Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector is benefiting from accelerated capital market reforms, with a continued downward trend in risk-free interest rates, improved long-term capital market access, and sustained high trading volumes in the stock market, leading to strong mid-year performance for brokerages and insurance companies [1] - The non-bank financial sector has a positive earnings forecast rate of 83%, with both growth rates and forecast rates ranking high among industries [1] - The securities sub-sector, as a significant part of the non-bank financial sector, is also experiencing notable performance growth due to capital market improvements and a low base effect [1] Group 2 - The Securities ETF tracks the securities company index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the securities sector, including brokerage, investment banking, and asset management [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI All Share Securities Company ETF Connect C (012363) and Guotai CSI All Share Securities Company ETF Connect A (012362) [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 17, the latest market financing balance reached 1,891.157 billion yuan, showing an increase of 7.073 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 21 out of 31 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance [1]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The computer industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.717 billion yuan to a total of 148.498 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Electric equipment: increased by 0.984 billion yuan to 136.614 billion yuan - Communication: increased by 0.740 billion yuan to 65.232 billion yuan - Machinery: increased by 0.716 billion yuan to 97.465 billion yuan [1]. - Ten industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with significant reductions in: - Food and beverage: decreased by 0.172 billion yuan to 50.847 billion yuan - Coal: decreased by 0.132 billion yuan to 15.815 billion yuan - Non-bank financials: decreased by 0.083 billion yuan to 161.560 billion yuan [2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The construction materials industry had the highest percentage increase in financing balance, with a growth rate of 1.45% [1]. - Other industries with notable percentage increases include: - Social services: 1.36% - Transportation: 1.27% - Computer: 1.17% [1]. - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Coal: decreased by 0.83% - Beauty care: decreased by 0.59% - Steel: decreased by 0.40% [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed resilience with major indices mostly rising in the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.20% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.64% [2] - The average daily trading volume increased to 1.55 trillion yuan, up by 134.77 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and computer industries leading in gains, while banking, real estate, and coal industries faced declines [2] Economic Data - Fixed asset investment in the first half of the year grew by 2.8% year-on-year, a decline compared to the previous year [3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment rose by 7.5% [3] - Real estate investment decreased by 11.2%, further widening the decline compared to the previous year [3] - Social retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year, benefiting from policies like trade-in incentives [3] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, solidifying the economic growth foundation [3] Policy Insights - The State Council meeting on July 16 emphasized strengthening domestic circulation and regulating competition in the new energy vehicle sector, indicating a focus on expanding domestic demand and countering excessive competition [3] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue its high-level fluctuations, with future performance influenced by liquidity and policy direction [3] - Potential investment opportunities include the banking sector due to regulatory support for insurance capital entering the market, and recovery opportunities in power equipment and building materials sectors driven by anti-competitive measures [4] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries present thematic investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [4] Financing and Margin Trading - All major indices in the A-share market rose last week, with the ChiNext Index showing the highest increase of 2.47% [6] - As of July 15, the margin trading balance reached 1.884 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.49 billion yuan from the previous week [6] - The non-bank financial, telecommunications, and metals sectors saw significant net buying in margin trading, while textiles and retail sectors experienced lower net buying [7]

Core Viewpoint - The AH premium index has been declining since 2025, indicating a shift in mainland policies and a low interest rate environment leading to a repricing of H-shares by southbound funds [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since the "9.24" market event in 2024, there has been a significant inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, with a notable increase in trading volume, reflecting the growing attractiveness of undervalued leading stocks to mainland investors [1] - The current holdings of southbound and mainland capital in the AH stock H index account for 50%, with insurance capital heavily investing in the banking sector being a primary reason for the decline in the AH premium index [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The strong motivation for insurance capital to allocate to H-shares in the banking sector suggests that there is still room for the AH premium to decline, which is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on the index [1] - The listing of high-quality A-shares in Hong Kong has expanded the downward space for the premium index, enhancing liquidity in the Hong Kong market and alleviating the discounts on H-shares due to insufficient liquidity, thereby narrowing the valuation gap between the two markets [1] Group 3: Recommendations - In this context, it is recommended to focus on scarce assets in Hong Kong stocks that have significant industry trends, high earnings visibility, and market catalysts, including sectors such as: 1. AI software; 2. Innovative pharmaceuticals; 3. Non-bank financials; 4. Banking [1]

Market Analysis - US PPI showed a mild slowdown, with the June PPI unchanged month - on - month and up 2.3% year - on - year, and the core PPI also unchanged month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year, the smallest increase since late 2023 [1] - In China, the State Council Premier chaired a meeting to discuss policies for strengthening the domestic market, reported on the regulation of the new energy vehicle industry competition order, and the initial rectification of audit - found problems in the 2024 central budget execution [1] - A - share market: The three major A - share indices fluctuated and adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%. The social services, automobile, pharmaceutical and biological, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the steel, banking, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.4 trillion yuan [1] - US stock market: Trump's remarks on Fed Chairman Powell did not lead to immediate action. The three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.53% to 44254.78 points [1] - Futures market: As the current - month futures contracts are to be delivered tomorrow, the basis is converging. Both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased [1] Strategy - US PPI data was temporarily stable. Trump's attitude towards Powell initially worried the market, but the three major US stock indices rebounded after an initial decline [2] - The trading activity in the domestic market declined compared to the previous period. Sector rotation accelerated, high - priced stocks entered an adjustment phase, and the market shifted to a sentiment - driven trading mode. The main stock indices showed a divergent trend, and the banking sector's decline led to relatively weak performance of large - cap stock indices in the short term [2] Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends and styles [5][7][9] 2. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on July 16, 2025. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3503.78, down 0.03% from the previous day [12] - Charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [12] 3. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. For example, the trading volume of IF was 100264, a decrease of 24033, and the open interest was 255864, a decrease of 11467 [17] - Charts show the open interest, open - interest ratio, and net positions of foreign investors in different stock index futures contracts, as well as the basis and inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [18][25][27]

Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and management of the fund "Oriental Theme Selection" (400032), highlighting its long-term underperformance and recent recovery efforts under new management [2][3]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on March 23, 2015, and has a cumulative net value of 0.9978 yuan, reflecting a -0.22% performance since inception [2][11]. - The fund has experienced significant fluctuations, particularly during market downturns, leading to a current net value that is still below the initial investment [2][3]. Management Performance - The current fund manager, Zhou Siyue, has managed the fund since November 13, 2023, with a return of -9.02% during his tenure [2][3]. - The previous manager, Jiang Qian, achieved a remarkable return of 122.18% over nearly five years, successfully bringing the fund back to break-even [2][3]. Recent Market Analysis - In the first quarter of 2025, despite poor performance in the US stock market, the A-share market showed moderate growth, particularly in small-cap sectors driven by innovations in AI and robotics [3]. - The macroeconomic environment remains stable but uncertain, with low growth rates in investment, exports, and consumption [3]. Fund Performance Metrics - Year-to-date performance is +2.98%, with a ranking of 1365 out of 2296 in its category [11]. - Over the past year, the fund has gained 14.51%, ranking 977 out of 2253, which is considered good [11]. - The fund's three-year performance shows a decline of -34.42%, ranking poorly at 1852 out of 2039 [11]. Fund Holdings - As of the first quarter of 2025, the fund's major holdings include stocks from non-bank financial institutions, such as Dongfang Caifu, China Galaxy, and CITIC Securities [14]. - The fund has seen a significant reduction in total shares over the past two to three years, decreasing by over 5.5 billion shares, which is more than 44% [13][14].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China, the performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, and the implications of U.S. economic policies under the Trump administration. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Domestic Supply and Demand Rebalancing** The core policy goal for the second half of the year is to achieve domestic supply and demand rebalancing through a combination of policies to address the challenges posed by the continuous negative growth of PPI [2][18][35] 2. **A-Share Market Trends** The A-share market is expected to exhibit a slow bull market trend, with a significant focus on the period around September when U.S.-China tariffs are clarified and domestic incremental policies are introduced [5][29][36] 3. **Hong Kong Stock Market Performance** The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, benefiting from a weak dollar environment and expectations of a shift in economic power [6][7] 4. **U.S. Economic Policy Shifts** The Trump administration's economic policies have shifted focus from austerity and debt reduction to tax cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize the economy and reduce U.S. debt costs [8][11] 5. **Challenges in the U.S. Economy** The U.S. economy faces challenges such as rising unemployment, high deficit rates, and inflationary pressures, which are expected to impact economic performance in the second half of the year [11][14] 6. **Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies** The overall market sentiment is expected to remain stable, with specific investment strategies focusing on sectors like financial innovation, energy transformation, and AI [31][37] 7. **Consumer Spending Highlights** Key areas of consumer spending to watch include service-related consumption, new consumption patterns, and childcare subsidies, which are expected to improve in the second half of the year [20][22] 8. **Impact of Anti-Inflation Measures** Anti-inflation measures are expected to affect traditional industries significantly, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and steel [21][34] 9. **Stock-Bond Rebalancing** The trend of stock-bond rebalancing is supported by low bond yields and the increasing attractiveness of equities, particularly in the context of a weak dollar [3][35] 10. **Future Market Expectations** The market is anticipated to experience a slow bull trend, with significant attention on the September timeframe for potential policy shifts and economic indicators [27][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **ETF Inflows** Stock ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, becoming an important vehicle for asset allocation among residents, indicating a shift in investment preferences [4][25][26] 2. **Global Economic Context** The global economic context, including the performance of non-U.S. assets and the implications of a weak dollar, is crucial for understanding the investment landscape [9][15] 3. **Long-term Investment Themes** Long-term investment themes include a focus on sectors like stable coins, energy transformation, AI, and defense, which are expected to drive future growth [33][38] 4. **Policy-Driven Market Dynamics** The dynamics of the market are heavily influenced by policy decisions, particularly in response to inflation and economic pressures, which will shape investment strategies moving forward [34][36]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Q2 2025 GDP shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, supported by export gains offsetting construction sector drag [3][4][9] - The industrial production in June increased by 1.0 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year, while the service sector remained stable [3] - The disposable income growth for residents slightly decreased to 5.4%, with consumer spending showing marginal recovery [4] Group 2: Consumer Market Insights - June retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, impacted by the timing of the 618 shopping festival and regional subsidy controls [20][21] - The contribution of "trade-in" spending to retail sales has diminished, with June's trade-in spending progress estimated at 54% [5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential policy support for domestic consumption, particularly in the liquor segment [20][25] Group 3: Industry Specific Analysis - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with a focus on top liquor brands for strategic investment [20][25] - The machinery sector, particularly 隆盛科技, is positioned for growth with a projected revenue of 2.24 billion yuan in 2024, driven by its EGR systems and electric motor components [31][32] - The company is expanding into humanoid robotics, leveraging its precision manufacturing capabilities and established client relationships with major automotive players [33] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the "emotional consumption" theme, particularly in gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29][30] - Specific recommendations include leading brands in the liquor industry and innovative companies in the snack sector, which are expected to maintain strong growth [23][25]

Report Overview - Report Title: "How to View Photovoltaic Convertible Bonds under the Background of 'Anti-Involution' - Convertible Bond Weekly Report 20250712" - Report Type: Fixed Income Asset Allocation | Comment Report - Report Date: 2025-07-16 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - From July 7 to July 12, 2025, the convertible bond market continued its mild recovery, with increased trading activity. Medium - sized and convertible bonds with expected elasticity performed relatively well. The equity market was highly differentiated, with low - valuation and cyclical manufacturing sectors becoming the main investment directions [2][6]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector has low market attention and congestion. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have cost - effective valuations. Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry's fundamentals are expected to recover, and the holdings of active equity funds may gradually increase [2][6]. - The valuation of the convertible bond market is differentiated by the parity range. The low - parity range shows significant differentiation, while the valuation of the high - parity range has increased. The implied volatility has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious [2][6]. - The primary market supply of convertible bonds is steadily released, and the clause game shows intensified differences. It is recommended to focus on the layout opportunities in the low - valuation and high - safety - margin directions, taking into account the rhythm and rotation [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Weekly Review - **Photovoltaic Equipment Sector**: The market attention and capital participation of the photovoltaic equipment sector are at a relatively low historical level. The allocation ratio of active funds has significantly decreased, and the turnover and trading volume are weak. There are signs of chip clearing, and the congestion is at a relatively low historical level. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the supply - side clearing is expected to repair the fundamentals. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have strong bond - bottom returns and valuation advantages, showing valuation repair and risk - return matching [9]. - **A - share Market**: The A - share market continued to rise in shock, with obvious style differentiation. Funds were concentrated on low - valuation and cyclical manufacturing sectors. The real estate, steel and other sectors led the gains, and the trading activity increased significantly, reflecting the strengthened expectation of valuation repair. There was increased differentiation within the growth direction, with some sectors maintaining high popularity and others experiencing a decline in trading. The trading rhythm of the market accelerated, and the rotation characteristics were enhanced [9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise moderately, with increased trading activity. Medium - sized convertible bonds performed well, and the style slightly inclined to elastic varieties. The valuation of the convertible bond market showed a differentiated trend according to the parity range. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined, and the sentiment became more cautious. In terms of industries, the financial and pharmaceutical sectors attracted capital inflows, and the cyclical sectors were relatively strong [9]. - **Primary Market of Convertible Bonds**: The primary market of convertible bonds maintained a stable rhythm. One convertible bond was open for subscription, two new bonds were listed, and five companies updated their issuance plans. The issuance momentum is expected to continue to be steadily released. In terms of clause games, there were no proposals for downward revisions, and some bonds clearly stated not to revise downward. Multiple varieties announced forced redemptions, and some promised not to redeem in advance [9]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - **Equity Theme**: The A - share market continued its structural differentiation, with increased short - term trading activity. Gaming funds continued to concentrate on high - elasticity directions, and the financial technology theme was strong. The new energy sector was highly differentiated, and the digital economy showed a structural recovery. The overall market trading sentiment was high, and the theme rotation accelerated [24]. - **Convertible Bond Theme**: The convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase rate moderately narrowing. The trading activity reached a recent high, and medium - sized convertible bonds performed better. The valuation of the convertible bond market was differentiated by the parity and market price ranges. The implied volatility declined, and the market sentiment was slightly cautious. The non - banking, coal, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, and the trading volume was concentrated in the pharmaceutical and biochemical sectors [27]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking - **Main Stock Indexes**: The main A - share stock indexes continued to strengthen, with small and medium - sized and science - innovation stocks performing prominently. The market capital showed a net outflow, but the scale of the net outflow decreased, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment [29][30]. - **Industry Performance**: The A - share market showed a structural market dominated by low - valuation sectors. The real estate sector led the gains, followed by the steel, comprehensive, and non - banking financial sectors. The automobile sector led the decline, and some previous hot sectors faced correction pressure. The market capital was concentrated on low - valuation cyclical sectors and also considered structural opportunities in the growth track [34]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase rate moderately narrowing. Medium - sized convertible bonds performed better, and the trading activity reached a recent high. The valuation of the convertible bond market was differentiated by the parity and market price ranges. The implied volatility declined, and the market sentiment was slightly cautious. The non - banking, coal, and social service sectors led the gains, and the pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and power equipment sectors had the highest trading volume [45][55]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking and Clause Game - **New Bond Issuance**: One convertible bond was open for subscription (Guanghe Convertible Bond), and two new bonds were listed (Huachen Convertible Bond and Luwei Convertible Bond). Five listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, including three accepted by the exchange and two approved by the general meeting of shareholders [66][67]. - **Clause Game**: There were no proposals for downward revisions of convertible bonds during the week, and some bonds clearly stated not to revise downward. Multiple varieties announced forced redemptions, and some promised not to redeem in advance. There were 3 convertible bonds that announced they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 13 that announced no downward revisions, 2 that announced they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 that announced no early redemptions, and 4 that announced early redemptions [75][80].