2026年将是英伟达股价的盘整之年。 2026 年，人工智能行业将从前期的爆发式增长阶段逐 步过渡到基础设施成熟期，而受全球贸易不确定性以及超大规模云服务商竞争加剧的影响，英 伟达将面临机遇与挑战并存的局面。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 值得关注的是，就在分析师上一次发布英伟达分析报告后不久，谷歌推出了全新的 Gemini 3 大模型。无论是机构分析师还是终端用户，对该模型的市场反馈都颇为积极。在分析师看来， Gemini 3 的问世，标志着谷歌在定制化芯片研发领域达成了一个重要的硬件里程碑 —— 该 模型是基于谷歌自研的张量处理器（TPU）完成训练的。经过数代迭代，这些自研芯片的性能 已发展到足以对英伟达人工智能显卡构成实质性威胁的水平。Gemini 3 大模型的训练同时采 用了第五代和第六代张量处理器（v5e 与 v6 版本）。 分析师毫不意外，下一代张量处理器（TPUv7）也将很快实现大规模应用。有报道称，脸书母 公司Meta（Meta Platforms, META）、人工智能公司 Anthropic 等核心客户，正与谷歌洽 谈采购这类张量处理器用于自身人工智能业务，这也印证了谷歌自研芯片的竞 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,774, down 0.11% for the day but up 28.49% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.69% to 5,488, with a year-to-date increase of 22.85% [1] - The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.16% to 48,442, with a year-to-date increase of 13.86% [1] - The S&P 500 Index increased by 0.46% to 6,909, marking a year-to-date rise of 17.48% [1] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil is priced at $62.08 per barrel, with a 1-month increase of 0.23% but a 6-month decline of 9.20% [2] - Gold is trading at $4,482.75 per ounce, up 8.36% over the past month and 33.07% over the past six months [2] - Silver has seen a significant increase of 35.24% in the last month and 92.43% over the last six months, priced at $69.482 per ounce [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 is reported at 4.3%, exceeding expectations and marking the fastest growth in two years [4][9] - The National Energy Administration reported a 52% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle charging infrastructure by the end of November [13] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and implementing a "current housing sales system" to mitigate delivery risks [14][15] Company-Specific News - Vanke (02202.HK) faces increased risk of default on $1.3 billion in debt, with creditors refusing to extend repayment terms [16] - Kuaishou (01024.HK) reported incidents of inappropriate content in live streams and has taken action to address the issue [17] - New World Development (00086.HK) is investing up to $100 million in acquiring JHG (JHG.US), a global asset management company [18] IPO and Market Activity - The recent IPO of Nobikang saw a dramatic increase of 363.75% on its first day, while another IPO, Hantse Aitai, dropped by 46.25% [28] - Upcoming IPOs include Lin Qingxuan in the beauty and skincare sector, with a proposed price of HKD 77.77 [28] Currency Performance - The Renminbi Index stands at 97.880, with a 1-month increase of 0.05% and a 6-month increase of 2.50% [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index is at 97.921, down 2.26% over the past month [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of Chengdu in the success of domestic GPU companies, particularly focusing on the impressive IPO performances of Moer Thread and Muxi, which have attracted substantial investor interest and returns [3][4]. Investment Success - Moer Thread, as the first domestic GPU stock, saw a first-day peak increase of over 500%, reaching a stock price of 688 yuan and a market capitalization exceeding 300 billion yuan [3]. - Muxi opened at 700 yuan, with a market cap surpassing 350 billion yuan, offering investors a maximum profit of 400,000 yuan per share, marking it as a rare "super meat ticket" [3]. - Chengdu High-tech Zone's state-owned capital invested 50 million yuan in Moer Thread and 150 million yuan in Muxi during the Pre-IPO phase, showcasing its strategic investment approach [3]. Historical Context - Chengdu High-tech Zone is the second-largest shareholder in Haiguang Information, a major chip giant, which has yielded returns in the hundreds of billions [4]. - The investment in Haiguang Information began in 2016 with an investment of approximately 813 million yuan, which was a bold move given the market's dominance by Intel and AMD at the time [6]. - Haiguang Information successfully launched its first CPU in 2018 and went public in 2022, raising 10.8 billion yuan, marking the largest IPO in the semiconductor sector that year [6][7]. Strategic Investment Approach - Chengdu's investment strategy has evolved from traditional land and tax incentives to a model of "investment to attract" by providing equity investments [11]. - The establishment of Haiguang Information in Chengdu filled a critical gap in the local semiconductor industry, particularly in chip design [11][12]. - The investment in Haiguang has led to the creation of a complete industrial chain in Chengdu, enhancing its position in the national semiconductor industry [14]. Future Prospects - The successful investments in Moer Thread and Muxi are seen as a continuation of Chengdu's strategic focus on the semiconductor industry, with a strong emphasis on attracting R&D centers [18][19]. - Chengdu High-tech Zone has established various funds to support digital economy and AI industries, indicating a commitment to long-term investment in technology [20].

Group 1 - Hubei Xinqing Technology Co., Ltd. is planning to go public in Hong Kong, as indicated by its association with Rui Pai Pet Hospital's independent non-executive director, who is also the vice president and listing affairs head of Xinqing Technology [2] - The company aims to apply for an IPO this year and successfully list next year, as stated by its founder and CEO, Dr. Wang Kai [3] - Founded in 2018, Xinqing Technology focuses on high-performance automotive-grade chips and solutions, with products already utilized by major automotive companies such as Geely, FAW Hongqi, and Dongfeng [3] Group 2 - Xinqing Technology is the only domestic company capable of mass-producing 7nm automotive-grade smart cockpit chips, with its "Longying No. 1" chip achieving the highest market share among domestic peers in 2024 [3] - The company has become a key supplier for both smart cockpit and smart driving SoCs, with its products covering major global markets and securing significant overseas orders from Volkswagen for core models in South America and India [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI investment has achieved a closed loop, prompting overseas companies to increase their AI-related investments, with domestic GPU manufacturers catching up to international standards [1] - The demand for GPUs is catalyzed by the development of large models, as GPUs are more suitable for parallel computing tasks compared to CPUs, making them essential for AI training and inference [1] - The evolution of large language models follows the Scaling Law, indicating that their capabilities heavily rely on massive computing power, which will continue to drive AI applications [1] Group 2 - Major overseas companies, particularly in North America, are significantly increasing their AI investments, with Nvidia maintaining a dominant position in the global market [2] - Nvidia's GPU products have shown remarkable performance improvements, with the GB200 achieving training performance four times that of the H100 and inference performance thirty times that of the H100 [2] - The commercial viability of AI investments is being realized as large model users transition to paying customers, as evidenced by Google's token usage growth [2] Group 3 - The U.S. has expanded export restrictions on high-end GPUs, which has led to increased support for domestic computing power industries in China [3] - Several domestic companies, such as Cambricon and Haiguang Information, are launching AI computing chip products and are gradually catching up to international standards [3] - The profitability of domestic GPU companies varies, with Haiguang Information achieving profitability in 2021, while others like Moore Threads and Muxi are still in the early stages of commercialization [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market closed early on December 24 due to the holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.17% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.19% [2] - Nuclear power stocks led the gains, with China General Nuclear Power Corporation rising over 5%; semiconductor stocks also performed well, with SMIC and Jingmen Semiconductor both up over 3%, and Huahong Semiconductor and Shanghai Fudan rising over 1% [2] - Other sectors that saw strength included dairy products, electrical equipment, food, non-ferrous metals, building materials, cement, and gold, while sectors such as film, lithium batteries, home appliances, domestic banks, port transportation, and innovative drugs were underperforming [2] Group 2 - Technology stocks experienced slight fluctuations, with Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD.com, and Baidu all declining by less than 1% [3] - Individual stock movements included a 22.23% increase for Baidu's stock after being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while Youjia Innovation fell over 7% and Cai Xing Toys dropped over 14% [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market will be closed all day on December 25 and 26 for the Christmas holiday [4]

Group 1 - The storage chip sector experienced significant fluctuations, with companies like Shengyi Technology and Kuaike Intelligent reaching new highs during intraday trading [2] - Yintan Zhikong saw an increase of over 15%, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] - Other companies such as Beijing Junzheng, Xiangnong Chip Creation, Xice Testing, Nanya New Materials, Maiwei Co., Jiangbolong, and Baiao Chemical also showed upward trends [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive atmosphere before Christmas, with all three major indices rising. The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.17% to close at 25,818.93 points, with a total turnover of HKD 92.524 billion [1] - CITIC Securities believes that after a one-sided rise in September, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced fluctuations since October due to changing overseas macro expectations. Currently, quality assets in the Hong Kong market are entering a high cost-performance ratio zone, supported by continuous capital inflow and improved profit expectations [1] Blue Chip Performance - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 3.12% to HKD 71.05, contributing 15.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company has implemented a price increase of approximately 10% on some of its production capacity [2][4] - Other notable blue-chip performances include China Hongqiao (01378) up 2.34%, and CK Infrastructure (01038) up 1.83%. However, Haier Smart Home (06690) and Alibaba Health (00241) saw declines of 2.32% and 1.53%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - The semiconductor sector saw most stocks rise, with notable increases from companies like Jingmen Semiconductor (02878) up 3.53% and Huahong Semiconductor (01347) up 1.64%. The price increase by SMIC is attributed to rising raw material costs and strong demand driven by mobile applications and AI [3][4] - Nickel-related stocks were active, with Likin Resources (02245) rising by 11.44% and Xinjiang Xinmin Mining (03833) up 7.42%. This activity is linked to Indonesia's reduction in nickel production targets to stabilize prices [5] - Dairy stocks also performed well, with Yurun Dairy (09858) up 7.34% and Modern Dairy (01117) up 6.9%. The Chinese government's anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy imports are expected to enhance the competitive position of domestic dairy producers [6] Notable Stock Movements - Baiaosaitu-B (02315) saw a significant increase of 22.23% to HKD 35.08, following adjustments in the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligibility [7] - Yujian (02432) rebounded by 9.41% to HKD 31.62 after a recent unlock of shares, with the company launching a new AI-driven household robot [8] - Zai Ding Pharmaceutical (09688) rose by 6.24% to HKD 14.48 after receiving approval for a new schizophrenia treatment, marking a significant breakthrough in the field [9] - CGN Mining (01164) continued its upward trend, increasing by 5.02% to HKD 3.35, supported by forecasts of rising uranium prices [10]

Core Insights - The AI hardware sector is experiencing significant growth, with key players like Nvidia and its supply chain companies reaching new historical highs in stock prices [1][3][5] - Nvidia plans to deliver its H200 AI chips to Chinese customers by mid-February 2024, with an expected shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 modules, translating to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 chips [1] - The GB300 server series from Nvidia is expected to see a substantial increase in shipments, with a projected 129% year-on-year growth, reaching 55,000 units in 2024 [2] Nvidia's Supply Chain Developments - Nvidia's core suppliers, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Yingweike, have also achieved record stock prices, indicating strong market performance [5] - Zhongji Xuchuang has validated both EML and silicon photonics solutions with key clients, suggesting a potential increase in market share and profit margins [5] - Yingweike has made inroads into the North American market and is expected to secure a share of Nvidia's supply chain [5][6] Market Competition and Growth - The competition in the AI computing market is intensifying, with Google's TPU business posing challenges to Nvidia; however, this competition is expected to drive down computing costs and accelerate technological innovation across the industry [2] - Analysts predict that 26 Nvidia-related stocks will see net profit growth exceeding 25% in 2026 and 2027, indicating strong future performance [6] Stock Performance and Predictions - Zhongji Xuchuang has seen a remarkable increase of over 400% in stock price this year, with 32 instances of reaching historical highs [3][7] - Other notable stocks in the Nvidia ecosystem, such as Weichuang Technology and Maigemeite, are also projected to have significant net profit growth, with respective predictions of 69.82% and 111.25% for the next year [7]

英伟达可能获得约70亿至125亿美元的额外收入，对应2026年非GAAP每股收益或提升约0.15至0.30美元。"利奥波德重申对英伟达 的"强力买入"评级，对AMD的"跑赢大盘"评级。 若顺利获得政府批准，英伟达计划于明年2月中旬起向中国市场交付其H200系列GPU。 据三位知情人士透露，这批GPU有望在农历新年前完成首批出货。其中两位消息人士表示，首批订单将主要依托现有库存，出货规模预 计为5000—10000块模组，对应约40000—80000颗H200芯片。 投资机构Raymond James公司认为，英伟达(NVDA.US)和AMD(AMD.US)可能从中国市场获得温和的增长潜力。 分析师西蒙·利奥波德在致客户报告中写道："目前仍存在多个不确定因素，难以精确评估最终结果，但在机会性情景下，我们预计AMD 可能获得约5亿至8亿美元的额外收入，非GAAP每股收益或提升约0.10至0.20美元; 知情人士指出，在取得政府审批后，英伟达将进一步扩充产能，相关产能订单将于2026年第二季度开始接受。 周一有报道称，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)正考虑采购4万至5万个AMD的MI308 AI加速器。利奥波德指出，阿里 ...