Group 1: Fixed Income and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [2] - The statement indicated a slight reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, although it remains at a high level [2] Group 2: Energy Transition and High-Temperature Superconductors - Shanghai Superconductor, a leading company in high-temperature superconducting materials, reported projected revenues of CNY 0.83 billion and CNY 2.40 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133% and 187% [2] - The company's gross profit margins are expected to improve to 55.77% and 60.52% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit to CNY 0.73 billion in 2024, indicating a turnaround [2] - The report anticipates that the demand for controllable nuclear fusion will drive down costs and expand application scenarios for high-temperature superconductors [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Retail Growth - The 2025 "618" e-commerce promotion is expected to see stable double-digit growth, driven by a slightly extended activity cycle, government subsidies, and increased user engagement through instant retail scenarios [4] - Major e-commerce platforms are expected to continue competing on improving merchant operations and enhancing user stickiness through multi-channel marketing [4] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) and JD.com (JD US/9618 HK) due to their strong brand support and potential for cross-selling in instant retail [4] Group 4: Utilities and Environmental Sector Performance - The report anticipates a mixed performance among major thermal power companies in Q2 2025, with coal prices expected to decline month-on-month [5] - Hydropower generation is projected to decline year-on-year, while nuclear power operations remain stable [5] - Key focus areas for green power operators include electricity pricing mechanisms and cash flow management for environmental companies [5] Group 5: New Energy and Technology Trends - The report highlights optimism in the profitability of battery and structural components in the electric vehicle sector, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [8] - Wind power demand is expected to remain robust, with profitability recovery driven by offshore wind projects [8] - Recommended stocks include CATL, EVE Energy, and others involved in emerging technology sectors such as humanoid robots and AIDC [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Market Demand - The report analyzes the structural characteristics of U.S. Treasury investors, noting that international investors, broad-based mutual funds, and the Federal Reserve account for over 60% of the market [7] - Different investor types exhibit distinct motivations for purchasing Treasuries, with expectations for continued demand from commercial banks and pension funds in the second half of 2025 [7]

Group 1: Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates a 22% year-on-year increase in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driven by policies such as trade-in incentives, new model releases, and price reductions [2][16][22] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, supported by carbon emission regulations and ongoing subsidies [2][18][22] - The global demand for power batteries is projected to grow at a rate of 25% in 2025, with a significant increase in battery capacity requirements due to enhanced vehicle range [22][24] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with new installations projected at 100 GW for land-based and 12 GW for offshore wind in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 23% and 114% respectively [3][4] - Internationally, the wind power market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased policy support [3] - The report highlights opportunities in offshore wind and related supply chains, including wind turbines, piles, and submarine cables [3] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The report expects global photovoltaic installations to reach 530-560 GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0-6%, influenced by domestic demand and emerging markets [4] - Supply-side reforms are anticipated to play a crucial role in reshaping the industry, with a key window for these reforms expected between the second half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [4] - New technologies such as bifacial cells and metallization processes are highlighted as areas of interest for future growth [4] Group 4: Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong bidding data and the advancement of market-oriented electricity pricing [5] - In the U.S., energy storage installations are expected to increase by 23% in 2025, despite concerns over subsidy reductions [5] - The European market is forecasted to see a 36% increase in energy storage installations in 2025, with significant contributions from large-scale commercial storage [5] Group 5: Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is experiencing a recovery, with growth expected in 2025 due to increased demand from traditional and new energy industries [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) technologies as key areas for investment [9] - Companies involved in high-value components and new technologies, such as PEEK materials and disc motors, are recommended for attention [9]

Core Insights - J.D. Power released the 2025 China New Energy Vehicle Reliability Study (NEV-VDS) results, indicating that the overall complaint rate for long-term reliability in the industry is 244 PP100, significantly higher than that for new energy vehicles (NEV-IQS) and traditional fuel vehicles [1][3] Summary by Categories Overall Reliability - The complaint rate of 244 PP100 reflects a higher number of issues compared to new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles, indicating a need for improvement in long-term reliability [3] Major Complaint Categories - The top three complaint categories are infotainment systems, seats, and vehicle exterior, with infotainment systems being the most frequently reported issue [3] - The growth rate of complaints related to faults is significantly higher than that of design-related complaints in long-term quality for new energy vehicles [3] Infotainment System Issues - Infotainment systems are the highest source of complaints, primarily due to unresponsive touch screens, malfunctioning voice recognition, and poor sound quality [3] Seat and Driving Experience Complaints - Complaints regarding seat comfort and driving experience have increased significantly, with long-term complaint indices rising by 8.4 and 7.1 respectively compared to new vehicles [6] - This suggests that manufacturers may overlook basic driving comfort in favor of innovation and design [6] Recommendations for Improvement - Traditional domestic brands should focus on consumer needs, optimize product design, and enhance quality control, especially regarding driving experience [6] - International brands need to address the evident shortcomings in infotainment systems [6] - New energy vehicle startups, while innovative, must accelerate product iterations to meet changing consumer demands [6]

一、信息娱乐系统问题多，语音指令"听不懂"和触摸屏"点不动"最让人抓狂。信息娱乐系统是车主抱怨 最高的问题类别。触摸屏操作不灵敏、语音识别失灵以及音响音质不好成为主要问题。在PP100最高的 20个具体问题中，有5项来自信息娱乐系统，其中不少问题在新车阶段就已出现，长期使用后抱怨排名 显著上升，说明消费者对于智能化功能的稳定性存在要求，但目前的新能源产品无法满足。 二、座椅"越用越难受"，长期舒适性短板成痛点。看上去豪华，用起来却不舒适。研究显示，新能源车 用户对座椅类问题，如头枕和座椅不舒服、安全带固定不合适，以及驾驶体验类问题，例如刹车过于灵 敏、方向盘太沉的长期抱怨增加最多，PP100对比新车阶段分别增长8.4和7.1。表明车企在追求造型和 技术时，可能会因为"创新"而忽视基本的驾乘体验。 调查结果显示，自主品牌、国际品牌、新势力品牌车企各有所长，也各有不足。 新能源车长期质量抱怨中，故障类问题抱怨增速显著高于设计类问题，在价格竞争激烈的当下，成本控 制一定程度上引发了车身、配置等多系统的耐久性风险。 此次调查基于拥车期在13至24个月之间的中国新能源车车主在过去6个月中遇到的问题，涵盖10个问题 类别 ...

6月19日，港股市场高开低走，汽车、食品饮料等大消费方向逆势上涨。港股消费指数成分股涨跌互 现。港股消费ETF（159735）过去5个交易日日均成交额超6000万元，市场热度较高。 消息面上，本周国新办发布会表示，消费是经济增长的重要引擎，大力提振消费是应对外部环境变化、 畅通国内大循环、提升居民生活品质的关键。总的来看，经济保持平稳运行，消费品以旧换新政策效果 不断显现，消费市场活力逐步增强。从未来发展看，直播带货、即时零售等消费新业态新模式日益成 熟，银发经济、首发经济、低空经济等快速发展，消费经济新的增长点不断涌现。但也要看到，居民消 费能力和信心仍有待提升，消费内生动能仍需增强。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪港股消费指数，是"更新的消费"，相较A股消费以白酒高端消费为主，港 股消费板块中电商、消费电子、新能源车、餐饮、旅游、文娱传媒、国潮服装等新型消费比例更高，服 务消费和大众消费占比也更高，或更能充分反映本轮大力提振消费政策驱动下的消费景气复苏。 中银证券表示，消费板块近年来展现出多元化的发展趋势，尤其在新消费赛道中，多个细分领域呈现出 不同的增长动能和市场表现。从整体来看，折扣零售和娱乐经济 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, is impacting global oil prices and supply chains, which may negatively affect export-dependent sectors in A-shares like electronics and home appliances. However, gold and oil sectors may benefit from this situation as investors seek safe havens [3] - Domestic policies are becoming more favorable, with the central bank injecting 1.4 trillion yuan in liquidity over ten days, benefiting banks and brokerages. Upcoming events like the Lujiazui Forum may lead to further policy support, such as interest rate cuts or consumption stimulus [3] Group 2: Policy Impacts - The real estate sector is seeing a relaxation of restrictions, with cities like Guangzhou lifting purchase and sale limits, which may provide some relief to related industries like building materials and home furnishings, although significant price increases are not expected due to the ongoing "housing is for living in, not for speculation" policy [3] - The regulatory environment for technology is tightening, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, which remain policy priorities, but high valuations may require a wait for corrections before investment [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around the 3400-point mark, showing signs of a potential downward adjustment with key support levels identified between 3350 and 3370 points. A rebound is possible if the market stabilizes, as liquidity remains abundant [4] Group 4: Fund Flows - Recent shifts in major funds indicate a rotation, with increased investments in brokerages and innovative pharmaceuticals, while the new energy vehicle sector is experiencing significant sell-offs due to high valuations. Northbound funds are steadily accumulating bank stocks, indicating a preference for high-dividend investments [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to include defensive assets like gold and oil in their portfolios due to the uncertain geopolitical climate, with specific stocks like Shandong Molong and Western Gold showing potential [7] - Capitalizing on policy benefits by focusing on leading stocks in the brokerage and real estate sectors is recommended, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing high prices [7] - Long-term investments in sectors like AI computing, humanoid robotics, and low-altitude economy are encouraged, as these areas are expected to provide opportunities despite short-term volatility [8]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 15 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 6月 第 2 周周报 小米公布固态电池专利，汽车行业反内卷推进 新能源汽车方面，本周汽车行业反内卷行动持续，主流车企均提出将供应商 的支付账期控制在 60 天以内；中汽协发布 5 月销量数据，新能源汽车销量 继续保持增长，我们预计全年销量有望保持高速增长，产业链有望受益。动 力电池方面，5 月动力电池装机保持增长，其中，三元电池装机量环比提升 明显；固态电池催化不断，又有车企公布固态电池技术专利，建议关注有固 态电池布局的相关标的。光伏方面，中央经济工作会议明确提出综合整治"内 卷式"竞争，光伏供给侧改革力度有望加强；新技术方面，BC 组件获得海外 市场认可，且头部企业持续提升 BC 电池转换效率。光伏供给侧重点关注硅 料环节，新技术方面重点关注 BC 以及贱金属降本方向。氢能方面，政策持 续推动氢能产业化发展，能源局开展能源领域氢能试点，地方政策催化不断， 建议关注具备成本优势、技术优势的电解槽生产企业、受益于氢能基础设施 建设的燃料电池、氢储运、加注装机企业。维持行业 强于大市 评级。 相关研究报告 ...

子行业周度核心观点： 风电：菲律宾 3.3GW 海风项目招标,要求 2028-2030 年完成项目交付，开发周期远短于正常海外海风项目，看好国内 交付能力更强的国内风机、基础、海缆企业获取相关订单；文船重工宣布完成第一批 Inch Cape 单桩生产，项目基础、 海缆交付有望逐步启动，建议关注下半年东缆等企业订单确收情况；国电投 2.5GW 陆风机组集采开标，5.XMW 机型投 标均价环比 3 月集采开标上涨 17%，继续推荐下半年盈利有望趋势性改善的整机环节。 锂电：复合集流体产业化靠近，全固态电池产业化持续迈进。铜价的持续提升推升铜箔在电池的成本占比，已经成为 未来电池材料的最大降本环节，我们坚定看好复合铜箔产业化 0-1，预计 Q3 有望最快看到复合铜箔的落地，重视电池 大赛道的格局重塑机会；6-8 月预计有行业全固态电池产品送样测试的产业催化，今年主要的电池企业、主机企业预 计推动中试线的落地，重点关注增量环节干法电极设备、锂金属负极、硫化物电解质等。 本周重要行业事件： 光储风：菲律宾 3.3GW 海风项目招标；国电投陆风机组开标价格继续走强；上海 SNEC 展期间多家企业发布叠层及常 规光伏电池/ ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250607-20250613） 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 (8621)23297818× fengyu@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 略 研 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 行 业 比 较 - 证券分析师 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证 A 股整体 PE 为 18.7 倍，处于历史 71%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 15 年 月 日 电力设备 冠鸿智能 0.2GWh 全固态电池产线签约，强调 Q2 海风业绩拐点 光伏：终端需求疲软，6 月组件开工率或有所下降。根据本周索比咨询数 据，6 月以来，组件价格还在下行，本周地面电站 TOPCon 210 双面 0.670 元/W，TOPCon 矩形双面 0.665 元/W，HJT 矩形双面 0.730 元/W。6 月目 前组件开工率或有所下调，环比下降 15~20%。在组件排产走入的背景下， 关注后续辅材价格是否会有所下行。核心关注两大方向：1）供给侧偏刚 性、后续需求复苏后价格弹性更大的硅料和玻璃，核心关注协鑫科技、通 威股份、福莱特等。2）新技术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注 爱旭股份、聚和材料等。 风电&电网：强调 Q2 海风业绩拐点，关注深远海启动。二季度海上风电 单桩发运显著，据我们统计，在 2025 年开工的海上风电项目，截至目前 总计达 8GW。此外，约 2.55GW 的海上风电项目在 2025 年内实现并网。 据我们统计，在 2025 年下半年有望开工海上风电项目，或达 4.6GW，多 ...