Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a target price of HKD 396.00 [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Recent stock price corrections of Pop Mart, which have dropped nearly 25% from the August 26 high, are primarily driven by market concerns over the decline in second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the report argues that second-hand prices are not a reasonable measure of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve a successful path of "artistic equity," which lays a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth. The report suggests that investors should actively seize the opportunity to position themselves for future gains [2][3]. Summary by Sections Second-Hand Price Fluctuations and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the second-hand prices of Labubu are attributed to increased supply rather than changes in demand. The report highlights that the second-hand prices of products unaffected by capacity changes, such as Labubu blind box figures, have remained stable or increased, indicating strong IP popularity [3][12]. - Pop Mart's unique brand positioning and supply control in the artist IP toy market provide it with a competitive edge, reducing the likelihood of new entrants causing supply excess and price instability [3][14]. New Product Launches and Pricing Strategies - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America. The company demonstrates flexibility in pricing strategies, allowing for differentiated pricing across various IPs and series [4][5]. - The upcoming Q3 earnings report is anticipated to reflect positive impacts from new product releases and the holiday season, with expectations for continued high growth in Q4 [4][5]. Long-Term Growth Drivers - The report outlines several growth drivers for Pop Mart's performance through 2026, including rapid capacity expansion in plush toys, a diverse range of new product categories, and the potential for significant revenue growth from major IPs like The Monsters [5][23]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its store presence, particularly overseas, which will enhance brand influence and customer acquisition [5][23]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 116 billion, RMB 170 billion, and RMB 220 billion, respectively, reflecting an upward revision of 14% for 2025 [6][9]. - The target price is set at HKD 396, based on a PE ratio of 42x for 2025, which is higher than the average PE of comparable companies [6][33]. Unique Business Model and Market Position - Pop Mart's unique business model, characterized by strong control over the entire industry chain, allows for both IP innovation and product category innovation, reinforcing its market position [31][34]. - The establishment of a global fan ecosystem enhances the company's ability to transmit heat across regions and IPs, further solidifying its competitive advantage [34].

题图 / 《甄嬛传》BJD盲盒 谈及"年轻人因何消费"的话题，大家除了会联想到二次元的谷子、商场随处可见的盲盒摆件，如今也因LABUBU大火，开始关注搪胶毛绒挂件。 然而消费市场瞬息万变，为了寻找到下一个有潜力的商品品类，诸多品牌已经展开多方位尝试，其中可动人偶隐约有发力的迹象。 今年暑假，潮玩品牌SIMONTOYS趁着《罗小黑战记2》在映，推出联名的12分可动人偶，实物已经在线下展会上放出。 另一品牌COME4FREE则发布了 《哈利波特》新品预告。这两条消息，使得越来越多网友关注到了一个新领域——BJD盲盒。 要知道，BJD过去一直和昂贵挂钩，以至于在国内很长时间里都属于小众爱好。为其增加了盲盒的销售思路之后，又为它添上IP衍生品的属性，看样子， 品牌们已经将目标聚焦"年轻人的第一款BJD"。 当高端玩具开始卷低价 可动人偶是玩具大类，包含兵人、BJD（球型关节人偶）、MJD（机械关节人偶）等多种细分类型。BJD/MJD消费者多以女性为主，由于娃娃们尺寸不 同，价格各有高低，前文提及的"12分"便是市面上的常见尺寸，娃娃实际高度约在15CM左右。 尽管品牌提供成品娃娃可供选择，许多消费者依然愿意自主搭配， ...

Core Viewpoint - Quantum Song announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2025, highlighting a strategic transformation towards the collectible toy business, which has shown strong growth potential [2] Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 2.726 billion and a net profit of RMB 357 million [2] - In the fourth quarter, revenue reached RMB 618 million with a net profit of RMB 108 million [2] - The collectible toy business generated revenue of RMB 65.78 million in the fourth quarter, accounting for approximately 10.6% of total revenue [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on the collectible toy sector, aiming to enhance brand strength and user engagement through an IP matrix expansion, deepening self-operated channels, and international expansion [2] - The company has fully acquired Shenzhen Yiqi Culture Co., Ltd. and rebranded it as "Qimeng Island" [2] IP Development and Product Strategy - The company has established a diverse IP matrix consisting of 11 proprietary IPs and 4 licensed IPs, operating over 40 blind box product lines and 30 plush card products [3] - The star IP WAKUKU generated revenue of RMB 42.96 million in the fourth quarter, with over 1 million units sold since its launch [3] - The new IP SIINONO sold out 10,000 units in 10 minutes on Douyin, with total sales exceeding 300,000 units [3] - The company is enhancing its IP reserve and market penetration through increased original investment, IP licensing cooperation, and cross-industry collaborations [3][4] Channel Expansion and Internationalization - Since launching online self-operated channels in April 2025, the company's GMV surpassed RMB 18 million in August, a ninefold increase [5] - The company has established a distribution network covering over 10,000 terminals and is negotiating flagship store openings in major cities [6] - Internationally, the company has entered North America and Southeast Asia through platforms like TikTok and Shopee, and is expanding its distribution network to over 20 countries [6] Supply Chain and Future Outlook - The company has significantly increased its production capacity, with monthly output of plush products exceeding 1 million units as of August 2025, a growth of over 20 times since the beginning of the year [6] - The company projects collectible toy revenue of RMB 100 to 110 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 and total revenue of RMB 750 million to 800 million for the entire fiscal year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that Pop Mart's capacity ramp-up leads to a rebalancing of supply and demand, indicating a successful path for the company's "art equality" strategy, establishing a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The report suggests that the adjustment in the shareholding structure is likely to become more long-term oriented, recommending investors to actively seize layout opportunities and maintaining a "buy" rating while raising the target price by 14% to HKD 396 [1] - The company possesses significant pricing power over its vinyl plush products, allowing it to implement differentiated pricing strategies across various IPs and series, thereby maximizing profitability [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Anticipation for the upcoming Q3 results is high, driven by pre-sale shipments and new products like Mini Labubu, with expectations for continued strong performance in the fourth quarter due to the overseas peak season and anniversary series new products [1] - Huatai Securities has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 14%, 12%, and 12%, reaching CNY 11.6 billion, CNY 17 billion, and CNY 22 billion respectively [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The diversity in target audience, product categories, and experiential formats is seen as the three pillars supporting the longevity of Pop Mart's IP [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies and industry trends in investment strategies, highlighting the ability to identify investment opportunities through careful analysis of policy changes and market dynamics [1][3][17]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy of the company is characterized by a balance between aggressive and defensive strategies, adapting to market conditions through a dynamic asset allocation approach [6][11]. - The company focuses on capturing economic cycles and industry rotations, selecting 3 to 5 high-prospect industries for investment each year [6][7]. - The investment strategy includes a mix of long-term holdings and opportunistic trades, with a keen eye on emerging trends and sectors [15][17]. Group 2: Historical Context and Experience - The company’s investment manager, Yin Tao, has a rich background in macroeconomic research and media, which has shaped his investment acumen over 27 years [3][4]. - Yin Tao transitioned from journalism to investment management in 2008, where he developed skills in asset allocation and risk management during the global financial crisis [4][5]. - The company has successfully navigated multiple market cycles, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in its investment approach [5][12]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The company’s managed funds have shown significant performance, with a net value growth rate of 19.18% over the past six months and 18.70% over the past year [5]. - According to data from Galaxy Securities, the company’s products ranked in the top 5% of their category over the past two years, indicating strong competitive performance [5]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The company identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as the main drivers of future growth [17]. - Yin Tao has successfully invested in leading stocks within these sectors, capitalizing on trends such as the rise of electric vehicles and innovative consumer products [14][15]. Group 5: Research and Analysis - The company employs a rigorous research methodology, including in-depth analysis of financial statements and market conditions, to identify high-quality growth stocks [10][9]. - Yin Tao emphasizes the importance of patience and thorough investigation in investment decisions, often revisiting companies to validate investment theses [9][10]. Group 6: Market Adaptation - The company adapts its strategies based on market conditions, employing a flexible approach to portfolio management that allows for quick adjustments in response to market volatility [12][13]. - Yin Tao’s strategy includes a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio, with adjustments made to stock allocations based on performance and market signals [12][13].

本次《浪浪山小妖怪》的合作，开启了捷成股份在IP商品化领域的探索，目前公司还与《蓝精灵》等多 个国内外的头部IP达成深度合作，公司围绕这些优质内容和热门IP，正在开展系统化、多形态的商品开 发，以创新的衍生品形态加速IP价值的进一步释放，不断提升市场声量与用户黏性。 捷成股份是国内领先的数字版权分销商、全媒体文化传播服务提供商、数字生活内容运营商，公司集版 权采购、数字分销、内容运营于一身，已构建了上、中、下游全产业融合式服务的视频数字版权供应链 平台。在不断夯实传统影视剧版权业务的同时，捷成股份也依托自己的版权资源和渠道优势，积极探索 以影视、动漫IP为核心的多元商品化路径，以优质内容为根本，辅以创新的商品形态与高效的渠道策 略，持续完善从内容到商品的全链路开发体系，致力于打造更具生命力的IP商品化生态，探索激发IP长 效价值的关键路径。 在此次《浪浪山小妖怪》IP的衍生品开发中，捷成股份与上影元文化深度合作，紧密围绕IP内容内核进 行创意延伸。一方面，创新推出国风非遗陶瓷盲盒系列，将传统工艺与现代潮流设计语言相结合，打造 具有收藏价值的商品线；另一方面，也适时推出大众化路线的塑料盲盒，覆盖更广泛的消费群体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have released a set of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, highlighting 19 measures across five areas, with a focus on high-quality service supply [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The document outlines initiatives such as launching a "Service Consumption Season" to promote consumption activities [1] - It supports collaboration between quality consumption resources and well-known IPs [1] - The plan includes expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education sectors [1] - There is a proposal to gradually expand the list of countries with unilateral visa exemptions [1] - The document suggests optimizing student holiday arrangements and improving related policies [1] Group 2: New Consumption Models - The document introduces the concept of pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios [1] - It emphasizes the importance of attracting more foreign visitors for consumption and encourages travel agencies and online platforms to create tailored travel routes for foreigners [1] - The proposal includes adjusting academic calendars to create more opportunities for service consumption, particularly in tourism [1] Group 3: Cultural and Entertainment Focus - The document highlights the potential of traditional cultural IP markets and the creation of new service consumption scenarios [3] - It supports local initiatives that leverage quality performances, animation, gaming, and film to drive innovation in offline experiences [3] - The report suggests focusing on tourism performance concepts such as Songcheng Performance and Fengshang Culture, as well as trendy toy concepts like Pop Mart [3]

一堆外国人会像我们曾经追逐日本动漫，好莱坞电影一样，打破头去抢我们中国的文化商品，欧美明星 争先上身。虽然知道这一天会迟早会到来，但是还是没想到会来的这么快，我们终于也像列强一样，用 塑料和化纤换他们手里的钱了。我愿意把这个转折叫做泡泡玛特时刻，未来会有越来越多的中国消费品 品牌经历这个时刻。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, but short-term volatility risks should be monitored. The market is currently supported by active trading and rising policy expectations [1] - In the short term, attention should be paid to rebound opportunities, while the medium to long-term focus should be on three main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, undervalued dividend assets, and the domestic consumption sector supported by policy [1] - The technology self-reliance direction, including AI, robotics, semiconductors, and military industries, is expected to benefit from the rapid development of domestic high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry is accelerating its "anti-involution" efforts, with several companies in key e-commerce regions raising delivery fees, indicating a shift from price competition to value competition [3] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with market sentiment stabilizing and policy measures being implemented to support the sector, particularly for leading companies with strong operational performance [3] - The banking sector's investment logic is shifting from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," with a focus on high dividend yields and regional banks with strong certainty [5] Group 3 - The short-term market trend is strong, with no significant increase in incremental capital entering the market, indicating a stable earning effect [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index is in a range-bound situation, with foreign capital showing strong interest in Chinese assets, particularly in technology sectors, which are becoming essential in global investment portfolios [9] - The ChiNext Index is showing signs of indecision, suggesting a potential shift in direction, especially with upcoming US-China talks that may influence market dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the blind box economy has led to an increase in counterfeit products being sold through live streaming, resulting in significant consumer complaints and legal actions against the perpetrators [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The blind box economy is thriving, with emotional value attached to intellectual property capturing consumer interest [1]. - Counterfeit products, often sold as "scatter goods," are being marketed by online influencers, misleading consumers about their quality [2]. Group 2: Legal Actions - The Beijing Chaoyang District People's Court has been involved in several cases related to copyright infringement and the sale of counterfeit products [1][3]. - The court found that the defendants, including manufacturers and sellers, knowingly produced and sold counterfeit Bubble Mart products, leading to significant financial losses for the company and damage to brand trust [3][7]. Group 3: Criminal Proceedings - The court proceedings revealed a structured operation where counterfeit toys were produced and sold at significantly lower prices than genuine products, with profits being shared among the involved parties [4][6]. - Sentences were handed down to multiple defendants, with penalties including prison time and fines for their roles in the counterfeit operation [7][8].