证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 4 月用电需求分析 全球第三座重水除氚设施启动建设 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 23 周周报（20250606） 联系人 分省看，4 月多省用电增速持续改善。云南、贵州、湖南、湖北、河北、山西与安徽六省 4 月单月用电增 速超过 7%；新疆用电负增长。从电量增速变动看，以 2025 年单 4 月用电增速与 2025 年 1-4 月用电增 速比较，多省用电增速有所改善，其中湖南（6.6pct）、湖北（5.3pct）、安徽（5.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][9][32] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing strong order growth, particularly from TSMC, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue this year [2][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain positioning and the identification of key players in the humanoid robot market, focusing on components such as joint modules, dexterous hands, and sensors [3][4] - AI infrastructure is projected to see continued capital expenditure growth driven by demand for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [3][4] Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the global launch of Grando's intelligent robots and the official release of the TianGong Robot 2.0, showcasing advancements in service robots [1][18] - The Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center has increased its registered capital to 460 million RMB, indicating strong investment in the sector [19] - The 2025 Global AI Technology Conference was held in Hangzhou, focusing on AI technology breakthroughs and industry trends [22] Company Dynamics - Key strategic partnerships have been formed, such as the collaboration between Kepler and ZhaoFeng Electromechanical, aimed at enhancing humanoid robot applications in industrial settings [24] - Other notable partnerships include the establishment of a smart sensing laboratory by Fulei New Materials and Tsinghua University, and a strategic agreement between Yujian Technology and YaoshiBang [25][26] Key Companies and Investment Focus - The report highlights several companies for investment consideration, including Longxi Co., JinDi Co., YiRui Technology, YingLiu Co., and DingYang Technology, all of which are positioned well within the humanoid robot supply chain [3] - Specific components and companies to watch include: - Joint modules: Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, Zhenyu Technology, and Lens Technology - Dexterous hands: Zhaowei Electromechanical, Leisai Intelligent, and Lens Technology - Reducers: Lide Harmony and JinDi Co. - Sensors: Hanwei Technology [3][4]

Group 1: Industry Development - The nuclear fusion industry is entering an accelerated development phase driven by funding support, policy backing, and technological breakthroughs [1] - In February 2023, China National Nuclear Power and Zhejiang Energy Power announced investments of 1 billion and 750 million yuan respectively in China Fusion Energy Co., indicating strong financial interest in the sector [1] - The National Energy Administration of China has committed to supporting the research and development of frontier technologies like nuclear fusion [1] Group 2: Project Acceleration - Domestic and international fusion projects are accelerating, with the Hefei BEST facility officially starting construction, expected to be completed by 2027 and potentially generating power by 2030 [2] - The CRAFT "Kua Fu" project, a key system for the Hefei fusion reactor, is in critical stages and is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2025 [2] - The "Spark One" project has completed its comprehensive review and is entering the funding and bidding phase, with a total investment exceeding 20 billion yuan and a technical goal of achieving a Q value greater than 30 [2] Group 3: Company Opportunities - Lianchuang Superconductor is expected to see a significant increase in orders, participating in the "Spark One" project with an estimated investment of over 20 billion yuan [2] - The company has secured a subcontract for the development and testing of superconducting coils for China National Nuclear Group, laying the groundwork for larger-scale magnet supply [2] - Lianchuang Superconductor has established a presence in various sectors including metal thermal processing, photovoltaics, semiconductors, and nuclear fusion, which is anticipated to drive substantial revenue growth [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 3.75 billion, 4.12 billion, and 4.62 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 10%, and 12% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 600 million, 770 million, and 990 million yuan, with growth rates of 150%, 27%, and 29% respectively [3] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 46, 36, and 28 times for 2025 to 2027 [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the nuclear fusion industry, specifically the power supply systems used in fusion devices, which constitute approximately 15% of the overall cost structure of fusion reactors [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Power Supply Systems**: The core components of the power supply systems are the magnet power supply and heating power supply. The magnet power supply is crucial for superconducting magnets, characterized by high current and low energy loss, with key players including Xuji Electric and others [1][2]. - **Heating Power Supply**: This system is essential for plasma heating, requiring high voltage, typically in the tens of kilovolts range. Companies involved include Sichuan Chuangxin Electronics and others [1][2]. - **Global Competition**: There is an active global push for nuclear fusion projects, with the U.S. accelerating approvals for new reactor types and China conducting laboratory and facility design tenders. This competitive landscape is expected to drive technological advancements and market opportunities [3][4]. - **Recent Market Performance**: The nuclear fusion sector has seen significant performance improvements due to U.S. administrative orders speeding up reactor approvals and advancements in key technologies. Despite potential short-term corrections, the long-term growth potential remains substantial [4]. Additional Important Content - **Power System Types**: The nuclear fusion industry utilizes two main types of power systems: pulsed power systems and steady-state power systems. The ITER project exemplifies this, with China responsible for the pulsed power component and the U.S. for the steady-state power component [5]. - **Superconducting Magnet Power Supply**: This power supply operates at high current (thousands of kVA) and low voltage (1 kVA), leveraging the near-zero resistance of superconducting magnets at low temperatures [6]. - **Heating Power Principles**: The heating power supply operates based on electromagnetic induction principles, generating eddy currents to heat plasma, but requires auxiliary heating to achieve the necessary temperatures for fusion [7][8]. - **Auxiliary Heating Technologies**: Two main types of auxiliary heating technologies are identified: Pulsed Step Modulation (PSM) and High Voltage Pulsed Supply (HVPS). The ITER project employs four auxiliary heating methods, including Ion Cyclotron Heating and Electron Cyclotron Heating [9][10]. - **Voltage Requirements**: Different heating methods have specific voltage requirements, with Ion Cyclotron Heating needing 18-27 kV, while Neutral Beam Injection requires up to 1,000 kV, indicating higher technical challenges and value in heating systems compared to magnet power supplies [12]. - **Key Companies to Watch**: Notable companies in the nuclear fusion sector include Sichuan Chuangxin Electronics, Yingjie Electronics, and Xuguang Electronics, which have significant roles in power supply and auxiliary equipment manufacturing. Other companies like Yinxing Energy and Xuji Group are also highlighted for their contributions to the industry [16].

Group 1 - The core issue of the recent stock market decline is the disconnect between speculative hype and industrial reality, particularly in the nuclear fusion sector [3][4] - Wangzi New Materials, once a "star stock" due to its involvement in nuclear fusion projects, faced a significant drop due to its minimal business contribution to the sector and concerns over its financial viability [3][4] - The exit of Mitsui Chemicals from the trifluoride business raised market concerns about the ability of domestic companies to secure orders, especially for those like Wangzi New Materials that are considered marginal players [3][4] Group 2 - The commercialization of nuclear fusion technology remains a distant goal, with significant technical challenges that need to be overcome before it can be realized [4] - Recent capital flows have favored more established sectors like energy storage and photovoltaics, leading to a rapid decline in nuclear fusion stocks as speculative enthusiasm wanes [4][5] - Misinterpretation of policies, such as the automatic emergency braking system (AEB), has led to misguided optimism in the nuclear fusion sector, highlighting the disconnect between different technological domains [6] Group 3 - Companies with genuine technological barriers and order visibility, like Western Superconducting Technologies, are more likely to survive the current market turbulence compared to those merely riding the hype [7] - The market correction serves as a cleansing mechanism, allowing companies with real technological advancements and strategic plans to emerge stronger [8] - Investors are advised to differentiate between true growth potential and mere concept-driven narratives, as many companies may lack the substantive capabilities to deliver on their claims [7][8]

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher with major indices showing a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3363.97 points, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices up 1.12% and 1.16% respectively, with over 4400 stocks in the market rising and more than 80 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Controlled Nuclear Fusion Concept - The controlled nuclear fusion concept continues to gain momentum, with Fuhuang Steel Structure's stock surging to the daily limit within three minutes of opening. The company announced a significant milestone in the construction of the compact fusion energy experimental device project (BEST), marking the completion of high-precision sliding installation of the first segment of the roof steel structure [2][4] - BEST is part of the EAST upgrade project and is recognized as one of the three core scientific devices in the Hefei Big Science City. The project employs an innovative construction design to tackle the challenges of installing large-span steel trusses [6] Autonomous Driving Concept - The autonomous driving concept saw a wave of stocks hitting the daily limit, with companies like Sanyou Technology and Wanma Technology achieving gains of 30% and 19.99% respectively. Approximately 20 stocks in this sector experienced similar surges [8][9] - Recent reports indicate that Jiushi Intelligent, a company in the urban distribution autonomous vehicle sector, completed a $100 million Series B3 financing, marking the largest single-round financing in the autonomous driving field in nearly two years [10] - Industry analysis suggests that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as autonomous driving technology matures and traffic regulations improve, the autonomous delivery sector is expected to enter a phase of large-scale application, benefiting the supply chain and quality enterprises in instant retail [11] Company-Specific Developments - Zhongcheng Co., Ltd. saw its stock hit the daily limit down, closing at a 5.77% decrease. The company recently announced a controversial acquisition plan to purchase 100% equity of Zhongji Jiangsu, which has a projected net profit of only 18.15 million yuan for 2024, raising concerns about the feasibility of the acquisition given the company's market value of 5 billion yuan [12][14]

Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The demand for health-oriented, fragmented, and personalized products is driving innovation in the food and beverage sector, leading to the emergence of agile companies that cater to consumer needs [6][10] - Companies like Kweichow Moutai and others in the new consumption space have seen significant stock performance, with Kweichow Moutai's stock hitting a limit up on May 28 [6][9] - The focus on younger consumers, particularly those aged 25-35, is evident, with this demographic representing approximately 60-70% of the target market for companies like Chao Hong Ji [9][10] Group 2: Autonomous Logistics Vehicles - The autonomous logistics vehicle sector is experiencing rapid growth, with companies like White Rhino and Jiusi Intelligent securing significant funding to expand their fleets [12][15] - The market for low-speed autonomous logistics vehicles is projected to see explosive growth, with potential delivery volumes reaching tens of thousands by 2025 [17][19] - Companies such as KJ Intelligent and Debon Logistics have shown strong stock performance, with KJ Intelligent reaching a maximum increase of 27.24% over two days [17][19] Group 3: Nuclear Power and Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear power sector is poised for growth, with projections indicating that China's nuclear power capacity could reach 110 million kW by 2030 and 150 million kW by 2035 [22][24] - Significant investments are expected in the nuclear fusion sector, with estimates suggesting nearly 100 billion yuan could flow into this area over the next 2-3 years [29] - Companies like Hezhan Intelligent and Jiusheng Electric have seen substantial stock increases, with Hezhan Intelligent reaching a maximum increase of 33.01% [22][29]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with all three major indices slightly declining. The new consumption concept surged, with stocks like Shuiyang Co., Mingpai Jewelry, Zhou Dashing, and Junyao Health hitting the daily limit. The unmanned logistics vehicle concept remained active, with stocks such as Tongda Electric, Yunnei Power, and Jinlv Environment also reaching the daily limit. Nuclear power and controllable nuclear fusion concepts continued to show strength, with companies like Hezhan Intelligent, Rongfa Nuclear Power, and Xue Ren Co. hitting the daily limit. In contrast, pharmaceutical stocks experienced volatility, with Haichen Pharmaceutical dropping over 10%. Overall, more than 3,400 stocks declined, with a total transaction volume of 1.03 trillion yuan [1]. Hot Topics Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Unmanned logistics vehicles saw significant gains, with stocks like Tongda Electric, Yunnei Power, Jinlv Environment, and Debang Co. reaching the daily limit. The launch of the E-series unmanned logistics vehicle by Jiu Shi Intelligent on May 27 was reported by Hubei Daily [4]. - According to Longjiang Securities, the domestic low-speed unmanned logistics vehicle market is expected to experience explosive growth, with leading logistics technology companies projected to see a multiple increase in order volume by 2025. The reduction in core component costs and improved algorithm efficiency provide significant economic benefits compared to manual operations [5][6]. Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear fusion sector remained active, with companies like Shangwei Co. and Rongfa Nuclear Power achieving consecutive daily limits. A report from FIA indicated that 26 out of 37 surveyed commercial nuclear fusion companies believe the first nuclear fusion unit will be connected to the grid by 2035 [7]. - Huayuan Securities highlighted that nuclear fusion offers unmatched advantages over other energy sources, making it a potential solution to global energy challenges. The competition in the fusion sector is accelerating, with countries updating their fusion development strategies. The number of global fusion devices has exceeded 100, and China's participation in international ITER projects is forming a preliminary fusion equipment industry chain [9]. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector remained active, with companies like Kuaijishan experiencing over a 60% increase in stock price over the past week. Junyao Health and other companies also hit the daily limit [10]. - Pacific Securities noted that emotional consumption, cost-performance ratio, and health trends are becoming key factors for successful products in the consumer market. Companies with "new consumption" attributes continue to attract attention, particularly in the snack and beverage sectors [11][12].

Market Overview - The market trading volume remains at a medium-low level, with stock rotation occurring rapidly under the influence of existing funds [1] - Major indices showed slight declines this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%, Shenzhen Index down 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.47% [2] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a significant drop of 3.68%, indicating a notable decline in micro-cap stocks [2] - The trading volume for micro-cap stocks approached the highest level since December 2023, indicating a crowded trading environment [2] Interest Rate Impact - On May 20, the central bank lowered the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by 10 basis points, resulting in rates of 3% and 3.5% respectively [3] - Major state-owned banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with 1-year fixed deposits falling below 1% and 5-year deposits below 1.5% [3] - The decline in risk-free rates is expected to increase the value of companies, particularly those with high dividend yields [3] Investment Opportunities - High-quality assets are defined by several criteria: high profitability/dividend certainty, industry leadership with high barriers to entry, low PE ratios (below 20 or even 10), and a revenue structure primarily focused on domestic markets [3] - The current market environment suggests a potential style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, benefiting high-quality assets [3][4] - Investors are advised to focus on certainty in uncertain markets, with a preference for companies that have stable operating performance and dividends [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.19%, while the ChiNext Index opened slightly higher [1] - The sectors showing the highest gains included computing power supply, MLCC, and food and drug traceability, while the pet economy and shipping ports sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Stock Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3381.87, down 0.17%, with 451 gainers and 1464 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 10274.68, down 0.19%, with 476 gainers and 2045 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 2065.41, unchanged, with 226 gainers and 1030 losers [2] U.S. Market Impact - U.S. stock markets fell sharply, with the S&P 500 down 1.61% to 5844.61 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.41% to 18872.64 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.91% to 41860.44 points, marking the largest decline in a month [3] - Chinese concept stocks also weakened, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.72%, and notable declines in Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu, while XPeng Motors saw a significant increase of 13% after positive earnings [3] Industry Insights - Citic Securities forecasts a recovery in the domestic wind turbine industry, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a focus on product quality, with both onshore and offshore markets expected to expand [4] - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the recent asymmetric interest rate cuts will stabilize bank interest margins, with positive factors accumulating in the banking sector, suggesting an upcoming performance inflection point [5] - Huatai Securities highlights the global nuclear fusion industry benefiting from policy support and technological advancements, with the Tokamak industry chain poised for significant gains as commercial applications are anticipated by 2031-2040 [6]