Group 1: Report Core View - This week, domestic financial data declined due to seasonal factors, but the market didn't focus on it. The personal consumer loan interest - subsidy policy had limited impact. The main market drivers were news - related, like the shutdown of CATL's important lithium mine boosting the ChiNext and Sino - US chip competition strengthening domestic substitution expectations and driving up the STAR Market. The Shanghai - Shenzhen Composite Index and STAR Market Index led the gains among core indices [2]. - Overseas, the Stockholm economic and trade talks between China and the US postponed reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days, having a small impact on the market. The US July CPI was lower than expected, while the PPI exceeded expectations, causing repeated expectations of a September interest rate cut in the US, large fluctuations in the US dollar index, and increased disturbances to global assets [2]. - Leveraged funds continued to flow in this week, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion on Monday and then having a net inflow of over 40 billion. The market trading volume increased rapidly, with the total A - share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion for three consecutive days. The market divergence widened, and the excess returns of heavy - weight stocks relative to the index were significant. The performance of individual stocks was far inferior to the prosperity shown by the index. The Shanghai Composite Index repeatedly touched the key level of 3,700 points and then fell back, losing the 3,700 - point level again at the end - of - day call auction on Friday [2]. - Large - cap sectors were still dragged down by sectors such as banks and coal. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 had small gains, while small - and medium - cap stocks performed better. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose nearly 4%, and micro - cap stocks fell continuously, significantly underperforming small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - In terms of basis, the annualized basis of each variety strengthened significantly. IF returned to a premium state, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM converged from 10% to around 7%, moving out of the historical bottom range. As the basis strengthened, the near - month contracts in the term structure rose significantly. After the August contracts expired, the September contracts had obvious hedging cost advantages. The September contracts of IH and IF had large premiums, providing large profit margins for cash - and - carry arbitrage. Meanwhile, the inter - term spread increased significantly this week, and the inter - term reverse arbitrage had realized considerable returns, with the strategy's cost - effectiveness further declining [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model's judgment on the movement directions of the bases of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [3] Group 3: Recent Forecast Conclusion - There are historical data on the real basis changes and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusions are clearly summarized from the data presented [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices, which peaked at 400,000 yuan/ton in early 2022 and dropped to 60,000 yuan/ton before rebounding due to supply concerns following the suspension of operations at a key mine [1][3] - On August 13, lithium carbonate futures prices surged to nearly 90,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high since July 2024, driven by fears of supply shortages after the suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxi province mine [3] - The Jiangxi mine, operated by CATL, has an annual production capacity equivalent to 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate, accounting for approximately 6% of China's total production capacity in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The new amendments to the Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, have significant implications for lithium mining, including classifying lithium as an independent mineral and raising the lithium oxide grade threshold for by-product lithium resources [5] - Several lithium companies are facing operational suspensions due to regulatory issues, with some companies voluntarily halting production for upgrades or compliance, indicating a trend towards reducing excessive competition in the industry [4][5] - Analysts suggest that once lithium mining companies suspend operations, it will be challenging to resume production quickly, which may keep lithium carbonate prices elevated for a while, despite some optimistic market sentiments [6][7] Group 3 - Some industry participants express skepticism about the sustainability of lithium carbonate prices above 80,000 yuan/ton, citing that the suspension of one mine may not significantly impact overall supply and that current production levels remain high [8] - There are concerns that increased imports of lithium from overseas could further affect domestic prices, potentially leading to downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices in the future [8]

Group 1: Report Core Information - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - In the short term, prices may continue to rise due to the implementation of mine shutdowns in Jiangxi, the expectation of the peak season for end - users in the fourth quarter, and the boost of bullish sentiment. In the long - term, since the current shutdown targets the mine end rather than the salt end, compliant mines in the region, Australian mines, and salt lakes at home and abroad will all supplement the resource end, and the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 75,800 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan/ton [1][2] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 910 dollars, up 70 dollars; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1,215 dollars, up 60 dollars; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1,950 dollars, up 75 dollars; petalite (Li20:6% - 7%) price is 6,700 dollars, up 450 dollars; petalite (Li20:7% - 8%) price is 7,775 dollars, up 525 dollars [1][2] Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 86,140 yuan/ton, up 10.89%; lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 82,560 yuan/ton, up 2.51%; lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 82,700 yuan/ton, up 2.33%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, up 2%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 81,920 yuan/ton, up 1.01% [1] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 34,325 yuan/ton, up 845 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,770 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 118,295 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,185 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 4,520 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,980 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of 220 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 40 yuan/ton, with a change of 480 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, up 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, down 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, up 2,271 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, down 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 20,829 tons, up 1,440 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 78,069 yuan, and the profit is - 1,176 yuan; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is - 5,942 yuan [3]

经济观察报记者 邹永勤 蝴蝶偶尔扇动几下翅膀，便有可能引发一场龙卷风。在碳酸锂领域，近日就上演了一场现实版的"蝴蝶效应"。 2025年8月11日早晨开盘前，宁德时代（300750.SZ）在投资者互动平台表示，该公司"在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停了开采作业，正按相关规 定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产"。 正是这则看似简单的信息，却在碳酸锂行业迅速掀起巨浪：截至8月14日收盘，碳酸锂现货（99.50%电，国产，下同）价格连拉4天涨了10060元/吨，涨幅为 13.98%；在此期间，碳酸锂期货和锂矿股均受到市场资金热烈追捧而走出大幅上涨行情。 在碳酸锂股、期、现联袂上升的同时，市场上关于该事件的讨论逐渐深入，并衍生出了"宜春8座锂矿会否全部关停"等新的话题，成为市场热搜。 导火索 直到8月11日"事发"，市场才最终确认枧下窝矿已处于关停状态，并引发锂价与相关锂矿股的大幅飙升。统计数据显示，碳酸锂期货于8月11日当天出现了全 线一字涨停的"奇观"，其后3天亦持续大幅震荡走高，截至8月14日收盘，当周主连合约上涨了10.84%；在此期间，碳酸锂现货价格大幅上涨了13.98%，锂 矿股亦 ...

Core Insights - Barclays PLC increased its stake in Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466)(09696) by acquiring 3.1656 million shares at a price of HKD 47.3146 per share, totaling approximately HKD 150 million [1] - Following this acquisition, Barclays' total shareholding in Tianqi Lithium reached 8.3289 million shares, representing a 5.07% ownership stake [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxiawo mine by CATL due to the expiration of its mining license has sparked market interest, leading to a surge in lithium carbonate prices and related stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The news of the mining suspension has resulted in a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures, with contracts "2509" and "2510" hitting the limit up on August 11 [1]. - Lithium mining stocks, including Shengxin Lithium Energy, experienced a collective surge, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [1]. Group 2: Company Response - CATL confirmed on August 11 that it has paused mining operations at the Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9, and is in the process of applying for a renewal [2]. - The company stated that this matter would not have a significant impact on its overall operations [2]. Group 3: Mining Characteristics - Despite the name, the Jiangxiawo mine is not classified as a "lithium mine" in the strict sense, as the registered mining type is ceramic clay [3]. - Industry experts noted that the lithium grade in the Yichun area is generally low, and the lithium grade at the Jiangxiawo mine is significantly below the typical industrial grade of 0.8%, indicating that lithium is extracted as a byproduct [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate has improved. With consumption support and disturbances at the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 85,500 yuan/ton and closed at 85,300 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,060,127 lots, and the open interest was 389,177 lots, down from 392,675 lots the previous day. The basis was - 4,100 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 21,939 lots, a change of 260 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,700 - 84,300 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,050 - 80,450 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan/ton. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 990 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. Downstream procurement and trader transactions increased, and the transaction price of lithium carbonate spot moved up significantly [1] - Weekly production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with an increase in production from salt lakes and spodumene and a decrease from mica. Weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with an increase in intermediate - link inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [1] Strategy - The supply - demand pattern has improved. The lithium mining of leading large - scale manufacturers has stopped, and the duration is unknown. The subsequent approval of other mines is also uncertain. Attention should be paid to the mining end. With consumption support, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the market fluctuates greatly, and risk management is necessary [2] Risks Affecting Investment - Consumption end falls short of expectations [4] - Mining end disturbances exceed expectations [4] - Macroeconomic sentiment and open - interest changes have an impact [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is in a state of over - supply due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][12]. - Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut and suspension plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [10]. - Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 79,732 yuan/ton, a 0.88% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,114 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 83,715 yuan/ton, a 1.26% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,942 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase; in July 2025, the lithium carbonate import volume was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous value [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase from the previous value. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, and the production from different sources such as spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake showed different trends [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase from the previous value. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 30,990 tons (622 type), a 7.08% increase from the previous value. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased, with the lithium iron phosphate loading volume increasing by 1.87% and the ternary battery loading volume decreasing by 5.27% [17]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease. The smelter inventory decreased by 2.56%, and the downstream inventory increased by 0.26% [17]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds vary. For example, the production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate was 1,114 yuan/ton, while the production of purchased lithium mica resulted in a loss of 4,942 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a pattern of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The main contract of lithium carbonate once dropped to 82,820 during the session, but closed with a doji star at the end of the session. Although related industrial products had significant intraday declines, lithium carbonate was relatively resilient. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1,000 to 82,000, the price of Australian ore rose by 20 to 990, and the price of lithium mica increased by 45 to 2,075. The profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene expanded to 1,114, while the loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened to 4,942. Salt plants' production enthusiasm was high, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new historical high of 19,980. The social inventory decreased by 162 to 142,256 tons. This week, both production and sales of lithium carbonate were booming. The shutdown of the Jianxiaowo Mine did not affect the weekly production of lithium carbonate. The emergence of a turning point in social inventory supported the lithium price. However, the current high - price lithium carbonate has a strong stimulating effect on upstream salt plants. It is expected that under the background of high - growth supply, the de - stocking of lithium carbonate will be limited. With limited support from the fundamentals and the weakening of small - scale speculation, the lithium price is expected to decline [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit bottom and rebounded, closing with a doji star. It was relatively resilient compared to related industrial products [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1,000 to 82,000, the price of Australian ore rose by 20 to 990, and the price of lithium mica increased by 45 to 2,075 [12]. - **Profit and Production**: The profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene expanded to 1,114, while the loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened to 4,942. The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new historical high of 19,980, and the social inventory decreased by 162 to 142,256 tons [12]. - **Price Forecast**: With high - growth supply and limited fundamental support, the lithium price is expected to decline [12]. 3.2 Industry News - **Technological Innovation**: Scientists at Tokyo University of Science have developed a new quasi - solid electrolyte 3D - SLISE, which significantly improves the safety, efficiency, and recyclability of lithium - ion batteries. It uses environmentally friendly components such as borate - water - based systems, can achieve multi - directional lithium - ion conduction, reduces production costs and carbon footprint, and enables fast charging (20 minutes) and over 400 cycles of life. Its water - based design allows for the direct recovery of precious elements such as cobalt in electrodes by soaking in water without using harmful chemicals. This technology is expected to be applied in electronics, energy storage, and electric vehicles, promoting the battery industry towards a cleaner and more sustainable development [13]. - **Business Cooperation**: On August 4, 2025, Tiantie Technology announced that Anhui Tiantie Lithium - Ion New Energy Co., Ltd. and Zhuhai Xinjie Energy Technology Co., Ltd. signed a "Procurement Framework Agreement" and a "Framework Agreement Purchase Order." Zhuhai Xinjie will purchase copper - lithium composite strips from Anhui Tiantie, with an order amount of 400 million yuan [13].

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 15, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 6 months [1] Regulatory Changes - The State Council has decided to amend the regulations on foreign entry and exit management, introducing a new K visa for foreign young scientific and technological talents, effective from October 1, 2025 [1] Market Activity - The number of investors participating in margin trading reached a new high for the year at 523,400 on August 13, 2025, an increase of 46,100 or 9.67% from the previous trading day [1] Company News - Ningde Times' Jiangxi mining area has been suspended since August 10, 2025, with no clear timeline for resumption, while Guoxuan High-Tech's lithium mine in the same region remains operational [2] - Cambrian Technology announced that recent online information regarding large orders and revenue forecasts is misleading and not true [3] - Tibet Tourism's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.97% within three months, with the exact timing dependent on market conditions [4] - China Telecom reported a net profit of 23.02 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 5.5% increase year-on-year, and plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 16.58 billion yuan [5] - Hengrui Medicine's subsidiary received approval for clinical trials of SHR-7782 injection, a new cancer treatment [6] - Tianpu Co. announced a potential change in control, leading to a temporary stock suspension [6] - Dayuan Pump Industry clarified that its liquid cooling business is part of its original operations, with first-quarter sales of approximately 1.6 million yuan [6] - Jieli Rigging plans to invest 100 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on marine technology [7] - Kexiang Co. intends to raise up to 300 million yuan through a private placement for upgrading PCB production lines [7] - Zhongzhi Co.'s largest shareholder plans to transfer 24.73% of its shares through a public solicitation [7] - Kangda New Materials plans to acquire 51% of Zhongke Huamei for 275 million yuan to expand into the semiconductor integrated circuit sector [8] - Electronic City is transitioning to technology urban renewal services, but new business has not yet contributed significantly to revenue or profit [9][10]