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申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-04-23 01:50
周二指数继续反弹修复,沪指接近回补"关税跳空缺口"。周二 A 股全天继续维持修复反弹走势, 距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥。虽然经历了连续的上涨,市场观望情绪开 始加大,追涨意愿下降,但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看,在中央汇金等三家国资开 始增持,叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后,市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续影响还存在一 定不确定性,但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理,指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望:关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去,A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映,随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后,目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺,美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性,市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业,如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和消费主线,预计会受益于未来的对冲政策。A 股在美国 政府征收 ...
这三个国家,正在缓解中国外贸的“焦虑”
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-22 16:04
点击图片▲立即试听 上周,最高领导人连续走访越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨三个东南亚国家。 财经评论员刘晓博撰文指出:当前, 重点实施"周边战略",跟欧洲形成关税联盟,再加上非洲战略、南美战略,中国就可以稳住外贸基本盘,还 可以有所增长。 对中国企业家而言,这也是一次企业转向"生而全球"的好契机。 以上述东南亚三国为例,走访期间,双方总共签署超过105份双边合作文件,在当前国际秩序和经济全球化遭受冲击的背景下,此次的"商业订单 大礼包"可以说是给中国企业出海找了三个"铁杆队友"。 武汉阳逻港通往越南凯莱港的航线 其中,越南45份,涵盖互联互通、人工智能、海关检验检疫、农产品贸易、文化和体育、民生、人力资源开发等领域。 " 这既是一场 ' 用空间换时间 ' 的战略布局,更是一次 ' 以合作破壁垒 ' 的全球突围。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 关税战下,"元首外交"成了关注焦点。 马来西亚和柬埔寨,均为30多份,前者涵盖数字经济、服务贸易、"两国双园"升级发展、联合实验室、铁路、知识产权、农产品输华、大熊猫保 护等领域;后者涉及产供链合作、人工智能、发展援助、海关检验检疫、卫生、新闻等领域。 为什么优先 ...
这三个国家,正在缓解中国外贸的“焦虑”
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-22 16:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of Southeast Asia for Chinese enterprises, highlighting the potential for collaboration and economic growth amidst global trade tensions and changing international dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Strength - Cambodia's GDP is projected to reach approximately $43.24 billion in 2024, with an expected growth rate exceeding 6% [12]. - Malaysia's GDP is estimated at around $465.54 billion in 2024, with a per capita GDP of approximately $12,400 [31]. - Vietnam's export dependency is high, with a GDP export reliance of 80%, positioning it as a key intermediary in global supply chains [53]. Group 2: Trade Characteristics - China has been Cambodia's largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years, with bilateral trade expected to reach $15.18 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [24][25]. - In 2024, the trade volume between China and Malaysia is projected to be $212.04 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.4% [36]. - The total trade volume between China and Vietnam is anticipated to be approximately $261.22 billion in 2024, marking a new high in recent years [60]. Group 3: Industry Models - Cambodia is characterized as a low-cost manufacturing hub, focusing on labor-intensive industries such as textiles and electronics assembly [6][10]. - Malaysia serves as a strategic partner in advanced manufacturing, with significant contributions from the electronics and automotive sectors [47]. - Vietnam is recognized as a critical market for global supply chains, facilitating trade between China and developed countries like the U.S. [54][56]. Group 4: Strategic Opportunities - The recent visits by Chinese leaders to Southeast Asia resulted in over 105 bilateral cooperation agreements, enhancing opportunities for Chinese enterprises to expand internationally [3][5]. - The "Diamond Six" cooperation framework between China and Cambodia aims to deepen economic ties and investment, with Chinese direct investment in Cambodia reaching $1.38 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 118% [22][23]. - Malaysia's strategic location and strong consumer market make it an attractive destination for Chinese companies looking to penetrate Southeast Asian markets [41][45]. Group 5: Challenges and Considerations - Cambodia faces challenges such as low-skilled labor and infrastructure deficits, which may hinder long-term development [20][29]. - Malaysia must address pressures related to industrial upgrades and maintaining its competitive edge in the global market [48]. - Vietnam's demographic challenges, including an aging population, could impact its economic growth trajectory [65].
报喜鸟(002154):短期盈利能力承压,期待多品牌后续发展
Orient Securities· 2025-04-22 15:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.45 CNY based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3][9] Core Views - The company's short-term profitability is under pressure, but there are expectations for multi-brand development in the future [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, projecting earnings per share of 0.34, 0.40, and 0.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][9] - The report highlights a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a revenue of 5.15 billion CNY, down 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 495 million CNY, down 29.1% year-on-year [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 5,254 million CNY - 2024A: 5,153 million CNY (down 1.9%) - 2025E: 5,373 million CNY (up 4.3%) - 2026E: 5,833 million CNY (up 8.6%) - 2027E: 6,340 million CNY (up 8.7%) [2][8][13] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: 698 million CNY - 2024A: 495 million CNY (down 29.1%) - 2025E: 497 million CNY (up 0.4%) - 2026E: 577 million CNY (up 16.1%) - 2027E: 672 million CNY (up 16.5%) [2][8][13] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023A: 0.48 CNY - 2024A: 0.34 CNY - 2025E: 0.34 CNY - 2026E: 0.40 CNY - 2027E: 0.46 CNY [2][8][13] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 64.7% in 2023A, expected to be 65.0% in 2024A - Net Margin: 13.3% in 2023A, expected to be 9.6% in 2024A - Return on Equity: 16.9% in 2023A, expected to be 11.4% in 2024A [2][8][13] Brand Performance - The report indicates that the Baohiniao brand is under pressure, while the Haji Si brand shows resilience, and the Le Fei Ye brand is experiencing high growth [8] - Revenue growth for 2024 by brand: - Baohiniao: -8.4% - Haji Si: +1.3% - Le Fei Ye: +28% - Bao Niao: -2.9% [8] Strategic Developments - The company announced the acquisition of Woolrich brand's global intellectual property for 384 million CNY, which is expected to enhance its presence in the American retro outdoor market [8] - The establishment of a new R&D center and headquarters in Shanghai with an investment of approximately 300-400 million CNY is also planned [8]
美尔雅暴雷内幕:实控人亲属圈操控关联交易 监管立案后,5万投资者如何挽回损失?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-04-22 09:13
记者 李山 2025年4月18日,美尔雅(600107.SH)发布公告称,公司及实控人郑继平因涉嫌信息披露违法违规被 证监会立案调查。次日开盘,公司股价以跌停价4.11元封死,全天成交额仅1804.87万元,封单超20万 手。这场监管风暴背后,暴露出上市公司治理、财务合规及业务转型的多重困局。 资金占用揭治理漏洞 财务迷雾下的经营困局 2024年4月,美尔雅发布《会计差错更正公告》,对2022年财报进行追溯调整,涉及应收账款、存货、 其他应收款等科目。2021-2023年,公司净利润从2285万元断崖式下跌至-5946万元,连续两年被审计机 构出具保留意见。2024年三季报显示,前三季度营收同比下滑20.06%,毛利率下降11.83个百分点,煤 炭贸易业务亏损达800万元。在主营业务持续萎缩的背景下,公司试图通过处置青海众友医药股权等资 产处置行为粉饰报表,但转型成效甚微。 作为中国纺织服装行业老牌企业,美尔雅近年面临双重压力:2024年国内服装零售额同比下降7.3%, 公司主营业务收入从2021年的4.86亿元降至2023年的4.54亿元,毛利率从38.75%下滑至43.66%。在传统 业务举步维艰的情况下 ...
黑牡丹(集团)股份有限公司2025年第一季度报告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-04-21 22:01
登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 公司代码:600510 公司简称:黑牡丹 黑牡丹(集团)股份有限公司2024年年度报告摘要 第一节 重要提示 1、本年度报告摘要来自年度报告全文,为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规划,投 资者应当到http://www.sse.com.cn网站仔细阅读年度报告全文。 2、本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、完整 性,不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏,并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 3、公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 4、天健会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)为本公司出具了标准无保留意见的审计报告。 5、董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 经天健会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)审计,截至2024年12月31日,公司母公司报表中期末未分配利润 为人民币930,595,657.00元。公司2024年年度拟以实施权益分派股权登记日登记的总股本为基数分配利 润,2024年年度利润分配预案如下: 1、公司拟向全体股东每股派发现金红利0.041元(含税)。截至2024年12月31日,公司总股本 1,032 ...
泰慕士跌停,上榜营业部合计净卖出432.26万元
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-04-21 09:10
泰慕士4月21日交易公开信息 | 买/ | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额(万 | 卖出金额(万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 元) | 元) | | | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业 部 | 513.61 | 409.20 | | | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第一证券营业部 | 503.95 | 412.73 | | | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第二证券营业部 | 457.56 | 390.04 | | | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第二证券营业部 | 380.79 | 324.09 | | | 国信证券股份有限公司浙江互联网分公司 | 377.34 | 339.78 | | | 中国银河证券股份有限公司北京中关村大街证券营业部 | 3.23 | 703.52 | | | 中信证券股份有限公司浙江分公司 | 332.44 | 421.84 | | | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第一证券营业部 | 503.95 | 412.73 | | 卖四 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业 部 | 513.61 ...
申洲国际(02313):2024年顺利收官,收入利润表现亮眼
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-21 04:33
证 券 研 究 报 告 申洲国际(02313)2024 年报点评 强推(维持) 2024 年顺利收官,收入利润表现亮眼 目标价:82.50 港元 事项: ❖ 公司公布 2024 年年报。2024 年,公司实现营收 286.6 亿元,同比+14.8%,归 母净利润 62.4 亿元,同比+36.9%。公司 24 年末派息 1.28 港元/股,考虑中期 股息,全年累计派息 2.53 港元/股,派息比例为 55.8%,按 4 月 11 日收盘价 计,对应股息率 5.2%。 评论: [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 28,663 | 32,147 | 35,564 | 38,825 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 6,241 | 6,631 | 7,431 | 8,231 | | 同比增速(%) | 36.9% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 1 ...
纺织品和服装行业周报:3月服装零售稳健,关注一季报预期较好标的
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-20 10:23
核心观点 3 月服装零售表现稳健,终端消费力逐步恢复。3 月社零同比增长 5.9%,环比 1-2 月提速显著,反映出随着政府持续 推出多项消费补贴以及 3 月《提振消费专项行动方案》,消费意愿以及信心持续提升。服装零售同比增长 3.6%,表 现弱于整体消费大盘,主要因为 3 月部分地区天气异常,对板块主要公司春装流水形成影响,但 3 月增速环比 1-2 月 仍提升 0.3pct,反映终端消费力逐步改善。展望未来,4 月北上等核心城市气温转暖,有助春夏装销售增长,整体 来看我们认为服装消费处于复苏过程,服装板块复苏的潜在弹性和改善空间,建议持续关注服装板块的投资机会。 各大品牌 3月线上稳健,关注稳健医疗等数据超预期可能。根据久谦数据,3月服装配饰线上销售额同比增长2.6%, 总体与统计局数据吻合(服装线上同比下降 0.1%),受天气影响,各大服饰品牌 3 月数据环比 1-2 月份有所下降。 1)运动与户外服饰中,FILA、特步等维持良好增长,波司登受益于 3 月气温较低,销售额同比增长超 90%,Q1 同比 增长 13.6%。2)个护行业 3 月受 24 年高基数影响有较为明显的降速,全棉时代/奈丝公主 3 ...
纺织品和服装行业研究:3月服装零售稳健,关注一系报预期较好标的
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-20 09:49
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the apparel sector, indicating that it is in a recovery phase with potential investment opportunities [1][10]. Core Insights - March retail performance in the apparel sector showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer spending driven by government initiatives [1][10]. - The online sales of apparel and accessories grew by 2.6% year-on-year in March, with notable performances from brands like FILA and Bosideng, which saw significant increases in sales [2][12]. - The report highlights the stability in raw material prices, with 328-grade cotton priced at 14,902 RMB per ton, indicating a stable supply chain environment [3][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - The apparel retail sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in March, with a notable increase in consumer confidence due to government subsidies [1][10]. - The performance of various segments within the apparel industry shows a positive trend, particularly in sports and outdoor apparel, which maintained good growth rates [2][12]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended brands include Hai Lan Home, Anta Sports, and Wellbeing Medical, which are expected to benefit from market trends and consumer preferences [4][26]. - The report suggests that leading textile manufacturers like Zhejiang Natural and Shenzhou International are well-positioned to navigate external uncertainties and gain market share [4][26]. Market Review and Company Announcements - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.57% increase in the last week, ranking sixth among 28 industry sectors [5][21]. - Key company announcements include Baolong Oriental reporting a revenue increase of 14.86% year-on-year, while Xinao shares noted a 9.07% revenue growth [30][31].