Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability due to product structure upgrades and a successful integration of pulp and paper operations. The FY2025 results met expectations, with revenue of 63.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 177.3% [5][7] - The company has a strong production capacity of over 20 million tons in paper manufacturing, which provides significant scale advantages and upward elasticity in performance [7] - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 3.117 billion RMB for FY2026 and 4.425 billion RMB for FY2028, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 76.4% and 17.7% respectively [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2024 revenue is projected at 59.496 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, while FY2025 revenue is expected to reach 63.241 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% increase. The net profit for FY2025 is forecasted at 1.767 billion RMB, a 135% increase year-on-year [6][7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.16 RMB in FY2024 to 0.38 RMB in FY2025, with a net asset return rate increasing from 1.66% to 3.74% [6][7] - The company’s market-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 32.7 in FY2024 to 13.9 in FY2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [6][7] Product and Market Dynamics - The company has diversified its product offerings, increasing the production capacity of cultural paper and white card paper, which are expected to account for 12% of total production capacity by FY2026 [7] - The company has seen a significant increase in gross profit per ton of paper, with FY2025 figures showing a gross profit of 337 RMB per ton, up from previous years [7] - The market dynamics for boxboard and corrugated paper are improving, with expected demand growth and a reduction in supply pressure from imports, which will benefit the company's performance [7]

截至发稿，仙鹤股份市值为166亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——5年增长33倍，这类新险种卖爆了，身边很多人都需要，30多家险企蜂拥而 入⋯⋯ （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，仙鹤股份（SH 603733，收盘价：23.55元）9月26日晚间发布公告称，本次向特定对象发 行的方案及相关事项已经2025年9月26日召开的公司第四届董事会第三次会议审议通过。本次向特定对 象发行A股股票的发行对象为不超过35名特定投资者（含本数），其中，本次发行的股票数量按照募集 资金总额除以发行价格确定，同时本次发行股票数量不超过本次向特定对象发行前公司总股本1的 30%，即本次发行不超过约2.12亿股，最终发行数量上限以中国证监会同意注册的发行数量上限为准。 发行价格不低于定价基准日前20个交易日公司股票交易均价的80%。本次发行拟募集不超过30亿元，募 集资金用于以下用途：广西三江口新区高性能纸基新材料项目二期工程项目，总投资约54.04亿元，拟 投入募集资金21亿元；补充流动资金项目，总投资9亿元，拟投入募集资金9亿元。 2024年1至12月份，仙鹤股份的营业收入构成为：造纸行业占比96.05%，其他业务占比3. ...

Group 1 - The company, Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733.SH), announced a plan to issue A-shares to specific investors, aiming to raise a total of no more than 3 billion yuan, including the principal amount [1] - The net proceeds from this fundraising, after deducting issuance costs, will be used for the second phase of the high-performance paper-based new materials project in the Sanjiangkou New Area of Guangxi and to supplement working capital [1]

Exchange Rate Projections - Under the baseline scenario, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to approach 7.0 by the end of the year[1] - In an optimistic scenario, with extraordinary counter-cyclical policies, the new equilibrium for USD/CNY could be around 6.7[1] Monetary Policy Implications - A potential interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points (BP) by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Q4 may not delay RMB appreciation but could intensify it[1] - The current market does not fully anticipate a rate cut, meaning the existing exchange rate does not factor in this possibility[1] Economic Context - The recent RMB appreciation is not driven by strong economic fundamentals but rather by expectations and a self-fulfilling cycle of currency appreciation[1][10] - The Chinese government's debt cost is currently lower than economic growth rates, supporting fiscal expansion and the exchange rate[1] Investment Insights - RMB appreciation is expected to benefit Chinese stocks, with historical data showing that a 1% appreciation typically leads to a 2.73% increase in A-shares and a 4.52% increase in Hong Kong stocks[6] - The current RMB appreciation cycle has seen A-shares rise by an average of 8.31% and Hong Kong stocks by 10.52% since April 8, 2025[6] Risks and Considerations - Risks include misinterpretation of policy, unexpected monetary policy actions, and potential increases in U.S. tariffs[50]

证券之星消息，9月26日造纸板块较上一交易日下跌0.09%，青山纸业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3828.11，下跌0.65%。深证成指报收于13209.0，下跌1.76%。造纸板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603863 | 松炀资源 | 22.70 | 4.42% | 23.22万 | 5.35 乙 | | 600356 | 恒丰纸业 | 9.78 | 4.15% | 10.09万 | 9786.20万 | | 002078 | 太阳纸业 | 14.54 | 2.68% | 20.15万 | 2.91亿 | | 600966 | 博汇纸业 | 4.93 | 2.07% | 1 21.06万 | 1.06亿 | | 600235 | 民丰特纸 | 7.02 | 1.59% | 22.76万 | 1.62亿 | | 002012 | 凯恩股份 | 5.55 | 0.36% | 8.69万 | 4829.86万 | | 605007 | 五洲特纸 | 11.68 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [9][19]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2025 results that met expectations, with revenue of 63.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 177.3% [9]. - The integration of pulp and paper production and the diversification of paper types have led to notable improvements in profitability [9]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in raw materials, with a projected increase in self-produced pulp capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability further [9]. - The company’s product structure is gradually improving, with a focus on high-end products, which is anticipated to benefit from industry demand recovery [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2025 revenue is projected at 63.241 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% for FY2026 and 10% for FY2027 [8]. - The net profit for FY2025 is expected to reach 1.767 billion RMB, with significant growth projected for the following years, reaching 4.425 billion RMB by FY2028 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.38 RMB in FY2025 to 0.94 RMB in FY2028 [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 3.74% in FY2025 to 7.64% in FY2028 [8].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit estimates for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689) for FY26 and FY27 by 11% and 15% to 2.75 billion and 2.88 billion HKD respectively, maintaining an outperform rating and increasing the target price by 17% to 7 HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY25, the company achieved revenue of 63.241 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.767 billion HKD, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In the second half of FY25, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.297 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, primarily due to the benefits from self-produced pulp and reduced coal prices [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - The company reported total sales of 21.5 million tons for FY25, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with significant contributions from the production of corrugated paper, white card paper, and cultural paper [2] - The company has already launched 1.2 million tons of white card paper, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp in the first half of FY26, with plans for additional production [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits per ton of paper at 59 HKD and 151 HKD for the first and second halves of FY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising prices of recycled paper [3] - The company anticipates a slight recovery in profits for corrugated paper from July to September, despite potential increases in costs due to rising coal and recycled paper prices [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure for FY25 was 14.8 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion HKD, which is higher than previous guidance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 中证A500红利低波动指数 and its corresponding ETF have shown positive performance, with significant liquidity and low tracking error, indicating potential investment opportunities in low-volatility dividend stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of September 26, 2025, the 中证A500红利低波动指数 increased by 0.43%, with notable gains from stocks such as 太阳纸业 (3.04%) and 宝钢股份 (2.80%) [1]. - The 中证A500红利低波ETF rose by 0.41%, with a latest price of 0.98 yuan [1]. - The ETF's average daily trading volume over the past year was 37.94 million yuan, ranking it first among comparable funds [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The 中证A500红利低波ETF experienced a net outflow of 4.86 million yuan recently, but had a total inflow of 28.76 million yuan over the last 10 trading days [1]. - The ETF's maximum drawdown since inception is 3.42%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.23% [1]. Group 3: Tracking Accuracy and Valuation - The ETF has the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds, with a tracking error of 0.149% year-to-date [2]. - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the index is 9.76, indicating it is undervalued compared to historical levels, being below 88.71% of the time over the past year [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - The 中证A500红利低波动指数 consists of 50 stocks selected for their high dividend yield and low volatility, with the top ten holdings accounting for 31.13% of the index [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks include major banks and companies such as 农业银行 (1.45%) and 格力电器 (1.13%) [4].

Core Points - China announced a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) at the UN Climate Change Summit, aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption [1][3] - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering more than 2,200 key emission units in the power sector, making it the largest carbon market globally [3][4] - The carbon market's trading volume reached nearly 700 million tons with a transaction value of approximately 48 billion RMB by the end of August 2024, marking a record high since its inception [4][6] Carbon Market Development - The carbon market has seen significant growth, with a 44% increase in daily average transaction volume in 2024 compared to the previous compliance cycle, and a total transaction value of 18 billion RMB [6][4] - The market aims to expand its coverage to include major industrial sectors by 2027, with a focus on implementing total quota control for stable emission sectors [6][7] - New industries, including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, will be included in the carbon market by 2025, increasing the controlled greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons [10][9] Future Expectations - The Chinese government plans to enhance the carbon market's mechanisms and expand its coverage to additional sectors such as aviation, petrochemicals, and paper manufacturing [9][10] - There is an emphasis on international cooperation and the establishment of cross-border carbon trading systems, with expectations for the upcoming COP30 to facilitate global climate governance [13][15] - The carbon market is seen as a critical tool for achieving carbon neutrality and is expected to play a significant role in the global carbon pricing landscape [6][14]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings benefits from a rapidly growing internal pulp supply, leading to significant cost advantages and improved profitability per ton of paper [1] Financial Performance - For the second half of the fiscal year ending June 30, the profit per ton of paper improved to 127 HKD, a substantial increase from 31 HKD in the first half and 53 HKD in the second half of the fiscal year 2024 [1] - The management anticipates stable average prices and continued improvement in profit per ton of paper for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Valuation and Recommendations - Despite improved visibility, the fiscal year 2026 price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is projected at 10 times, close to the high end of the average over the past decade [1] - Daiwa has raised the earnings per share estimates for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 22% to 37% and increased the target price from 5 HKD to 5.7 HKD, while maintaining a "Hold" rating based on fair value considerations [1]