Market Overview - On September 22, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.76%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 136.09 billion, comprising HKD 74.41 billion in buying and HKD 61.68 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 12.736 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - Southbound trading through the Stock Connect (Shenzhen) recorded a total transaction amount of HKD 50.073 billion, with buying at HKD 27.328 billion and selling at HKD 22.745 billion, leading to a net buying of HKD 4.583 billion [1] - Southbound trading through the Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total transaction amount of HKD 86.020 billion, with buying at HKD 47.087 billion and selling at HKD 38.933 billion, resulting in a net buying of HKD 8.154 billion [1] Active Stocks - Alibaba-W was the most actively traded stock with a total transaction amount of HKD 90.45 billion and a net buying of HKD 26.14 billion, while SMIC and Shankai Holdings followed with transaction amounts of HKD 89.67 billion and HKD 55.25 billion respectively [1] - The top net buying stock was the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (盈富基金) with a net buying amount of HKD 28.64 billion, despite a closing price drop of 0.88% [1] - Meituan-W had the highest net selling amount of HKD 3.85 billion, with a closing price decline of 2.26% [1] Continuous Net Buying - Alibaba-W and Pop Mart were the only two stocks with continuous net buying for more than three days, with Alibaba-W having a total net buying of HKD 604.43 billion over 22 days, and Pop Mart with HKD 21.28 billion over 3 days [2] Summary of Active Stocks on September 22 | Code | Name | Transaction Amount (HKD million) | Net Buying (HKD million) | Daily Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02800 | Tracker Fund | 300062.61 | 286406.81 | -0.88 | | 09988 | Alibaba-W | 904530.67 | 261418.50 | 0.06 | | 02828 | Hang Seng China Enterprises | 86111.09 | 86061.50 | -1.48 | | 06088 | FITHONTENG | 240377.57 | 45123.01 | 17.83 | | 00412 | Shankai Holdings | 552511.40 | 42858.63 | 29.76 | | 00981 | SMIC | 896702.36 | 31778.65 | 5.16 | | 01810 | Xiaomi Group-W | 289237.11 | 15351.09 | -1.06 | | 00700 | Tencent Holdings | 342267.30 | 13464.57 | -0.23 | | 02020 | Anta Sports | 80758.47 | 12271.30 | -2.22 | | 01347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 79088.60 | 10589.67 | 3.57 | | 02228 | Crystal International | 158175.95 | 6579.02 | 8.06 | | 09992 | Pop Mart | 152325.56 | 1922.21 | -1.40 | | 03690 | Meituan-W | 382208.58 | -38469.29 | -2.26 | [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes investment opportunities arising from the acceleration of China's consumer supply chain going overseas, particularly in the packaging sector, which is crucial for the consumer supply chain [4] - The report highlights the performance of key companies in the light industry and textile sectors, recommending a focus on companies with strong growth potential and market positioning [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Key Company Status - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, indicating a "Buy" rating for companies like Baiya Co., Sun Paper, and Morning Light Co. [2] Market Trends - The light industry index decreased by 0.58% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, ranking 18th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index decreased by 0.26%, ranking 15th [12] - Specific sub-sectors within the light industry showed varied performance, with home goods increasing by 0.84% and packaging printing decreasing by 2.3% [12] Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks key industry data, noting that the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 25.4% year-on-year during the week of September 14 to September 20, 2025 [32] - The furniture manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year increase of 22% in retail sales from January to August 2025 [65] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Crystal International and Huayi Group, which are expected to improve their market share and profitability due to structural optimization and scale effects [8] - It also recommends attention to the home furnishing sector, particularly companies like Xilinmen and Gujia Home, which are positioned to benefit from ongoing demand for soft furnishings [8]

Core Points - A retail store in Haidian District was found selling counterfeit "POP MART" blind boxes and plush toys, which were purchased from unofficial online channels and lacked proper anti-counterfeiting labels [1][3] - The counterfeit products were confirmed by the trademark rights holder to be unauthorized, with a total illegal operating amount of 2,322 yuan [3] - The Haidian District Market Supervision Administration confiscated all counterfeit goods, imposed fines, and ordered the store to cease infringement activities [3] Company and Industry Summary - The counterfeit products closely resembled authentic "POP MART" items in packaging design and branding, indicating a significant risk of brand dilution and consumer deception [3] - The market supervision authority emphasized the high market recognition of the "POP MART" trademark and warned consumers about the potential health risks associated with low-quality counterfeit goods [3] - Consumers are encouraged to report suspected counterfeit products to maintain a fair and orderly market environment, highlighting the importance of brand protection in the industry [3]

Group 1 - The Haidian District Market Supervision Administration conducted an investigation based on consumer reports and seized a batch of counterfeit "Pop Mart" registered trademark blind boxes and plush accessories from a retail store [1] - The seized products were found to be highly similar to genuine products but were poorly made and lacked proper anti-counterfeiting labels, confirmed by professional identification from the trademark rights holder [1] - The involved merchant purchased the counterfeit goods from unofficial online channels and sold them at prices lower than the genuine products, with a total illegal operating amount of 2,322 yuan [1] Group 2 - The Haidian District Market Supervision Administration imposed administrative penalties on the merchant, including confiscation of all infringing goods and a fine, and ordered the immediate cessation of infringing activities [1] - The confiscated infringing goods will be legally destroyed, and the administration will trace the supply chain to identify upstream suppliers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the strong performance of technology and pharmaceutical funds, public funds are gradually adopting a defensive mindset [1] Group 1: ETF Construction Strategies - The construction speed of popular industry ETFs has slowed down as stock prices heat up [4] - As of September 19, 2023, the strongest technology fund has achieved a performance of 196%, while the strongest pharmaceutical fund has exceeded 170% [5] - The construction speed of ETFs is influenced by the performance of the underlying sectors, with slower construction in sectors that have seen rapid price increases [5][6] Group 2: Shift to New Consumption - Head funds are increasingly participating in new consumption IPOs, indicating a strategic shift towards defensive assets [7] - Notable new consumption companies, such as IFBH, have attracted significant public fund interest, reflecting a growing focus on consumer stocks [8] - The new consumption sector is seen as a core defensive asset due to its relatively stable stock performance and emerging growth drivers [9] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Logic - The third quarter of 2023 is expected to be a period of market differentiation, with a focus on selecting quality companies [10] - Analysts suggest that the new consumption sector is gaining traction due to its emphasis on consumer experience and the emergence of leading brands in the capital market [10] - The consumption sector is anticipated to benefit from clearer demand-side policies in the second half of the year, leading to improved profitability [11]

Core Insights - The total cross-border e-commerce import and export volume in China reached 1.32 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, indicating a significant transformation in the industry where Chinese brands are moving from a "low-price, high-volume" model to a focus on technological innovation, localization, and emotional value creation [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - Chinese outbound brands are breaking category boundaries through technological breakthroughs, with products like the HOVERAir flying camera and JisuLife portable fan showcasing innovative features that cater to specific market needs, leading to significant sales success [2] - The HOVERAir flying camera, designed to meet Japanese regulations, became a bestseller on Amazon on its launch day, exemplifying the philosophy of "creating demand" rather than merely discovering it [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, the top four global smart vacuum robot brands by shipment volume were all Chinese, highlighting the role of technological innovation as a core driver for Chinese products to penetrate high-end markets [2] Group 2: Localization Strategy - Successful globalization strategies are shifting from "global uniformity" to "local deep cultivation," with over 75% of outbound brands establishing operations in five or more overseas markets [3] - The green mobility brand Heybike has successfully penetrated 20 countries, including the U.S. and Japan, by integrating into local cycling cultures through emotional marketing initiatives [3] - JisuLife's localized strategy includes adjusting product offerings based on regional consumer habits, achieving significant sales milestones with over 30 million units sold and revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Emotional Value and AI Empowerment - Chinese brands are creating emotional connections with global consumers, as seen with Pop Mart's Labubu3.0 series, which experienced a nearly 480% increase in overseas revenue in the first quarter of 2025 [4] - The integration of AI in cross-border e-commerce is accelerating, with 45% of companies using generative AI for product innovation and 86% of small to medium-sized brands considering AI a key driver for marketing success [4] - The transformation in cross-border e-commerce is not only about trade data growth but also about establishing new pathways for Chinese brands to connect with global consumers on an emotional level [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of the "emotional economy," highlighting how consumers are increasingly willing to spend on seemingly useless items that fulfill emotional needs, such as collectibles and novelty products [8][30][58]. Group 1: Market Trends - The launch of the mini Labubu figure by Pop Mart sold out in under five minutes, with resale prices skyrocketing to 300 yuan per piece, indicating a strong demand for collectible toys [4][9]. - Collaborations, such as the Hello Kitty digital camera bucket by KFC, also saw immediate sellouts and significant price increases on secondary markets, reflecting a trend in emotional-driven purchases [6][8]. - The emotional economy is characterized by consumers purchasing items that may not have practical utility but provide emotional satisfaction, as seen in the popularity of various novelty items and collectibles [8][30]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to products that evoke nostalgia or emotional connections, leading to a surge in demand for toys and collectibles [18][68]. - The phenomenon of "emotional spending" is evident in various sectors, including food and beverage, where establishments are enhancing customer experiences to stimulate emotional responses [28][30]. - The emotional economy is not limited to physical products; virtual services and experiences, such as AI companionship and emotional support services, are also gaining traction among consumers [54][58]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The emotional economy in China is projected to reach a market size of 23,077.67 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 45,000 billion yuan by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [58]. - Interest-driven consumption among young people accounts for nearly 30% of their spending, with key categories including pets, trendy toys, gaming, and travel [32][34]. - The rise of emotional spending is occurring against a backdrop of declining marriage and birth rates, with pet-related spending seeing substantial growth, such as an 800% increase in cat food sales during last year's Double 11 shopping festival [34][37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite strong performance in technology and pharmaceutical funds, some public funds are shifting towards a defensive strategy, with new consumption stocks potentially offering better investment safety [1][4] - The construction speed of popular thematic ETFs has slowed down significantly as stock prices rise, with specific ETFs showing low stock positions just before their listing [2][3] - The slowdown in ETF construction speed is attributed to the substantial gains in related sector funds, with technology funds achieving up to 196% and pharmaceutical funds over 170% year-to-date [3] Group 2 - Some funds are beginning to replace their holdings in pharmaceuticals and technology with defensive consumer stocks, indicating a strategic shift among fund managers [4][6] - Public funds have started to participate in the IPOs of consumer stocks, which was rare earlier in the year, suggesting a growing interest in the consumer sector [4][5] - The consumer sector is viewed as a key defensive asset for public funds, driven by reasonable valuations and the emergence of quality companies with new performance drivers [6][8] Group 3 - Fund managers believe that the third quarter will see a differentiation in market performance, emphasizing the importance of selecting quality companies as the market becomes more rational [7] - New consumption trends are characterized by a focus on consumer experience and the emergence of leading brands in the capital market, which could lead to sustained interest in these sectors [7][8] - The consumer industry is expected to benefit from clearer demand-side policies in the second half of the year, potentially leading to improved profitability and competitive dynamics [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The social services sector is experiencing a positive trend, with significant growth in tourism and related services, driven by government policies and consumer demand [5][22] - The tea and coffee sectors are showing robust growth, with leading brands expanding their store counts and achieving strong same-store sales growth [44][55] - The collectible toy market is witnessing steady online sales growth, particularly in plush and blind box categories, while offline store performance is mixed [26][39] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - The National Day holiday is expected to see a stable increase in travel bookings, with domestic flights projected to reach 139,000 flights, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [15][22] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class is approximately 896 yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [15] Collectible Toys - Online sales in the collectible toy category reached 1.275 billion yuan in August 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 16% [26][27] - The average store efficiency for collectible toy brands increased by 11% year-on-year, with top brands like Pop Mart showing significant growth [39] Food and Beverage - The tea beverage sector has 517,600 stores nationwide as of August 2025, with a net increase of 1,800 stores [48] - The average monthly store efficiency for the tea industry was 226,400 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [45][48] - Major tea brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Gu Ming have seen substantial store expansions, with Mixue adding 7,625 stores in the first eight months of 2025 [52][55] Cross-Border E-commerce - Shopee is enhancing its content e-commerce strategy through partnerships with major social media platforms, indicating a focus on growth in Southeast Asia [7][8] Market Performance - The social services index outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.13 percentage points during the week of September 15-19, 2025, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries [7][8]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Yongzhou Land Port Iron-Sea Combined Transport Train" marks an upgrade in logistics efficiency for the region, facilitating the export of Hunan Taile潮玩 products and enhancing the high-quality development of the outward-oriented economy in Yongzhou [1][3]. Group 1: Logistics Efficiency - The dedicated train carried 30 40-foot containers, generating nearly $1.5 million in export revenue [3]. - The new transport route significantly shortens delivery times, allowing goods to reach major Japanese ports like Tokyo and Osaka within 5 days, compared to traditional methods [3]. - The integrated service reduces overall transportation costs by 35% to 40% and minimizes carbon emissions, contributing to a greener logistics system [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Since 2022, Yongzhou Land Port has launched multiple specialized trains covering various sectors, including light industry, agriculture, and construction materials, with a notable increase in the number of trains this year [5]. - The port serves as a crucial logistics hub connecting the Hunan region to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative, breaking the limitations of its inland location [5]. - Future plans include expanding transport routes and offering integrated services such as booking, customs declaration, transportation, and clearance to further support local enterprises in their export endeavors [5].