Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date and Authors - Date: October 22, 2025 - Authors: Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, Zhang Lei from Hongyuan Futures' Metal Research Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tariff uncertainties and a slow decline in domestic social inventories may cause aluminum prices to fluctuate. For alumina, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit price drops. For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariffs exist, but expectations of Fed rate cuts and reduced tapering, along with other factors, may lead to prices first weakening and then strengthening [2][4][5][6] Summary by Section 1. Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: New projects like the bauxite recycling in Qingzhen, the spherical alumina project of Yishitong, and the alumina projects in Guangxi and Indonesia are expected to increase production in October. Domestic bauxite production may increase while imports decrease due to new bauxite mines' production [3] - **Cost and price**: The average full - cost of alumina production is around 2850 yuan/ton, with regional differences. The near - far month contract prices show a Contango structure [22] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of alumina in China increased last week, with an increase in the warehouse and factory inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and a decrease in port inventories [15] - **Investment strategy**: Due to the expected loose supply - demand but limited price decline space, investors are advised to short at high prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] 2. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: The theoretical weighted average full - cost is about 16150 yuan/ton. Domestic production may increase in October due to new projects, and imports may also rise with the commissioning of overseas projects [5][57] - **Inventory**: Social inventories, bonded area inventories, and inventories in major exchanges all decreased last week [46] - **Investment strategy**: Considering tariff uncertainties, Fed policies, and production trends, investors are advised to go long on dips and pay attention to support and resistance levels for both SHFE and LME aluminum [5] 3. Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - side factors**: Overseas waste aluminum exports to China may decline, but domestic waste aluminum production may increase. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may decrease in October [6][83] - **Cost and profit**: The full - cost of primary and secondary aluminum alloys is 20800 yuan/ton and 20500 yuan/ton respectively, with different profit and capacity utilization trends [6] - **Inventory**: Social inventories and raw material and finished - product inventories of recycled aluminum decreased last week [84][86] - **Investment strategy**: Given tariff uncertainties and supply - demand trends, investors are advised to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys at low prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] 4. Basis and Spread Analysis - **Alumina**: The basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and the spread is negative. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) spread is positive and (3 - 15) is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [40][43] - **Aluminum Alloys**: The casting aluminum alloy basis is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread is negative. Investors are recommended to short the basis at high prices on a short - term and light - position basis. The spread between electrolytic aluminum and casting aluminum alloy futures is positive, and investors are advised to go long on the spread at low prices [67][70]

Core Insights - The article discusses the production trends and forecasts for China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) industry, highlighting a slight decline in production for 2025 while showing overall growth in the first eight months of 2025 [1]. Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production is projected to be 3.8 million tons in August 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) reached 30.138 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 2.2% compared to the previous year [1]. Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Dongyangguang (600673), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), and Minfa Aluminum (002578) [1]. Research Report - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "2025-2031 Development Strategy and Investment Opportunity Forecast Report for China's Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum) Industry," indicating a focus on strategic planning and investment opportunities within the sector [1].

Group 1 - Canada has decided to reduce tariffs on certain steel and aluminum products imported from China and the U.S. to alleviate domestic pressure amid trade disputes [1][2] - The Canadian government has issued a new exemption measure aimed at protecting workers and families from retaliatory measures, particularly in downstream industries [2] - The exemption applies to specific steel and aluminum products that Canada does not produce, which are essential for public health, national security, manufacturing, agriculture, and food [1][2] Group 2 - The Canadian government previously imposed tariffs on a range of steel and aluminum products from the U.S. and China as a retaliatory measure, following similar actions from the U.S. [2] - China has responded to Canada's tariffs by initiating anti-dumping investigations and imposing tariffs on Canadian canola, canola oil, seafood, and pork, increasing pressure on the Canadian agricultural sector [2] - There is growing pessimism regarding Canada's economic outlook, with over half of Canadians believing the economy will weaken in the next six months, largely due to the ongoing trade conflicts [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-22 氧化铝价格或已进入筑底阶段 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20970元/吨，较上一交易日变化40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20850元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-110元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20870元/吨，较上一交易日变化50元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化15元/吨至-85元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-21日沪铝主力合约开于20900元/吨，收于20965元/吨，较上一交易日变化35元/吨，最 高价达21005元/吨，最低价达到20830元/吨。全天交易日成交108173手，全天交易日持仓234936手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.2万吨，仓单库存69397 吨，较上一交易日变化-550吨，LME铝库存484125吨，较上一交易日变化-3000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-21SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2865元/吨，山东价格录得2830元/吨，河南价格录得 2885元/吨，广西价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month [1]. - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, and the daily impact on output during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the import volume of bauxite was 15.88 million tons, a 13.2% decrease from the previous period and a 37.5% increase year - on - year. The delivery volume from Guinea decreased by 14.9% to 10.49 million tons in September due to the impact of the rainy season on mining and shipping in July and August [2]. - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises was stable at 68%, but due to the off - season expectation and Trump's tariff, the procurement was cautious, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry was 64%, and it may continue to be weak and stable in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 53.5%, and it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term [2]. - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [2]. Market Outlook - The finished products are expected to operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent fluctuations in alumina futures have been influenced by negative factors, with main contract prices hovering around 2750 CNY/ton [1] - China's bauxite production in September was 4.8821 million tons, down 2.32% year-on-year, with supply tight due to ongoing rainy season impacts in Shanxi and Henan [1] - Domestic bauxite imports in September reached 15.8806 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.17% but a year-on-year increase of 38.26% [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In September, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.52% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - As of October 17, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11.462 million tons, with operational capacity at 9.715 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in September was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% [4] Group 3: Pricing and Inventory - Domestic alumina total inventory reached 4.639 million tons as of October 10, with a weekly increase of 63,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 721,000 tons [2] - The FOB alumina price from Western Australia was reported at 323 USD/ton as of October 16, down 15% from the July peak [3] - The domestic alumina market is expected to experience price stabilization due to high absolute inventory levels and reduced profit margins for alumina plants [1][2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The alumina market is anticipated to face oversupply pressure, with potential large-scale production cuts expected in November [6] - The overall economic environment in China is stable, with expectations of enhanced resilience due to policy support [6] - The alumina futures market is projected to experience a bottoming-out trend, with a support level around 2700 CNY/ton [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the progress of the share conversion related to the non-public issuance of exchangeable bonds by the controlling shareholder, Jinlong Energy, and the resulting changes in shareholding percentages [2][3]. Group 1: Share Conversion Details - Jinlong Energy's first phase of exchangeable bonds (24 Jinlong EB01) entered the conversion period on June 3, 2025, and the second phase (24 Jinlong EB02) on June 30, 2025 [2]. - From July 21 to September 5, 2025, 593,741 shares were converted from the first phase, reducing Jinlong Energy's shareholding to 41.9997% [3]. - From September 11 to October 20, 2025, a total of 47,172,054 shares were converted, which included 7,380,404 shares from the first phase and 39,791,650 shares from the second phase, bringing Jinlong Energy's shareholding down to 40.99% [3]. Group 2: Implications of Shareholding Changes - The changes in shareholding do not result in a change of control for the company [4]. - The conversion of the exchangeable bonds is subject to uncertainty regarding whether bondholders will choose to convert and the specific number of shares converted [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. announced a profit distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 3.20 RMB per 10 shares for all shareholders [2] - The record date for the distribution of rights is set for October 27, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is October 28, 2025 [2]

姚晓园（资料图） 来源： 贵州省纪委监委 政事儿 据贵州省纪委监委派驻省国资委纪检监察组、遵义市纪委监委10月21日消息： 原贵州成黔企 业（集团）有限公司党委委员、董事、副总经理姚晓园 涉嫌严重违纪违法，目前正接受贵州 省纪委监委派驻省国资委纪检监察组纪律审查和遵义市监委监察调查。 公开信息显示， 姚晓园曾任 贵州省建筑设计研究院有限责任公司副总经理等职，2019年任 贵州成黔企业(集团)有限公司党委委员、副总经理。 贵州成黔企业（集团）有限公司（简称成黔集团）原属贵州省管国有大二型企业，主责主业包 括铝及铝产品采选、加工、销售等。今年8月， 贵州省人民政府决定： 组建贵州铝业集团有 限公司董事会、经理层班子， 撤销贵州成黔企业（集团）有限公司董事会、经理层班子。 刚刚！黄金、白 银，直线大跌！ ...

格隆汇10月21日丨云铝股份(000807.SZ)发布2025年半年度权益分派实施公告，公司股东大会审议通过 的2025年中期利润分配方案为：以公司现有总股本34.68亿股为基数，向全体股东每股派发现金红利人 民币0.32元（含税），共派发现金红利人民币11.10亿元（含税）,占公司2025 年半年度合并报表归属于 上市公司股东的净利润的比例约为40.10%。本次分配不进行资本公积金转增股本，不送红股。 本次权益分派股权登记日为：2025年10月27日；除权除息日为：2025年10月28日。 ...