Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week (September 8 - 12, 2025), the bond market experienced significant volatility and adjustment, showing a pattern of "falling first and then stabilizing." The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through the 1.8% key point, reaching a new high since April. The adjustment was mainly driven by the public - fund fee - rate new rules and the strong performance of the stock market [1]. - The current bond market is in a headwind period. Although the first pressure point of 1.8% has been broken through, in the long - term, the bond market has a certain basis for recovery as this breakthrough is mainly due to the stock market's strong sentiment and bond - fund redemption shocks rather than a fundamental shift in the fundamentals [2]. - There are four catalysts for the bond market in the fourth quarter: the possible restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, the potential Fed rate cut in September, the continued pressure on the fundamentals, and the ongoing Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - rate Bond Last - week Data Review - **Funds Rate**: From September 8 - 12, the funds rate first rose and then fell, with an overall slight increase compared to the previous week. DR001 closed at 1.36% on September 12, R001 closed at 1.40%, DR007 closed at 1.46%, and FR007 closed at 1.46% [8]. - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase net investment was 196.1 billion yuan last week, and it announced a 600 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 15 [1]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The Sino - US 6 - month interest - rate spread was - 222BP, and the 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 209BP and - 214BP respectively, with the inversion narrowing [15]. - **Term Spread**: The Chinese bond term spread remained basically unchanged, while the US bond term spread slightly decreased. The 10 - 2 - year spread of Chinese bonds was 44BP, and that of US bonds was 50BP [15]. - **Interest - rate Term Structure**: The Chinese bond yield curve remained basically unchanged, while the US bond yield curve had its middle section slightly move up [16]. 2. Real - estate High - frequency Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: The transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained in a low - level volatile state. The average daily transaction area was 64,400 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was 610 units. September 12 was the weekly high, and September 14 was the weekly low [23]. - **Top Ten Cities**: The transaction data of commercial housing in the top ten cities rebounded compared to the previous week, with an average daily transaction area of about 94,000 square meters, an increase of about 9,500 square meters per day compared to the previous week [23]. - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The commercial - housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 190,000 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was about 1,728 units. September 11 was the weekly peak [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market declined in the first four trading days and rebounded slightly on Friday. The pressure for bond futures adjustment mainly came from concerns about fund redemption fees and the cancellation of tax exemptions for funds. Funds became the main force in selling off. There were rumors of large - scale redemptions by major banks and the suspension of the release of redemption and subscription details. However, after the redemption ended, the funds of bond funds returning to proprietary trading would still be a source of allocation for the bond market. In the first half of the week, the market adjusted rapidly, with extremely fragile sentiment and high pressure to sell off in advance, and insufficient market support, leading the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds to rise above 1.8% and 2% respectively. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved marginally due to incremental news, including rumors of the Ministry of Finance's dissatisfaction with the rising yields and communication with the central bank, discussions among major banks, the Financial Department of the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank about restarting treasury bond purchases, a 600 - billion - yuan outright repurchase operation by the central bank, and weaker - than - expected August financial data [4]. - Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stabilizing capital market with reduced capital rotation between the stock and bond markets, and the attractiveness of bond yields after the previous adjustment. In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for the domestic economy. With the marginal decline of the economic driving effect of land finance and debt, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, are expected to sustain the bullish bond market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Market performance: The market declined in the first four trading days of this week and rebounded slightly on Friday. The adjustment pressure of bond futures was mainly due to concerns about funds, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved due to multiple incremental news [4]. - Market data: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, weekly trading volumes, and weekly open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509.CFE, TL2512.CFE, etc. [5] - Outlook: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is currently supported by three factors, and in the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals remain favorable for bond futures [8] PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple graphs related to liquidity, including those on open - market operations (money supply, money withdrawal, and net money supply), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, and various interest rates such as deposit - based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and upper - exchange pledged repurchase rates [11][12][14] PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on various arbitrage indicators of treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market adjusted, with the yield curve steepening and shifting upward. The long - term bond yields first rose and then fell, showing an overall increase. The short - term interest rates had a smaller increase than the long - term ones. This week, the bond market may stabilize, but a trend - based recovery is unlikely. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.80% [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market adjusted last week. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.19% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.10bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 0.41bp compared to the previous Friday, with the term spread widening [4]. - On September 8th, the bond market was weak due to a strong stock market and concerns about bond fund scale reduction. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2.54bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.21% [4]. - On September 9th, the bond market remained weak due to concerns about redemption fees and tightened liquidity. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.27bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.06% [4]. - On September 10th, although the morning sentiment improved due to lower - than - expected inflation data, the bond market weakened significantly in the afternoon. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 3.51bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.27% [4]. - On September 11th, the bond market recovered due to improved liquidity and rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases. The 10 - year Treasury yield fell 2.49bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.07% [4]. - On September 12th, the bond market was slightly bullish due to loose liquidity, a falling stock market, and the central bank's over - renewal of repurchase agreements. The 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.73bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.06% [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 83 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1034.5 billion yuan, a net financing of 435 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds decreased [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally good. The average subscription multiples for Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 3.37, 2.92, and 20.81 times respectively [11]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In August, the export growth rate declined. The export value increased 4.4% year - on - year, 2.8 percentage points lower than in July. The import value increased 1.3% year - on - year, also 2.8 percentage points lower than in July. The export slowdown was mainly due to a higher base and a significant decline in exports to the US [12]. - In August, the CPI turned negative year - on - year, falling 0.4%. The PPI fell 2.9% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month rate. The CPI decline was mainly due to a high food price base last year, and the PPI's flat month - on - month rate was affected by policies and international commodity prices [12]. - In August, new RMB loans returned to positive growth, with 590 billion yuan in new loans. New social financing was 2569.3 billion yuan. M2 grew 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 grew 6.0% year - on - year. The growth in new loans was due to improved economic sentiment and increased credit demand [12][13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production data increased, including the semi - steel tire, blast furnace, and asphalt plant operating rates, as well as daily hot - metal production. On the demand side, the BDI index rose, while the CCFI continued to decline. The 30 - city property sales area decreased. Pork and most commodity prices rose, except for the fluctuating decline in rebar prices [14]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 196.1 billion yuan. The R007 and DR007, inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and national and stock direct - discount rates all rose. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated downward [24][26][30].

Market Overview - The funding environment was tight at the beginning of the week but eased later, maintaining overall balance [1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to news regarding fund fee rate adjustments and potential cancellation of tax exemptions for bond funds, leading to a rise in yields [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1.8%, reaching a new high since April, before retreating later in the week due to weak export and financial data, as well as rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [1][4] Yield Changes - As of September 12, 2025, the yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (0.41BP), 2-year (2.14BP), 3-year (0.97BP), 5-year (0.18BP), 7-year (2.25BP), 10-year (4.1BP), 30-year (7.15BP), and 50-year (7.75BP) compared to September 5, 2025 [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - On Monday, the bond market weakened due to new fund fee regulations, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.784% [4] - On Tuesday, significant redemptions in index bond funds led to a quick rise in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.795% [4] - By Wednesday, the yield peaked at 1.8325% before slightly retreating to 1.815% [4] - On Thursday, rumors of the central bank's bond purchases helped restore market sentiment, causing yields to drop [4] - By Friday, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to further yield declines [4] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 83 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 10,345.42 billion yuan, including 5,663.70 billion yuan in government bonds [8] - For the upcoming week (September 15-19, 2025), 69 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 5,005.19 billion yuan [8] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight rebound after reaching multi-month lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.06% [9] - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [10][12] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations last week, resulting in a net injection of 1,961 billion yuan [13] - An announcement was made for a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for September 15, 2025 [13] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [15] - The total social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [16] Institutional Perspectives - Huazhong Securities noted that the bond market sentiment remains fragile, with potential opportunities for long-term investments despite current volatility [19] - Financial institutions suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term and long-term government bonds [19]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese bond market** and its relationship with **global liquidity** and **economic conditions** [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current Market Dynamics**: The Chinese asset pricing logic is influenced by both domestic fundamentals and global liquidity conditions, leading to confusion in the bond market as the stock market remains strong [1][2]. - **2026 Bond Market Outlook**: The team holds a pessimistic view on the Chinese bond market for 2026, indicating a bear market risk and adjusting previous bullish predictions. The anticipated low for the ten-year government bond yield is now projected at **1.6%** [1][6]. - **Impact of Trade War**: The ongoing US-China trade war has accelerated the international expansion of Chinese companies, particularly in capital goods exports to emerging markets, which has mitigated the trade war's negative impacts [1][9]. - **2025 Bond Market Predictions**: The bond market is expected to exhibit volatility in 2025, with the ten-year government bond yield potentially stabilizing around **1.6%**. The social financing sector remains a crucial factor in determining bond market pricing [10]. - **Global Economic Recovery**: A rebound in global demand is anticipated in 2026, driven by monetary and fiscal easing in developed economies, which will likely enhance capital expenditures in non-US economies and stimulate overseas demand [11][15]. - **Inflation and Financial Conditions**: The relationship between internal and external inflation is critical. The current low internal inflation in China contrasts with rising external inflation, necessitating attention to liquidity changes and their effects on asset prices [17][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Export Performance**: Contrary to expectations of a significant decline due to the trade war, Chinese exports have exceeded forecasts, particularly in capital goods aimed at regions like Africa and Latin America [7][8][18]. - **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: Historical patterns suggest that while property prices may not see significant rebounds, sales and investment in real estate could exhibit greater elasticity, potentially impacting the bond market [23]. - **Policy Implications**: The effectiveness of fiscal policy in addressing potential deflation in 2024 will depend on its proactive nature. If the real estate market becomes an endogenous variable in economic growth, external demand will play a crucial role in driving domestic growth [14][21]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the complexities of the Chinese bond market amid global economic shifts, trade tensions, and evolving domestic conditions. The insights provided suggest a cautious approach to investment in bonds, with a focus on external demand and inflation dynamics as key determinants of future market behavior.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and its relationship with macroeconomic data, focusing on the current state of the bond market and future trends. Key Points and Arguments Bond Market Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Data - The bond market has become desensitized to macroeconomic data due to strong market expectations of weak economic recovery, central bank interest rate cuts, and increased fiscal support, making short-term data fluctuations less impactful [1][3][8] - The bond market's reaction to macroeconomic indicators like GDP, CPI, and PMI has diminished, with current trading focused on future scenarios rather than present data [3][4][8] - The market is currently pricing in expectations of insufficient effective demand and unresolved deflationary pressures, leading to a consensus that short-term data will not significantly alter the outlook [3][4][8] Interest Rate Trends - Anti-involution and de-real estate policies are expected to push the interest rate center upwards by approximately 10-15 basis points annually, with the long-term bond yield potentially stabilizing around 1.5% [10][11] - The bond market is experiencing a "slow bear" phase, where liquidity premium opportunities and fiscal policy effectiveness may outweigh current macroeconomic fundamentals [11][12] Stock-Bond Interaction - There is a significant stock-bond interaction, with the Shanghai Composite Index's movements directly affecting 10-year government bond yields, averaging a 4 basis point change for every 100-point shift in the index [25] - The current market environment shows a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, influenced by redemption pressures and investor behavior [5][7] Future Market Predictions - If the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.0%, it may signal an end to the interest rate bottoming process, contingent on the successful implementation of anti-involution and de-real estate policies [13] - The bond market's future trajectory will be influenced by liquidity conditions, institutional behavior, and policy directions rather than solely macroeconomic data [7][11] Current Economic Indicators - August's social financing growth slightly declined but remains high, with government debt share increasing and M1 growth reaching a yearly high, indicating improved monetary transaction vitality [21][22] - CPI and PPI data suggest some recovery in domestic demand, but external demand remains weak, and fiscal support is still under observation [23][24] Redemption Pressures - Concerns about large-scale redemptions exist, linked to liquidity issues, which could lead to rising long-term interest rates and significant adjustments in credit bond yields [26] - Historical data shows that the bond market has experienced multiple significant declines since 2022, with a notable pattern of pre-dip "shadow declines" [27][28] Market Recovery Post-Dip - After a bond market dip, there is typically a weak sentiment initially, but recovery generally occurs within an average of 7 trading days, with cumulative recovery around 10 basis points [29] Short-Term Trading Opportunities - The upcoming week may present left-side trading opportunities, suggesting that investors should prepare to capture potential rebounds [30] Other Important Insights - The bond market's desensitization is seen as a phase that could change if multiple economic indicators show consistent strong improvement [9] - The relationship between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial, with the potential for fiscal measures to drive economic recovery if inflation remains under control [20]

2018年初至今，10年期国债到期收益率从接近4.0%一路震荡下行至1.60%附近，下行幅度近240个BP。尽管期 间也出现过2020年5-7月和2022年11-12月这样的调整，但整体并未改变债券牛市格局。 下半年以来，A股持续走高，而持续数年牛市的债券市场却风云突变，大幅调整。30年期国债期货主力合约 下半年以来下跌逾4%。股债跷跷板效应显现。 最近几个月，A股市场一路高歌猛进，与之相伴的是债券市场的持续调整。上周，银行间主要利率债收益率 上行，10年期国债收益率一度站上1.8%。 在债券市场上，债券收益率与债券价格成反比：当收益率走低时，债券价格上升，债市走牛。债券价格等于 未来现金流的现值总和，收益率上升会导致现值下降。 漫画：王建明 深圳商报记者 陈燕青 外资依然看好中国资产。国际金融协会最新发布的报告显示，8月份外国投资者向新兴市场股票和债券投资组 合投入近450亿美元，创下近一年来的最高规模。具体而言，8月中国债券和股票上个月合计净流入390亿美 元，中国以外新兴市场债券吸引了132亿美元的资金流入。 外资机构对中国债券市场的配置策略正呈现明显的中长期特征。央行数据显示，截至上半年末，境外机构在 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 12, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 230 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing on the same day was 188.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overnight repurchase weighted average rate for deposit institutions slightly decreased by less than 1 basis point, remaining at 1.35% [3] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight funds using certificates of deposit and credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping to around 1.40% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US was reported at 4.39% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was approximately 1.6764% [7] Group 4: Treasury Futures Closing - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.38%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.06% [13] - The 5-year main contract saw a slight increase of 0.01%, whereas the 2-year main contract fell by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Economic Indicators - The Minister of Finance announced that the general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, an increase of 24% compared to the previous plan [14] - The central bank reported that the social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] - The broad money (M2) balance reached 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [15] Group 6: Global Macro - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its current policy, indicating that inflation pressures have been effectively contained and the Eurozone economy remains stable [17] Group 7: Bond Market Events - Recent negative events in the bond market include significant lawsuits and downgrades in implied ratings for various companies, such as Suning and Zhonghai [19]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the bond market have sparked discussions, with the China Bond Index falling by 1.11% from August 1 to September 12, and the 10-year government bond yield rising above 1.8%. Despite these short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for the bond market remains positive due to various supportive factors [1]. Group 1: Financial Environment - A loose monetary policy environment is fostering a favorable financial backdrop for the bond market, with the People's Bank of China maintaining liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. The central bank's commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to continue providing liquidity support for the bond market [2]. Group 2: Buyer Support - The "buying power" supporting the stable operation of the bond market remains unchanged. Despite recent adjustments influenced by various factors, the demand for bond investments from residents in bank wealth management, public funds, and insurance products is increasing, leading financial institutions to enhance their bond allocations [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Support - Regulatory authorities are actively ensuring the healthy operation of the bond market, which is crucial for macroeconomic stability. The continuous improvement of bond market regulations has significantly enhanced market transparency and resilience, which will support the long-term health of the bond market [4]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Improvement - The ongoing improvement in the macroeconomic environment is expected to alleviate investor concerns regarding credit risks in the bond market. As growth stabilization policies take effect, corporate profitability and cash flow are anticipated to improve, thereby reducing the risk of credit defaults [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated part of the new local government debt quota for 2026, with a theoretical scale of 3.12 trillion yuan. There is no clear evidence that the debt - resolution quota for 2026 will be issued in advance in 2025 [3]. - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local bonds in the next period will decrease significantly [3]. - The issuance of new local bonds in the current period accelerated. The current cumulative issuance progress is higher than that of the same period in 2024 but lower than that of the same period in 2023 [3]. - The scale of local bonds planned to be issued in September 2025 is 726.5 billion yuan, of which new special bonds are 440.1 billion yuan [3]. - In the current period, 114.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, 20 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued, and 6.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued [3]. - In the current period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds widened, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month. Currently, the cost - performance of exploring the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds is not high [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period's Local Bond Issuance Volume Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local bonds in the current period (September 8 - 14, 2025) was 301.671 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan (93.391 billion yuan/36.709 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (September 15 - 21, 2025) is 188.519 billion yuan/30.945 billion yuan [3]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period was 17.84 years, longer than 13.11 years in the previous period [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 79.4% and 77.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 82.0% and 79.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 72.2%/67.5% and 77.1%/71.7%, and in 2023 it was 84.6%/80.5% and 85.6%/81.6% [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed that the scale of local bonds planned to be issued in September 2025 is 726.5 billion yuan in total, including 440.1 billion yuan of new special bonds. In the same period last year, the issuance in the same regions was 943.2 billion yuan and 753.6 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 1284.3 billion yuan and 1027.9 billion yuan respectively [3]. - As of September 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1098.6 billion yuan (114.4 billion yuan issued in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1953.4 billion yuan (20 billion yuan issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 97.7%, and 30 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Hunan was added in the current period); at the same time, Guizhou issued a special refinancing bond for repaying existing debts with a scale of 6.2 billion yuan in the current period [3]. 3.2 The Spreads between 10Y and 30Y Local Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened in the Current Period, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased Month - on - Month - As of September 12, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.30BP and 17.60BP respectively, widening by 1.90BP and 2.85BP compared with September 5, 2025 (17.40BP and 14.75BP on September 5, 2025), and were at the 51.40% and 69.40% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.68% in the previous period on a month - on - month basis. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin were better than the national average [3]. - Taking the 10 - year local bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [3].