永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/11/17 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 • 美股個別發展｜美股3大指數上星期個別發展，道瓊斯指數升0.3%，標準普爾 500指數升約0.1%，納斯達克指數則跌0.45% • 流入中資股規模｜國際金融協會（IIF）數據指出，於今年1月至10月期間，流入 中資股的外資規模達到506億美元 • 內地本周｜內地周四公布11月份的5年期及1年期貸款市場報價利率（LPR） • 美股本周關注｜ Nvidia業績 及政府恢復公布經濟數據 • 資產配置要點｜建議分層佈局，底層配置強勢龍頭，次級可配置主題型ETF • 固定收益資產具最低與股票之相關性｜降息預期推動全球固定收益ETF資金 淨流入 • 資產配置｜建議配置5%~1 ...

Group 1 - Pang Donglai has not authorized any accounts for live streaming sales, discovering 120 infringing live streams and over 15,000 infringing videos, with approximately 11,900 videos taken down [2] - Rongbai Technology signed a cooperation agreement with CATL, committing to supply no less than 60% of its total procurement volume annually, with a potential price reduction for large orders [3] - Syrah Resources has extended the deadline for resolving graphite supply agreement breach claims with Tesla, as the company works to maintain its U.S. operations [4] Group 2 - The discovery of a new type of quasi-particle that efficiently couples electrons, phonons, and photons marks a significant advancement in the field of solid-state physics [6] - The Chinese mutual fund industry is undergoing a fee rate reform, with many third-party sales institutions adjusting their strategies to adapt to market changes [7] - Sony Pictures has obtained adaptation rights for the popular Chinese toy Labubu, indicating potential for a new IP series in Hollywood [8] Group 3 - Airbus is expected to secure a significant portion of jet orders from FlyDubai at the Dubai Airshow, with negotiations ongoing for approximately 100 A321NEO aircraft [9] - The humanoid robot industry is entering a phase of commercial viability, with heterogeneous robots being integrated into various applications such as sanitation and healthcare [10] - Harvard University significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings by 257% to $443 million, making it its largest disclosed position [11] Group 4 - The 27th China International High-tech Achievements Fair saw over 450,000 attendees and facilitated transactions exceeding 170 billion yuan [12] - Nearly 200 labor service brands have been cultivated in poverty-stricken areas, with workers in skilled positions earning significantly higher wages [13] - The issuance of equity funds in China reached 141.068 billion yuan in 2023, a 132% increase year-on-year, with many funds closing early due to high demand [14]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in Pop Mart's stock price, despite strong sales data, raises questions about market sentiment and potential underlying issues affecting investor confidence [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 23, Pop Mart's stock fell by 10.6%, with trading volume reaching three times the average daily volume, breaking through psychological support levels of 250 and 230 HKD, marking a four-month low [2]. - The stock's decline began during overnight trading, with Pop Mart's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) dropping by 10% and trading volume hitting six times the average [2]. - The trading volume for Pop Mart on the same day exceeded 9.5 billion HKD, making it the highest traded stock in Hong Kong, surpassing Alibaba's 7.8 billion HKD [3]. Group 2: Short Selling and Market Dynamics - Short selling activity for Pop Mart reached a record high, with approximately 1.99 billion HKD in short sales, accounting for 10.8% of the total short sales in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The number of shares shorted increased by 52% quarter-over-quarter and 64.3% year-over-year, representing 6.3% of the free float, equivalent to 46.8 million shares [3]. Group 3: Competitive Concerns - The chairman of Miniso, Ye Guofu, indicated plans to enhance the company's IP platform through partnerships with more artists, potentially intensifying competition for Pop Mart [4]. Group 4: Demand and Pricing Issues - Reports indicated a decline in the global second-hand prices of Pop Mart's IP "Labubu" since its summer peak, raising concerns about the sustainability of demand [5]. - The market's core concern may not solely be about second-hand demand but rather the potential peak in Pop Mart's revenue growth, leading to higher expectations for profitability [5]. Group 5: Analyst Sentiment - Despite Pop Mart's better-than-expected quarterly performance, analysts express uncertainty about the stock's bottom and are hesitant to recommend buying at current levels [6].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral" due to a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation, raising market concerns about the potential decline in product popularity [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock opened with a significant drop, falling over 8% at one point, and closed at 259 HKD, reflecting a decline of 6.43% [1] - Since reaching an all-time high on August 26, Pop Mart's stock price has decreased by 30% [3] Group 2: Product Market Trends - Concerns have emerged regarding the waning popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the Labubu series, with its trading prices on the secondary market experiencing volatility [1] - The average transaction price for the Labubu series has shown a downward trend, with some regular models trading below their original price of 99 CNY [1] - The hidden version "Ben Wo," a limited edition product, has seen its second-hand market price drop to around 700-800 CNY, with some listings going as low as just over 200 CNY [2]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral" due to a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation [1][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - Following the downgrade, Pop Mart's stock opened with a significant drop, falling over 8% on September 15, with a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion HKD, and its total market capitalization dropping below 350 billion HKD [1] - As of the report, Pop Mart's stock price was 259.2 HKD per share, reflecting a decline of over 6% [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - Concerns have arisen regarding the potential decline of Pop Mart's product craze, particularly with the fluctuating prices of its flagship product, Labubu, in the secondary market [3] - The average transaction price for Labubu has shown a downward trend, with more sellers expressing bearish sentiment [3] Group 3: Product Sales and Consumer Interest - The recent launch of the SKULLPANDA new product series saw minimal consumer interest, with only 10 people queuing for the release, contrasting sharply with previous launches that attracted thousands [6] - Sales data from Pop Mart's official flagship store indicated a volatile sales pattern for the new blind boxes, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 shortly after, likely due to high return rates [6]

本报讯 （记者李雯珊）近日，广州金融发展服务中心（以下简称"广州金服"）携手华南师范大学经济 与管理学院、湾区金融素养教育研究中心专家团队，精心研发推出"探索'谷子经济'的奥秘——从'喜 欢'到'懂消费'"金融素养开学第一课特色课程。课程结合当前火爆的"谷子经济"现象，深入剖析潮玩产 业背后的市场机制：包括供给、需求与产品定价逻辑，不同公司的商业模式和潮玩文化IP运营，顾客情 绪价值与理性消费等，引导学生学会辨识消费陷阱，树立理性消费观，旨在进一步提升青少年金融素养 与综合素养，培养新时代湾区优秀少年。 9月2日至4日，广州金服携手华师经管学院专家团队，先后走进华南师范大学附属开发区实验小学、广 州市越秀区铁一小学等学校，以热门潮玩IP"拉布布"（Labubu）为切入点，开展金融素养教育开学第一 课。该课程累计吸引了300余名学生的积极参与，现场十分热烈。 本次"金融素养开学第一课"是广州金服与高校、金融机构协同推进青少年金融素养教育的一次创新实 践，以"谷子经济"为切入点，将潮流文化与经济学原理结合；以"防非反诈"为落脚点，将金融安全与生 活场景结合，真正实现了"教育接地气、知识入人心"。下一步，广州金服将 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Period**: First half of 2025 - **Revenue**: 1.385 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 70.3% [2][3] - **Net Profit**: 468 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 385.6%, with a net profit margin of 33.7% [2][3] Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Self-owned products accounted for 99.1% of total revenue, with The Monsters series generating 481 million RMB, a 668% increase [2][6] - Plush products became a bestseller, generating 614 million RMB, a 1,276.2% increase [2][8] - **Market Performance**: - Domestic market revenue accounted for 59.7%, while overseas revenue grew by 439.6% to 559 million RMB [2][15] - E-commerce channel revenue share increased to 45.8% [2][16] Product and IP Performance - **IP Highlights**: - Labubu became a super IP, contributing 34%-35% of total sales [7][24] - Five IPs exceeded 1 billion RMB in revenue, with The Monsters leading [6][7] - **Product Categories**: - Plush products surpassed figurines for the first time, becoming the largest category [10] - Gross margin improved from 60% to over 70% due to pricing strategies and cost optimizations [8] Global Market Expansion - **Store Count**: - Total of 571 stores globally, with 443 in China, 69 in Asia-Pacific, 41 in the Americas, and 18 in Europe [4] - **Future Plans**: - Continued exploration of emerging markets in the Middle East, Central Europe, and South America [17][30] - Plans to open flagship stores in major cities like Paris, Sydney, Milan, and New York [17] Operational Efficiency and Production Capacity - **Production Capacity**: - Monthly production of plush products reached over 30 million units, a tenfold increase compared to the previous year [18][19] - Automation and lean production techniques significantly enhanced efficiency [19] - **Supply Chain Innovations**: - Adoption of multi-color injection molding and sand-type 3D printing technologies to improve product quality [21][46] Customer Experience and Marketing Strategies - **Customer Experience Enhancements**: - Average processing time for in-store purchases reduced significantly [36] - Focus on improving customer service and product flow in stores [35] - **Marketing Approaches**: - Differentiated strategies for various consumer segments, emphasizing rapid customer acquisition and engagement [47] Future Outlook - **Revenue and Profitability Expectations**: - Anticipated overall net profit margin of approximately 35% for 2025 [22][41] - **Sustainability and Long-term Strategy**: - Emphasis on health and sustainability of the business model, with a focus on maintaining a balanced IP portfolio [22][29] Conclusion - **Overall Strategy**: - Pop Mart aims to leverage its strong IP portfolio and global expansion strategy to drive future growth while ensuring operational efficiency and enhancing customer experience [49]

Core Insights - The "cultural going global" trend is gaining momentum amid intensified global competition and deep digital technology empowerment [2] - Key drivers for the success of Chinese cultural products overseas include industrial "hard power," cultural "confidence," and user "empathy" [2][3] - The diversification of market expansion is evident, with Chinese companies targeting not only Europe and the US but also Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America [4] Group 1: Key Drivers of Success - Industrial "hard power" refers to the advanced technology and complete industrial chain that Chinese cultural products have developed over decades, leading to successful global launches [2] - Cultural "confidence" guides the creative direction, encouraging companies to draw from traditional Chinese culture and adapt it for contemporary global resonance [3] - User "empathy" is crucial for success, as products must resonate emotionally with users, particularly in the Z-generation consumer era [3] Group 2: Market Expansion Strategies - Companies are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective in their overseas strategies, focusing on understanding foreign consumer habits and market dynamics [5][6] - The importance of user co-creation and leveraging AI for enhanced user engagement in content creation is emphasized [5] - The gaming sector, particularly casual and strategy games, is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies needing to adapt to changing advertising and consumer behavior [6] Group 3: ESG Compliance Challenges - ESG compliance has become an essential aspect of overseas operations for Chinese companies, transitioning from a "nice-to-have" to a "must-have" [7] - New stringent ESG regulations, particularly from the EU, pose significant challenges for companies, including requirements for transparency in supply chains [8] - Initiatives are being developed to assist companies in navigating ESG compliance, including diagnostic tools and innovative financial products [8]

Group 1: Gold Market and Central Banks - The international spot gold price has surged over 60% since early last year, reflecting heightened market risk aversion and increasing gold's share in global reserve assets [1] - Central banks worldwide are accelerating de-dollarization efforts, reducing reliance on the US dollar amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over US debt risks [1] - The ongoing "gold hoarding" trend among central banks may continue to undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1] Group 2: Smartphone Production - In Q1 2025, global smartphone production reached 289 million units, a decrease of approximately 3% year-on-year, with stable performance across brands [2] - China's smartphone sales benefited from policy incentives, leading to slight growth in sales during the first quarter [2] - Market demand is expected to remain subdued in Q2 due to international uncertainties, with production forecasts holding steady compared to Q1 [2] Group 3: Robotics Industry - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach a value of $4 billion by 2028, driven by advancements in AI and mechanical technologies [2] - Humanoid robots are seen as key enablers for computing power, with clear application potential in various sectors [2] Group 4: Consumer Market Changes - Henan entrepreneurs are reshaping the consumer market landscape with notable companies like Mixue Ice Cream, Pop Mart, and Pang Donglai, which have become significant players in their respective sectors [4] - Pop Mart has established itself as a billion-dollar empire in the trendy toy market, while Mixue leads in the beverage sector with a market cap exceeding HKD 200 billion [4] - Pang Donglai has gained attention for its unique business model, becoming a benchmark for imitation in the industry [4] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yi Yatong, a supply chain giant, has undergone a significant management change with the resignation of its long-serving general manager, marking the first change in 21 years [4] - The company received a regulatory warning two months prior, indicating issues in corporate governance and financial practices [4] - Ant Group's Ant Digital has initiated the application process for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, aiming to establish a global headquarters there [3] Group 6: Financial Updates - Nanjing Pharmaceutical announced that its first tranche of medium-term notes, amounting to 1 billion yuan, will be redeemed on June 20, 2025, with an interest rate of 3.1% [5] - Di Ao Micro plans to increase capital by 200 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, focusing on R&D and industrialization of automotive-grade chips [6] - China Power Construction has won a 10.77 billion yuan EPC contract for a large offshore wind power project in Liaoning [7]

Core Insights - Henan entrepreneurs are reshaping the consumer market landscape with notable companies like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Pang Donglai, referred to as the "three elephants" from Henan [1] - Pop Mart has transformed into a billion-dollar empire, with its IP Labubu becoming a global trendsetter [2] - Mixue Group leads the world in the number of beverage stores, with a market value exceeding HKD 200 billion [3] - Pang Donglai has gained popularity due to its unique business model, becoming a model for imitation in the industry [4] Group 1: Business Philosophy - Henan merchants combine Confucian moderation with long-term business strategies, focusing on building core competencies in niche markets [5] - Many successful Henan companies have taken decades to establish themselves as leaders in their respective categories, starting from traditional retail [6] - A pragmatic approach to business, including precise positioning and detailed operations, has helped many Henan entrepreneurs create industry barriers [7] Group 2: Corporate Culture - The spirit of "义利" (benefit and righteousness) is a foundational aspect of Henan merchants, exemplified by generous employee benefits and profit-sharing mechanisms [8] - Notable examples include the founder of a crane company who spent nearly 10 million on a trip for over 4,000 employees' parents, and Pang Donglai's high employee salaries and benefits [8][9] - The philosophy of sharing value and reducing employee pressure is emphasized by leaders like Yu Donglai [9] Group 3: Innovation - Henan entrepreneurs are characterized by their willingness to innovate and explore uncharted territories [10] - Pop Mart, initially underestimated, achieved profitability after years of losses and has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, with a 480% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [11] - Other companies like Guoquan Shihui and Duofuduo have also emerged as leaders in their respective markets, showcasing the innovative spirit of Henan businesses [13][14]