(原油) 昨夜油价纷纷冲高，SC一度涨近7%，随后盘中回吐大幅涨幅。美国总统特朗普称正考虑对伊朗发动 新的重大打击，未作出最终决定。伊外交部长阿拉格齐同日表示，伊朗随时准备对侵犯行为作出回 应。市场担忧伊朗对其邻国发起反击或甚至关闭霍尔木兹海峡。欧盟理事会29日发布公报说，决定 对伊朗内政部长伊斯坎德尔。莫梅尼等15名官员和6个实体实施制裁，并已决定将伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 队列为恐怖组织。泽连斯基表示就能源基础设施达成的停火将从29日夜间开始生效。地缘局势走向 扑朔迷离叠加基本面累库压制仍在,警惕油价大幅波动风险。 【责金属】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅接近10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一 周，美伊依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击。此外特朗普即将公布美联储主席人选并呼吁 太幅降息，美国政府面临再度关门风险。短期市场信息繁杂，市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参 与。 (铜) 周四全日铜价剧烈波动，伦铜盘中最大涨幅超过10%，兑现部分海外机构1.4万美元及以上目标位。 铜价由资金与情绪引导,关注今日国内现货与贴水幅度,现货价差已转为 ...

1月29日，有社交媒体发布信息，称"古巴国家石油公司与旅游部联合通知，因燃油严重 短缺，将暂停向公众供应燃料，并优先保障旅游业、医疗卫生等关键部门"。 古巴官方曾谴责此类不实信息是美国对古巴发动媒体战与网络战、企图破坏古巴稳定的手 段之一。 来源：央视新闻客户端 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 责编丨李慧颖 古巴官方辟谣燃油断供传言：加油站未暂停销售。 当地时间1月29日获悉，针对社交媒体上出现的"古巴燃油供应中断"传言，古巴国家石油 公司当天发表声明予以驳斥， 明确表示国内加油站燃料供应正常，并未暂停销售 ，同时 建议民众通过其官方网站获取最新资讯。该声明也得到古巴能源和矿产部的转发支持。 ...

Core Insights - International oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and the interplay of soft power dynamics, particularly following Trump's statements regarding military actions towards Iran [1][2][3] - The current oil price situation reflects a struggle between soft power (geopolitical factors) and hard power (inventory and production policies), with soft power currently dominating the market [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - Trump's announcement of a "large fleet heading towards Iran" has heightened concerns over the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums [2][3] - The U.S. has increased its naval presence in the Middle East, with six destroyers and additional naval assets deployed, which further escalates tensions in the region [2] Market Reactions - As of January 29, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose by $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, marking a 3.50% increase, while Brent crude oil futures increased by $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% rise [2] - The unexpected decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of an increase, has also contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices [2] OPEC's Role - OPEC has maintained its production cut policy, choosing not to increase output despite rising oil prices, which supports the current price levels [1][3] - The strategy of OPEC is seen as a form of "asymmetric soft power," aimed at reinforcing its authority in the industry and undermining the competitiveness of U.S. shale oil [4] Short-term Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to remain strong, influenced by geopolitical risks and potential military actions, with any escalation likely to push prices higher [3][4]

智通财经获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的军事 或政治干预威胁，以及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供应 流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪走 火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将创下自2023年7月份以来最大规模 的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美 元上方区域，不过之后不久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破70美 元与略上方徘徊。与此同时，已经下跌多日的美元指数则显著反弹，对大宗商品价格造成重大压制力。 而北美原油定价基准——西德克萨斯中质原油(即WTI原油)期货价格则接近65美元。美国总统特朗普的 最新表态已从因德黑兰对抗议者的致命镇压而计划军事惩罚伊朗，转向本周寻求达成一项新的核协议， 然而双方谈妥的概率仍然非常低。 尽管市场仍然预期2026至2027年全球原油供应增加的同时需求可能将持续萎靡，将对不断国际油价形成 下行压力，但是特朗普政府对伊朗的持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bullish on oil prices; Medium - term: Bearish on oil prices, suggesting a short - position allocation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The situation in Iran has flared up again. The US and some Middle - Eastern countries are considering imposing a maritime oil blockade on Iran, which, if implemented, would seriously affect the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical and macro factors are driving up oil prices, but there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals, and oil prices have been volatile recently [2] 3. Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data - On January 30, the Trump administration issued a general license to expand the operating capacity of oil companies in Venezuela, marking a significant step in the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela. The US Treasury's license covers various activities related to Venezuelan crude oil [1] - On January 29, Iran warned commercial vessels of a planned live - fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz early next week, which could impact shipping on this crucial oil - transport route that accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation [1] - On January 29, Reliance Industries suspended Russian crude oil imports in January for the first time since 2022 and will resume importing about 150,000 barrels per day from February. It has increased oil purchases from the Middle East, West Africa, Brazil, and the US to make up for the shortfall [1] - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.5% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.98% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] Investment Logic - The Iranian situation has flared up again. The US is considering an oil blockade on Iran, similar to that on Venezuela. This has led to a more than 5% intraday increase in oil prices. Geopolitical and macro factors are driving up oil prices, but there is no substantial improvement in fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: The drivers of oil prices are strong, and the combination of macro sentiment and geopolitics is pushing up oil prices. Medium - term: Bearish on oil prices, suggesting a short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a macro black - swan event occurs [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control has issued a general license that relaxes sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry, allowing certain transactions related to Venezuelan oil [1]. Group 1: License Details - U.S. entities are authorized to engage in transportation, export, sale, and storage of oil sourced from Venezuela with the Venezuelan government or entities holding 50% or more of the Venezuelan National Oil Company [1]. - Transactions must comply with U.S. law, and payments must be made to the Foreign Government Deposit Funds or other accounts designated by the U.S. Treasury [1]. - The license does not permit debt swaps or payments through gold, Venezuelan government-issued digital currencies, or tokens [1]. Group 2: Reporting Requirements - Entities exporting, selling, or providing Venezuelan oil to countries outside the U.S. must report details such as parties involved, quantities, amounts, destinations, transaction dates, and taxes paid to the Venezuelan government to U.S. authorities [1]. Group 3: Context of Sanctions - The U.S. has implemented multiple rounds of stringent sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry in recent years, with policy adjustments made through licenses issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control [2]. - The U.S. aims to protect Venezuelan oil revenues stored in U.S. Treasury accounts from being seized or entangled in legal proceedings [2].

在成品油方面，记者从会上了解到，2025年，我国成品油市场需求整体维持疲弱态势，据行业监测，全 年成品油消费量3.78亿吨，同比减少2.9%；成品油产量4.14亿吨，同比减少2.4%。 新华财经北京1月30日电（记者安娜）今年入冬以来，我国"冷暖转换"频繁，北方地区冷空气活跃度加 剧，出现多轮阶段性强寒潮天气，能源保供情况如何？国家能源局电力司副司长刘明阳30日在国家能源 局新闻发布会上给出详细解答。 他在会上提供的数据显示，2026年1月4日，全国最大电力负荷达到13.51亿千瓦，今冬首创冬季负荷历 史新高；1月19日、20日、21日，受大范围寒潮天气影响，全国最大电力负荷连续三天创冬季新高，首 次突破14亿千瓦，1月21日最高达14.33亿千瓦。今年入冬以来，华北、西北、东北3个区域电网和新 疆、西藏等14个省级电网负荷累计86次创历史新高。 "国家能源局认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，督促指导各地、有关能源企业全力确保能源电力 供应平稳有序。"刘明阳说，目前，全国燃料储备充足、电力供应平稳，东北等重点保暖地区电厂存煤 超25天。 他在会上提供的数据还显示，1月27日，全国统调电厂电煤库存2.2亿吨， ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - International precious metals futures experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices initially plummeting before recovering, ultimately closing with gains of over 1% for both COMEX gold and silver [1] - At one point, spot silver fell by 8%, and spot gold dropped below $5,200 per ounce [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with technology stocks experiencing divergent trends; Meta surged by 10%, while Microsoft fell by over 10% due to slowing cloud business growth [4][6] - Chinese online education stocks mostly rose, with TAL Education Group increasing by over 18% following better-than-expected earnings [4][8] Group 3: Fund Market Activity - Multiple funds announced a collective suspension of trading starting January 30, following a strong performance in resource-related LOFs, including oil and silver funds [9][10] - The price of WTI crude oil reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025, driven by heightened geopolitical risks and inflation expectations [14] Group 4: Fund Subscription Limits - Starting January 30, several funds, including those managed by Huashan and GF Fund, significantly reduced their daily subscription limits to as low as 2 yuan, effectively restricting large investments [15][20] - The high premium rates in the secondary market prompted warnings from fund managers about potential risks associated with blind investments [17][18]

据追风交易台，在"原油将迎来史诗级过剩"的共识声浪中，巴克莱给出了一个明显逆市场的判断：眼下市场所担忧的供给过剩， 规模被高估、持续时间被夸大，而真正重要的变化，发生在2026年之后。 在巴克莱看来，当前并不是原油熊市的起点，而更像是多年上行周期前的"最后一次情绪错配"。 市场为何会误判？"过剩叙事"本身就站不住脚 过去一年，市场反复引用 IEA、EIA 的供需预测，认为 2026 年全球原油市场将出现 00–400 万桶/日的供给过剩。但巴克莱强调， 如果过剩真实存在，应当首先反映在库存之中。 然而，现实数据并不支持这一判断，巴克莱认为，现实数据并不支持这一判断。 第一，所谓"4百万桶/日过剩"，在现实中根本没有出现。 无论是陆上商业库存，还是海上浮仓、在途原油，都明显低于这些模型所暗示的水平。价格本身也给出了答案——布 伦特油价并未跌入市场反复预期的40–50美元区间，而是表现出明显韧性。 巴克莱指出，市场并非在"算错供给"，而是在系统性低估需求的绝对水平。不同机构对2026年原油需求的"起点"本 身，差异就高达200万桶/日以上。所谓"缺失的桶"，并没有消失，而是被统计口径和数据滞后掩盖了。 第三，炼厂 ...

古巴官方曾谴责此类不实信息是美国对古巴发动媒体战与网络战、企图破坏古巴稳定的手段之一。（总台记者 史 跃） 29日，有社交媒体发布信息，称"古巴国家石油公司与旅游部联合通知，因燃油严重短缺，将暂停向公众供应燃 料，并优先保障旅游业、医疗卫生等关键部门"。 总台记者当地时间1月29日获悉，针对社交媒体上出现的"古巴燃油供应中断"传言，古巴国家石油公司当天发表声 明予以驳斥，明确表示国内加油站燃料供应正常，并未暂停销售，同时建议民众通过其官方网站获取最新资讯。 该声明也得到古巴能源和矿产部的转发支持。 ...