Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index briefly surpassed the 5500 resistance level due to optimism surrounding potential tariff reductions between the US and China, as well as a shift in Federal Reserve policy, although analysts warn that this breakout is fragile [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - To sustain a breakthrough in the 5600-5650 range, four catalysts need substantial progress: meaningful tariff reductions, a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, long-term interest rates below 4% without recession signals, and upward revisions in earnings expectations [1] - The correlation changes between bonds and stocks make yield trends crucial for market direction, with recent fluctuations in the 10-year US Treasury yield highlighting risks at the end of the cycle [1] - If the 10-year yield drops below 4% due to a compression of term premiums, it could drive stock market gains, while yields exceeding 4.5% may trigger risk-averse behavior [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - A stable labor market is key to avoiding a pessimistic scenario where unemployment rises by 200 basis points; the market has not yet priced in a true labor market recession [1] - Continuous non-farm payroll growth exceeding 100,000 and stable initial jobless claims are necessary to reduce the current 40% probability of recession [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - In an uncertain environment, the company recommends doubling down on high-quality stocks with earnings resilience that are undervalued by the market [1] - The focus should not be on cyclical sectors but rather on companies whose pricing reflects ISM levels below 44 and have historically smaller drawdowns during past recessions [1] - The company suggests overweighting US stocks over international equities, particularly those sensitive to dollar fluctuations, such as European and Japanese stocks [1] - The stability of US corporate earnings, quality factor advantages, and potential currency benefits create relative advantages in this volatile late-cycle period [1] - Investors are encouraged to use market volatility to increase allocations to quality assets, including defensive stocks and selected cyclical stocks, rather than chasing breakouts lacking fundamental confirmation [1]

本报记者 罗辑 北京报道 4月28日，特朗普重返白宫即将满百日。 Wind数据显示，从1月20日特朗普重返白宫以来，美元指数下跌约9%，若不能迅速反弹，到百日之 期，或创下自1973年以来历任美国总统上任百日内的最大跌幅。 这意味着，近期出现的美元抛售潮，或是1971年"尼克松冲击"（当时尼克松推动了包括美元脱离金本位 在内的相关政策，导致布雷顿森林体系崩溃引发全球抛售美元）以来，美元在历任美国总统"百日执 政"中的最差表现。 虽然近日美元指数有微幅反弹，但远不及收复"对等关税"风暴砸出的深坑，更勿论回到2025年年初的高 点。 "自4月2日特朗普宣布全面及对等关税以来，美元和美国国债同时走弱，令市场有些恐慌。近期这两个 市场似乎都逐步稳定下来，但波动并未结束。"对上述走势，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室发表机构观 点提到，"我们认为至少在未来几个月内市场波动可能会持续，且波动范围也可能扩大。特朗普政府难 以预测的关税政策削弱了市场对美元的信心，而且这种损害可能不会轻易逆转。" 目前，市场的主要担忧是，在对等关税90天暂缓期内可能不会达成全面且长久的贸易协议。因此，瑞银 财富管理投资总监办公室提示，应关注美元及其 ...

"如果在六个月内从1.01美元升到了1.20美元，那么的确，这是一个大问题，" BCA Research首席欧洲策 略师Mathieu Savary说。高盛集团的经济学家称，自3月初以来欧元兑主要贸易伙伴的货币上涨了5%。 他们表示这可能会在未来两年每年使通胀率下降约0.2个百分点，但若欧元进一步升值这种拖累效应可 能加倍。Barings投资组合经理Brian Mangwiro认为，要对冲这种冲击，欧元兑美元升值到1.20以上就需 要欧洲央行在年底前将关键利率从从目前的2.25%降至1.5%以下。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports a gradual adjustment in global institutional asset allocation, with U.S. Treasuries under continued pressure and the dollar facing structural depreciation [1][2][4] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Adjustment - The report indicates that while there is no significant evidence of foreign investors massively selling U.S. Treasuries, global investment portfolios may be gradually adjusting [2][3] - The increase in the supply of "safe-haven assets" and the gradual adjustment in global asset allocation are contributing to the ongoing pressure on U.S. Treasuries [3] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - Analysts emphasize that the re-pricing of risk premiums on U.S. Treasuries and the weakening dollar are part of the adjustment process, aimed at compensating for the deterioration of risk portfolios and stimulating future demand from global investors [3] Group 3: Dollar Depreciation Trends - Goldman Sachs' FICC team highlights that uncertainty will not dissipate quickly, cautioning against being misled by short-term sell-offs [4] - Despite strong current U.S. economic data, risks remain, particularly if the economy enters a more severe period of growth weakness, which may take time to manifest [4] - The report suggests that the dollar's depreciation trend will persist in the long term, driven by tariffs, uncertainty, and recession risks [4][5] Group 4: Investor Behavior and Dollar Valuation - A significant number of leveraged investors hold dollar assets without hedging, indicating potential for a substantial increase in hedging ratios [5] - Historical data shows that the actual exchange rate of the dollar is currently about two standard deviations above the mean since the floating exchange rate era began in 1973, with past high valuation periods leading to a 25%-30% depreciation [5] - The International Monetary Fund estimates that non-U.S. investors hold up to $22 trillion in U.S. assets, suggesting that any reduction in their investment exposure could lead to significant dollar depreciation [5]

各位股东： 在上一封信中，我提到2023年是高盛的执行之年，我们在战略上取得了重要进展，使公司在未来发展中处于更有利的地位。我很高兴地报告， 2024年我们 看到了对业务和员工持续投资的回报 ，这有助于我们为客户提供卓越的服务，并为股东实现可观的业绩。 2024年，我们的净收入同比增长16%，达到535亿美元；每股收益增长77%，达到40.54美元；股本回报率（ROE）提高了500多个基点，达到12.7%；效率 比提高了11.5个百分点，达到63.1%；总股东回报率（注1）达到52%。 高盛上个月发表了2024年的年度报告， 董事长兼首席执行官苏德巍 (David Solomon) 在致股东函中回顾了公司在 过去一年取得的进展、介绍了新成立的业务线 条以及2025年的战略重点 。 从左⾄右：首席财务官 Denis Coleman 、董事长兼首席执行官 苏德巍 (David Solomon) 、总裁兼首席运营官 温泽恩 (John Waldron) 苏德巍提到，自2020年投资者日以来，高盛过去五年一路走来并非一帆风顺，但他为公司及全体员工取得的进展感到自豪。 高盛已经提前完成了多个业务目标，且凭 借着对业务实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has declined nearly 9% since Trump's return to the White House, potentially marking the worst performance in the first 100 days of a presidency since 1973, with Goldman Sachs warning of a long-term structural depreciation of the dollar [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs reports that while current "hard data" in the US remains strong, the negative impacts of tariff policies on the economy may not become apparent until mid-May or early June [1][3]. - The dollar index was reported at 99.68 points, having briefly fallen below 98, marking a three-year low [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Non-US investors currently hold $22 trillion in US assets, with half of that in unhedged stocks, indicating that a reduction in US exposure could lead to significant dollar depreciation [2][9]. - Shah emphasizes that the dollar's weakness is likely to be structural, as it serves as a natural adjustment mechanism to tariffs and economic uncertainties [3][5]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - Shah notes that the influx of private capital into US assets, which has historically supported a strong dollar, may be reversing, leading to a potential decline in demand for US assets [5][15]. - The dollar's actual value is currently above its historical average, suggesting a potential depreciation of 25% to 30% if non-US investors reduce their exposure [9]. Group 4: Policy Uncertainty - High levels of policy uncertainty and low consumer and business confidence contribute to market risk aversion, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 45% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months [16][19]. - Despite recent tariff pauses, many tariffs remain in place, and significant reductions are unlikely, which could prolong economic challenges [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market may have reached an upward turning point, but three key obstacles remain to be overcome for a sustained rally [1] Group 1: Market Signals - Recent positive signals include reduced overseas selling pressure on major tech stocks and significant net buying by hedge funds [2][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline from 5462 to a year-low of 4835, followed by a rebound of 735 basis points, closing at 5525 [2] - The dynamics of increased long-term buying in the U.S. and decreased international selling are critical for future market performance [3] Group 2: Key Indicators to Monitor - Three key confirmation signals to watch for market uptrend include market breadth, liquidity depth, and ETF trading volume [1][4] - Market breadth is currently below historical averages, indicating a need for broader stock participation in the rally [4] - Liquidity depth for S&P mini futures is approximately $4 million, still significantly below the historical average of about $13 million, suggesting market fragility [7] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Investor Behavior - Corporate earnings reports have been better than pessimistic expectations, with 46% of companies exceeding earnings expectations by more than one standard deviation [5] - Retail investor buying is likely to remain strong unless unemployment rates begin to rise [5] - The corporate buyback window is expected to be robust, with an estimated $1.45 trillion authorized for buybacks and $11.6 trillion executed, providing market support during earnings season [5] Group 4: ETF Trading Dynamics - The proportion of ETF trading volume reached a high of 44% on April 9, currently around 35%, indicating reliance on ETFs for hedging [7] - A decline in ETF trading volume below 30% would suggest reduced hedging demand and an increase in risk appetite [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential shift of foreign investors away from U.S. Treasury bonds due to increasing uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies and the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts a narrowing growth gap between the U.S. and other developed economies, with U.S. growth rates expected to decline to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, while the Eurozone is projected to experience a growth acceleration in 2026 [1][2] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and the dollar has changed significantly, resembling emerging market patterns where stock market declines coincide with dollar weakness [1] Group 1 - Foreign investors may reduce their allocation to U.S. assets and increase currency hedging ratios, putting further pressure on the dollar [2] - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at approximately $27 trillion, remains unmatched in depth and liquidity compared to potential alternatives like German or Japanese government bonds [3] - Despite rising concerns boosting the relative attractiveness of the euro and yen, the lack of comparable scale and liquidity in alternative markets makes it difficult for foreign investors to exit the U.S. Treasury market en masse [3]

国内 1. 高盛：预计美元还会进一步下跌。 2. 摩根大通：美联储降息将给美债带来巨大机遇。 3. 德银下调美国股指年底目标，警告关税潜在影响。 1. 中信证券：充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心。 2. 中信证券：钨矿开采指标收紧，钨价中枢有望上行。 3. 中信建投：当前燃料电池车板块预期较弱，5-6月旺季可能出现销量向上拐点。 4. 华泰证券：互联网金融平台行业估值性价比凸显。 5. 华泰证券：一季度金融股仓位有所下行，把握结构机会。 6. 国金证券：医药板块具备良好的抗风险能力和成长进攻能力。 7. 招商证券：MLF净投放为银行补中期流动性，后续仍可能降准提供长期资金。 金十数据整理：每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-04-25） 国外 ...

近日，白宫迎来了一位风云人物：Michael Grimes，前摩根士丹利IPO大佬，曾主导Facebook、Uber、 Google等巨头的上市，堪称科技界"卖票王"。 《华尔街日报》24日报道称，他现出任特朗普"美国投资加速器"（U.S. Investment Accelerator）负责 人，负责为有大规模投资意愿的企业提供"一对一"服务，特别是那些投资规模超过10亿美元的公司。这 个办公室是特朗普"美国优先"战略的核心组成部分，旨在推动制造业回归，减少进口依赖。 重要的是，Grimes与特朗普的关系不仅是"招商军师"那么简单，他还与马斯克关系密切，曾协助后者完 成买下Twitter。 这一举措或标志着美国政府正式涉足投资引导，也意味着特朗普团队正试图借助顶级投行业务经验，重 新塑造美国金融和产业格局。 路线图显示，该机构只对那些承诺在美国投入10亿美元以上的企业开放，重点在大型总额超过1亿美元 的国内项目。 作为IPO银行家，Grimes过去的工作与他将在华盛顿担任的角色颇为相似：当公司上市时，他们必须说 服公众投资者购买其业务的股份。银行家帮助高管们完善销售宣传，并将他们介绍给能开出最大支票的 基金经 ...