Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract was 11,415, down 175 from the previous day and 240 from the previous week. The open interest of the main contract was 74,503, an increase of 7,604 from the previous day and 52,260 from the previous week. The trading volume of the main contract was 116,114, an increase of 42,925 from the previous day and 53,914 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber was 135, up 40 from the previous week. The 8 - 9 month spread was 165, up 100 from the previous week. The 9 - 10 month spread was 145, down 5 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 150 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The Chuanhua market price was 11,450, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, down 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export**: The spot processing profit was - 264, down 125 from the previous day and 149 from the previous week. The on - screen processing profit was - 399, down 150 from the previous day and 189 from the previous week. The import profit was - 82,873, up 1,455 from the previous day and 1,609 from the previous week. The export profit was 137, up 131 from the previous day and 223 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,425, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and 125 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 56, down 30 from the previous day and 55 from the previous week. The import profit was 250, down 100 from the previous day and 66 from the previous week. The export profit was - 862, up 51 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene styrene rubber (SBR) production profit was 938, down 175 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was - 3, up 92 from the previous week. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 825, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 28,933, down 7,914 from the previous day and 25,295 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was - 62,203, down 7,894 from the previous day and 52,580 from the previous week. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,200, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spread between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber was 150, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week. The spread between SBR 1502 and 1712 was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually becoming evident. After the price cuts of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, the spot offers are gradually declining, which may prompt some downstream enterprises to start stocking up. As a result, the inventories of producers and traders may slightly decrease [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly, and most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to build up inventory for the "National Day" holiday and fill the gaps in previous orders. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous period. The position of the main contract is 66,899 yuan/ton, up 2,683 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between October and November for synthetic rubber is 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 110 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 68.47 dollars/barrel, up 1.03 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 64.52 dollars/barrel, up 1.22 dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 604.88 dollars/ton, down 3.62 dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 dollars/ton, unchanged. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, down 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 25,600 tons, down 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, up 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, down 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 34,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [2]. - The producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 26,300 tons, up 1,650 tons. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 8,210 tons, up 950 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces. The monthly production of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.83 days, down 0.05 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.94 days, up 0.09 days [2]. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [2]. - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall production reached a high level this year [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Key Points 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Data**: On September 16, the closing price of the main contract was 11,675, down 30 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week; the position volume was 64,216, an increase of 45,431 from the previous day and 37,366 from the previous week; the trading volume was 74,764, an increase of 38,182 from the previous day and a decrease of 43,356 from the previous week; the warehouse receipt quantity was 13,670, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 30 from the previous week; the virtual - real ratio was 23.49, an increase of 17 from the previous day and 14 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30 from the previous day and - 185 from the previous week; the butadiene rubber basis (two - oil) was 30 from the previous day; the styrene - butadiene basis was 130 from the previous day and - 85 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was 35 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week; the 9 - 10 month spread was 90 from the previous day and - 130 from the previous week [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 200 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,550, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 200 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,525, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 10 from the previous week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 190, a decrease of 102 from the previous day and 169 from the previous week; the disk processing profit was - 215, a decrease of 132 from the previous day and an increase of 16 from the previous week; the import profit was - 84,535, an increase of 16 from the previous day and a decrease of 166 from the previous week; the export profit was 29, a decrease of 2 from the previous day and an increase of 242 from the previous week [3]. 2. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,500, an increase of 100 from the previous day and a decrease of 30 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,300, an increase of 50 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 100 from the previous week; CFR China was 1,090, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 5 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 136, an increase of 50 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; the import profit was 382, an increase of 51 from the previous day and 43 from the previous week; the export profit was - 944, a decrease of 45 from the previous day and an increase of 104 from the previous week [3]. 3. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,113, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 75 from the previous week; the SBS 791 - H production profit was 825, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 230 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A [3]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 48,176, a decrease of 45,386 from the previous day and 37,266 from the previous week; NR - BR was - 51,501, a decrease of 45,426 from the previous day and 37,386 from the previous week; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,450, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 350 from the previous week; 3L - styrene - butadiene was 3,050, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and an increase of 150 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price difference was 150, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot quotations gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up, and the inventories of production enterprises and trade may decrease slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, and most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule this week, with the overall capacity utilization rate fluctuating slightly. The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 64,216, an increase of 45,431; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 67.44 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.45 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.3 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan is 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,600 tons, or 8.15%. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. Most tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have resumed normal operations, driving the increase in capacity utilization. In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot offers gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up. The inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises may decrease slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels, driving up the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly [2]. - The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,705 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 18,785, a decrease of 2,274 [2]. - The spread between synthetic rubber contracts 10 - 11 is - 5 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies show different changes, with some remaining unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. b. Spot Market - The prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions have changes, with some unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha, and butadiene show different changes, with some prices decreasing [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 5,350 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased by 0.54 percentage points to 50.64% [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 47 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - The operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong show different changes, with the inventory days of semi - steel tires increasing slightly [2]. e. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.26 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.69 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 7.31 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.57 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 4.23 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber output increased by 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some devices had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of BR rubber shows wide - range volatile movement. The impact of device maintenance on supply is limited, while demand has mixed factors, and inventory has a negative influence. Fundamentals are relatively strong, but trading volume has weakened. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile state [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral upward trend in volatility. For arbitrage, it is advisable to pay attention to going long on BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have been reduced by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The suspension of several butadiene rubber devices has led to a slight decline in domestic production and capacity utilization. However, the sufficient supply of most brands limits the price increase. Weakening demand for raw material butadiene and price softening, along with downstream purchasing behavior, have put pressure on prices [7]. 3.2 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - In 2025, many refineries of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC have device maintenance plans, involving various regions and different types of devices, with a wide range of maintenance capacities and time spans [12]. 3.3 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Device Maintenance Data Statistics - Many butadiene production enterprises have experienced device shutdowns, affecting production capacity. For butadiene rubber, some devices are in normal operation, while others are under maintenance, and some have future shutdown plans [13]. 3.4 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Market Data - **Supply**: Butadiene production and high - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization have declined due to device shutdowns [4]. - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, the replacement market is stable, with increased production of winter tires and some shortages in all - season tires. In the all - steel tire market, the replacement market price is stable, with a slight improvement in trading volume [4]. - **Inventory**: Butadiene port inventory has decreased, while butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventories have increased [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 165 yuan/ton, in East China is - 65 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,205 yuan/ton (2.19%), the NR - BR spread is 940 yuan/ton (6.82%), and the BR - SC price ratio is - 0.36% [4]. - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation is 36 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction is 1,997.21 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 128 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.06% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - sentiment of synthetic rubber are in intensified contradiction, and it will operate in a volatile manner. The supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction in the medium - to - long term, and its fundamentals are still under significant pressure [2][4][6]. - For synthetic rubber, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate under the pattern of both supply and demand increase, and the inventory pressure of butadiene rubber has increased. However, due to the expected preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and the "anti - involution" policy, the market has certain support, and the price will fluctuate within the fundamental valuation range [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants stopped for maintenance this week. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of September 10, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 8.15% week - on - week [4]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of sample tire production enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The substitution demand remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4][5]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels within the fundamental static valuation range without chasing short positions, and also refer to macro - sentiment. The upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4][5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: In the current cycle (20250905 - 0911), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. Next week, it is expected to be about 102,500 tons, still showing a downward trend [6]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS remains stable [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased slightly this week, with the sample enterprise inventory down 0.81% week - on - week and the sample port inventory down 17.29% week - on - week. However, there are still expectations of ship arrivals, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored [8]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [13]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate of butadiene has fluctuated, and many plants have experienced maintenance or shutdowns [17][18]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations, and the import profit is also affected by market prices [20]. - **Demand - side - Capacity and Operation of Downstream Products**: The capacities of downstream products such as butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, and their operating rates and production plans vary [22][23][29][33]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply of Butadiene Rubber**: The output of butadiene rubber has fluctuated, and many plants have normal operations, maintenance plans, or shutdowns. The cost, profit, and inventory of butadiene rubber have also shown corresponding changes [43][44][45]. - **Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire**: The inventory and operating rates of domestic tires (including all - steel tires and semi - steel tires) in Shandong Province have shown certain trends, and the demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry is affected by these factors [57][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].