Group 1 - The core issue is the significant portion of overseas investors' assets in the US that remain unhedged against currency fluctuations, leading to structural problems that cannot be ignored [1][3] - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciated approximately 10% against the US Dollar (USD) on May 2 and May 5, with the latter date marking the highest increase in 37 years, driven by speculation that Taiwan agreed to currency appreciation in US trade negotiations [2] - Concerns about the "New Taiwan Dollar shock" have made many investors skeptical about the return of previously flowing overseas investment back to the US, despite a recent trade agreement between the US and the UK [1][3] Group 2 - The CIO of a New York-based macro hedge fund noted that investors who had not hedged against currency risks began to sell their US assets or engage in hedging transactions due to the sudden market expectations of USD depreciation and TWD appreciation [2] - High levels of investment in US assets from overseas regions, including Taiwan, have been observed over the past decade, but many of these investments have not been hedged against currency risks due to the recent trend of USD appreciation [2][3] - Concerns over unpredictable trade policies from the Trump administration are causing unease among overseas investors, which may lead to a shift of funds from the US to other countries, potentially contributing to a weaker USD [3]

"宏观投资的关键点之一：政策不一定要成功，只要它足够激进，市场就会剧烈反应，而那正是投资机 会所在。" "你必须相信，任何事情都有可能发生。你永远不知道变化什么时候会来，但你得随时准备好去应对。" "很多人喜欢填字游戏、打桥牌，但对我来说，投资就是最好的智力游戏。" "投资的本质：只做最有把握的交易。" "我是一个谨慎的乐观主义者 。" "乔治 · 索罗斯的世界观与众不同，他天生就是一个市场捕猎者。但我认为，他做过最伟大的投资，就 是发现了斯坦 · 德鲁肯米勒。" "人生中真正重要的，是那些一直在你身边的人：是他们在你低谷时拉你一把，在你得意时提醒你别 飘。" 这是去年 10 月现任美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（ Scott Bessent ）在美国大选结果出来之前的一场 对话。时隔半年多回头看，还是很有意思。 过去三个多月，围绕特朗普政府新一轮关税政策的争议持续发酵，市场波动剧烈，贸易预期反复，身为 财长的贝森特一度存在感有限。但就像摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙对他的评价，"是个有分寸的人"。 在刚刚举行的中美经贸会谈中，作为美方代表的贝森特，显示了在核心决策圈的份量。 斯科特 · 贝森特在任职财长之前，是 ...

Group 1 - The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index (MXAPJ) has fully recovered from its early-year decline and is approaching year-to-date highs, driven by increased trade agreement news, easing pressure indicators, a weaker dollar, and signs of tentative risk-taking in portfolio flows [1][4][7] - Goldman Sachs has updated its earnings growth forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region, projecting 7% and 8% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to market expectations of 10% and 11% [1][13] - The market appears overly optimistic, with April's performance exceeding macro model predictions, and regional valuations have returned to moderate levels, aligning with Goldman Sachs' top-down P/E model estimates [1][16] Group 2 - Several factors explain the stock market rebound, including rising expectations for trade agreements, easing pressure indicators, a weaker dollar, and renewed foreign investment flows into emerging Asian markets [7][11] - Goldman Sachs maintains a preference for Chinese mainland and defensive sector allocations, overweighting China (favoring A-shares) and Japan while underweighting Australia and Taiwan [20][26] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' earnings outlook remains bleak, with downward risks highlighted by trade disruptions and weak survey data indicating potential softening in U.S. and global demand [13][14] - The market's pricing seems overly optimistic, especially given the generally weak earnings growth backdrop, with various indicators showing that the region's expected P/E ratios have returned to average levels [16][17] Group 4 - Short-term consolidation is expected, with a projected -4% return over the next three months and a +4% return over the next twelve months, based on updated earnings expectations and a target P/E of 13.3x [17][30] - Scenario analysis indicates a potential upside of 6 percentage points and a downside risk of 23 percentage points compared to Goldman Sachs' baseline return forecast [20][22] Group 5 - Key themes include resilience in challenging macro environments, support from Chinese policies, sectors benefiting from artificial intelligence, and shareholder returns [31][32] - Stocks that may benefit from a weaker dollar have been identified, including companies in the travel, construction, and consumer goods sectors [36][37]

高盛最新警告称，美国股市面临近20%的下跌风险，经济衰退对股市来说是一个巨大的风险。 自4月7日盘中低点以来，标普500指数已上涨约18%。如果接下来几天继续上涨，市场有望再次进入技 术性牛市区间。美股大幅反弹的背后，是交易员们认为，一个月前对特朗普贸易战潜在破坏的反应过于 激烈。特朗普对等关税计划的90天暂停显著缓解了市场担忧。 然而，高盛的经济学家们仍然持谨慎态度： 高盛为何谨慎？ Hatzius重申， 他预计未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性为45%。他强调，"衰退风险非常显著"。 Hatzius承认，近期数据好坏参半，情绪调查等软数据疲软，而硬数据如最新的非农就业数据表现较 好。他解释称，这种差异可以理解，因为历史上硬数据通常有60天左右的滞后期。而这一次，滞后可能 更长，因为很多贸易活动被提前进行以避免关税。 Hatzius还指出，如果美联储在观察通胀是暂时冲击还是持续压力的过程中被动等待，等到劳动力市场 开始恶化时才采取行动， 衰退一旦发生，可能会迫使美联储从当前水平下调利率多达200个基点。 Oppenheimer则表示，近期美国股市强劲反弹主要是因为投资者对特朗普暂缓实施关税感到宽慰，企业 财报 ...

标普500指数自4月低点已反弹18%，眼看就要进入技术性牛市。 高盛交易员指出市场经历了一场轮回：年初的乐观情绪在三四月被恐慌取代，但如今股指又 回到了原点。这轮过山车行情中，真正的赢家只有散户——他们成了唯一的"逢低买入"主力 军。 但高盛发出 警告， 美国经济衰退风险正在逼近。而 衰退一旦发生，可能会迫使美联储从当 前水平下调利率多达200个基点。 从短期来看，美股仍面临"下行风险不对称"的局面。 接下来如何进行投资布局对冲风险？ 每一个细微的市场信息都能成为决胜的关键！ 除了必须要看的美股研究社外， 这几个硬核账号也可以赶紧关注起来： 老徐聊海外 十年美股期权玩家，从财报套利到组合风控，只讲能落地的实战策略： 各类套利、波动率交易等策 略拆解，期权链深度分析，以及美股中线交易。 每周实盘复盘 + 干货输出，适合想系统学美股和期 权的投资者。 周期雪爷 点击名片关注啦 对于短线情绪流和主升感兴趣，想精准踏准柿场节奏的可以关注"周期雪爷"。一位职业女选手，擅长情 绪和趋势周期。对大A短线和主升方面有一定深入研究。 价投老鬼 关注价值投资的朋友可以关注。不追涨杀跌，专注企业价值与长期福利。作者曾亲历多次财富大 ...

Core Insights - The China-Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) Expo serves as a significant bridge for deepening economic and trade cooperation between China and CEECs, with the fourth edition scheduled from May 22 to 25 in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province [1] - Since the launch of the cooperation mechanism in 2012, bilateral trade has shown healthy growth, with an average annual increase of 8.8% in trade and 7.4% in imports from CEECs, both exceeding China's overall trade growth [1] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume is projected to reach $142.3 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [1] - Chinese investments in CEECs have surpassed $24 billion, with a strong interest from Chinese companies in electric vehicles and battery sectors, highlighting new investment cooperation opportunities [1] Group 1 - The CEEC Expo will feature an exhibition area of 20,000 square meters, with over 400 exhibitors showcasing more than 8,000 unique CEEC products, setting new records for exhibition space, number of exhibitors, and product variety [2] - The event is expected to attract 15,000 professional visitors, including over 3,000 foreign buyers, indicating a significant international interest [2] - The participation of exhibitors from nine additional countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, marks an expansion beyond CEECs, enhancing the expo's international influence [2] Group 2 - Ningbo, as the host city and the first China-CEEC economic and trade cooperation demonstration zone, aims to leverage its advantages to attract investments and talent, promoting high-end equipment and technology projects [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to utilize the multilateral framework of China-CEEC cooperation to enhance communication and collaboration in economic growth, import expansion, and digital and green investment [3]

高盛最新警告称，美国股市面临近20%的下跌风险，经济衰退对股市来说是一个巨大的风险。 自4月7日盘中低点以来，标普500指数已上涨约18%。如果接下来几天继续上涨，市场有望再次进入技 术性牛市区间。美股大幅反弹的背后，是交易员们认为，一个月前对特朗普贸易战潜在破坏的反应过于 激烈。特朗普对等关税计划的90天暂停显著缓解了市场担忧。 然而，高盛的经济学家们仍然持谨慎态度： 高盛首席政治经济学家Alec Phillips警告称，特朗普关于英美贸易协议的言论表明，许多国家最终将面 临比特朗普第二任期前更高的关税。 在周四发布的一期播客《站在又一次下跌的边缘？》中，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius和首席全球股票 策略师Peter Oppenheimer也均表现出明显的谨慎。 高盛宏观交易员Bobby Molavi指出，在本轮下跌之际唯一实质性的买家是散户。 高盛为何谨慎？ Hatzius重申，他预计未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性为45%。他强调，"衰退风险非常显著"。 Hatzius承认，近期数据好坏参半，情绪调查等软数据疲软，而硬数据如最新的非农就业数据表现较 好。他解释称，这种差异可以理解，因为历史上硬数 ...

美联储理事鲍曼接触 高盛的工作人员。 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the deepening of the strategic partnership between China and Russia, highlighting the signing of a joint statement to enhance cooperation and mutual trust [2][3][4] - Xi Jinping's visit marks the 11th time he has visited Russia, underscoring the importance of the bilateral relationship over the past decade amid global changes [2][5] - Both leaders expressed a commitment to maintaining close communication and collaboration to address international challenges and promote global governance [5][6] Group 2 - The historical context of the China-Russia relationship is highlighted, referencing their joint efforts during World War II and the foundation of their current partnership [3][4] - The two countries aim to enhance practical cooperation across various fields, with a focus on mutual benefits and economic growth [3][4] - Both nations are committed to upholding international order and promoting a multipolar world, emphasizing the importance of multilateralism [4][5] Group 3 - The discussion included the Ukraine crisis, with China advocating for a comprehensive and sustainable global security perspective [6] - Russia appreciates China's objective stance on the Ukraine issue and expresses willingness to engage in peace talks without preconditions [6] Group 4 - The trade relationship between China and Russia is characterized by significant growth, with both countries aiming to further enhance their economic ties [3][4] - The importance of maintaining a stable and cooperative international environment is reiterated, with both leaders emphasizing their roles in global governance [4][5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing cyclical recession risks and suggests investors hedge through oil put options and gold long positions [1] - Goldman Sachs identifies four tactical key factors, including underestimated recession risks, with a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months due to high policy uncertainty and weak consumer expectations [1][3] - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, and high-yield bond spreads may reach 788 basis points [2][1] Group 2 - Traditional hedging strategies may fail to protect against stock market risks, as recent correlations indicate concerns over U.S. policy impacts on governance and institutional credibility [3] - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly due to concerns over U.S. governance and aggressive Fed rate cuts, with potential prices reaching $3880 per ounce in a recession [4] - The current net long position in COMEX gold is at a 58% percentile since 2014, making it an attractive time to establish long positions [4] Group 3 - Oil price forecasts suggest Brent crude averaging $63 in 2025, with potential declines in a recession scenario, estimating prices could drop to below $40 per barrel [5] - Investors are advised to sell June 2026 Brent crude oil call options and buy put options to hedge against potential price declines [5] Group 4 - Four structural trends are enhancing the long-term attractiveness of gold and copper, including dollar asset diversification, increased defense spending, energy supply de-risking, and reduced copper investment [7][11] - The diversification of official reserves and a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases since 2022 have driven gold prices up by 76% [8][10] - Increased defense spending in Europe is expected to support industrial metal demand, with a projected rise in defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP [11] Group 5 - The electrification trend is anticipated to boost global copper demand growth rates by approximately 2 percentage points from 2024 to 2030 [13] - Copper prices are projected to decline to $8300 per ton in Q3 2025 due to global GDP weakness, but could rebound to $10600 per ton by the end of 2026 if no recession occurs [15][17]