我们不是资讯的搬运工 而是有态度的发现者 万和财富早班车 2025年5月7日 ● 国内金融市场 · | | | 1 韦尔股份(603501)：聚焦CIS及车载芯片赛道，核心驱动力为汽 车智能化渗透加速(车载CIS收入占图像传感器业务超80%)及高端 手机多摄升级，车载模拟芯片收入同比增37%。 | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3316.11 | 1.13% | 上证当月连续 | 2645. 8 | 0.62% | | 深证成指 10082.34 | | 1.84% | 沪深当月连续 | 3797. 6 | 1.1% | | 创业板指 | 1986. 41 | 1.97% | 恒生期货指数 | 28918. 62 | 0. 49% | 宏观消息汇总 1.工业和信息化部称, 下一步将加强通用大模型和行业大模型 研发布局,加快建设工业领域高质量数据集。 2 据商务部商务大数据监测,假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销 售额同比增长6.3%。 3.第137届广交会多项指标刷新历史纪录，现场意向出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry investment strategy for May 2025 highlights a positive economic outlook driven by proactive fiscal policies and increased domestic consumption confidence, alongside a growing global interest in China's artificial intelligence sector [1][2]. Economic Overview - Since late September 2024, a series of domestic policies have been implemented, leading to a noticeable effect on the economy. In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion RMB, marking a 5% increase from the previous year [2]. - In Q1 2025, China's GDP at current prices was 31,875.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% at constant prices, indicating steady economic growth [2]. Policy Environment - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies in response to escalating US-China trade tensions and external uncertainties. The focus will be on expanding consumption and boosting domestic demand [2]. Industry Performance - In April 2025, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing production index fell to 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3]. - Despite a drop in international oil prices by over 15% in April due to increased production by OPEC and trade tensions, the expected price range for Brent crude is projected to be between $65-70 per barrel and WTI at $60-65 per barrel for 2025 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key investment areas for May 2025 include potassium fertilizers, refrigerants, aramid paper, civil explosives, and pentaerythritol, with specific companies recommended for each sector: - **Potassium Fertilizers**: Global prices are rebounding, and there is a domestic demand gap. Recommended company: **Yaqi International** [4]. - **Refrigerants**: The market outlook is positive due to tightening long-term quotas and increased air conditioning production. Recommended companies: **Juhua Co.** and **Sanmei Co.** [4][7]. - **Aramid Paper**: Demand is increasing due to applications in electrical insulation and honeycomb core materials. Recommended company: **Tongyi Zhong** [4]. - **Civil Explosives**: The industry is experiencing improved profitability due to stable demand and declining costs. Recommended company: **Guangdong Hongda** [5]. - **Pentaerythritol**: Anticipated price increases due to low inventory levels and high demand from the PCB sector [5]. Investment Portfolio - The investment portfolio for this month includes: - **Yaqi International**: A rare potassium fertilizer producer with expanding capacity - **Bailong Chuangyuan**: A long-term growth "small giant" in functional sugars - **Tongyi Zhong**: A company with a full industrial chain layout for UHMWPE fibers - **Guangdong Hongda**: A leading integrated service provider in the civil explosives sector [6].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 06 日 活性染料、PTA 价格涨幅居前，建议关注机器人相关化工材料 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 5 月第 1 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 5 月第 1 周化工板块（申万）下跌 0.50%，上证 A 指下跌 0.49%，板块落后 大盘 0.02 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：渝三峡 A（+47.17%）， 华阳新材（+26.87%），南京化纤（+13.28%），上海家化（+10.89%）， 利民股份（+8.92%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：新金路（-27.29%）， 金力泰（-25.96%），尤夫股份（-24.11%），凯美特气（-19.02%），ST 宏达（-18.54%）。此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 24.05 倍，低于 2015 年来的平均 PE 11.90%。 细分子行业走势 5 月第 1 周化工行业 15 个子行业上涨，16 个子行业下跌。上涨子行业前五 是：日用化学产品（+8.85%），氟化工及制冷剂（+4.05%），石油贸 ...

化工板块一季报总结及 5 月投资策略 20250505 摘要 • 振华股份一季度归母净利润同比增长 37%，预计二季度业绩将大幅增长， 主要受益于金属铬需求旺盛及价格上涨，产能扩张后年化利润或达 15-16 亿元。建议关注其独立逻辑带来的高弹性。 • 制冷剂行业近期市场表现超预期，龙头企业如巨化、三美等净利润大幅增 长，毛利率显著提升。制冷剂被定义为刚需产品，龙头企业掌握定价权， 且需求稳定，未来仍有巨大潜力。 • 农化板块整体表现强劲，受益于成本端支撑和出口需求带动，相关企业业 绩同比增长。建议关注出口政策对磷铵的影响，以及扬农化工等龙头企业 通过提升开工负荷实现业绩增长。 • 涤纶长丝行业一季度业绩良好，但面临油价下跌和关税政策不确定性带来 的压力。随着原油价格触底及关税政策缓和，市场弹性可能增加，建议关 注油价走势。 • 大炼化板块公司如荣盛、恒力一季度利润环比改善明显，受益于原油裂解 价差回升。低原油价格对下游需求有正反馈，有助于降低成本，提高利润。 关注恒力和荣盛在炼化一体化领域的表现。 Q&A 如何评价 2025 年化工板块的整体表现及其未来趋势？ 2025 年化工板块整体处于筑底阶段，受宏观经济 ...

Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.10% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 903 million yuan, up 39.47% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin was 26.83%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.04%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] Operational Analysis - The performance exceeded expectations, with significant improvement in profitability. The expense ratios for sales, management, finance, and R&D were 1.87%, 6.01%, 0.01%, and 4.69%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease in sales and management expenses [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 468 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 333.66%, primarily driven by increased cash receipts from sales of goods and services [2] Future Outlook - In the refrigeration and air conditioning components business, the company is the largest manufacturer globally, benefiting from climate change and energy-saving policies, leading to steady growth in this segment [3] - In the automotive components business, the company has strong ties with leading automakers such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and BYD, with continued growth driven by the high demand in the new energy vehicle sector [3] - The robotics business is progressing steadily, with plans for overseas capacity expansion and potential contributions from Tesla's humanoid robot expected to enhance future performance [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.805 billion, 35.629 billion, and 44.536 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 10.23%, 15.66%, and 25.00% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.680 billion, 4.298 billion, and 5.526 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 18.73%, 16.79%, and 28.59% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Group 1: Industry Overview - China's building energy consumption accounted for 44.8% of the total national energy consumption in 2022, with carbon emissions from the building sector making up 48.3% of national energy-related carbon emissions [2] - Only about 3%-5% of newly constructed buildings each year are energy-efficient, with air conditioning, lighting, and power facilities consuming nearly 80% of the energy [2] - The building energy-saving market in China has seen an average annual growth rate of over 15% in the past five years, with expectations to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029, indicating significant market potential [5] Group 2: Policy and Targets - By 2025, the building sector aims to have a more robust energy-saving and carbon reduction system, with new ultra-low energy buildings increasing by over 20 million square meters compared to 2023, and existing building energy-saving renovations increasing by over 200 million square meters [4] - Policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development" emphasize the importance of smart energy-saving technologies and the promotion of ultra-low energy and near-zero energy buildings [2][4] Group 3: Technological Innovations - Hitachi has introduced the SET-FREE RIII series multi-split air conditioning units, which utilize new pressure control technology to reduce renovation costs and improve energy efficiency [6][7] - The SET-FREE Extreme series employs high-efficiency heat recovery technology, achieving energy savings of 30%-70% compared to traditional methods, and is designed for various industrial applications [7] - Hitachi has completed its digital transformation, achieving breakthroughs in AI energy optimization and zero-carbon algorithm models, with a goal to reduce carbon emissions across its product lifecycle by 41% and production emissions by 16% [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported sales of $5.2 billion with 2% organic sales growth, including about 2 points from price increases [15][16] - Adjusted EPS was $0.65, up 27% year over year, driven by strong productivity performance [17][18] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $420 million, stronger than expected, driven by higher net income and lower capital expenditures [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Climate Solutions Americas (CSA) segment had organic sales growth of 9%, with residential and commercial sales up around 20% each [19][20] - Climate Solutions Europe (CSE) saw organic sales down 7%, with mid-single-digit growth in commercial offset by a decline in residential light commercial [21] - Climate Solutions Asia, Middle East, and Africa (CS AME) experienced a 6% decline in organic sales, primarily due to weakness in residential China [23] - Transportation segment's organic sales were up 2%, driven by a 20% increase in container sales [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company backlog was up about 10% year over year and 15% sequentially [4] - Organic orders momentum continued, with high single-digit growth across most segments except CS AME, where orders were down [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving sustained growth through differentiated products, aftermarket services, and systems [5][6] - A new partnership with Google was announced to enhance grid resilience and support smarter energy management [8] - The company is committed to mitigating tariff exposure through supply chain and productivity actions, with a balance of $300 million via price increases [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving mid-single-digit organic sales growth for the full year, with adjusted EPS guidance increased to $3 to $3.1 [13][28] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, but the company is focused on customer needs and investing in differentiation [13][28] Other Important Information - The company is on track to achieve over $200 million in cost synergies by the end of next year [10] - The new German coalition government supports heat pump subsidies and infrastructure investments, which is expected to boost demand [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation of Q2 guidance and EPS expectations - Management confirmed expectations of mid-single-digit organic growth and sales of about $6 billion for Q2, with adjusted EPS growth close to 20% [30][31] Question: Insights on the Americas segment performance - The residential side is expected to see high single-digit to low double-digit growth, while light commercial is projected to decline by about 10% for the full year [38][40] Question: Clarification on tariffs and pricing impact - The company has effectively mitigated most tariff impacts, with $300 million remaining to be offset through pricing [35][114] Question: Update on Viasman and margin expectations - Management expects Viasman to remain flat for the year, with margin improvement anticipated in the low teens [55][59] Question: Dynamics of free cash flow in the quarter - Free cash flow was stronger than typical for Q1, driven by lower working capital use [104][105] Question: Service business growth and initiatives - The service business is expected to continue double-digit growth, with initiatives to harmonize operations globally [106][110]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported sales of $5.2 billion with 2% organic sales growth, including about 2 points from price increases [16][17] - Adjusted EPS was $0.65, up 27% year over year, driven by strong productivity performance [18] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $420 million, stronger than expected due to higher net income and lower capital expenditures [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Climate Solutions Americas (CSA) segment had organic sales growth of 9%, with residential and commercial sales up around 20% each [19][20] - The Climate Solutions Europe (CSE) segment saw organic sales down 7%, with mid single-digit growth in commercial offset by a 10% decline in residential light commercial [21] - The Climate Solutions Asia, Middle East, and Africa (CS AME) segment experienced a 6% decline in organic sales, primarily due to weakness in residential China [23] - The Commercial Systems Transportation (CST) segment had organic sales up 2%, driven by a 20% increase in container sales [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company backlog was up about 10% year over year and 15% sequentially [6] - Organic orders momentum continued with high single-digit growth across most segments, except for CS AME [25] - In the Americas, organic sales growth is expected to pick up in the second quarter, with mid-teens growth anticipated [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving sustained growth through differentiated products, aftermarket services, and systems integration [7][8] - A new partnership with Google aims to enhance grid resilience and support smarter energy management [10] - The company is committed to mitigating tariff exposure through supply chain and productivity actions, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving mid-single-digit organic sales growth for the full year, with strong margin expansion and close to 20% adjusted EPS growth anticipated [28] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, but the company is focused on customer needs and investing in differentiation [15][14] - Management noted that the new German coalition government supports climate goals, which is expected to drive demand for heat pumps [12] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $1.3 billion worth of shares in the quarter and plans to target $3 billion in share repurchases for 2025 [19] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 10% compared to last year, driven by strong productivity and pricing [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation of Q2 guidance and EPS - Management confirmed expectations of mid-single-digit organic growth and approximately $6 billion in sales for Q2, with adjusted EPS growth close to 20% [30][31] Question: Insights on the Americas segment performance - Management indicated that residential sales in the Americas are expected to be strong, with a potential increase in guidance for the full year [40][41] Question: Clarification on tariffs and pricing impact - Management stated that they have effectively mitigated most tariff impacts, with $300 million remaining to be offset through pricing [35][119] Question: Update on Viasman and margin expectations - Management expects Viasman to remain flat for the year, with margin improvements anticipated as the business integrates [58][63] Question: Discussion on commercial HVAC business growth - Management highlighted strong growth in the commercial HVAC sector, particularly in data centers, and noted that capacity increases have allowed for more aggressive sales efforts [66][123] Question: Inquiry about inventory levels and pre-buy effects - Management acknowledged elevated inventory levels but indicated that movement has been strong, with careful monitoring of distributor inventory [99][127]

Core Insights - Midea Group's Q1 2025 financial report shows total revenue of 128.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 38.0% year-on-year, indicating strong internal competitive strength [3][4] - The company is focusing on a "global breakthrough" strategy, with overseas e-commerce sales growing over 50% year-on-year and overseas revenue accounting for over 40% of total revenue, exceeding 20 billion USD [3][4] - Midea's global expansion strategy includes enhancing local operations through R&D, manufacturing, and marketing, with a goal to establish a "second home market" [4][9] Financial Performance - Midea Group reported a total revenue of 128.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 20.6% increase compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit for the same period was 12.4 billion yuan, marking a 38.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 9.9%, up 1.4 percentage points [3] - Overseas revenue reached over 200 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from e-commerce channels [3][4] Global Expansion Strategy - Midea has accelerated its global expansion since 2024, focusing on various sectors including home appliances, building technology, healthcare, and energy [4][9] - The company is leveraging AI technology for localized e-commerce operations, enhancing market insights and user engagement [4][6] - Midea has established new subsidiaries in Saudi Arabia and Thailand to strengthen its market presence [6][9] Product and Market Development - Midea's overseas e-commerce sales have seen a growth of over 50% year-on-year, driven by a combination of self-developed e-commerce data systems and AI technology [4][6] - The company has successfully launched products tailored to local markets, such as the Toshiba XFS series refrigerators in Japan and various kitchen appliances in Vietnam [6][8] - Midea is also focusing on enhancing user service efficiency, achieving a 15% improvement in service response times [6] Brand Strategy - Midea is utilizing sports marketing to enhance brand recognition globally, becoming official sponsors of various sports events [8] - The company aims to promote Chinese manufacturing and innovation through its branding efforts [8] Innovation and R&D - Midea's global patent applications exceeded 150,000 by the end of 2024, with over 90,000 patents granted, supporting its high-quality international operations [13] - The company is committed to integrating technology, culture, and user needs to drive high-quality development [13]

2025年4月30日，三花智控(002050.SZ)发布2025年第一季报。截至2025年4月30日，共有209个机构投资 者披露持有三花智控A股股份，合计持股量达22.31亿股，占三花智控总股本的59.76%。其中，前十大 机构投资者包括三花控股集团有限公司、浙江三花绿能实业集团有限公司、香港中央结算有限公司、中 国工商银行股份有限公司-华泰柏瑞沪深300交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、中国建设银行股份有限公 司-易方达沪深300交易型开放式指数发起式证券投资基金、科威特政府投资局、中国工商银行股份有限 公司-华夏沪深300交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、中国银行股份有限公司-嘉实沪深300交易型开放式 指数证券投资基金、中国人寿保险股份有限公司-传统-普通保险产品-005L-CT001沪、中国人寿保险股 份有限公司-传统-普通保险产品-005L-CT001沪，前十大机构投资者合计持股比例达52.59%。相较于上 一季度，前十大机构持股比例合计下跌了3.53个百分点。 公募基金方面，本期较上一期持股增加的公募基金共计57个，主要包括汇添富均衡增长混合、汇添富优 质成长混合A、汇添富高质量成长精选2年持有混合、平 ...