[tabl中e_山pa每ge日1点] 评 [table_subject] 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告·中山每日点评 分析师：方鹏飞 登记编号：S0290519010001 邮箱：fangpf@zszq.com 分析师：葛淼 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 1.市场整体表现 表 1 主要指数涨跌幅度 | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.09 | 北证 50 | -0.44 | | 深证成指 | -0.35 | 万得全 A | -0.15 | | 沪深 300 | -0.22 | 中证 500 | 0.23 | | 科创 50 | -1.11 | 红利指数 | 0.90 | 资源类板块表现突出 ——2 月 11 日 A 股市场点评 [中ta山bl证e_券inv研es究t]所 [[分ttaa析bbll师ee__：rree唐ssee晋aarr荣cchh]] 登记编号：S0290517120002 邮箱：tangjr@zszq.com 资料来源：Win ...

近期A股市场呈现横盘震荡格局，石油石化、有色金属等传统周期板块轮动走高，半导体、AI应用等科技题材则高位回落，主要股 指走势分化明显，沪深两市成交规模阶段性收窄至2万亿元以内。化工板块因细分产品供需格局变化反复活跃，相关个股连续4个交 易日价格走高，部分标的当日价格封至高位；商业航天概念也因行业关键试验取得突破出现局部异动。多家机构基于2010年以来的 历史行情数据观察，认为春节假期前后市场风格切换概率较高，节前价值与大盘风格占优，节后成长与中小盘风格或迎来表现窗 口，AI产业链、企业出海、涨价资源品被列为核心关注方向。面对板块快速轮动的市场环境，多数参与者仅依靠价格走势判断，往 往陷入追涨杀跌的循环，而量化大数据为观察市场核心行为提供了新的、更可靠的视角。 一、 高位波动下的行为识别 2025年10月，上证指数逼近4000点关口，近千家个股创下年内新高，但多数参与者的账户表现并未同步。从价格走势维度看，部分 个股两个月内价格走高超70%，但48个交易日中26天出现价格回落，占比超半数；且每创阶段新高后均进入阶段性调整，连续八轮 的波动使得多数参与者难以坚持持有，最终错失后续行情成果。 看图1： 某光通信概念 ...

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a low-volatility trend with a long-term decline in market volatility [2] - The upward trend in the stock market is not yet over, indicating further potential for growth [2] - A-shares are anticipated to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with the importance of fundamentals increasing after a valuation adjustment [2][3] Capital Flow - The demand for asset allocation among domestic residents has been activated by profit effects, with various medium- to long-term funds entering the market, suggesting an active capital flow in 2026 [2][3] - Incremental capital is expected to cover a broader range, driven by increasing motivation among individual investors to enter the market [3] - Public funds and insurance capital are likely to continue increasing their allocation to equity assets, reshaping global capital flow logic [4] Key Investment Sectors - Key sectors to focus on include: - Non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [2] - Technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption transformation, and U.S. stocks [2] - New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military industry, and machinery [3] - AI, new energy, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, price increase chains, and overseas expansion chains [4] - Technology innovation themes and consumption sectors [4] - TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with potential shifts towards cyclical and financial sectors [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened on February 20, 2023, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,413.35 points, down 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 5,211.5 points, down 2.91% [1] - Despite the overall decline, sectors such as AI, humanoid robots, biotechnology, and oil and petrochemicals showed strong performance, creating a structural market trend [1] AI Sector Performance - AI concept stocks in Hong Kong continued to rise, with notable gains from companies like Zhizhu and MINIMAX-WP, both surpassing a market capitalization of 300 billion HKD [1] - Zhizhu's stock price surged by 42.72% to 725 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 3.24 billion HKD, resulting in a total market cap of 323.2 billion HKD [1] - MINIMAX-WP increased by 14.52% to 970 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 3.52 billion HKD, leading to a market cap of 304.2 billion HKD [1] - The demand for Zhizhu's GLM-5 has surged globally, causing service delays, prompting the company to initiate a "computing power partner" recruitment plan [1] - The AI industry is entering a critical development phase, transitioning from a focus on computing infrastructure to a collaborative model of "computing power + hardware + applications" [1] Humanoid Robot Sector - The humanoid robot sector gained traction, influenced by the high visibility of robots during the Lunar New Year gala, with stocks like Yujian, SUTENG, and UBTECH showing significant increases [1] - Yujian's stock rose by 21.4% to 48.44 HKD per share, while UBTECH increased by 4.71% to 144.5 HKD per share [1] - The demand for robots surged, with JD.com's robot search volume increasing over 300% and order volume rising by 150% during the gala [1] - Analysts predict that by 2026, major companies like Tesla and leading domestic firms will begin large-scale production of robots, marking a new chapter in the industry [1] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector performed well due to rising oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, with the Hong Kong oil and petrochemical index increasing by 2.39% [1] - Stocks such as Jixing New Energy and Zhonggang Petroleum saw gains exceeding 7% [1] - The port transportation index also rose by 1.95%, with companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and Seaspan International experiencing significant stock increases [1] Storage Sector - The storage sector showed active performance, with stocks like Lanke Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation seeing substantial gains [1] - Lanke Technology's stock rose over 8% during trading, while Zhaoyi Innovation increased by over 7% [1] Market Sentiment - Current market volatility remains high, influenced by factors such as U.S. stock performance, consumer data during the Lunar New Year, and advancements in AI [1] - Analysts suggest a balanced investment approach, focusing on sectors directly benefiting from AI developments, such as storage and semiconductor hardware [1]

大家新年好啊，今天是周五，港股已经开盘，因此上来和大伙儿聊几句，然后休息两天，等下周一（初七）港股再开盘的晚上，继续完整地聊一 下海外等全球大类资产，在假期的表现，帮大家在A股开盘前热个身。 今天分几个点哈，聊到哪儿算哪儿。 一、春晚的一些想法。 我觉得吐槽是没啥意义的，能看到一些事物发展的本质，才是有价值的。 1、本届春晚的 "含科量" 巨高，炒股的自然都知道，这和对A股提高"含科量"的政策目标，是一脉相承的，显然是自上而下的传导，因为很多工 作，靠春晚导演组，是协调不到的。 2、虽然很多人会揶揄春晚，拿部分地区春晚收视率不高抬杠，但毫无疑问，在传统媒介逐渐凋敝（从大家都集中看几家电视台，变成了人人刷 不同的短视频），人民群众的爱好和目光焦点多元化的当下， 春晚就是全国人民的最大公约数 ，在这个舞台上做些宣传，显然效果是最好的 ——反面例子是这回美国的超级碗，有个波多黎各歌手全程用西班牙语表演"报菜名"，川宝发帖子吐槽，称其是史上最差表演，简直礼崩乐坏。 年初展望的时候《 2026年金融市场的十大预测 》，咱们提到过 K型分化 的问题，在第十点。 这回春节就有了个微观的体验，家族里有亲戚，去年在股市里赚的不 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened on February 20, 2023, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,413.35 points, down 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 5,211.5 points, down 2.91% [1][2] - Despite the overall decline, sectors such as AI, humanoid robots, biotechnology, and oil and petrochemicals showed strong performance, indicating a structural market trend [1][4] AI Sector - AI concept stocks continued to rise, with significant gains observed in the afternoon trading session, marking them as a key highlight of the market [4] - Zhizhu and MINIMAX-WP both surpassed a market capitalization of 300 billion HKD, with Zhizhu's stock price increasing by 42.72% to 725 HKD per share and MINIMAX-WP rising by 14.52% to 970 HKD per share [3][7] - The AI industry is entering a critical development phase, transitioning from a focus on computing power infrastructure to a collaborative model involving "computing power + hardware + applications," broadening the investment landscape [6][8] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector experienced significant growth, driven by the high-profile appearance of robots during the Lunar New Year Gala, with stocks like Yujian and UBTECH showing notable increases [9] - Specific stock performances included Yujian rising by 21.4% to 48.44 HKD, UBTECH increasing by 4.71% to 144.5 HKD, and SUTENG rising by 9.24% to 37.58 HKD [9] Oil and Petrochemicals - The oil and petrochemical sector also performed well, with the Hong Kong oil and petrochemical index rising by 2.39%, driven by geopolitical tensions leading to higher oil prices [12] - Notable stock performances included Jixing New Energy and Zhonggang Petroleum, both rising over 7% [12] Storage Sector - The storage sector showed active performance, with stocks like Lanke Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation experiencing significant gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards semiconductor hardware [12]

Group 1 - The core theme of the news is the initiative by China Petroleum to provide warmth and support for travelers during the Spring Festival, transforming gas stations into "warm stations" for millions of returning home [1][2] - Since the start of the Spring Festival travel rush on February 2, China Petroleum has utilized over 22,000 gas stations, more than 6,000 charging and swapping stations, 3,900 love stations, and over 200 driver homes to create a nationwide energy supply and service network [1] - In Sichuan's Ganzi New Dujiao, gas stations are referred to as "health stations on the lifeline," where staff assist drivers in distress, showcasing the commitment to safety and support during travel [1] Group 2 - Gas stations are evolving from mere refueling points to comprehensive energy supply stations that connect regional culture, facilitate convenient consumption, and convey good wishes [2] - Across China, gas stations serve as beacons of warmth, ensuring vehicle endurance, travel safety, and the deep-rooted desire for reunion and happiness among the people [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. military is preparing for potential military action against Iran, with indications that an attack could occur as early as the upcoming weekend, although President Trump has not made a final decision [1] - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, deploying an aircraft carrier strike group and over 150 military transport flights to move weapons and ammunition [2] - Analysts suggest that a potential military operation against Iran could be a large-scale action lasting several weeks, posing a significant threat to Iran and having profound implications for the region [1] Group 2 - The Israeli government is preparing for the possibility of a breakdown in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, as they perceive the talks to be at a critical stage with clear divisions between the two parties [2] - U.S. stock indices experienced gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.78%, the S&P 500 by 0.56%, and the Dow Jones by 0.26%, amid the backdrop of military developments [2] - The oil and petrochemical sectors saw strong performance, with ExxonMobil up 3.04%, Shell up 2.48%, and Chevron up 1.8%, as international crude oil futures surged over 4% [2]

Group 1 - The technology and cyclical sectors have shown strong performance since January, with indices such as media, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemicals rising over 10% as of February 13 [1] - In contrast, the dividend strategy has underperformed significantly in 2025, with the banking index down over 6% year-to-date, indicating a weak performance among low-valuation, high-dividend sectors [1] Group 2 - A report from Guojin Securities suggests that in the context of low macro risks from AI investments and a global manufacturing recovery during a rate-cutting cycle, corporate profit recovery in China could drive the stock market in 2026 [3] - The report indicates that investors may focus more on marginal changes in fundamentals rather than dividend yields, suggesting that dividend strategies may struggle to achieve excess returns this year [3] - Despite this, dividend assets are still considered a "ballast" for portfolios due to their low valuation, low volatility, and competitive yield compared to government bond rates [3] - Over 50 companies have committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 30% for 2025, with notable commitments from Huaihe Energy, Guangdong Expressway A, and Desso Fashion for substantial cash dividends [3] - Huaihe Energy has pledged a total cash dividend of no less than 75% of its net profit for 2025-2027, with a per-share dividend of at least 0.19 yuan (tax included) [3] - Guangdong Expressway A plans to distribute cash dividends of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, while Desso Fashion commits to a minimum of 60% for the same period [3] - Based on the latest closing prices, Huaihe Energy has a dividend yield exceeding 5.4%, and Guangdong Expressway A is projected to have a yield over 5% based on a 70% payout ratio [3] - Eighteen stocks, including Hongcheng Environment, Sichuan Chengyu, Wantong Expressway, and China National Materials, are forecasted to have dividend yields exceeding 4% based on institutional consensus for 2025 earnings and committed payout ratios [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the stock price of Intercontinental Oil and Gas is attributed to multiple factors including disappointing earnings forecasts, technical corrections, capital outflows, industry risks, and a cooling market sentiment [1][6]. Performance and Operating Conditions - The company's 2025 earnings forecast indicates an expected net profit attributable to shareholders of between 105 million to 150 million yuan, representing a significant year-on-year decline of 69.24% to 78.47%. This drop is primarily due to lower international oil prices compared to the previous year and increased income tax expenses. This forecast deviates significantly from earlier predictions by some institutions, prompting a reassessment of the company's profitability [2]. - In Q3 2025, revenue decreased by 19.94% year-on-year, with net profit experiencing a decline of 46.61%, indicating weak fundamentals that fail to support previous stock price increases [2]. Stock Price and Capital Performance - From January 20 to February 6, 2026, the stock price of Intercontinental Oil and Gas surged by 76.28%, with a notable "limit-up" trading day on February 6, featuring a 20% intraday fluctuation. However, following this short-term surge, the stock price diverged from its intrinsic value, showing technical signs of being overbought. From February 9 to 13, the stock price fell consecutively, with a total decline of 9.36%, breaching the 5-day moving average and indicating significant bearish pressure as the MACD histogram turned negative [3]. Capital Movements - On February 12, there was a net outflow of 228 million yuan from major institutional investors, accounting for 7.64% of the total trading volume. This outflow increased to 148 million yuan on February 13, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 124 million yuan, indicating continued withdrawal of institutional funds. The financing balance decreased by 30.64 million yuan over five days, a decline of 4.04%, with leveraged funds also contracting [4]. Industry Policy and Environment - The volatility of international oil prices adds uncertainty to performance. Although geopolitical conflicts have temporarily driven up oil prices, the global supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain uncertain. The company's main oil field in Kazakhstan faces production pressures. Additionally, while the Iraq project is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, its lengthy construction period and high geopolitical risks make it unlikely to contribute profits in the short term [5]. Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown weak performance, with the sector index dropping by 3.09% on February 13, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas's decline slightly exceeding the sector average. The company's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 49.38, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.4, indicating that high-valuation stocks are more susceptible to corrections during downturns [6].