Economic Weakness: Financial Magic of Wall Street - The U.S. boasts a GDP exceeding $29 trillion, yet its manufacturing sector has shrunk to only 11% of the economy, relying on foreign countries like Japan for essential materials [4][6] - The comparison of purchasing power reveals that China accomplishes tasks with $18 trillion GDP that the U.S. requires $29 trillion to achieve [4] - During the pandemic, the U.S. struggled to produce basic medical supplies, highlighting a significant gap in capabilities compared to China [4] Military Illusion: Rusty Aircraft Carriers and Overpriced Supplies - Despite having 11 aircraft carriers, only about 4 are operational, with high failure rates in advanced systems like the Ford-class carrier [6] - The Pentagon faces corruption issues, with exorbitant prices for basic items, indicating inefficiencies in military spending [6] - The U.S. military's performance in conflicts has been poor, exemplified by the 20-year engagement in Afghanistan that ended with a swift Taliban takeover [6] Debt Crisis: $36 Trillion Debt Burden - The U.S. government faces immense pressure from daily interest payments of $2 billion, with total national debt sufficient to purchase the entire European Union [7][8] - A significant portion of the population lacks health insurance, and many middle-class families struggle to survive financially during unemployment [7] - The decline of the dollar's credibility is evident as countries increasingly turn to alternative currencies for trade, with central banks selling U.S. debt and accumulating gold [7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the micro-cap stock market in China, highlighting the recent performance and outlook for micro-cap stocks, particularly in the context of supportive government policies and market liquidity conditions [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supportive Policies for Micro-Cap Stocks**: Regulatory support for small and micro enterprises has been significant, including simplified review processes and relaxed payment tool restrictions, which have injected new capital and resources into the market [1][3]. 2. **Market Liquidity**: The Chinese financial market is experiencing a period of loose liquidity, with synchronized growth in social financing and M2, alongside comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts by the central bank, creating a favorable environment for micro-cap stocks [1][3]. 3. **Quantitative Predictions**: Quantitative models indicate that institutional holding concentration and the PB ratio for large and small caps are at historical lows, suggesting potential upside for micro-cap stocks [1][3]. 4. **Risk Appetite**: Market participants in the micro-cap sector exhibit a high risk appetite, with significant financing participation, although northbound capital participation remains low, indicating a unique market structure [1][3]. 5. **Calendar Effects**: There are notable calendar effects in micro-cap stocks, with historical patterns showing declines in April and January, and increases in May and November, which align with current market behavior [1][3]. 6. **Crowding Signals**: Current crowding signals are low, but there is a need to monitor potential pullbacks due to leveraged funds and emotional volatility [1][4]. Future Risks 1. **Diminishing Support Effects**: While policies supporting small and micro enterprises are expected to underpin liquidity, the benefits from merger and acquisition activities may diminish over time, and the market has already priced in some expectations [5]. 2. **Market Behavior Post-May**: Historically, the strength of the market tends to recede after May, and a broad rally post-mid-year is unlikely to repeat [5]. 3. **Volatility and Crowding**: There is a need to remain vigilant regarding potential volatility and crowding conditions, as these could lead to significant market fluctuations [5]. Institutional Investor Perspectives - Institutional investors are cautious about allocating to micro-cap stocks at current high levels, preferring to wait for more favorable conditions. The focus is on high-certainty sectors such as specialized and innovative enterprises [6]. Important Data Indicators 1. **Financing Participation**: Among 400 micro-cap stocks, 109 have financing participation above 3%, and 39 exceed 5% [7]. 2. **Northbound Capital Participation**: Only 7 stocks meet the requirements for northbound trading, with participation ratios below 0.1% [7]. 3. **Historical Low Concentration**: Institutional holding concentration and the PB ratio for large and small caps are at historical lows, significantly impacting the current market environment [7]. Extreme Discount Rates in Small-Cap Stocks - The discount rates for small-cap stocks have reached historical extremes due to increased hedging demand from quantitative neutral strategies, policy restrictions limiting short-selling mechanisms, and reduced hedging demand from structured products [2][8][9]. Relationship Between DCN Products and Discount Rates - DCN products are seen to weaken the discount rates in small-cap stocks by increasing the market's long positions, thus alleviating extreme discount phenomena [10][15]. Changes in the Small-Cap Stock Market Since Early 2024 - The small-cap stock market has seen a significant decline in structured product demand, particularly from snowball products, while quantitative neutral strategies have increased, leading to heightened market pressure [11]. Differences Between Snowball and DCN Products - Snowball products have a daily observation mechanism that can trigger selling pressure, while DCN products lack this mechanism, providing a more stable hedging approach and reducing potential market volatility [12][15]. Current Scale of Structured Products - The estimated scale of snowball products is around 1 trillion, having peaked at 2-2.5 trillion in early 2024, indicating a significant reduction in market impact compared to earlier levels [13][14].

金十数据6月4日讯，俄罗斯莫斯科交易所宣布，计划于2025年6月4日正式推出比特币期货交易。这一产 品仅向合格投资者开放，首批IBIT期货合约将于2025年9月到期。该合约以美元报价，并以卢布结算， 基于比特币信托ETF的价格。俄罗斯央行已在5月批准金融机构向合格投资者提供加密货币挂钩的金融 衍生品，但建议避免直接投资加密货币。 莫斯科交易所向合格投资者推出比特币期货交易 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In 2025, on June 4th, the implied volatility of stock index options increased in a positive correlation during intraday trading. A bull call spread strategy can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 1000 Index, and other indices rose. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3868.74, up 16.73 points; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6123.17, up 53.14 points. Trading volumes of most indices decreased, such as the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index with a trading volume of 116.80 billion shares, a decrease of 14.60 billion shares [2]. - **Option Market Statistics**: Trading volumes of most options decreased, while open interest increased. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 44122, a decrease of 6399, and the open interest was 174658, an increase of 2711. The VL - PCR and OI - PCR of different options varied [2]. 3.2 Option Indicator Data Statistics - **Option Volatility Statistics (Near - Month)**: The ATM - IV of different options showed different changes. For example, the ATM - IV of CSI 1000 index options was 18.40%, up 0.32%. The HV of most options also changed, with the HV of CSI 1000 index options at 14.70%, up 0.51% [5]. - **Option Volatility Statistics (Next - Month)**: The ATM - IV and HV of different options also had corresponding changes. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 12.90%, down 0.30%, and the HV was 8.09%, up 0.06% [5]. 3.3 Option Charts - **Shanghai 50 Index Options**: Include full - contract PCR charts, main - contract skewness trend charts, volatility cone charts, and volatility term structure charts [9]. - **Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Options**: Include full - contract PCR charts, main - contract skewness trend charts, volatility cone charts, and volatility term structure charts [13]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include full - contract PCR charts, main - contract skewness trend charts, volatility cone charts, and volatility term structure charts [17]. - **ETF Options (Shanghai 50ETF, Huatai - Baorui 300ETF, etc.)**: Each type of ETF option has corresponding full - contract PCR charts, main - contract skewness trend charts, volatility cone charts, and volatility term structure charts [24][28].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the financial derivatives business management system of Zhejiang Xinkai Technology Group Co., Ltd., emphasizing risk prevention and control in derivatives trading, aligning with relevant laws and regulations [1][2]. Summary by Sections General Principles - The system aims to regulate the financial derivatives trading behavior of the company and its subsidiaries, ensuring compliance with laws such as the Company Law and Securities Law of the People's Republic of China [1]. - Financial derivatives include products like forwards, options, swaps, and currency swaps, which can be settled either through physical delivery or cash difference [1]. Operational Principles - The company and its subsidiaries must strictly control the types and scale of derivatives trading, ensuring it does not affect normal business operations [2]. - Derivatives trading should not be solely for profit but should be based on normal business operations, focusing on hedging and risk prevention related to exchange rates and interest rates [2]. Approval Authority - Any foreign exchange derivatives trading must be preceded by a feasibility analysis report submitted to the board of directors for approval [2]. - Overall plans and limits for derivatives trading must comply with regulations and require board approval; if exceeding board authority, shareholder approval is necessary [2]. Management and Operational Processes - The board authorizes the chairman and representatives to manage foreign exchange derivatives trading, including signing legal documents [4]. - The finance director leads the derivatives team, overseeing risk management, market analysis, and strategy formulation [4]. - The operations team is responsible for providing relevant data and ensuring approved funds for derivatives trading are monitored and reconciled monthly [5]. Risk Management - A risk measurement system is established to assess funding risks and price fluctuation risks associated with derivatives trading [6]. - In case of significant market changes that increase risks, the company must report and initiate emergency measures [6]. - A stop-loss mechanism is activated when market price fluctuations approach predetermined limits [6]. Information Disclosure - The company must disclose information regarding derivatives trading in accordance with regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7]. - Any confirmed gains or losses from derivatives trading that exceed 10% of the most recent audited net profit must be disclosed promptly [7]. Other Provisions - The management system will be effective upon approval by the board and will be interpreted by the board [9].

Core Insights - The market risk appetite has improved following the Trump administration's delay in trade negotiations and active dialogues with major trade partners [1] - The popularity of "0DTE" options has surged, with trading volume reaching a historical high, indicating a growing trend among short-term investors [2][3] - The emergence of the "TACO trade" strategy reflects investor behavior in response to Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, leading to new trading patterns in the derivatives market [4][5] Group 1: 0DTE Options - In May, the trading volume of "0DTE" options linked to the S&P 500 surged to a record 61%, marking a significant milestone for this popular trading strategy [2] - The short-term nature of these options allows investors to engage with lower premiums while aiming for substantial returns, attracting many short-term traders [2] - The increase in "0DTE" options trading is largely driven by retail investors, with a notable 9 percentage point rise from April [2] Group 2: TACO Trade Strategy - The "TACO trade" strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," capitalizes on the market's reaction to Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent retreats [4] - This strategy involves using collar options to hedge against significant losses while limiting potential profits, reflecting investor sentiment towards short-term volatility [4] - Market experts suggest that as the S&P 500 approaches 6000 points, similar trading patterns will re-emerge, driven by Trump's strong rhetoric and its impact on market volatility [5]

Core Insights - The significant increase in positions for the September 2025 Federal Funds futures and one-month SOFR futures indicates active basis trading in the market [1] - On Thursday, May 29, there was a notable buying activity in the basis trading volume for near-month contracts [1] - A court ruling that blocked certain import tariffs imposed by President Trump has contributed to a decrease in risk exposure for U.S. Treasury futures when adjusted for roll [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Longtou (Group) Co., Ltd. plans to engage in financial derivatives trading in 2025 to hedge against foreign exchange risks, with a maximum single transaction amount of $5 million and an annual cumulative contract amount not exceeding $150 million [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Overview - The purpose of the trading is to mitigate operational risks arising from foreign exchange fluctuations, focusing on the company's actual business needs without engaging in speculative or arbitrage trading [2]. - The planned transaction amount will not exceed the company's foreign currency payment and receipt amounts, with a maximum single transaction of $5 million and an annual cumulative contract amount of $150 million [2]. - The funding for these transactions will come from the company's own funds, without involving raised capital [2]. - The types of financial derivatives to be used include forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, and foreign exchange options [2]. 2. Transaction Duration and Authorization - The validity of the trading authorization will last for 12 months from the date of approval by the shareholders' meeting, allowing for the recycling of funds within the approved limits [3]. - The board of directors will be authorized to make investment decisions and sign relevant contracts within the approved limits, pending shareholder approval [3]. 3. Risk Analysis and Control Measures - The company acknowledges potential risks associated with financial derivatives trading, including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, and internal control risk [4]. - To mitigate these risks, the company will adhere to a strict risk management principle, ensuring that trading activities do not affect normal operations and are limited to low-risk financial products [4]. - The company will implement a regular reporting mechanism for its business activities and establish clear internal risk management procedures [4]. 4. Impact on the Company - The proposed financial derivatives trading is expected to enhance the company's financial stability by hedging against foreign exchange fluctuations, aligning with the long-term interests of the company and its shareholders [4]. - The accounting treatment for these transactions will comply with relevant accounting standards, ensuring proper recognition and measurement of financial instruments [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative product, the following outlooks are given: - **Stock Index Futures**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach) [6] - **Stock Index Options**: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach for direction strategies) [6] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral (suggests a trend of oscillation) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: External factors bring short - term positive news, but due to uncertainties in tariff policies and lack of fundamental support, investors are advised to wait and see instead of actively increasing positions [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volatility is further suppressed, and the market has weak expectations for fluctuations. Direction strategies suggest waiting and seeing, with a focus on covered call strategies and light - position long - volatility strategies [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Market risk appetite has increased, suppressing the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Attention should be paid to upcoming economic data and central bank operations, and different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market volume increased and prices rose, with the All - A Index up 1.17%. The catalyst was the US court's prevention of Trump's tariff policy, leading to a general rise in the Asia - Pacific market [6]. - **Futures Market Signals**: The total position of IM increased by nearly 30,000 contracts, and the discount of the current - quarter contract of IM narrowed, indicating active long - position capital layout [6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see due to uncertainties in tariff policies and the low cost - performance of small - cap stocks [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Liquidity**: Driven by the strong performance of the underlying assets, the trading volume increased by nearly 50%, mainly concentrated in the morning session [2][6]. - **Volatility**: Volatility declined rapidly after the mid - day session, with both call and put volatilities decreasing, indicating weak market expectations for fluctuations [2][6]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see for direction strategies, focus on covered call strategies, and lightly position in long - volatility strategies at low levels [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures continued to be weak, with the T main contract opening lower and trading at a low level throughout the day [3][6][7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy, strong stock market performance, and upcoming 5 - month PMI data affected market sentiment [3][6][8]. - **Investment Advice**: Trend strategy: oscillation; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; Basis strategy: appropriately pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: steeper curve has higher odds in the medium term [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 24, 2025, was 240,000, higher than the previous value of 227,000 and the forecast of 230,000. The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, and the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May 2025 is expected to be 51 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Airlines**: Starting from June 5, 2025, airlines will adjust the fuel surcharge for domestic flights. Flights of 800 kilometers or less will be exempt from the surcharge, while flights over 800 kilometers will charge 10 yuan per passenger per segment [9]. - **Cultural Exports**: Four departments jointly released the list of key cultural export enterprises and projects for 2025 - 2026, identifying 404 enterprises and 121 projects [10]. - **Tariffs**: The Chinese side urges the US to completely cancel unilateral tariff - imposing measures, and the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies were illegal [10]. - **Credit Bonds**: Multiple credit bond ETFs have received approval from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation to be included in the repurchase collateral pool [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The document mainly lists the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and other data of various commodities and financial products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Ferroalloys**: For 72 - silicon - iron qualified blocks (SF507), the spot price is 5322, the basis is 376, and the basis rate is 93.30%. For 6517 - silicon - manganese (SM509), the spot price is 5530, the basis is 240, and the basis rate is 4.34% [1]. - **Steel Products**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai for rebar (RB2510) is 2978, and the futures price is 3120 with a basis of 142 and a basis rate of 4.77%. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the spot price is 3110, the futures price is 3200, the basis is 90, and the basis rate is 2.89% [1]. - **Iron Ore and Coking Coal**: The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port for iron ore (I2509) is 707, with a basis of 10.07%. For coke (J2509), the spot price is 1332, and the basis rate is 4.95%. For coking coal (JM2509), the spot price is 759, and the basis rate is 23.19% [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper (CU2507), the spot price is 78485, the futures price is 78130, the basis is 355, and the basis rate is 0.45%. For aluminum (AL2507), the spot price is 20380, the futures price is 20200, the basis is 180, and the basis rate is 0.89% [1]. Precious Metals - For gold (AU2508), the spot price is 764.3, the futures price is 762.5, the basis is - 1.8, and the basis rate is - 0.24%. For silver (AG2508), the spot price is 8224.0, the futures price is 8202.0, the basis is - 22.0, and the basis rate is - 0.27% [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2509), the spot price is 2962.0, the futures price is 2820, the basis is - 142.0, and the basis rate is - 4.79%. For soybean oil (Y2509), the spot price is 7960, the futures price is 7724.0, the basis is 236.0, and the basis rate is 3.06% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX509), the spot price is 7111.1, the futures price is 6788.0, the basis is 323.1, and the basis rate is 4.76%. For PTA (TA509), the spot price is 4860.0, the futures price is 4814.0, the basis is 46.0, and the basis rate is 0.96% [1]. Financial Products - For CSI 300 index futures (IF2506), the spot price is 3858.7, the futures price is 3832.8, the basis is - 25.9, and the basis rate is - 0.68%. For SSE 50 index futures (IH2506), the spot price is 2690.9, the futures price is 2673.6, and the basis rate is - 0.65% [1].