strong demand for gold positioning at relatively low prices, with potential for gold prices to challenge $3,400 (795 yuan) or higher, while also facing resistance near previous highs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies, particularly in light of recent court rulings and the potential implementation of a "Tariff B Plan" to impose tariffs globally under new legal frameworks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff B Plan - The Trump team is preparing a "Tariff B Plan" which may involve utilizing Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs of up to 15% within 150 days [1][3]. - The plan also considers using Section 301 of the Trade Act, although this would involve a longer notification and discussion process [3][4]. - White House officials have indicated that they will pursue other legal avenues to implement tariff policies, regardless of court rulings [1][3]. Group 2: Court Rulings and Responses - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs was illegal, but this ruling was temporarily stayed by the U.S. Court of Appeals [2][3]. - White House Press Secretary and economic advisors have criticized the trade court's decision as judicial overreach and are seeking to overturn it [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has negatively impacted market risk appetite, leading to significant sell-offs in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin dropping over 2% and other cryptocurrencies experiencing declines of 4% to nearly 10% [1]. - A total of $676 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated within 24 hours, with over 200,000 traders affected, primarily from long positions [1]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump claims that tariffs have brought trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy and argues that the recent court ruling could lead to significant financial losses for the country [6]. - Analysts from Evercore ISI suggest that the Trump administration has the tools to restore tariffs even if they are ultimately canceled [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - UBS's Chief Investment Officer anticipates that the trade court's decision complicates tariff imposition and may weaken U.S. negotiating power in trade talks, but believes that significant tariffs can still be imposed in the long term [7]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6000 points by the end of the year, indicating potential market volatility due to trade and fiscal policy developments [7].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of dual listings in Hong Kong and A-shares is gaining momentum, driven by multiple factors such as asset revaluation in China, improved liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, and companies expanding overseas [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A growing number of high-quality A-share companies are listing in Hong Kong, attracting significant international long-term capital and leading to a shift from discount to premium for AH shares [2][3]. - Recent IPOs, such as CATL and Hengrui Medicine, have set records in Hong Kong, with both companies experiencing top-tier pricing and substantial oversubscription from international investors [3][4]. - The international investor interest in Chinese quality assets is reflected in the high demand for shares, with CATL's international offering attracting orders exceeding $50 billion, showcasing a coverage ratio of over 30 times [3][4]. Group 2: Valuation Trends - The recent performance of companies like CATL and Hengrui indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium for companies with core competitiveness and industry leadership, breaking the traditional discount phenomenon in the Hong Kong market [4][12]. - The valuation gap between A-shares and H-shares is narrowing, with some companies like WuXi AppTec and China Merchants Bank experiencing price inversions between the two markets [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The pipeline for IPOs in Hong Kong is robust, with 156 companies having submitted applications, including many A to H projects, indicating a diverse range of industries [5][8]. - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to continue, driven by the success of leading firms and the desire for international visibility and capital operations [8][9]. - The shift towards new economy sectors is evident, with the proportion of new economy companies in the Hong Kong market increasing significantly, from 1.3% in 2018 to approximately 14% by April this year [12].

Group 1 - The outlook for investment banking remains "quite optimistic" despite market disruptions caused by U.S. tariff policies and uncertainty in deal timelines [1] - Goldman Sachs has a strong pipeline of global transactions, with corporate clients still actively discussing mergers and financing [1] - There has been a 30% increase in large transactions valued over $500 million this year, indicating market resilience [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs is implementing extensive succession planning for approximately 300 senior positions within the company [2] - The firm is highly selective in its hiring process, with a less than 1% acceptance rate for experienced candidates out of 875,000 applicants [2] - There are signs of recovery in the commercial real estate market, which had previously faced challenges during the pandemic [2]