（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵公司有生产造纸所需的化工辅料吗？ 山鹰国际（600567.SH）1月21日在投资者互动平台表示，公司没有相关业务。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920394 | 民士达 | 53.05 | -6.11% | 3.31万 | 1.79亿 | | 600963 | 岳阳林纸 | 4.68 | -2.09% | 40.86万 | 1.91亿 | | 600433 | 起家同新 | 3.42 | -1.44% | 34.51万 | 1.18亿 | | 000488 | ST晨鸣 | 2.17 | -1.36% | 13.58万 | 2961.21万 | | 600567 | 山鹰国际 | 1.66 | -1.19% | 106.64万 | 1.78亿 | | 605007 | 五洲特纸 | 13.24 | -0.75% | 4.31万 | 5689.59万 | | 600966 | 博汇纸业 | 6.98 | -0.71% | 21.42万 | 1.48亿 | | 603733 | 仙鹤股份 | 23.58 | -0.34% | 3.08万 | 7267.55万 | | 600103 | 青山纸业 ...

"十五五"的降碳路径与机遇解读 20260120 摘要 中国正构建碳排放管控体系，核心包括配额、绿证（Green Certificate）和中国核证自愿减排量（CCER）三个维度，旨在约束碳 排放企业，促进绿电发展，并补偿降碳项目，推动能源结构转型。 配额管理已将钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼等行业纳入，计划 2027 年底前覆盖 化工、焦运、造纸等主要排放行业。基准值设定低于平衡值，形成降碳 压力，政府会根据实际情况调整基准值。 碳价下行是政府给予企业适应政策的缓冲，电力行业配额核发参考低于 平衡值的基准值，形成外部购买需求，每年降碳压力为-0.5%。数据不 全及基数调整也影响数据表现。 未来绿证大概率将标注对应降碳量，与市场机制衔接，企业可通过购买 绿证抵扣。当前绿证价格较低因政策意见稿规定两年有效期，后续政策 推进及市场勾稽关系明确后，价格将相互锚定。 配额扩容计划逐步推进，2025 年已扩展至钢铁、水泥及铝冶炼，未来 将纳入化工、石化、民航及造纸等。制定具体措施时将充分考虑各领域 特点及实际情况，确保政策执行效果最大化。 Q&A 2026 年国家在降碳方面的重点工作有哪些？ 2026 年国家在降碳方面主要抓好四个 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced a "global price surge" in the past month, with major companies like BASF, Dow, and Huntsman implementing price increases across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East [1][1][1] - Significant price increases have been noted for certain chemical products, with propylene oxide prices rising by 7.9% week-over-week [2][2][2] Companies Mentioned - Companies involved in the chemical sector include: - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber - Cangzhou Dahua - Weiyuan Co. - Shandong Heda - Hongbaoli - Hongbai New Materials - Red Wall Co. - Zhongyida - Zanyu Technology - China National Chemical - Jiangtian Chemical - Meibang Technology [2][2][2] Core Insights and Arguments - The recent price increases in the chemical market are attributed to a combination of supply chain pressures and increased demand for chemical products globally [1][1][1] - The government has introduced new policies to support urban renewal and stimulate the economy, which may further impact the demand for chemical products [2][2][2] Additional Important Information - The National Energy Administration reported that national electricity load has reached a historical winter high, exceeding 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time, indicating strong energy demand [2][2][2] - The investment in new power systems is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 40% increase in investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][2][2] - The chemical industry is likely to benefit from these macroeconomic trends, as increased urban development and energy demands will drive further consumption of chemical products [1][1][1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-21 屠企采购放慢，生猪期现回落 油脂：出口预期带动棕榈油反弹 蛋白粕：终端备货点价，双粕低位反弹 玉米/淀粉：玉米区间震荡 生猪：屠企采购放慢，生猪期现回落 天然橡胶：盘面维持宽幅震荡 合成橡胶：回调整理，盘面收跌 棉花：延续调整，关注支撑 白糖：糖价承压收跌 纸浆：阔叶持续转弱，基本面隐忧加大 双胶纸：无大矛盾，低位震荡 原木：盘面延续跌势，估值进入深水区 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：屠企采购放慢，⽣猪期现回落 主要逻辑：（1）供应：短期，1月上旬出栏进度偏慢，部分区域二次育肥 重新入场，二育栏舍利用率提高。后续关注月底出栏节奏，因春节后屠宰 开工率低，可能会有部分2月的生猪提前在1月底销售。中期，2025年上半 年全国能繁母猪存栏量保持高位，2025年10月及之前仔猪出生量环比增 加，按照产能兑现节奏看，供应过剩的压力至少持续至2026年4月。长 期，2025年三季度能繁母猪产能开始出现去化，农业部样本7~12月母猪存 栏下降，12月全国母猪存栏降至3961万头。2025年12月，钢联样本点能繁 母猪继续减少，环比-0 ...

（来源：中信建投财富管理） 进入2026年，人民币汇率持续走强，离岸人民币对美元汇率一度升破6.96，创下近年来新高。这一趋势并非短期波动， 而是国内外多重因素共同作用的结果。对于投资者来说，理解人民币升值背后的多重原因，以及其对不同行业和企业带 来的变化和影响，或成为当下影响投资决策和资产配置策略的关键。 资料来源：Wind；历史不代表未来，市场有风险，投资需谨慎 人民币升值的驱动因素 从内部来看，中国经济的含金量和高质量发展为人民币升值奠定了坚实的基础。尽管外部环境复杂而多变，中国经济在 2025年展现出超预期的韧性，制造业转型升级加速，以新能源汽车、人工智能为代表的战略性新兴产业蓬勃发展，中国 产品的全球竞争力不断增强。同时，2025年的前11个月,中国货物贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元大关，达到1.076万亿美 元，同比增长21.7%。经济基本面的持续改善以及强劲的出口表现，增强了国内外市场对中国资产的长期信心，为人民 币升值提供了核心驱动力。 从外部来看，美元指数的走势对人民币兑美元汇率产生重要影响。美联储开启降息周期，美元持续走弱，去年全年跌幅 超9%，美元利差的相对优势大幅下降。同时，美国高企的债务 ...

本报讯 （记者吴奕萱）1月20日，民丰特种纸股份有限公司（以下简称"民丰特纸"）发布2025年年度业 绩预告，该公司预计实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润1570万元左右，同比减少约78%；归属于母公司 所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约600万元，同比减少约92%。 （编辑 何帆） 另外，2025年民丰特纸主导产品市场竞争激烈，导致该公司主导产品售价同比下降，也对民丰特纸年度 业绩造成了一定的不利影响。 公告显示，民丰特纸业绩预减的主要原因是受主营业务影响。具体来看，民丰特纸PM20、PM22纸机分 别于2024年5月底和8月底停止运行，2025年该两台纸机未达产量。同时，该公司南湖厂区于6月底全面 停产，海盐厂区一期项目和二期项目产能尚处于爬坡阶段，导致公司整体产销量同比减少，造成本期营 业收入及营业利润同比下降。 ...

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a slight increase of 0.48% on January 20, with Bohui Paper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed varied performance, with Bohui Paper closing at 7.03, up 3.69%, and Sun Paper closing at 15.81, up 2.40% [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 382 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 396 million yuan [2] - Individual stock performances varied, with Bohui Paper seeing a net inflow of 5.75 million yuan from major funds, while ST Morning saw a net inflow of 4.77 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed significant interest in stocks like ST Morning and Bohui Paper, with net inflows of 1.57 million yuan and 2.24 million yuan respectively [3]

方正中期期货 双胶纸整体需求仍承压 1月20日盘中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约呈现震荡走势，最低下探至4004.00元。截止发稿，胶版印刷纸 主力合约报4048.00元，跌幅0.20%。 胶版印刷纸期货主力小幅下跌0.20%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 根据卓创数据，双胶纸企业开工率继续上升，厂家库存下降，纸厂近期积极供应出版社订单，但现货波 动不大，前期有纸厂提价情况，目前尚未落地，成本端木浆涨势放缓，美金报价上调，而国内及期货均 高位回落，成本向上驱动减弱。短期需求有出版订单支撑，不过后期伴随需求减弱，双胶纸整体需求仍 承压，同时国内双胶纸总产能较高，产能利用率偏低，也很难给出较高的行业利润，进而限制价格上涨 高度，短期在盘面回落、现货持稳之下，基差扩大可能对前者形成支撑。 瑞达期货（002961）：预计双胶纸维持区间偏弱震荡 供应端，(20260109-0115)双胶纸产量20.3万吨，较上期减少0.1万吨，降幅0.5%，产能利用率52.0%，较 上期下降0.2%。库存端，本期双胶纸生产企业库存140.3万吨，环比增幅0.4%。下游消费将趋于平淡， 工厂生产变化不大。双胶纸产业库 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the theme of "cognitive differences, transformation imminent," highlighting the accelerated iteration of business models among light industry companies amid macroeconomic and trade fluctuations, suggesting a focus on identifying alpha opportunities in companies with high barriers and leading global capacity layouts [2][16] - The light industry index underperformed the market in 2025, with a return of +20.88%, trailing the CSI 300 by -0.31%. The performance was driven by companies undergoing transformation or restructuring, while only a few stocks, like Xiangxin Home, saw price increases driven by solid fundamentals [10][16] - For 2026, three investment themes are proposed: export alpha, steady growth, and low-level consumption. Recommended companies include Zhongxin Co., Xiangxin Home, and Mengbaihe for exports; Sun Paper and Jiu Long Paper for steady growth; and Gujia Home and Oppein for low-level consumption [2][16] 2025 Sector Review - The light industry sector underperformed the market, with packaging and personal care showing stable growth, while home furnishings and paper faced pressure, leading to a divergence in export performance [3][11] - The overall revenue growth for the light industry sector in Q3 2025 was -0.7%, with a significant decline in net profit attributed to the paper sector, while personal care and packaging showed positive growth [13][14] 2026 Investment Themes - **Export Alpha**: Focus on high-barrier export manufacturing companies that are transitioning from product export to capacity and brand export, benefiting from the recovery of the US real estate chain due to interest rate cuts [2][21] - **Steady Growth**: Emphasis on paper and packaging sectors, with expectations of price recovery in 2026 for paper products, recommending companies like Sun Paper and Yutong Technology [2][16] - **Low-Level Consumption**: Targeting home furnishings and stationery, with recommendations for companies like Gujia Home and Oppein, as the sector is expected to recover with improved consumer sentiment [2][16] Key Companies - Recommended companies for export include Zhongxin Co. and Mengbaihe, while for steady growth, Sun Paper and Jiu Long Paper are highlighted. In the low-level consumption category, Gujia Home and Oppein are suggested as potential investment opportunities [2][16]