2025年06月30日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：短期高位，关注量价 | 5 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 6 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 7 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 7 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 9 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 11 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 13 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 锰硅：港口报价提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 18 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 20 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 对二甲苯：供应收缩，月差偏强 | 23 | | PTA：月差反套 | 23 | | MEG：单边偏弱 | 23 ...

Core Insights - The industrial revenue of Fujian Province increased by 5.8% year-on-year from January to May, indicating a positive growth trend in the industrial sector [1] Revenue Growth by Sector - Mining industry grew by 1.8% - Manufacturing industry saw a growth of 6.2% - Electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 0.9% [1] Manufacturing Sub-sectors Performance - Upstream raw material manufacturing grew by 2.9% - Midstream equipment manufacturing experienced a significant growth of 13.7% - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing increased by 3.3% [1] Profitability Metrics - Total profit increased by 9.8%, with a 0.9 percentage point improvement compared to January-April [1] - Out of 38 major industrial categories, 26 achieved growth, with notable profit increases in chemical raw materials, electrical machinery, and gas production and supply sectors, which saw profit growth rates improve by over 5 percentage points compared to January-April [1] - The operating profit margin was recorded at 6.40%, up by 0.24 percentage points [1] - The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 87.17 yuan, a decrease of 0.11 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nornickel anticipates a decline in financial performance for the year due to low metal prices, high interest rates, a strong ruble, and global trade disputes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nornickel expects significant negative impacts on financial indicators due to high geopolitical uncertainty, escalating trade disputes, risks of global economic slowdown, and tightening monetary policies [1] - The company faces challenges from a strong ruble, low metal prices, inflation, and high debt servicing costs [1] - The Russian central bank's key interest rate of 20% is seen as a major drag on the economy, leading to a substantial slowdown this year [1] Group 2: Investment and Dividends - Difficult conditions have forced Nornickel to reduce investments and postpone certain projects [1] - The board of directors has recommended not to pay dividends for the 2024 performance, stating that increasing debt levels to pay dividends is inappropriate [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Nornickel's vice president, Anton Berlin, predicts that the palladium market will remain balanced in 2025, while the nickel market will be oversupplied [2] - The automotive industry, a major consumer of these metals, is still in crisis [2] - Berlin criticized Indonesia for flooding the global market with cheap nickel, harming other producers, and noted that approximately 40% of nickel producers are currently operating at a loss [2] - Nornickel aims to ensure that global trade disputes do not affect its export volumes and intends to sell all of its produced products [2]

重视行业格局变化，逐浪涨价周期 - 2025 年农业中期策 略 20250627 摘要 国内牛存栏量自 2023 年中期持续下降，预计今年降幅超 10%；全球牛 存栏自 2022 年起下降，预计今年继续减少。中国政策减少牛肉进口， 多重因素共同推动国内肉牛价格上涨，或将维持两年以上的上行周期。 原奶价格预计 2026 年企稳向上，与肉牛价格存在联动性。2024 年初 奶牛存栏量持续下降，同比去化超 5%，九成牧场亏损。预计 2025 年 下半年奶价或供需平衡并有上行空间，进口量预计下降，利好国内供需 平衡。 生猪养殖板块受供给侧改革推动，中长期盈利提升逻辑明确。政策指引 生猪库存、体重、二次育肥及能繁母猪存栏量。若生猪存量有效控制在 3,950 万头或更低水平，行业扣减利润可期，领先企业养殖利润接近 400 元每头。 生猪养殖行业供给端和盈利端情况：预计 2025 年生猪供给量比 2024 年有所增加，但生产效率提升和疫病影响使得实际供给量仍存在不确定 性。今年全年的均价将在每公斤 4.5 元上下浮动，而利润可能压缩至头 均几十到头均 100 元左右。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）下半年农业板块的涨价品种有哪 ...

Group 1 - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) is enhancing financial support for private enterprises, focusing on cross-border financial service needs and providing comprehensive services to assist foreign trade companies in market expansion [1] - PSBC Dalian Branch is recognized as a significant window for opening up in Northeast China, continuously optimizing financial supply and innovating service models to support "going global" enterprises [1] - Dalian Ditop Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. has benefited from PSBC's support, receiving a loan of 4.3 million yuan to alleviate financial pressure due to rising raw material costs [1] Group 2 - PSBC Dalian Branch is promoting a financing coordination mechanism to support small and micro enterprises, continuously innovating financial products and service models [2] - The "No Repayment Renewal Loan" service allows small and micro enterprises to seamlessly renew loans, helping to reduce overall costs and support business growth [2] - Dalian Xinglong Food Co., Ltd. utilized the "No Repayment Renewal Loan" to address high financing costs and received an additional credit line of 10 million yuan to enhance liquidity [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that despite a decline in industrial enterprise profits in China for the first five months of the year, both gross profit and revenue continue to grow, indicating resilience and vitality in the industrial economy [1][3][4] - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, influenced by insufficient effective demand and declining industrial product prices [3][4] - Gross profit for industrial enterprises increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3 percentage point increase in overall profits, while operating revenue grew by 2.7% [3][4] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing industry has shown significant performance, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [4] - The "three aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and maritime) experienced rapid growth, with profits in related sectors increasing by 56% year-on-year, driven by successful commercial operations and new achievements in the aerospace sector [4] - The implementation of the "two new" policies has effectively stimulated domestic demand, with profits in general and specialized equipment sectors growing by 10.6% and 7.1% respectively [5][6] Group 3 - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises have maintained profit growth, with private enterprises seeing a 3.4% increase, outperforming the overall average by 4.6 percentage points [6] - As of the end of May, there were 185 million private economic organizations in China, accounting for 96.76% of total business entities, with private enterprises exceeding 58 million, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year increase [6] - The private sector is increasingly investing in technological innovation, particularly in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and high-end equipment manufacturing, playing a crucial role in industrial upgrades and economic stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kexing Bio, is attracting attention for its substantial cash dividend distribution to shareholders, with plans for additional dividends in the future [1] Group 1: Dividend Distribution - Kexing Bio will distribute a cash dividend of $55 per share to shareholders on July 7, following a six-year suspension of trading since February 22, 2019, when the stock price was $6.47, making the dividend 8.5 times the stock price [1] - The company has also announced a second special cash dividend of $19 per share and plans to issue a third special cash dividend ranging from $20 to $50 per share, along with a new regular dividend policy [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2015 to 2020, Kexing Bio reported a total profit of $240 million, with a net profit of $14.5 billion in 2021, but has faced losses in both 2023 and the first half of 2024 [1] Group 3: Shareholder Disputes - The company has been involved in a shareholder battle since 2016, with control disputes between the actual controller, Yin Weidong, and former chairman of Weiming Pharmaceutical, Pan Aihua, leading to significant conflicts [1] - Recent legal actions include a lawsuit from Weiming Capital, alleging irresponsible behavior under 1Globe's control, which is claimed to harm the interests of other shareholders [1] - Kexing Bio's actual controller is using the large dividend distribution to address these disputes, suggesting that the value of the control struggle may diminish after the dividend distribution [1]

科兴生物的控制权争夺可以追溯到2016年。当时公司准备启动私有化并回国上市，却引发了一场激烈的 控制权争夺战。科兴生物实控人尹卫东与未名医药前董事长潘爱华为争夺公司控制权对簿公堂，期间出 现了拉闸断电、抢夺公司印章、相互举报等激烈冲突。 潘爱华曾联合李嘉强控制的1Globe Capital LLC等机构，在科兴生物股东大会上反对尹卫东等现任董事 会的连任。为保住控制权，尹卫东启动了"毒丸协议"，通过向除恶意收购方以外的所有股东增发新股来 稀释对方股权。根据英国枢密院今年年初的司法判决，李嘉强一方最终获胜，科兴生物2018年年度股东 大会中由特定少数股东提名的董事候选人被确认为合法董事。 4月24日，维梧资本对科兴生物董事会发起诉讼。维梧资本认为，科兴生物董事会在1Globe及其盟友控 制下，采取了诸多不负责任的行为。维梧资本表示其代表长期投资者利益，认为新董事会为1Globe单方 谋利，损害其他股东权益。科兴生物则回应称，公司所有普通股股东在过去七年未获得任何分红，但维 梧集团已在2021年至2024年期间从科兴的一家控股子公司获得了超过8亿美元的现金股息。 在纳斯达克上市的科兴生物近期宣布向股东派发每股55 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sinovac Biotech, is distributing a substantial cash dividend of $55 per share to its shareholders, which is significantly higher than its stock price of $6.47, indicating a potential shift in its financial strategy and shareholder relations [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - Sinovac Biotech will pay a cash dividend of $55 per share, which is 8.5 times its stock price prior to suspension [2]. - The company plans to issue a second special cash dividend of $19 per share and is considering a third special cash dividend ranging from $20 to $50 per share [2]. - Sinovac has established a new dividend policy to regularly return cash to shareholders [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2015 to June 2020, Sinovac Biotech reported a total profit of $240 million, while in 2021, it achieved a net profit of $14.5 billion, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of $8.46 billion [2]. - The company has reported losses for both 2023 and the first half of 2024 [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Disputes - The company has been embroiled in a control battle since 2016, involving legal disputes over its management and ownership structure [2][3]. - A recent court ruling favored one faction led by Li Jiaqiang, but ongoing disputes continue, with claims of irresponsible actions by the current board under 1 Globe Capital LLC [4]. - The previous board's interests are represented by Weiwang Capital, which has initiated legal action against the current board, alleging that it prioritizes the interests of 1 Globe over other shareholders [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The substantial dividend payments may be a strategy by the current controlling party to mitigate conflicts and reduce the perceived value of the company in the ongoing disputes [5].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 29 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：矿端支撑边际松动，冶炼端逻辑限制上方弹性。镍价下方空间取决于矿端支撑，市场关 于印尼配额增加的消息影响矿端预期，而且往年的第三季度常常是印尼配额释放和镍矿溢价回调的阶段， 7 月印尼镍矿溢价或有小幅回调。其次，菲律宾与印尼矿价经济性差的收敛或限制印尼镍矿的上方弹性， 菲律宾可能删除原矿出口禁令的消息，市场对矿端的担忧预期和炒作情绪有所降温。矿端逻辑逐步走向钝 化后，若定价回归冶炼端基本面逻辑，则上方弹性可能受到供应弹性的压力。7 月不锈钢中国和印尼不锈 钢排产企稳，镍铁边际累库至历史高位，负反馈向镍铁估值施压，从转产经济性和精炼镍成本曲线的角度 考虑，镍铁承压或限制精炼镍估值的上方弹性。精炼镍环节累库不及预期，而运行产能边际增加，供应弹 性限制上方空间，远端可能复刻镍铁和硫酸镍的出清逻辑。 不锈钢基本面：供需双弱运行，库存迎来小幅去化，钢价边际修复但上方弹性有 ...