Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure in its inventory management for its brewed products, while the fruit tea segment shows strong growth momentum [2][3]. - The company is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2025, focusing on inventory reduction and expanding marketing efforts through pop-up stores [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.32% year-on-year, with a net profit of 253.19 million yuan, down 9.67% [5][12]. - The revenue breakdown shows brewed products generating 2.27 billion yuan (down 15.4%) and ready-to-drink products at 973 million yuan (up 8%) for 2024 [2][5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to remain stable at 7.7%, with a slight increase in the non-GAAP net profit margin [3][13]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 2% for 2025, 8% for 2026, and 6% for 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 5%, 16%, and 10% [4][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.65 yuan for 2025, 0.75 yuan for 2026, and 0.82 yuan for 2027 [5][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its product positioning in the fruit tea market, with a successful strategy reflected in a 20.69% increase in fruit tea revenue [2][3]. - The company plans to adjust its frozen lemon tea product positioning ahead of the peak season to improve sales performance [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is expected to meet forecasts, with revenue projected at 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22%, and net profit at 224 million yuan, a decrease of 5.55% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is actively exploring new channels such as e-commerce, which saw a revenue increase of 90.46% in 2024, contributing to 5.4% of total revenue [3][5] - The new management is focusing on product innovation to attract younger consumers, with new products like AD Calcium Milk and Vitamin Water being introduced [5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a net profit margin of 15.8%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, but with a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 87%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, and intends to repurchase 4.33 million shares [2][4] - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 6% for 2027, with net profit growth of 14%, 11%, and 8% respectively [5] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from dairy beverages is expected to be 1.354 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while other income is projected to increase by 128% [3] - Revenue from different regions shows mixed results, with East China remaining stable, while Central China and Northeast China experienced significant declines [3] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20X for 2025, 18X for 2026, and 17X for 2027 [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.65 yuan, increasing to 0.78 yuan by 2027 [7][5]

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 香飘飘（603711） 证券研究报告 冲泡加快去库、果茶动能良好 24 年业绩分拆：24 年营业收入 32.87 亿元，同比-9.32%；归母净利 2.53 亿 元，同比-9.67%；扣非净利 2.18 亿元，同比-5.82%。24Q4 营业收入 13.49 亿元，同比-18.06%；归母净利 2.35 亿元，同比-14.94%；扣非净利 2.23 亿 元，同比-17.67%。25Q1 营业收入 5.80 亿元，同比-19.98%；归母净利-0.19 亿元，由盈转亏。分红率 41%，同比-10pct。 冲泡去库存承压，果茶增长势头靓丽。 分产品看：24 年冲泡类/即饮收入 22.71/9.73 亿元，同比-15.4%/+8%，即 饮收入占比+4.9pct 至 30%。 1、24 年冲泡销量同比-14%、价同比-2%，受外部消费环境变化及内部策略 调整，公司冲泡的库存、价盘稳定性受到影响；Q4 开始坚持以终端动销为 原则，积极去库稳价，目前库存已回归良性水平。 2、24 年即饮销量同比+11%、价同比-3%，其中果汁茶收入 7.8 亿、同比 +20.69%，聚集果茶策略成效显现；冻柠 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is expected to meet forecasts, with revenue projected at 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22%, and net profit at 224 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.55% [2][5] - The company is actively exploring new channels such as e-commerce, which saw a revenue increase of 90.46% in 2024, contributing to 5.4% of total revenue [3][5] - The new management is focusing on product innovation to attract younger consumers, with new products like AD Calcium Milk and Vitamin Water being introduced [5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a net profit margin of 15.8%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, but with a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 87%, which is an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5%, 6%, and 6%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 14%, 11%, and 8% [5] Product and Regional Performance - In terms of product performance, the revenue from dairy beverages is expected to decline by 2% in 2024, while other categories are projected to grow by 128% [3] - Regionally, the company expects stable performance in East and Southwest China, while Central and Northeast regions are experiencing significant declines [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 20X, 18X, and 17X, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 5.16 billion yuan, with a current share price of 13.08 yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.53% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.855 billion yuan and a significant drop in net profit by 47.06% to 147 million yuan. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue by 18.52% year-on-year, amounting to 449 million yuan, and a net profit decrease of 58.27% to 34 million yuan [1][4] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.855 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 147 million yuan, down 47.06% year-on-year. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.014 billion yuan, 2.264 billion yuan, and 2.572 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 8.56%, 12.44%, and 13.59% [5][4] - The net profit forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 163 million yuan, 190 million yuan, and 219 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.81%, 16.06%, and 15.29% [5][4] Product Performance - In 2024, the revenue from coconut juice, other beverages, fruit cans, and other canned products was 964 million yuan, 142 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 38 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.66%, -0.84%, -11.51%, and -22.96% [2] Profitability Metrics - The company achieved a net profit margin of 7.95% in 2024, down 6.53 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 12.36%, a decrease of 4.29 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 7.63%, down 7.27 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in profitability, supported by a diversified product portfolio and optimized channel matrix [4][7] - The company aims for revenue and profit targets of 1190 billion and 126 billion respectively for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1157.8 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84.53 billion, down 18.9% year-on-year [4] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 330.2 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year, while net profit was 48.74 billion, down 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The company plans a dividend of 1.22 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 92%, alongside a share buyback that accounts for 100.4% of net profit [4] Business Segment Performance - In Q4 2024, the liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 13.1%, while milk powder and cold drinks grew by 8.7% and 23.7% respectively [5] - For Q1 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 3.1%, milk powder increased by 18.6%, and cold drinks fell by 5.3% [5] - The company maintained its leading market share in liquid milk and saw growth in low-temperature milk [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 30.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -9.1% due to significant asset impairment losses [6] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 37.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by business structure optimization [6] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for steady growth in 2025, with expectations of improved supply and demand dynamics due to consumption promotion policies [7] - The reduction of impairment losses related to the acquisition of Aoyou is expected to enhance profitability significantly [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.5, 16.3, and 15.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]

伊利股份（600887.SH） 减值落地轻装上阵，盈利能力稳步提升 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 食品饮料/饮料乳品 | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 29.76 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 31.96/21.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,894.49 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,885.14 | | 总股本(亿股) | 63.66 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 63.34 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 48.02 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 伊利股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 利润超预期，盈利能力有望 稳 步 提 升 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.11.3 《短期调整下业绩承压，期待下半年 环 比 改 善 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.31 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its long-term growth potential [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated sustained high growth in its performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a clear platform company logic and excellent operational management [1][6]. - The energy drink segment is in an upward trend, with strong growth expected from its products "Bup Shui La" and "Guo Zhi Cha" [1][6]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution network and enhancing single-point production capabilities, which supports future growth [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.848 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, and a net profit of 980 million yuan, up 47.62% [2]. - The energy drink segment generated revenue of 3.901 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 25.71%, accounting for 80.50% of total revenue [3]. - The electrolyte drink segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 570 million yuan, a staggering increase of 261.46% year-on-year [3]. Channel and Regional Performance - Revenue growth was strong across major channels, with sales from distribution, key accounts, and online channels reaching 4.283 billion, 457 million, and 104 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The company's home region of Guangdong showed solid revenue growth of 21.58%, while other regions like East China and Southwest China experienced increases of 30.82% and 61.78%, respectively [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.47%, an increase of 1.70 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The net profit margin improved to 20.21%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.15 percentage points [5]. - The company expects revenues to grow to 20.948 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 4.508 billion yuan, indicating strong growth rates of 32% and 36%, respectively [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Yili's performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by a decline in revenue and net profit, but the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of improvement with better-than-expected results [7] - The company is focusing on cost advantages and optimizing product structure, leading to significant improvements in gross margin [7] - Yili's strategy emphasizes rational channel management and shareholder returns, with a notable increase in dividend payout ratio [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Yili is projected to achieve total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 19% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company expects total revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.7% [7] - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 is expected to improve, with increases of 1.3 and 1.88 percentage points respectively [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 120.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.43%, and for 2026, it is projected at 126.34 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.5% [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is revised to 11.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.48%, and for 2026, it is expected to be 12.13 billion yuan, with a growth of 9.18% [7] - The report maintains a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) forecast of 17 for 2025, 16 for 2026, and 15 for 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.415 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 224 million yuan, a decrease of 5.55% year-on-year [8] - The company has maintained a stable profitability with a gross margin of 29.1% in 2024, an increase of 3.24 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining raw material costs [8] - The company is focusing on product upgrades and channel expansion, particularly in the sweet milk series and new vitamin water products, which are expected to enhance profitability [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 1.415 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 8.69% in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 254 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.64 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.43 times [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 184 million yuan in 2024, with a cash dividend rate of approximately 87% [8]