新华财经北京8月22日电（记者安娜）中国石化经济技术研究院（中国石化咨询公司）等单位22日在北 京发布的《中国油气与新能源发展报告（2025）》预计，2025年，我国新能源替代仍将加速，交通用油 替代资源总量继续增长，占成品油终端消费的六分之一左右。 这份报告由中国石化经济技术研究院（中国石化咨询公司）、中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究 所、北京大学能源研究院、挪威睿咨得能源管理咨询（北京）有限公司联合编撰，在当日由上述单位共 同举办的"油气与新能源蓝皮书发布会暨青年论坛"活动上发布。 报告指出，在全球能源转型和经济结构调整的大背景下，我国成品油市场正经历着深刻变革。交通用 油"双轮替代"持续提速，增量效应继续放大。 从全球来看，报告认为，2025年，世界能源市场将面临来自地缘政治和全球经济增长不确定性的挑战， 但世界能源需求仍会保持适度增长，能源转型和电力化趋势将持续。 "2025年以来，全球经济走势分化明显，我国在全球供应链中的地位仍然难以撼动，但需要加强与部分 国家的产业链合作。"中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所能源安全与新能源研究室原主任刘强 说，此外，关键矿产资源将成为国际政治和经济的新焦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural gas heavy-duty truck market in China is experiencing significant growth, with sales expected to reach a historical high of 178,200 units in 2024, representing a 17% year-on-year increase, driven by factors such as the implementation of the National VI standard, declining LNG prices, and the recovery of road freight [1][18]. Industry Overview - Natural gas heavy-duty trucks are categorized into LNG and CNG trucks, with LNG trucks offering larger fuel capacity and longer range. The environmental benefits include a reduction in CO2 emissions by approximately 20%, CO by 97%, HC by 72%, and NOX by 30% compared to fuel vehicles [1][11][13]. - The market saw a significant decline in sales during 2021-2022 due to low freight rates and rising LNG prices, but a recovery is underway in 2023 and 2024 [1][18]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, five companies achieved sales exceeding 10,000 units, capturing over 95% of the market share, with major players including FAW Jiefang and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [22][24]. - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top two companies holding 55.5% of the market share [24]. Policy Support - The Chinese government is actively promoting natural gas heavy-duty trucks through various policies, including the implementation of the National VI emission standards and subsidies for replacing old trucks with new natural gas models [13][15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines to prioritize the use of LNG in transportation vehicles starting from August 2024 [15]. Market Trends - The natural gas heavy-duty truck market is expected to continue growing, supported by technological advancements, policy incentives, and increasing market demand [27]. - Key competitive factors among manufacturers include high horsepower, long range, and fuel efficiency, with companies launching new models featuring advanced technologies [28][29].

Core Insights - The growth window for LNG in the automotive sector is projected to last between 5 to 10 years, driven by multiple factors including economic advantages and environmental benefits [1][3] - The market for LNG heavy-duty trucks is expanding rapidly, with significant sales increases reported in various regions of China [1][2] Market Performance - In the first four months of this year, Gansu's LNG sales reached 244,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%, while Xinjiang's total natural gas sales amounted to 309,000 tons, up 41.1% [1] - The expected sales of LNG heavy-duty trucks in China for 2024 is 178,000 units, with a market penetration rate of 19%, indicating a clear substitution effect against traditional diesel trucks [1] Economic Factors - The average price of LNG in China for 2024 is projected to be 4,535 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, marking a four-year low [1] - When the price ratio of LNG to diesel falls below 0.7, LNG trucks exhibit significant economic advantages, potentially saving 12,000 to 15,000 yuan in fuel costs per month compared to diesel trucks [1] Policy and Supply Dynamics - The "14th Five-Year Plan" encourages the use of LNG and other clean fuels in heavy-duty trucks, supported by recent policies that include subsidies for natural gas vehicles [2] - China's natural gas production reached 248.8 billion cubic meters in the previous year, a 5.7% increase, while imports rose to 184.1 billion cubic meters, up 11.2%, enhancing supply stability for LNG trucks [2] Demand Drivers - The establishment of a unified national market is driving rapid growth in logistics demand, with the total social logistics volume reaching 91 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a 5.7% increase year-on-year [2] - National projects like the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and the North Coal South Transport initiative are further stimulating the demand for energy supply networks [2] Future Outlook - LNG heavy-duty trucks are expected to gain market share due to their lower operational costs and environmental benefits, with a transition towards electric trucks anticipated in the long term [3] - Companies are actively developing integrated energy service systems, focusing on enhancing LNG networks and exploring charging capabilities for electric vehicles [3][4] Strategic Recommendations - Companies should formulate forward-looking development strategies to capitalize on current LNG market opportunities, including upgrading refueling stations and integrating social station resources [4] - Planning in logistics and resource supply, along with establishing dynamic pricing mechanisms, will be essential for preparing for future transitions towards electrification [4]

Core Viewpoint - The LNG heavy truck market is expected to grow significantly, with sales projected to reach approximately 230,000 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% [1][2]. Industry Summary - The rapid development of LNG heavy trucks is primarily driven by economic factors, favorable policies, optimized refueling station networks, new vehicle models from manufacturers, and improved range capabilities of LNG trucks [2][4]. - The domestic LNG heavy truck market is anticipated to see a sales volume of 47,000 units in Q1 of this year, with a penetration rate of 31% [1][2]. - The expected LNG heavy truck sales for 2024 are projected at 178,200 units, with a penetration rate of 29.6%, an increase of 20.6 percentage points compared to 2020 [4]. Company Summary - Companies like Furuite Equipment (300228.SZ) and Weichai Power (000338.SZ) are optimistic about the growth of the LNG heavy truck market, which will benefit their LNG vehicle gas supply system products and market share [1]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH) reported a significant increase in its LNG retail volume, which grew by 116% year-on-year to 2.05 billion cubic meters in Q1 [6]. - The introduction of subsidies for LNG heavy trucks and the government's initiative to phase out old trucks are expected to further stimulate market growth [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The transportation sector's choice of fuel is heavily influenced by economic viability, with LNG prices being significantly lower than diesel, leading to increased demand for LNG heavy trucks [4][5]. - The market is also facing competition from electric heavy trucks, which are improving in technology and infrastructure, potentially impacting the long-term growth of LNG heavy trucks [6]. Future Outlook - The LNG heavy truck ownership is expected to rise to 950,000 units, with refueling volumes reaching 6 billion cubic meters, contributing to transportation gas accounting for 55% of domestic LNG consumption [5]. - The market is projected to maintain a rapid growth trajectory in the short term due to multiple favorable factors, despite potential stabilization in the long term [6].

Core Insights - In 2024, China's refined oil market is experiencing significant changes, with fuel consumption in the transportation sector reaching its peak earlier than expected, leading to a transition from growth to decline in gasoline consumption [1][5] - The demand for refined oil is projected to continue declining in 2025, with an expected trend of "two declines and one increase" in consumption [1][25] Group 1: Refined Oil Consumption Trends - In 2024, the total refined oil consumption in China is estimated at 358.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% from the previous year, with gasoline and diesel consumption both declining [1][2] - Gasoline consumption is projected to decrease by 2.0% to 152 million tons, while aviation kerosene consumption is expected to grow by 13.0% [1][6] - Diesel consumption is anticipated to drop significantly, with a decline of 6.5% to 168 million tons, marking the largest decrease in recent years [12][22] Group 2: Impact of New Energy Vehicles - The rapid development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is a key factor driving the decline in gasoline consumption, with NEV sales reaching 12.87 million units in 2024, accounting for 40.9% of the market [6][8] - The shift towards NEVs is further supported by government policies promoting the scrapping of old gasoline vehicles, which is expected to peak in 2024 [8][23] Group 3: Aviation Fuel Demand - Aviation kerosene consumption is projected to reach 39 million tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 13% compared to the previous year, driven by increased domestic and international air travel [9][32] - The number of flights and passenger transport volume is expected to rise, contributing to the robust growth in aviation fuel demand [9][11] Group 4: Diesel Consumption Challenges - Diesel consumption is facing multiple pressures, including a slowdown in infrastructure investment and a decline in the real estate sector, leading to a significant drop in demand [12][34] - The increasing adoption of alternative fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), is further exacerbating the decline in diesel consumption, with LNG heavy truck sales experiencing a 15% increase in 2024 [13][15] Group 5: Refining Industry Adjustments - The refining industry in China is undergoing structural adjustments, with new refining capacities being introduced while older facilities are being shut down, resulting in a slight increase in total refining capacity to 923 million tons per year [16][18] - The export of refined oil is expected to decline due to reduced demand and lower export tax rebates, with actual export volumes decreasing by 527,000 tons in 2024 [19][22] Group 6: Policy Impacts - Government policies aimed at promoting the replacement of old vehicles and encouraging the use of new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate the transition towards a greener transportation sector [23][24] - The introduction of the "2024-2025 Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" is anticipated to further suppress diesel consumption and promote the adoption of cleaner energy alternatives [24][34] Group 7: Future Outlook - The refined oil market in China is expected to continue facing challenges in 2025, with overall consumption projected to decline to 345 million tons, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and the impact of alternative energy sources [25][26] - The aviation fuel demand is likely to remain the only segment showing growth, while gasoline and diesel consumption will continue to decline [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - Heavy-duty trucks are significant contributors to carbon emissions in the transportation sector, with a need for low-carbon transformation in line with national carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 1: Hybrid Technology - Hybrid technology is seen as an effective solution for energy saving and efficiency improvement in heavy-duty trucks, combining diesel and electric power [2][3] - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for hybrid trucks is lower than that of traditional diesel trucks, with savings of 270,000 yuan over a million kilometers [3] - Different hybrid configurations (series, parallel, and series-parallel) have distinct advantages and disadvantages in terms of efficiency and complexity [3][4] Group 2: Fuel Choices - LNG and methanol trucks have lower TCO compared to diesel and pure electric trucks, with LNG sales increasing significantly due to its economic benefits [6] - The energy consumption of LNG and methanol trucks is approximately 15% higher than that of diesel trucks, while pure electric trucks have the highest efficiency [5][6] - The TCO of hydrogen trucks is currently the highest, and their economic viability depends on the price of hydrogen [6] Group 3: Carbon Emissions - The carbon emissions from the entire energy cycle, including production and transportation, are crucial for evaluating the environmental impact of different fuel types [7][8] - Hybrid technology can reduce carbon emissions during operation by 14%-19%, but the overall emissions depend on the fuel production methods [8][9] - The use of green hydrogen and methanol can significantly reduce carbon emissions, achieving carbon neutrality if produced sustainably [8][9] Group 4: Policy Support - Government policies, such as carbon trading mechanisms, can incentivize the adoption of low-carbon technologies in the trucking industry [10] - Subsidies and cost reductions for hydrogen trucks can enhance their competitiveness, encouraging more companies to adopt this technology [11] - The transition to low-carbon fuels and technologies requires a comprehensive approach involving infrastructure development and policy support [12] Group 5: Conclusion - The transition of heavy-duty trucks towards greener technologies is a complex interplay of technical, economic, and environmental factors [12] - Hybrid technology is positioned as a key solution for energy efficiency and carbon reduction, while the industry must also focus on improving the efficiency of LNG and methanol engines [12] - A multi-faceted approach involving various fuel types and technologies will be essential for achieving carbon neutrality in the heavy-duty truck sector [12]

Core Insights - Heavy-duty trucks are significant contributors to carbon emissions in the transportation sector, with global transport accounting for approximately 22% of CO2 emissions, and China's heavy trucks contributing nearly 40% of the industry's emissions despite only representing 3.1% of total vehicles [2] - The transition to low-carbon solutions for heavy-duty trucks is a key focus for the automotive industry, with diverse pathways including pure electric, hybrid, and low-carbon fuels [2] Hybrid Technology: A Golden Solution for Efficiency - Hybrid systems in heavy-duty trucks combine diesel and electric power, offering advantages over traditional diesel engines in terms of energy efficiency, environmental impact, and total cost of ownership (TCO) [3][4] - In standard conditions, hybrid heavy-duty trucks can reduce fuel consumption by 15% compared to traditional diesel trucks, with potential savings of up to 20% in real-world scenarios [3][4] - The TCO for hybrid trucks is lower over a million-kilometer lifespan, saving approximately 270,000 yuan compared to diesel trucks, while also reducing CO2 emissions by 163 tons [4] Fuel Choices: Balancing Energy Consumption and Costs - LNG and methanol heavy-duty trucks have lower TCO compared to diesel and pure electric trucks, with LNG sales increasing significantly due to its economic advantages [6] - The energy consumption of LNG and methanol trucks is about 15% higher than diesel, while pure electric trucks have the highest efficiency [6][7] - The TCO for LNG trucks is less sensitive to energy price fluctuations, making them a more stable option in the current market [7] Carbon Emissions Overview: From Operation to Energy Cycle - The carbon emissions from heavy-duty trucks must consider both operational emissions and those from the energy production process, with hybrid technology reducing operational CO2 emissions by 14% to 19% [9][10] - The production methods for fuels like methanol and hydrogen significantly impact their overall carbon footprint, with coal-derived fuels resulting in higher emissions compared to diesel [10] - The transition to low-carbon fuels requires advancements in production processes to ensure that the overall carbon emissions are reduced [10][11] Policy Levers: Driving Technology Adoption - Government policies, such as carbon trading mechanisms, can incentivize the adoption of low-carbon technologies in the heavy-duty truck sector [12] - Subsidies for hydrogen trucks and exemptions from toll fees can significantly reduce TCO, encouraging more companies to adopt hydrogen technology [12] - The promotion of hybrid technology and green fuels through policy measures can facilitate a transition towards a more sustainable heavy-duty truck industry [12][13] Conclusion: Collaborative Advancement of Green Transition - A comprehensive evaluation of new powertrains and fuels is essential for the heavy-duty truck sector, with hybrid technology emerging as a leading solution for energy efficiency and carbon reduction [13] - The industry must balance the economic benefits of LNG and methanol with the need for improved engine efficiency and lower emissions [13] - The path to a greener heavy-duty truck industry will involve a combination of hybridization and low-carbon fuel adoption, tailored to specific transportation scenarios [13]