Core Viewpoint - The company has resumed production at several facilities and is working to restore operations at others [1] Group 1: Production Status - As of December 1, the company confirmed that its Shouguang, Huanggang, Jilin, and Jiangxi Base II are operating normally [1] - The Jiangxi Base I and Zhanjiang Base are in the process of raw material preparation to expedite the resumption of production [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, roll screw, and glass are rated as "oscillating"; coal coke is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Financial: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds are "oscillating", with 10-year treasury bonds "rising"; Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are "oscillating" [3] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][4] - Light Industry: Logs are "oscillating at the bottom"; pulp, double-offset paper are "oscillating weakly" [4][6] - Oilseeds and Oils: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are "running in a range"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are "oscillating" [6] - Agricultural Products: Pigs are "oscillating strongly" [9] - Soft Commodities: Rubber, PX are "oscillating"; PTA is "oscillating"; MEG is "oscillating widely"; PR is "on the sidelines"; PF is "on the sidelines" [11] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with individual sectors showing weak, strong, or rebounding trends. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international economic situations [2][3][4] - The black industry is facing challenges such as over - supply and weak demand, and prices are likely to remain oscillating [2] - The financial market is short - term adjusted but remains optimistic in the medium - term, with high - tech industries continuing to grow [3] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices likely to oscillate strongly [3][4] - The light industry is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with prices oscillating at the bottom or weakly [4][6] - The oilseeds and oils market is affected by factors such as US biodiesel policies and South American weather, with prices running in a range or oscillating [6] - The agricultural products market, especially the pig market, is affected by factors such as supply and demand and slaughter rates, with prices oscillating strongly [9] - The soft commodities market is affected by factors such as weather and downstream demand, with prices oscillating [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons, and daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons. The supply - demand surplus is hard to reverse, and prices will oscillate at a high level [2] - Coal coke: Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the market is worried about supply resumption, and the coke enterprises started the first price cut. Supply concerns in the coking coal industry are intensifying, and prices will adjust weakly in the short - term [2] - Roll screw: Downstream demand is low, winter storage has not started, and prices will oscillate at the bottom. Whether steel prices can stop falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - Glass: Supply news is disturbing, and inventory has decreased. However, real - estate completion affects demand, and whether prices can rise depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short - term but remains optimistic in the medium - term. High - tech industries are growing. China's economic sentiment is generally stable [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market trend is slightly rebounding [3] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. It is supported by factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Short - term Fed policies and geopolitical situations affect prices [3][4] - Silver: Similar to gold, it is affected by Fed policies and economic data, and prices are likely to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments decreased, imports and arrivals are changing, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing is at a record high, but bio - diesel policies are uncertain. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory are high, and domestic oil supply is abundant. Prices are expected to run in a range [6] - Meal: US soybean supply is structurally tight, but global supply is loose. Domestic supply is abundant, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Pigs: The average trading weight fluctuates, demand has recovered, and slaughter rates are rising. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and settlement prices may decline slightly next week [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Affected by weather, production in some areas is low, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [11] - PX: Supply is strong, downstream demand is good, and prices will oscillate [11] - PTA: Cost is loose, short - term supply - demand is improving, and prices will follow cost fluctuations [11] - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and prices will oscillate with upward pressure [11] - PR: Cost is supported, but downstream follow - up is weak, and prices may rise with limited amplitude [11] - PF: Supply - demand is okay, and prices will oscillate without new news [11]

Core Viewpoint - Annie Co., Ltd. specializes in anti-counterfeiting traceability systems and comprehensive copyright services, as well as business information paper products, providing customized solutions based on customer needs [2][3] Business Overview - The company offers a full range of business information paper products, including thermal paper, carbonless paper, color inkjet printing paper, and double-sided paper, serving well-known clients such as Yum, Haidilao, JD.com, KFC, and Pizza Hut [2][3] - Annie Co., Ltd. has developed a comprehensive anti-counterfeiting traceability system over the past decade, with products covering various industries such as lubricants, daily chemicals, and beverages, serving clients like Tmall International, Castrol, RIO, Bosch, and Nike [2][3] Market Performance - In November, Annie Co., Ltd. experienced a strong market performance with a cumulative increase of 27.79%, closing at 9.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.4 billion yuan [4] - The company disclosed an abnormal stock trading announcement, indicating that its stock price had deviated by more than 20% over three consecutive trading days, but confirmed that its business operations remain stable without significant changes [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, Annie Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 301 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.06%, but recorded a net loss of 1.3871 million yuan, attributed to the amortization expenses of a newly established employee stock ownership plan [4] Shareholding Structure - The actual controllers of Annie Co., Ltd. are Lin Xuxi and Zhang Jie, who are married, with Lin holding 14.95% of the shares and Zhang holding 5.95% [5]

南方财经12月1日电，恒丰纸业(600356.SH)2025年11月29日公告，对其发行股份收购四川锦丰纸业股份 有限公司100%股权的重组方案进行了调整。 根据公告，本次交易价格由原定的26,805.62万元下调至25,414.23万元，调减幅度为5.19%。相应的，发 行股份数量也由原计划的32,491,659股减少至30,805,126股，占发行后总股本的比例从9.81%降至 9.35%。 ...

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

Group 1 - The company has signed a loan guarantee contract with a syndicate of banks to provide a joint liability guarantee for its subsidiary, Wuzhou Special Paper (Jiangxi), for a loan amount not exceeding 150,000 million yuan [2][12] - The collateral for the loan includes land located in the high-tech industrial park in Hukou County, ensuring that the company's daily operations remain stable and that the guarantee does not adversely affect the interests of the company or its shareholders, especially minority shareholders [2][7] - The total amount of external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries is 840,225.60 million yuan, which accounts for 237.94% of the company's latest audited net assets attributable to shareholders [8] Group 2 - The company has approved a guarantee limit of up to 7 billion yuan for the year 2025, which includes various forms of guarantees such as credit guarantees, mortgage guarantees, and performance guarantees [3] - The guarantee period for the loan contract is set to three years from the effective date of the guarantee contract, extending to three years after any debt extension or early maturity declaration by the lender [5][6] - The company maintains effective control over the operational risks and decisions of its wholly-owned subsidiary, ensuring that the guarantee is necessary and reasonable for supporting its normal production operations [7] Group 3 - The company will pay interest on its convertible bonds on December 8, 2025, with a coupon rate of 1.50% for the fourth year, resulting in a payment of 1.50 yuan per bond [23][18] - The convertible bonds were issued on December 8, 2021, with a total issuance amount of 670 million yuan and a maturity period of six years [19][15] - The initial conversion price for the bonds was set at 18.50 yuan per share, with the latest conversion price adjusted to 13.65 yuan per share [12][15]

近日，安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司（以下简称"林平发展"）回复了上交所第一轮审核问询函，涉及红筹搭建与拆除、业绩增速放缓或下滑风险、是否受 到环保行政处罚、客户集中度较低且逐年下降的原因与合理性、新增产能消化可行性等问题。 来源：公告 林平发展成立于2002年，是一家集废纸利用、热电联产、绿色造纸于一体的资源综合利用企业，主要从事包装用瓦楞纸、箱板纸产品的研发、生产和销售， 产品主要用于物流运输、工业品及消费品包装领域。该公司此次IPO拟募资12亿元，计划用于绿色环保智能制造新材料项目、生物基纤维绿色智能制造新材 料项目。 财报显示，2022年至2025年上半年，林平发展营收分别为28.79亿元、28.00亿元、24.85亿元、12.24亿元，净利润分别为1.54亿元、2.12亿元、1.53亿元、0.91 亿元。林平发展2024年营收、净利润"双降"，2025年上半年业绩增长乏力。 招股书显示，2024年，由于下游消费市场需求疲软，林平发展核心产品瓦楞纸、箱板纸销售均价同比分别下滑5.77%、7.31%。叠加自然灾害因素导致停产 影响，该公司瓦楞纸和箱板纸的销量同比下滑均超10%。 与此同时，林平发展递表前的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for stricter regulation and management of imported recycled paper pulp to prevent environmental risks and promote a green, safe, and high-quality development in the paper industry [3][4][8]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - Recent discussions among experts highlight the inadequacies in national standards for imported recycled paper pulp, particularly concerning the risks associated with "foreign waste" [3][4]. - The General Administration of Customs has issued new guidelines and requirements for the declaration of imported recycled paper pulp, aiming to enhance supervision and regulation [4][5]. - The approval of the revised national standard for recycled paper pulp is a significant step, with the Paper Industry Standardization Technical Committee responsible for its organization [5][10]. Group 2: Environmental and Safety Concerns - Experts have raised concerns about the dry processing method for producing recycled paper pulp, which lacks adequate purification processes and poses safety risks, including fire and explosion hazards [7][8]. - The current national standard (GB/T43393-2023) is criticized for its lack of mandatory constraints and insufficient specifications regarding biological safety and bacterial content in imported products [7][8]. - The absence of microbial testing indicators in the existing standards allows low-quality raw materials to enter the country, complicating customs regulation [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Consensus and Recommendations - The "Beijing Consensus" calls for strict enforcement of hard standards for imported recycled paper pulp, including prohibitions on rotten pulp and hazardous materials [8][9]. - The consensus advocates for the differentiation between dry and wet production methods in the revised national standards and suggests raising strength indicators to enhance quality control [8][9]. - Experts urge the paper industry to align with national carbon neutrality strategies and invest in green technology innovation [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - In 2024, China is projected to import approximately 4.14 million tons of recycled paper pulp, with dry processed pulp accounting for about 3.8% of domestic pulp supply [10]. - The anticipated increase in domestic pulp production capacity to over 3.5 million tons by 2026-2027 is expected to reduce reliance on imports [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus on the import of recycled paper pulp has led to coordinated efforts by various government departments to enhance regulatory standards and oversight, aiming to mitigate environmental risks and promote sustainable development in the paper industry [1][2]. Regulatory Developments - On October 9, the General Administration of Customs issued a notice regarding the declaration requirements for imported recycled paper pulp [1]. - On October 17, six departments jointly released guidelines to standardize the supervision of imported recycled paper pulp [1]. - The national standard revision plan for recycled paper pulp was approved on October 31, with the National Technical Committee for Paper Industry Standards responsible for the revision [1]. - A seminar on the national standard revision was held on November 14 to discuss the proposed changes [1]. Industry Challenges - The current national standards for imported recycled paper pulp are deemed inadequate, raising concerns about the risk of "foreign waste" entering the country [1][2]. - Since 2021, there have been multiple instances of customs discovering suspected solid waste being imported under the guise of recycled paper pulp [2]. Expert Insights - Experts highlighted the limitations of the dry processing method for recycled paper pulp, which fails to adequately remove contaminants and poses safety hazards [3]. - The absence of microbial testing standards in current regulations allows substandard materials to enter the market, complicating customs oversight [3]. Proposed Standards and Recommendations - The "Beijing Consensus" calls for strict enforcement of hard standards for imported recycled paper pulp, including limits on contamination and the prohibition of hazardous materials [4]. - Recommendations include specifying production methods (dry or wet) in the national standards and enhancing strength requirements to improve quality control [4]. - The consensus emphasizes the need for increased regulatory oversight and the establishment of a robust regulatory framework to protect ecological safety [4]. Industry Responsibility and Future Directions - The paper industry is urged to align with national "dual carbon" strategies and invest in green technology innovation [5]. - Companies are encouraged to adopt responsible practices, comply with laws and standards, and eliminate outdated and unsafe processing methods [5]. - The recent regulatory changes signal a strong governmental commitment to reinforcing ecological safety and promoting high-quality development in the paper industry [5].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 近期人民币汇率涨势明显，离岸人民币（CNH） 11月25日 报 7 .0 829 元 （单日涨 0. 3%），11月2 7日盘中最高升至7. 0653 ， 逼近 202 4年10月9 日高点。人民币近期 走强主要受内外因素共同推动，短期有望延续偏强 态势，对资本市场尤其是 A股和港股形成显著利好。 人民币近期 走强 主要 原因 外部环境改善 。 美元持续走弱， 2025年美元指数已累计下跌超7%，美联储降息预期升温 ， 12月降息概率升至 8 0%以上，削弱美元吸引力 。 中美利差 收窄， 美联储降息频率高于中国央行，中美 10年期国债收益率利差缩小，提升人民币资产性价比。 内部支撑强化 。 我国 经济韧性凸显， 我国 出口超预期增长 ， 如四季度结汇需求激增 ， 政策工具箱丰富， 这 夯实 了人民币 汇率基础 。 政策主动引 导， 我国 央行通过中间价持续释放升值信号，并收紧离岸流动性抑制做空， 这 稳定 了 市场预期。 此外， 外资增配人民币资产 。 国际投行集体 （ 如高盛、瑞银等 ） 唱多 A股，科技股吸引力增强，跨境资金回流中国资本市场加速，也提振了人民币汇 率。 人民币 ...