Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by the rise of electric vehicles and intelligent driving technologies, with a focus on key players like BYD, Geely, and XPeng [4][10][13]. Weekly Data - In the third week of March 2025, passenger car sales reached 430,000 units, up 15.6% year-on-year and 3.5% month-on-month; new energy vehicle sales were 224,000 units, up 31.2% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 52.1%, down 1.4 percentage points [2]. Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 3.89% in the A-share automotive sector from March 24 to 28, ranking 11th among sub-industries, compared to a decline of 1.05% in the CSI 300 [3][30]. Company Performance - Key companies like BYD, Weichai, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation reported strong earnings, with BYD's net profit for Q4 2024 at 15.02 billion yuan, up 73.1% year-on-year and 29.4% month-on-month; China National Heavy Duty Truck's net profit was 546 million yuan, up 28.4% year-on-year and 73.0% month-on-month; Weichai's net profit was 3.002 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year and 20.2% month-on-month [5][10]. Passenger Car Market Outlook - The passenger car market is showing upward momentum, with new models launching and intelligent driving technologies gaining traction. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is recovering rapidly due to subsidy policies, with significant pre-sale orders for models like Great Wall's Xiaolong MAX and Geely's Lynk & Co 900 [6][11]. Investment Recommendations - The focus is on high-quality domestic brands accelerating breakthroughs in smart and global markets, recommending companies such as BYD, Geely, XPeng, and others in the new energy vehicle sector [7][13][15]. Motorcycle Market - The large-displacement motorcycle market is expanding, with significant sales growth reported in February 2025, particularly for brands like Chunfeng Power, which saw a 134.9% year-on-year increase in sales [23][24]. Heavy Truck Market - The heavy truck market is recovering, supported by expanded subsidy policies for replacing old vehicles, with sales in February 2025 reaching approximately 80,000 units, a 34% increase year-on-year [25][26]. Tire Industry - The tire industry is experiencing strong demand and performance, with high operating rates and a focus on global expansion. Leading companies are expected to benefit from ongoing growth and technological advancements [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 20.50, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of HKD 15.60 [1][6][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's engine profits have shown strong growth, with a record high dividend payout ratio of 55%. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0.8% in 2024, reaching RMB 215.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and a net profit increase of 26.5% to RMB 11.4 billion [2][6]. - The report highlights several catalysts for growth, including new subsidies to boost heavy truck demand, strong growth in data center engines, and robust demand for natural gas heavy trucks [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Weichai Power are as follows: - 2023: RMB 213.96 billion - 2024: RMB 215.69 billion (0.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 237.92 billion (10.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 254.83 billion (7.1% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 269.35 billion (5.7% YoY growth) [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 9.01 billion - 2024: RMB 11.40 billion (26.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 14.64 billion (28.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 16.19 billion (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 17.77 billion (9.8% YoY growth) [3][10]. - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to reach 22.4% in 2024, up from 21.1% in 2023 [11]. Market Position and Performance - Weichai Power's market share in the domestic heavy truck engine market is 38.7%, with a strong performance in high-end markets such as data centers, where sales of M-series engines grew by 148% [6][10]. - The company has maintained a stable market share despite a 5% decline in overall commercial vehicle demand in the domestic market [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 11.5x, with a corresponding dividend yield of 6.6% [6][10]. - The book value per share is expected to be RMB 8.73 in 2025E, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.4x [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 20.50, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of HKD 15.60 [1][6][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's engine profits have shown strong growth, with a record high dividend payout ratio of 55%. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0.8% in 2024, reaching RMB 215.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and a net profit increase of 26.5% to RMB 11.4 billion [2][6]. - The report highlights several catalysts for growth, including new subsidies to boost heavy truck demand, strong growth in data center engines, and robust demand for natural gas heavy trucks [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Weichai Power are as follows: - 2023: RMB 213.96 billion - 2024: RMB 215.69 billion (0.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 237.92 billion (10.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 254.83 billion (7.1% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 269.35 billion (5.7% YoY growth) [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 9.01 billion - 2024: RMB 11.40 billion (26.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 14.64 billion (28.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 16.19 billion (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 17.77 billion (9.8% YoY growth) [3][10]. - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to reach 22.4% in 2024, up from 21.1% in 2023 [11]. Market Position - Weichai Power's heavy truck engine sales are projected to remain stable, with a market share of 38.7% in the domestic market. The company has also seen a 148% increase in sales of data center products [6][10]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 250.4 billion and has shown a year-to-date price change of 31.31% [5][10].

智通财经APP讯，中国重汽(03808)发布截至2024年12月31日止年度业绩，收入950.62亿元(人民币，下 同)，同比增加11.19%;股东应占溢利58.58亿元，同比增加10.16%;每股基本盈利2.14元;拟派发末期股息 每股0.55港元。 公告称，重卡分部总收入841.50亿元，同比上升11.8%。重卡分部的营运溢利率为5.2%，同比下降0.6个 百分点，主要原因是受区域结构变化及车型结构影响导致。 回顾期内，集团重卡销售24.34万辆，同比增加7.2%。 牵引车市场，集团一是抢抓机遇，在多个细分领域强势夺冠。其中，15L大马力燃气牵引车市场占有率 同比提升9.7个百分点，实现高端燃气牵引车行业引领;集装箱牵引车运输市场占有率同比提升3.5个百分 点。二是加速迭代产品速度，全新发佈汕德卡C9H超高顶牵引车和HOWO-TS7牵引车。 载货车市场，集团深入拓展各类应用场景，补齐产品短板，重点深耕城市快递应用场景。其中，快递市 场占有率行业领先;翼开启市场占有率同比增长3.7个百分点，位居行业第一。 专用车市场，集团主打差异化竞争优势，不断提升产品品质，市场占有率同比提升0.7个百分点，消 防、泵车和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the heavy truck industry, particularly highlighting the expected benefits from the implementation of the National IV emission standards [12]. Core Insights - February sales exceeded expectations, with wholesale sales reaching 82,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [8]. - Terminal sales for February were 48,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 81.9% and a month-on-month increase of 42.9% [8]. - The report anticipates that in March 2025, domestic sales will be around 70,000 units, with wholesale expected to reach 110,000 units [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - February production of heavy trucks was 87,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 46.3% and month-on-month growth of 14.4% [11]. - The total inventory in February increased by 16,000 units, with the current total inventory at 149,000 units [8][26]. Market Structure - In February, the market share for terminal sales was led by Jiefang (25.0%), Dongfeng (19.2%), and Heavy Truck (19.3%) [10]. - The market share for exports was dominated by Heavy Truck at 46.6%, followed by Jiefang (14.7%) and Dongfeng (6.6%) [51]. Profitability Tracking - The report indicates that the heavy truck industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in both terminal and wholesale sales, suggesting a positive trend in profitability [11][12]. - The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 36.7%, with sales of 17,700 units in February, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.5% [33]. Demand Tracking - The report notes that macroeconomic indicators remain stable, supporting the demand for heavy trucks [70]. - The average oil-gas price difference was reported at 2.3 yuan, which is above the critical value for cost recovery, indicating favorable economic conditions for natural gas trucks [34].

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

2月重卡数据超市场预期，该月销售水平仅次于2021年2月，主要系春节后开工使物流需求攀升、车企为 迎接开门红准备较多新车库存，考虑到2025年以旧换新政策延续、未来国四淘汰政策有望逐步落地，看 好重卡行业驱动力从LNG+电车变为LNG+电车+油车换新，全年销量有望超过百万台，尤其是内销或保 持较快增长，看好行业头部车企受益此轮周期向上，加强内部控制和降本力度的企业利润弹性或更高。 人民财讯3月11日电，华泰证券研报称，2月我国重卡批售约8万辆，同比、环比分别增长34%、11%。 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market shows a recovery in sales but weak investment, with second-hand housing becoming a key driver of sales improvement, while new housing remains sluggish [1][8][30] - The construction materials sector, including cement and steel, is experiencing lower demand compared to previous years, with cement output down 24.9% year-on-year [1][16][31] - The automotive and home appliance sectors are benefiting from improved demand due to the recovery in real estate sales and supportive policies, with automotive sales increasing by 20.8% year-on-year [1][12][31] Group 2 - The energy and resources sector is facing weak coal demand, with prices declining; however, industrial metals are seeing a mild recovery in demand [23][24] - The financial sector is experiencing heightened investment enthusiasm in the A-share market, with social financing data showing positive trends [34][35] - The midstream manufacturing sector is seeing a decline in heavy truck and excavator sales due to seasonal factors and policy transitions, with heavy truck sales down 25.5% year-on-year [36][37] Group 3 - The consumption sector is witnessing a recovery in service consumption and a rebound in large consumer goods, while agricultural product demand remains weak [2][3] - The TMT sector is seeing accelerated production of humanoid robots and sustained interest in AI models, indicating potential growth opportunities [2][3] - The new energy sector is experiencing high growth in sales from new energy vehicles, with new models expected to drive further demand [2][3]

2 证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 2月第3周乘用车同比+42.3%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年3月4日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.2.24-2025.3.2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：二月第三周交强险36.8万辆（同/环比+42.3%/+9.6%）。本周SW汽 车指数-2.7%，细分板块涨跌幅排序: SW商用载客车(+3.7%) ＞ 重卡指数(-0.7%)> S W摩托车及其他(-1.0%)> SW汽车零部件(-2.2%)> SW汽车(-2.7%)> SＷ商用载货车(- 3.5%) > SW乘用车(-4.4%) 。本周已覆盖标的明阳科技、苏轴股份、小鹏汽车-W、威 迈斯和理想汽车-W涨幅较好。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发二月深圳NOA试驾报告、乘用车月报、重卡月报。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）特斯拉在中国正式推出FSD，国内智能化进程加速；2）小鹏 2月交付新车30453台，同比+570%；3）理想公布L改款规划，5月智驾焕新版Pro/ M ...

撰文 / 牛跟尚 设计 / 师 超 "一汽、东风、重汽(包括陕汽)三大品牌主导行业竞争的格局一直没有被打破"——62岁的北汽重卡党委书记、总经理吴越俊在2025年1月1日的反思文章 中说。 这位卡车界老将认为，"除欧曼外还没有任何新品牌取得成功的先例，北汽重卡作为全新的品牌要取得行业成功也是难度极大。" 事实是，他领导的北汽重卡在2024年销量7173辆——不及福田欧曼全年销量69819辆的零头，相比2024年16000辆的目标，可谓英雄迟暮、壮志未酬。 北汽重卡是北汽集团在福田汽车之外，于2023年1月全新发布企业战略、品牌战略的中国重卡新势力，它在当年3月首辆车下线、5月上市、6月量产，并 在半年内产量突破5000辆。可谓来势汹汹，颓势快快。 2024年，不光有北汽集团的北汽重卡销量惨淡，还有上汽集团背景的上汽红岩和大运集团的大运重卡生死未卜，江汽集团的江淮重卡、兵工集团背景的 北奔重卡停滞不前，吉利集团背景的远程重卡、奇瑞集团背景的联合重卡没有进入前十。 同样在天然卡重卡销量10强中，第六到第十名才出现大运、北汽重卡、上汽红岩、联合重工、北奔重卡的坐席，后五者总和不到8000辆，不及第六名福 田汽车18 ...