永安合成橡胶早报 ljis 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/10 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正，研究 方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内 容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提 供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益中突。未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可 能团互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或格存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统赚题现或伪造 变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 声明 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 r 5000 4000 3000 2000 1 000 0 -100Q e -2000 ·2022 -- 2020 · 2021 - 2024 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Analyst Qualification Number: Z0021541 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a rebound, but there is still significant fundamental pressure in the medium term [2][4] Summary by Section 1. Market Judgment - **Futures Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is around 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton. When the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation is 11,100 yuan/ton [4] - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable. Domestic butadiene short - term trading has improved, with prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. Short - term imports have increased. Demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. Inventories at production enterprises have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate at a low level [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. Supply - side开工率 is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. Demand remains high this week, and substitution demand supports the total demand. Inventories are at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, on Thursday, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement increased, and the rubber sector rebounded at a low - valuation level. Butadiene rubber, as a low - valuation variety in the rubber sector and with the requirement of warrant cancellation on June 30, had a large rebound. In the medium term, the main contradiction in the market is the weak demand in the rubber sector. With sufficient supply of natural and synthetic rubber, weak demand drives the fundamentals downward [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound, medium - term short - selling on rallies; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Supply - Side Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages. The total new capacity in 2021 was 580,000 tons, 480,000 tons in 2022, 570,000 tons in 2023, 480,000 tons in 2024, and 860,000 tons are expected in 2025 [9] - **Supply - Side开工率**: The current butadiene industry开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4] - **Supply - Side Imports**: Short - term imports of butadiene have increased [4] - **Demand - Side Capacity of Downstream Products**: The production capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Chuanhua, and other companies have new production capacities coming online. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased significantly in 2024 and 2025 [18][27] - **Demand - Side Operation of Downstream Products**: The operation of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber plants varies, with some running at full capacity, some reducing loads, and some shutting down. The开工率 and profitability of ABS and SBS also show different trends [23][28] - **Inventory**: Butadiene production enterprise inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased [4] 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain fluctuations. The开工率 of production enterprises varies, with some running normally, some reducing loads, and some shutting down [37][38] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost and profit of butadiene rubber have changed over time, and the gross profit margin also shows different trends [39][40][41] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations [42][43] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber are at different levels and show different trends [48][50] - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Side Tires**: The inventory and开工率 of Shandong's all - steel and semi - steel tires show different trends, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [52][53]

6月6日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，合成橡胶期货主力合约开盘报10960.0元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，合成橡胶主力最高触及11395.0元，下方探低10960.0元，涨幅达2.91%附近。 后市来看，合成橡胶期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 西南期货分析称，原料端，丁二烯价格回调，合成橡胶加工亏损扩大；供应端，中国高顺顺丁橡胶行业 周度产能利用率回落至73%附近，同比处于偏高水平需求端，轮胎企业成品库存高企，出口订单受关税 压制，内需受制于基建投资放缓，购难有增量；库存端，厂家库存环比累库，同比处于偏高水平，贸易 商库存环比累库，同比处于偏高水平。总结：等待企稳参与反弹。 6月4日当周，合成橡胶社会库存录得3.4万吨，较上一周减少0.05万吨，减少幅度达1.45%；最近一个 月，合成橡胶社会库存累计增加0.04万吨，增加幅度为1.19%。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，近期顺丁橡胶生产成本小幅下降但仍存在较大亏损，生产延续大幅亏损导致 部分民营企业或存进一步降负可能，成本面弱势及宏观经济预期偏空影响下，贸易商积极倒挂出货，本 周生产企业库存小幅提升，贸易企业库存小幅下降。需求方 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, but there are still large losses. The continued large - scale losses in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their loads. Under the influence of weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are actively selling at a loss. This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Most tire enterprises' devices are operating stably, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises have production cuts, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline in the short term. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 26,276, a decrease of 1,407. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 5,950 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 64.86 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.85 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.56 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 562.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,150 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,350 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.3%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation is 46.09%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.54%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2] Industry News - As of June 5, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period (May 28, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market is about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market is about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 06 - 04 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Recently, the sentiment on the raw material side has gradually subsided. The production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased slightly but there are still large losses. The continuous large - scale losses in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their production loads. The overall supply is expected to continue to decrease as the full - scale overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical starts gradually. The prices in the cis - butadiene rubber spot market have continued to decline and it's still difficult to attract trading. Last week, the inventories of cis - butadiene production enterprises and trading enterprises both increased. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Most tire enterprises' equipment ran smoothly, some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans recently, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may continue to decline in the short term. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is not clearly shown in the data table. The position of the 220 main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,095, with a decrease of 3,874. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 6,050 tons, with a decrease of 70 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 305 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 320 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 65.63 US dollars/barrel, with no change; WTI crude oil is 63.41 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 561.63 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,150 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 780 US dollars/ton, with no change; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is unchanged, the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.3%, with an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.09%, with a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 12.15 tons, with a decrease of 0.68 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.54%, with a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 279 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 894 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.45 tons, with an increase of 0.17 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 1,100 tons, and the weekly trader inventory is 6,360 tons, with an increase of 560 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with an increase of 0.03 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, with a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 5,539 million pieces, with a decrease of 61 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 1,308 million pieces, with a decrease of 427 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.96 days, with a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.22 days, with a decrease of 0.78 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of May 29, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.45 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons compared with the previous period (20250521), a month - on - month increase of 5.06%. The raw material market was weak this period, but the overall domestic supply was still sufficient. The bearish sentiment of industry players continued to rise. Coupled with the weakening of the natural rubber market, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber spot market continued to decline and there was still no trading follow - up. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both increased. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. Most tire enterprises' equipment ran smoothly during the period, some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises month - on - month. In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% compared with April this year, and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2]

700000 17000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 16000 6000000 12000 11800 15000 500000 11600 14000 400000 l 1400 11200 13000 300000 11000 12000 200000 10800 10600 11000 1000000 10400 10000 10200 - 06合约 07合约 08合约 现货 -- 6/3 -- 6/2 --- 5/30 --- 5/27 --- 5/2 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR06-07 2500 1000 - 800 2000 600 500 1 200 400 1000 200 500 0 -500 -20Q -50Q -400 -1000 -1000 -600 -1500 - -800 -1500 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 · 2023 - - 2024 - - 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR07-08 18000 18000 1000 800 16000 1 6000 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1 000 0 -1000 e -2000 ·2022 -- 2020 2021 - 2024 2025 2023 BD 卫星化学丁二烯纸货结构 东明石化丁二烯竞拍情况 1500 13000 14000 800 700 13000 1000 12000 600 12000 500 11000 500 11000 400 10000 0 300 10000 200 -500 9000 9000 100 -1000 8000 O 8000 024/12/18 025/5/28 025/1/15 025/3/12 025/4/16 025/5/21 2025/4/9 2025/1/8 025/2/19 025/4/23 025/5/14 025/3/19 025/3/19 025/5/14 025/5/21 025/1/29 2025/2/± 025/2/12 2025/3/: 025/3/26 2025/4/2 025/4/9 125/4/30 2025/1/8 025/1/15 025/1/29 025/2/12 025/2/19 025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].