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农林牧渔:供应压力延续,猪价承压下行
Huafu Securities· 2025-11-09 12:08
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [70]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply pressure in the pig farming sector, leading to a downward trend in pig prices. As of November 7, the average pig price was 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week, indicating a shift towards heavier pigs being sold [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, short-term prices are slightly declining, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward price cycle for beef in 2026-2027. The price of calves as of November 7 was 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date [3][32]. - The poultry sector is experiencing stable yet declining prices for meat chickens, with the average price for white feathered meat chickens at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7. The egg price is slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg, indicating potential recovery in the egg market as downstream production decreases [4][40][45]. - The agricultural sector is seeing a strong performance in soybean meal prices due to changes in import tariffs on U.S. soybeans, with the spot price at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is expected to support a strong trend in soybean meal prices moving forward [4][53]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply pressure continues, leading to a decline in pig prices. The average pig price as of November 7 is 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week [2][10][30]. - The report notes that the market is transitioning to sporadic replenishment as the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly [10][30]. Beef Industry - Short-term prices for beef are slightly declining, with calf prices at 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date. The market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, leading to a potential price increase cycle in 2026-2027 [3][32]. Poultry Sector - The average price for white feathered meat chickens is stable at 7.09 CNY/kg, while egg prices are slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg. The report suggests that the poultry sector may benefit from a recovery in consumption as production decreases [4][40][45]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is expected to remain strong due to tariff changes on U.S. soybeans, with current prices at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is anticipated to support a bullish trend in soybean meal prices [4][53].
全国冬小麦播种已过六成
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-11-09 11:21
Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reports that the autumn and winter planting is accelerating across the country, with over 60% of winter wheat and over 90% of winter rapeseed already sown as of November 8 [1] Group 1 - The national winter wheat planting has surpassed 60% completion [1] - The winter rapeseed planting has exceeded 90% completion [1]
东方证券农林牧渔行业周报:供给宽松持续压制猪价,10月能繁去化提速-20251109
Orient Securities· 2025-11-09 02:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side relaxation continues to suppress pig prices, with a significant acceleration in the reduction of breeding sows in October [2] - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][38] - The planting chain shows a positive outlook with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][38] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week [11] - The price of 15 kg piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 4.41% week-on-week [11] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss phase, with pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaning pig prices around 200 yuan/head [8][11] Poultry - The white feather broiler price remains stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while chick prices have decreased to 3.54 yuan/chick, down 1.12% week-on-week [16] - The supply of broilers is increasing, but purchasing enthusiasm remains low [16] Feed Sector - Corn and wheat prices have decreased, while soybean meal prices have increased slightly [24] - The average price of corn is 2238.53 yuan/ton, down 0.07% week-on-week [24] Bulk Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber price is 14995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week-on-week, with a new round of inventory replenishment starting [34] - The overall supply remains ample, and the market is characterized by weak demand [34] Investment Recommendations - Positive outlook for the pig farming sector with recommended stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [3][38] - The planting sector shows promising fundamentals with recommended stocks such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][38] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommended stocks including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [3][38]
秋涝影响黄淮地区秋收秋播 学者呼吁升级基础能力
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-11-08 23:18
文章还提到,农业农村部测算,若不及时干预,黄淮地区秋粮减产幅度将达8%~10%,直接造成较大 的经济损失。部分地块玉米亩产仅五六百斤,较常年减产近半,叠加价格下跌、人工收割成本以及烘干 成本的增加,农户每亩净收益缩水400~600元。截至10月11日,全国面粉加工企业小麦收购价格均值为 1.2343元/斤,较10月5日上涨0.55分。而湿粮、霉变粮集中上市将拉低玉米整体收购价,形成"优质粮价 涨、劣质粮价跌"格局。同时,人工、烘干、排水等额外成本增加,规模种植户亏损风险加剧,小农户 种粮效益持续走低,可能影响来年生产投入意愿。 牛文涛等人在文章中介绍,虽然秋涝灾害带来严峻挑战,但黄淮地区长期积累的农业生产基础、逐步完 善的应急保障体系和多元协同的治理能力,为抗灾救灾、恢复生产提供了坚实支撑,在一定程度上减少 了粮食的损耗以及农民收益的损害。 文章指出,黄淮地区(山东、河南、江苏、安徽四省的大部分地区)作为我国冬小麦和秋粮主产区,粮 食产量占全国比重超15%,对全年粮食丰收起着重要作用,其秋收秋播的顺利推进直接关乎国家粮食安 全。2025年9—10月,该地区遭遇历史罕见的持续阴雨天气,累计降雨量达250~400 ...
每周股票复盘:新赛股份(600540)子公司拟使用最高8亿元做套期保值
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-08 20:40
Core Points - Xinjiang Sairim Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd. (New Sai) reported a stock price increase of 3.07% this week, closing at 5.04 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2.93 billion yuan [1] - The company held its fifth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders for 2025, where two key proposals were discussed [1][2] Company Announcements - The company plans to engage its subsidiary in futures and options hedging activities, focusing on cotton, cotton yarn, soybean meal, and soybean oil, with a maximum futures margin of 800 million yuan and options margin and premium not exceeding 700 million yuan, from October 27, 2025, to October 26, 2026 [1][2] - The company adjusted the guarantee limits for its subsidiaries, maintaining a total guarantee amount of 3.5 billion yuan, while reducing the guarantee for Xinjiang Jicaitong Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. by 1.17 billion yuan and increasing the guarantee for Xinjiang New Sai Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. by 700 million yuan and for Shuanghe New Sai Bohui Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. by 470 million yuan [1][2]
全市109.73万亩水稻已完成收割72.75万亩 六成水稻归仓,秋播有序推进
Zhen Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-11-08 16:25
Core Insights - The agricultural sector in the city is actively engaged in the autumn harvest, with significant progress reported in rice and wheat harvesting and planting activities [1][2] Group 1: Harvesting Progress - As of November 6, a total of 1.0973 million acres of rice have been harvested, with 727,500 acres completed, indicating a progress rate of over 60% [1] - In the Guozhuang Town of Jurong City, a major grain grower has completed over 80% of the harvesting for 9,000 acres of rice, with hybrid rice nearing the end of its harvest [1] - In the Danhu District, another grain grower has reported that early-maturing rice varieties are being sold daily, with prices ranging from 4 yuan to 20 yuan per kilogram based on variety and packaging [1] Group 2: Wheat Planting Activities - The wheat planting area is expected to reach 800,400 acres, with over 20% of the planting already completed [1] - A family farm in Lingkou Town has completed its autumn harvest and planting tasks in just 12 days, marking the fastest pace in recent years [1] - The farm has reduced its seed usage from 11.5 kg per acre last year to 9 kg this year, resulting in significant cost savings [1] Group 3: Recommendations for Farmers - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Bureau emphasizes the need for farmers to take advantage of favorable weather conditions to complete harvesting and drying by November 15 [2] - Farmers are encouraged to organize wheat planting efficiently, adhering to principles of appropriate moisture, timing, and depth to ensure a successful crop [2]
新农人领跑乡村振兴
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-11-08 01:16
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of a young farmer, Li Jinyang, who has successfully integrated modern agricultural technology into his farming practices, leading to increased efficiency and productivity in his operations. Group 1: Agricultural Technology Adoption - Li Jinyang initially invested over 40,000 yuan in a plant protection drone, which significantly improved the efficiency of his farming operations, allowing him to accomplish in one day what would take several days manually [1] - The farm has achieved full mechanization from planting to storage, incorporating various agricultural machinery such as tractors, fertilizer spreaders, and harvesters, along with advanced technologies like remote monitoring and smart systems [2] Group 2: Economic Impact and Community Engagement - By adopting modern agricultural techniques, Li Jinyang has helped local farmers reduce costs by 100 yuan per mu and increase yields by 200 jin per mu each season [2] - His commitment to community service and knowledge sharing has led to his recognition as a village-level reserve cadre, emphasizing the importance of collective progress in agriculture [2] Group 3: Growth and Future Prospects - The scale of Li Jinyang's farm has expanded to 1,500 mu, reflecting his growing confidence in the agricultural sector, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [3]
波黑塞族共和国2000公顷撂荒农地向青年农户招标
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-11-07 16:11
波黑《独立报》11月5日报道。波黑塞族共和国农林水利部与青年农业企业家协会 合作,在格拉迪什卡等市划出约2000公顷国有撂荒农地,其中仅格拉迪什卡市辖区的 列夫切平原和波托科扎尔耶地区就达700公顷。政府现已面向40岁以下青年农户启动专 项租赁计划:一般作物土地租期8-12年,果园类租期25年并可续期。目前该实体19个市 共规划约1万公顷国有撂荒地,其中格拉迪什卡市2025年已完成35公顷整治并投入5万 马克补贴。据农业协会统计,当地每年约30%-40%农地处于闲置状态,波托科扎尔耶 部分地区荒地比例高达80%,主要原因在于人口外流及老龄化,土地无人打理。(驻波 黑使馆经商处) (原标题:波黑塞族共和国2000公顷撂荒农地向青年农户招标) ...
农林牧渔行业2025Q3业绩综述报告:业绩增长稳健,多数子板块利润向好
Wanlian Securities· 2025-11-07 10:36
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [5][41]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 952.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, ranking 10th among Shenwan's primary industries. The net profit attributable to shareholders totaled 36.747 billion yuan, up 11.81% year-on-year, ranking 11th [10][39]. - The return on equity (ROE) for the sector was 6.62%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin and net profit margin were 11.13% and 3.96%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.41 and 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [16][39]. Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Industry Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's revenue and profit growth rates are among the highest in the market, with a total revenue of 952.415 billion yuan and a net profit of 36.747 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [10][39]. Subsector Performance - **Planting Industry**: Revenue reached 70.967 billion yuan, up 4.74% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.395 billion yuan, an increase of 4.06% [20]. - **Feed Industry**: Revenue was 215.297 billion yuan, a 12.04% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 22.24% to 6.058 billion yuan [26]. - **Agricultural Products Processing**: Revenue slightly decreased by 0.31% to 259.411 billion yuan, but net profit surged by 52.36% to 5.188 billion yuan [32]. - **Breeding Industry**: Revenue was 366.406 billion yuan, up 6.97% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 4.52% to 23.296 billion yuan [33]. - **Animal Health**: Revenue grew by 19.71% to 14.614 billion yuan, with net profit soaring by 97.92% to 1.551 billion yuan [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable operations in leading pig farming enterprises and high-quality domestic brands in the pet food sector, which has significant growth potential due to low market concentration [3][39].