Group 1: Industry Chain Layout and Core Advantages - The company focuses on compound fertilizer business, with an integrated industry chain that includes upstream nitrogen and phosphorus resources, enhancing cost control and resource ownership [1] - Nitrogen fertilizer chain includes a "salt-alkali-fertilizer" integration, with projects in Hubei and Guangxi totaling 2.7 million tons of synthetic ammonia, aiming for self-sufficiency in nitrogen raw materials [1][2] - Phosphorus fertilizer chain utilizes graded phosphorus acid technology, with a future mining project in Leibo expected to produce 6.9 million tons/year, ensuring stable supply of phosphate rock [2] Group 2: Future Development Outlook - The company is optimistic about the future of compound fertilizers, supported by national food security strategies and a projected grain output of 1.4 trillion jin in 2024 [3] - Agricultural modernization and scientific fertilization techniques are expected to drive demand for compound fertilizers, enhancing market competitiveness [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - The company currently has an annual production capacity of 350,000 tons for industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, fully sold externally [3] - The demand for industrial phosphates is anticipated to grow due to the booming new energy sector and increasing penetration of water-soluble fertilizers [3] Group 4: Project Developments in Synthetic Ammonia - The Hubei base is constructing a capacity of 700,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, with additional production lines for various fertilizers and refined salt [4][5] - The Guangxi base plans to build a capacity of 2 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 3 million tons of urea, filling production gaps in southern China and enhancing market responsiveness [5] Group 5: Phosphate Mining Resources - The company owns three phosphate mines in Leibo, with a total resource reserve of approximately 549 million tons [5] - The mining projects are progressing, with the Aju Luo Xia mine starting construction for a capacity of 2.9 million tons/year, while optimization designs are underway for the Niu Niu Zhai East mine [5]

Group 1 - The price for India's potash fertilizer import contract has been set at $349 per ton, marking a $70 increase from the previous year, which is a 25% rise [1] - The contract was signed between Russian potash company BPC and Indian fertilizer importer IPL, with a total volume of 650,000 tons to be delivered by December 2025 [1] - The price aligns with market expectations, as industry insiders had anticipated a price around $350 per ton [1] Group 2 - India is the world's fourth-largest importer of potash fertilizer, with imports of 3.25 million tons in 2021 and an estimated 3 million tons in 2023 [2] - The domestic price of potash in China has seen significant increases, with local 60% potash prices ranging from 3,200 to 3,250 yuan per ton [2] - Recent production cuts from Belarus and Russia, which account for 39% of global potash exports, have intensified supply-demand tensions in the market [2]

Core Points - The company has announced a profit distribution and capital increase plan, which includes a cash dividend of 0.15 RMB per share and a capital increase of 0.30 shares for each share held [1][2][6] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to 30 million RMB, while the capital increase will result in an additional 60 million shares being issued, bringing the total share capital to 260 million shares [2][6] - The plan was approved at the annual shareholders' meeting held on May 20, 2025 [2] Distribution and Capital Increase Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to shareholders registered by the close of trading on June 11, 2025, with the ex-dividend date set for June 12, 2025 [2][3] - The cash dividend will be distributed through the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch [3][4] - Shareholders holding shares for more than one year will not be subject to personal income tax on the cash dividend, while those holding for less than one month will face a 20% tax [4][5] Share Capital Structure Changes - Prior to the capital increase, the total share capital was 200 million shares, which will increase to 260 million shares post-distribution [6] - The diluted earnings per share for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to be 0.46 RMB after the capital increase [6]

Report Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is weak, with urea export inspections underway and domestic urea exports proceeding in an orderly manner. Downstream industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine has weakened, while agricultural demand shows signs of starting but is weaker than expected. Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits, with few maintenance enterprises and high - level device operating rates. The daily urea output will remain at a high level. The urea export window is open, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased, leading to increased willingness of factories to ship goods to ports and rising port inventories. It is recommended to continuously monitor the start of downstream agricultural demand for urea and relevant export policies [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16] 2. Urea Production - Covers the weekly urea production and the loss of urea device maintenance [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [22][24][26] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - Contains FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of domestic urea, price differences, and export and disk export profits [29][34][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Comprises the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises [49][45] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume [48][51][54] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On June 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,761 yuan/ton (- 12). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,850 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,870 yuan/ton (0), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (0). The price of small - sized anthracite was 660 yuan/ton (0). The basis in Shandong was 109 yuan/ton (+ 12), in Henan was 89 yuan/ton (+ 12), and in Jiangsu was 139 yuan/ton (+ 12). The urea production profit was 403 yuan/ton (0), and the export profit was 487 yuan/ton (0) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.83% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 98.06 million tons (+ 6.32), and the port sample inventory was 20.50 million tons (+ 0.20) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.09% (+ 2.52%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.98% (- 3.51%), and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises was 5.88 days (- 0.06) [1]

【冠通研究】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，震荡收跌。6 月 1 日氮肥协会对 6 月的各区 域的尿素出厂指导价建议为 5 月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导价基础 上浮 100 元。受消息影响，今日盘面高开。端午节假期内上游工厂降价吸单， 收单相对顺畅，今日期货盘面影响市场情绪，下游根据转为谨慎。基本面来 看，供应端端午节假期小幅波动，龙华出现临时检修情况，今日华锦复产，总 体供应表现充足。需求端，农业经销商备肥逐渐开启，对尿素行情提供支撑， 复合肥端走货预计持续至本月中旬，但开工率将转弱。上游工厂继续累库，主 要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，今日受氮 肥协会指导价的影响，盘面高开，但目前需求处于空档期，盘面转为下跌，但 是目前仍有农业需求的预期，以及后续出口的影响，盘面预计不会深跌，但供 需相对宽松，农需时期带来的行情反弹上方空间或为不足。 【期现行情】 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1800 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1761 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.96%，持仓量 231078 手（+5951 手）。前二十 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1761 | -12 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 65 | -5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 231078 | 5951 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | 12090 | 371 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6619 | -235 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1850 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1900 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1870 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1890 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 109 | 12 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 355 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 360 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 20.5 | 0.2 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

尿素2025年6月报： 回归供需季节性 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-03 目 录 01 尿素行情回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市展望 01 尿素5月行情回顾 受出口信息持续影响，5月上旬尿素价格高位震荡，下旬回归实际供需矛盾，尿素产销转弱，价格高位回落，接近出口 调整前运行区间。5月30日尿素09合约收盘于1773元/吨，较上月底下调84元/吨，尿素河南市场价格1880元/吨，较 上月底下调26元/吨。 尿素09合约期货价格（元/吨） 1050 1550 2050 2550 3050 3550 中国尿素(小颗粒)日度均价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素基差与价差 价差：5月尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，5月30日9-1价差70元/吨， ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 18 元至 1773 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 下跌 10 元至 1850 元/吨，多头持仓增加 10651 手至 18.36 万手，空头持仓增加 7278 手至 17.18 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.46 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.02 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | 期增加 3.12 万吨；开工 88.96%，较去年同期 80.07%提升 8.89%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 98.06 万吨，较上周增加 6.32 万吨，环比增 | | | | 加 | 6.89%。尿素港口库存 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Under the joint suppression of domestic fundamentals and policies, the upside space for urea is limited, and the spot is expected to be under pressure. However, the opening of the export channel may relieve the fundamental pressure and support the price, with possible periodic rebounds. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This cycle, some enterprises such as Yankuang Lunan Chemical are under maintenance, while Jiangsu Jinmei Hengsheng Chemical, Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Production, and Anhui Quansheng Chemical have resumed production. Next week, the daily urea output will be around 20.5 tons [5] Inventory - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 98.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 tons, and the inventory of major Chinese ports was 20.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons [5] Demand - In the agricultural sector, there is an expectation for the start of top - dressing for corn fertilizer after the wheat harvest, but the start is not obvious yet, with only sporadic follow - up. In the industrial sector, the start - up of compound fertilizers shows signs of weakening, and the consumption of urea is expected to decline after production ends. In terms of exports, the subsequent factory inspections are expected to boost market sentiment in the short term [5] Spot - On Sunday of this week, the price in Shandong was 1810 (09 basis - 37), and in Henan it was 1800 (09 basis - 47). The nitrogen fertilizer association's guidance price for June affected the market, with Shandong urea factories receiving more orders and raising prices [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the agricultural chemicals sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., while recommending "Hold" for others like Haier and Guangxin Co. [20] Core Insights - The recent explosion incident has tightened the supply-demand dynamics for K-amine and other intermediates, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the pesticide industry and potentially drive up nitrocellulose prices [5][12] - The agricultural chemicals sector is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventories being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures remain [5][12] - The report highlights the potential for stricter safety and environmental regulations following the recent incidents, which could further enhance the agricultural chemicals industry's cyclical recovery [5][12] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term [6] - The chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with April's chemical industry PPI showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [8] - The report notes that the recent explosion at a chemical facility has led to increased prices for K-amine and related products, with recommendations to focus on companies like Hongyang and Lier Chemical [5][12] Chemical Product Prices and Trends - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a stable price for urea at 1830 RMB/ton and fluctuations in pesticide prices, with some herbicides seeing price increases [12][22] - The report indicates that the price of nitrocellulose has risen significantly, with export prices increasing from 2.06 USD/kg in October 2021 to 4.75 USD/kg in April 2025 [5][12] Company Recommendations - Specific companies are highlighted for investment based on their market positions and growth potential, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and others in the agricultural chemicals sector [20] - The report suggests monitoring companies with mature nitrochemical processes, such as Yangnong Chemical and Guangxin Co., due to expected regulatory changes [5][12]