Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2025 and analyzes the current economic situation, setting specific policy arrangements and goals for 2026 [1] - The conference emphasizes the need for a "good start" to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for China's economic growth rate to be around 5% in 2026, as international organizations have raised their growth forecasts for China [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for the 14th Five-Year Plan will continue to adopt a "more proactive" approach, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits while optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures [2][3] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain at or above 4%, with a total debt scale projected to increase from 12 trillion yuan this year [2][3] - There is a clear focus on "investing in people," with an emphasis on improving human capital and enhancing social welfare expenditures [3] Monetary Policy - The macroeconomic policy will adopt a more proactive stance, with monetary policy expected to remain "appropriately loose" and maintain ample liquidity [4][5] - The use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, will be implemented flexibly and efficiently to support economic stability [4][5] - Structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [5] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific measures including the implementation of a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income and stabilize investment [6] - The focus on consumption and investment as key drivers for expanding domestic demand indicates a shift towards demand-side strategies [6] Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is highlighted as a core strategy for fostering innovation [7][9] - The centers aim to leverage existing resources and address global technological competition, enhancing China's position in the global market [7][9] Market Reforms - The conference emphasizes the need for reforms to optimize the market environment, stimulate enterprise vitality, and deepen financial system support [10] - A key reform initiative includes the establishment of a unified national market, with a focus on improving the regulatory framework to support this goal [10] Capital Market Development - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing the market's ability to serve technological innovation and the real economy [11][12] - The reforms will aim to improve the inclusiveness and coverage of the multi-tiered market system, facilitating the entry of long-term capital [12] Trade and Investment - The conference stresses the importance of promoting regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements to enhance cooperation and trade facilitation [14][15] - The focus on maintaining a multilateral trade system and expanding high-standard free trade agreements is seen as crucial for China's trade strategy [14][15] Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting underscores the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with a particular emphasis on "de-stocking" as a key measure [16][17] - Encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing purposes is identified as a significant strategy to address market challenges [17]

文|有风 编辑|有风 景林资产管理合伙人高云程在客户交流会上扔出一句话，把在场不少人听愣了，"现在市场就像夏天穿 棉袄，一边热得冒汗，一边冻得发抖。" 这话不假，最近走一圈市场就能发现，白酒经销商仓库里的货堆到天花板，AI芯片公司的订单却排到 了年底。 高端白酒批发价跌了小半年，有经销商吐槽，以前一箱酒赚的钱够吃顿饭，现在赚的只够买包烟。 核心城市二手房更不用说，挂牌量创新高，买家却拿着放大镜挑毛病，砍价砍得房东直摇头。 这边传统行业愁眉苦脸，那边新经济却在狂欢。 AI产业链的公司最近忙着扩产能，有光模块企业老板说，车间24小时连轴转，还是赶不上订单节奏。 新能源储能项目也火，以前找政策支持，现在各地政府主动上门谈合作。 为啥会这样？高云程觉得，这不是短期波动，是经济在换"发动机"。 旧的引擎转不动了，新的引擎刚启动，中间难免有点"换挡顿挫"。 就像开车，踩油门的瞬间，转速上去了，速度还没完全起来。 AI模型迭代快得吓人，听说景林内部都在用AI整理会议纪要，以前两小时的活儿，现在十分钟搞定。 新能源更不用说，中国企业从电池到整车，产业链一条龙，成本和效率在全球都是数一数二的。 高云程判断，今年货币政策会宽松， ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities, reaching 49,000 units in November, is primarily driven by price reductions, with sellers often accepting prices 15% lower than their expectations [1][3] - The market is experiencing a shift in buyer sentiment, moving from a wait-and-see approach to a willingness to negotiate due to perceived value in declining prices [1][3] Market Dynamics - The increase in transaction volume is likened to a seasonal sale, where the influx of buyers is a response to significant price discounts rather than an increase in purchasing power [3] - The rise in second-hand housing listings from 67,000 at the beginning of the year to 89,000 in November indicates a growing supply, leading to increased buyer options and negotiation power [3] Inventory and Pricing - Despite the uptick in transactions, housing prices continue to decline, with a reported month-on-month drop of 1.15% in first-tier cities from June to November [1][5] - The concept of "broad inventory" includes unsold properties and projects that have not yet started construction, with some second-tier cities facing a de-stocking period exceeding five years [5][6] Policy Responses - The government is shifting its focus from stimulating price increases to stabilizing the market and gradually reducing inventory, as indicated in the 2025 government work report [5][6] - Local governments are utilizing special bonds to purchase existing housing stock, which helps developers recover funds and reduces market supply [6] Financial Environment - Mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers have reached historical lows, and many cities have relaxed down payment requirements, aiming to ease the financial burden on genuine homebuyers [8] - Banks are exercising caution in lending, emphasizing strict income verification to mitigate risks [9] Market Outlook - The current market is characterized as a "buyer’s market," where price declines are driven by excess inventory, and the focus is on genuine housing needs rather than speculative investments [12] - The ongoing process of "squeezing out excess" from the market is painful, reflected in falling prices and distressed sales, but is necessary for a return to value based on real demand and income [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, affirmed the economic performance and policy effectiveness during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing a stable yet progressive approach for 2026 to achieve qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [1][3]. Economic Performance and Policy Effectiveness - The conference recognized the resilience of China's economy amid multiple pressures, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, surpassing the annual target of around 5.0% [3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of internal capacity building to address external challenges, reflecting a confident stance on China's economic trajectory [3]. Macroeconomic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 will maintain three key orientations: more proactive fiscal policy, moderately loose monetary policy, and a consistent macro policy framework [5][6]. - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain stable, while the scale of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds will increase to support infrastructure and innovation projects [5][6]. Focus on Domestic Demand - The conference emphasized the need to strengthen domestic demand as a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at boosting consumer spending and increasing residents' income [9]. - Specific measures include implementing consumption promotion actions and enhancing policies to improve consumer capacity and willingness [9]. Technological Innovation - The meeting underscored the importance of technological innovation as a key focus, aiming to cultivate new growth drivers and enhance development advantages [11]. - Future initiatives will include developing a comprehensive plan for education and talent in technology, establishing international innovation centers, and optimizing the industrial structure [11]. Real Estate Market Stability - The conference addressed the need to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks, with a focus on promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [12][14]. - Key strategies include reforming the housing provident fund system and implementing policies to support the market's recovery [12][14]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting shifted the focus from merely stabilizing foreign trade and investment to promoting win-win cooperation across multiple fields [16]. - Future efforts will include expanding service sector openness, fostering new trade dynamics, and enhancing bilateral and regional cooperation [16][17].

近几年，房价像坐过山车一样，上下波动让很多人心慌。有人还在观望，有人已经入手，但有一点几乎 可以肯定：如果2026年房价继续下跌，中国近一半的家庭可能会遇到大麻烦。可别以为跌价只是资产缩 水那么简单，里面隐藏的问题可能比你想象的更棘手。 1、房产负担可能加重，按揭压力变得更明显 很多家庭都背着房贷，房贷本身就是一个长期负担。如果房价下跌，手里还有贷款的家庭会感受到明显 的压力。原本打算靠房子升值来抵消贷款压力的想法，可能就落空了。 拿普通家庭举例，买房时首付30%，贷款70%，按揭周期30年。房价下跌了10%-20%，意味着房子的实 际价值低于贷款余额。银行依然按合同收利息，家庭每个月的还款压力不减，但资产缩水已经是既定事 实。 想卖房换地方或者改善居住条件时，就会发现房子卖不出理想价格，甚至亏本，这种心理和经济压力会 累积，影响日常生活。 更糟的是，部分家庭可能已经把资金压在房子上，缺乏灵活现金流。房价下跌导致资产缩水时，日常开 销、教育、医疗等支出就可能被迫压缩，生活质量直接受影响。 2、买房心理受到冲击，家庭财富规划困难 房价下跌不仅是经济问题，更是心理问题。很多家庭把房子当成重要财富储备，甚至是子女未 ...

他那套房其实不错，属于普通家庭能勉强挤一挤可以买到的改善型三房，小区不豪华，但学区扎实，地 段成熟，生活方便。 以前家里人都说这种房抗跌，他自己也觉得是块压舱石。 我一个亲戚，半年前把他唯一的一套自住房卖了。 卖房之前我们一起吃饭，他还信誓旦旦地说，房价怎么跌都跟他无关，他那套是自住，不炒、不换、不 卖，跌成啥样他都不慌。 那时候他的底气特别足，典型的"反正我不卖，我就不亏"。 结果也就前后脚，人直接变了一个样。 一、一套"越住越慌"的房子 可偏偏这两年楼市风向变得太快。房价连着往下掉，朋友圈每天都在晒降价截图，短视频里全是"房价 回到十年前""还不跑就亏大了"。 我这亲戚嘴上不说，心里其实早被这些声音搅得乱七八糟。越刷越慌，越看越觉得这房子再不卖就晚 了。 没过多久，他就成为中介的常客，想着先了解一下行情。中介当然是劝："你这房去年卖还能卖160万， 现在再不卖连100都到不了了。" 几句话就把他心里的那层纸戳破。最后他狠下心，把房子挂出去，一降价、两谈判，成交比挂牌还低一 点。 从死活不卖到赶紧脱手，前后也就一个月的时间。 二、他是怎么被"安全感焦虑"推着卖房的 很多人以为他冲动，其实不是。他属于那种越焦 ...

记者丨李莎 编辑丨张星 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，部署2026年经济工作，明确了八大重点任 务。 房地产仍是明年化解重点领域风险的重中之重。 "十五五"规划建议主要在民生保障领域部署 房地产工作，这次中央经济工作会议对房地产工作的部署，主要集中在"坚持守牢底线，积极 稳妥化解重点领域风险"这项重点任务中。 会议提出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重 点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发 展新模式。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向21世纪经济报道记者表示，总体上看，2026年房地产政策有两 个重点：继续推动房地产市场止跌回稳，以及加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量 发展。 其中在稳市场方面，王青认为，明年政策将进一步从供需两端发力，或涉及引导商业银行加大 对房企开发贷的投放力度，继续放松限购，更大力度收购商品房用作保障房，通过居民房贷定 向降息、财政补贴等方式加大居民购房支持力度，减免房地产交易税费等多个方面。 在推动房地产高质量发展方面，在王青看来，未来房地产行业要逐步形成以租售并举、建 设"好 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信建投证券 核心观点 一看会议对形势判断，对当下社会热议的经济问题，此次会议给出定论，"这些大多是发展中、转型中 的问题，经过努力是可以解决的"。 二看政策勾画的2026年经济图景，拓展新空间的内需、止跌回稳的投资、主动化债的地方财政、深入推 进的反内卷、稳定的地产、逐渐壮大的新动能、逐步落地的多项长期改革。 三看会议给出的增量政策，财政方向是"更加积极"，除了赤字率仍维持高位之外，举债规模进一步扩 张，地方债务风险兜底，税制改革，这些都是增量。货币政策"适度宽松"，锚定"物价合理回升"，预计 力度至少与今年齐平。 四看产业趋势，重视新动能、人工智能、服务业、新能源、海洋经济及反内卷。 信息或事件 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 一、积极政策取向未变，有利于经济修复和资产价格 去年中央经济工作会议将财政政策的表述由"积极"调整为"更加积极"，将货币政策的表述由"稳健"调整 为"适度宽松"。 今年中央经济工作会议对宏观政策的定调与去年一致，均为"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，提出"要 继续实施更加积极的财政政策" ...

过去三十年，是中国经济实现跨越式发展、城镇化快速推进的关键时期，房地产行业也实现了规模与质 量的显著提升。自1998年"房改"至2021年新房市场规模见顶，全国新建商品房销售面积累计增长12倍， 销售额增长67倍。在此期间，房地产业在扩大内需、促进投资等方面发挥了重要作用，解决了亿万中国 家庭的基本居住需求，支柱产业地位持续巩固。近年来，随着经济产业结构转型和宏观形势变化，房地 产逐步向居住属性回归。行业政策环境亦经历了从宽松支持、到与市场频繁博弈、再到长效机制逐步建 立的过程。当前，房地产供求关系已发生重大变化，行业正经历深刻的市场调整与发展模式重塑。 中国房地产指数系统完整见证并记录了中国房地产市场三十年的起伏与变迁，紧跟行业发展脉搏，逐步 构建起覆盖新建住宅、二手住宅、土地与商办市场的多维度指数体系。2010年，"百城新建住宅价格指 数"正式推出，实现对全国100个重点城市新建在售楼盘的系统监测；随着房地产市场逐步进入存量时 代，系统又于2020年和2022年先后推出"百城二手住宅价格指数"和"住宅租赁价格指数"，持续强化行业 价格监测的全面性与精准性，为洞察市场、研判趋势提供了重要依据。 展望未来，中 ...

其中在稳市场方面，王青认为，明年政策将进一步从供需两端发力，或涉及引导商业银行加大对房企开 发贷的投放力度，继续放松限购，更大力度收购商品房用作保障房，通过居民房贷定向降息、财政补贴 等方式加大居民购房支持力度，减免房地产交易税费等多个方面。 在推动房地产高质量发展方面，在王青看来，未来房地产行业要逐步形成以租售并举、建设"好房子"、 回归房地产居住属性为核心的新发展模式。 会议提出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向21世纪经济报道记者表示，总体上看，2026年房地产政策有两个重点： 继续推动房地产市场止跌回稳，以及加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展。 资料图房地产工作仍强调防风险 今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项房地产支持性政策，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，推动 房地产市场止跌回稳。政策成效还在继续显现，但房地产市场延续调整。 国家统计局数据显示，10月70个大中城市房价止跌回稳还面临一定压力，前10月房地产销售下降的形势 ...