食品饮料/休闲食品 万辰集团（300972.SZ） 门店持续拓展，经营效率提升 2025 年 08 月 29 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/29 | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 211.80 | | | 一年最高最低(元) | 211.80/29.02 | | | 总市值(亿元) | 397.37 | | | 流通市值(亿元) | 346.17 | | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.88 | | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.63 | | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 99.51 | | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 万辰集团 沪深300 相关研究报告 《收入延续高增，利润释放亮眼—公 司信息更新报告》-2025.4.30 《规模效应释能，门店量质双升—公 司信息更新报告》-2025.4.24 《切入零食量贩赛道，迈向高增长新 篇章—公司首次覆盖报告》-2025.1.6 张宇光（分析师 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ganyuan Food [5][9]. Core Views - Ganyuan Food is currently undergoing a transformation period, facing pressure on its performance, but new channels and products are expected to drive recovery [12]. - The company reported a revenue of 945 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.34%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 55.20% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution channels and enhancing product offerings to improve future performance [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Ganyuan Food's revenue was 945 million yuan, a decrease of 9.34% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 75 million yuan, down 55.20% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter alone saw revenue of approximately 441 million yuan, a decline of 3.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 70.96% year-on-year [1]. Product Category Performance - The performance of various product categories was mixed, with the comprehensive nut and bean series revenue at 273 million yuan, down 19.92% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory accumulation and the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1]. - The green pea series generated 234 million yuan, down 1.56%, while the broad bean series saw a revenue increase of 2.11% to 125 million yuan, driven by new products [1]. Channel Performance - The distribution channels showed significant differentiation, with revenue from the distribution channel at 696 million yuan, down 19.84% year-on-year, while e-commerce revenue increased by 12.42% to 153 million yuan [2]. - The company is shifting from traditional distribution to direct sales, which is expected to enhance profitability in the long term [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 33.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in channel structure and rising palm oil prices [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased significantly due to higher marketing and new product promotion costs, but it is anticipated that these expenses will stabilize as the peak season approaches [3]. Future Outlook - Ganyuan Food is in a transitional phase, with expectations for gradual improvement in revenue and profitability as channel optimization and new product launches take effect [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 254 million yuan, 372 million yuan, and 439 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.73 yuan, 3.99 yuan, and 4.71 yuan [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ganyuan Food [5][9]. Core Views - Ganyuan Food is currently undergoing a transformation period, facing pressure on its performance, but new channels and products are expected to drive recovery [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 945 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.34%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 55.20% [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Ganyuan Food's revenue was 945 million yuan, a decrease of 9.34% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 75 million yuan, down 55.20%, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 64 million yuan, down 56.01% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved approximately 441 million yuan in revenue, a decline of 3.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 70.96% [1]. Product Category Performance - The performance of various product categories showed significant divergence, with the comprehensive nut and bean series revenue at 273 million yuan, down 19.92% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory accumulation and the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1]. - The green pea series generated 234 million yuan, down 1.56%, while the broad bean series saw a revenue increase of 2.11% to 125 million yuan, driven by new products [1]. Channel Performance - The distribution channel revenue was 696 million yuan, a decline of 19.84% year-on-year, primarily due to the shift from traditional distribution to direct sales [2]. - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 12.42% to 153 million yuan, driven by significant growth on platforms like Douyin [2]. - Direct sales and other channels saw a substantial increase of 154.63%, indicating strong growth potential during the transition period [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 33.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in channel structure and rising palm oil prices [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 18.56%, up 5.27 percentage points year-on-year, due to higher marketing and new product promotion expenses [3]. Future Outlook - The company is in a phase of business adjustment and transformation, with expectations of revenue and profit fluctuations in the short term. However, as channels are optimized and new products gain traction, performance is anticipated to gradually recover [3][4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 254 million, 372 million, and 439 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.73, 3.99, and 4.71 yuan [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 62.4 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing sustained operational prosperity and improved efficiency, with clear growth drivers for the future. The second quarter of 2025 showed resilience in earnings despite cost fluctuations, and the long-term profit margin is expected to continue to improve [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,835 million yuan in 2024 to 5,534 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 15.1%, 12.4%, and 11.5% respectively [1]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 268 million yuan in 2024 to 526 million yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates of 266.9%, 31.2%, 23.0%, and 21.6% respectively [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.58 yuan in 2024 to 3.10 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 31 times in 2024 to 16 times in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [1]. Operational Insights - **Revenue Growth Drivers**: - The company benefited from high growth in products such as cream and sauces, with Q2 2025 revenue increasing by 18.4% year-on-year. The revenue from various product segments showed diverse growth rates, with sauces growing by 36.5% and other baking ingredients by 63.8% [5]. - **Cost Management**: - Despite a decline in gross margin due to rising raw material costs, the company has optimized its cost structure, leading to improved profitability in Q2 2025. The gross margin was reported at 30.7%, with a slight recovery from Q1 [5][6]. - **Efficiency Improvements**: - The company has focused on enhancing production line management and R&D efficiency, which has contributed to a significant portion of revenue from new products. The management's efforts in cost control have also been evident, with reductions in various expense ratios [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company has shown robust revenue growth and continuous improvement in operational quality, with a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.20% [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the baking industry and the diversification of sales channels, with projected revenues of 4.46 billion yuan, 5.04 billion yuan, and 5.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 11% [5][6] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2023 was 3.50 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 3.83 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth to 4.46 billion yuan in 2025 [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 268 million yuan in 2024 to 343 million yuan in 2025, and 408 million yuan in 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of 28% for 2025 [3][6] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 30.35%, with a net profit margin of 8.25%, showing an improvement in profitability despite a slight decrease in gross margin compared to the previous year [5] Product and Channel Performance - The revenue structure indicates that frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 55% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of about 6%, while baking ingredients (cream, sauces, etc.) contributed around 45% with a growth of over 30% [5] - The company has successfully launched new products in key retail channels, achieving nearly 30% growth in supermarket sales, and over 40% growth in innovative channels such as restaurants and new retail [5] Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.58 yuan in 2025 to 2.79 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.9, 20.0, and 17.3 for the respective years [3][6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][19]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.20%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 171 million yuan, up 26.24% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company has seen strong performance in cream and sauce products, contributing to improved profitability [3][12]. - The company is actively adapting to channel changes and enhancing product offerings to meet market demands, focusing on major retail clients and new product launches [12][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the gross profit margin was 30.4%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and declining margins in cream and sauce categories [2][10]. - The sales and management expense ratios decreased to 10.6% and 5.6%, respectively, both down approximately 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost management [2][10]. - The net profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 8.2% in the first half of 2025 [2][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.41 billion, 4.90 billion, and 5.35 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.1%, 11.0%, and 9.3% [3][14]. - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 340 million, 400 million, and 450 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.4%, 19.5%, and 11.9% [3][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.98, 2.37, and 2.65 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][14]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on leveraging its strengths in cream and sauce products while expanding its presence in supermarkets and new retail channels [12][3]. - The company has established partnerships with several major retail chains to supply a variety of products, including tea drinks and ice cream [12][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a bottoming out of its store business and is actively exploring new strategies to adapt to changing consumer demands [8] - Despite revenue pressures, the company is focusing on optimizing its operational structure and enhancing service quality through digital tools [8] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit in the coming years, with projections of 402.48 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.21% [1][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,261 million yuan, with a decline to 6,117 million yuan in 2025, followed by a gradual recovery [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 344.31 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 402.48 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.57 yuan in 2023 to 0.66 yuan in 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.74 in 2023 to 24.59 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1] Operational Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.20 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 15.57% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 40.71% decline [8] - The revenue from fresh products, packaged products, and franchise management showed mixed results, with fresh products declining by 19.15% [8] - The company is actively exploring segmented consumer scenarios and developing a regional strategy to cater to diverse market preferences [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and an improving profitability trend, despite facing challenges in certain product categories and external market conditions [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 25.36 billion, 27.58 billion, and 30.23 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.45 billion, 3.33 billion, and 3.84 billion RMB [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 1H2025, the company reported revenue of 1.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 0.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.44 billion RMB, down 36.27% year-on-year [7] - The revenue breakdown shows that fish products generated 0.76 billion RMB (up 7.61%), poultry products 0.20 billion RMB (down 24.00%), and bean products 0.12 billion RMB (up 3.61%) [7] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 1H2025 were 29.45% and 10.02%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [7] - The company’s operating expenses have increased, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios rising year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings for the company are as follows: - Revenue: 2,536 million RMB in 2025, 2,758 million RMB in 2026, and 3,023 million RMB in 2027 - Net profit: 245 million RMB in 2025, 333 million RMB in 2026, and 384 million RMB in 2027 - EPS is expected to be 0.54 RMB in 2025, 0.74 RMB in 2026, and 0.85 RMB in 2027 [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be 23.3 in 2025, 17.1 in 2026, and 14.8 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][8] - The ROE is expected to be 16.2% in 2025, 20.3% in 2026, and 21.5% in 2027, suggesting strong returns on equity [6][8]

Group 1 - The leisure food sector increased by 4.4% on August 29, with Wancheng Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99% [1] - Key stocks in the leisure food sector showed significant price increases, with Wancheng Group rising by 20.00% to a closing price of 211.80 [1] Group 2 - The leisure food sector experienced a net outflow of 251 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 178 million yuan [2] - Notable declines were observed in stocks such as Haoxiangni, which fell by 3.36%, and Youyou Food, which decreased by 3.22% [2] - The trading volume for the leisure food sector was substantial, with Wancheng Group achieving a transaction amount of 1.696 billion yuan [1][2] Group 3 - The net inflow of funds varied among individual stocks, with Guangzhou Restaurant experiencing a net outflow of 13.26 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Salted Fish and other stocks showed mixed results in terms of fund inflows, indicating varied investor sentiment [3] - The overall market dynamics reflect a complex interplay between institutional and retail investor behaviors within the leisure food sector [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 171 million yuan, up 26.24% year-on-year [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product matrix, particularly in the cream product segment, which has shown significant growth [10] - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3,499 million yuan in 2023, 3,835 million yuan in 2024, 4,457 million yuan in 2025, 5,017 million yuan in 2026, and 5,515 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.22%, 9.61%, 16.20%, 12.58%, and 9.93% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 73.03 million yuan in 2023, 267.97 million yuan in 2024, 363.64 million yuan in 2025, 440.34 million yuan in 2026, and 504.07 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -49.21%, 266.94%, 35.70%, 21.09%, and 14.47% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.43 yuan in 2023, 1.58 yuan in 2024, 2.15 yuan in 2025, 2.60 yuan in 2026, and 2.98 yuan in 2027 [1] Product and Channel Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from various product segments was as follows: frozen baked goods 1.13 billion yuan, cream 560 million yuan, fruit products 80 million yuan, sauces 140 million yuan, and other baking materials 150 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 28.7%, 7.7%, 36.5%, and 63.8% respectively [10] - The distribution channels showed that the circulation channel accounted for nearly 50% of revenue, remaining stable year-on-year, while the supermarket channel's revenue share was about 30%, increasing nearly 30% year-on-year [10]