文|新消费财研社 | 证券代码:605337 | 证券简称:李子园 公告编号:2025-068 | | --- | --- | | -------------------------- | A BOOK AND THE COLLECT COLLEGION | 近日，以甜牛奶为主业的李子园（605337.SH）发布公告，宣布终止云南子公司2亿元含乳饮料二期项目。这一原本计 划建设3条无菌灌装产线的投资，因"土地规划、产业规划等客观因素"搁浅。 尽管李子园强调"优化资源配置"，但财报数据与行业趋势揭示了更深层的隐忧。在健康消费浪潮下，李子园赖以生存 的高糖含乳饮料正遭遇前所未有的市场寒流，核心产品收入下滑、产能利用率不足、成本压力加剧，这家区域性乳饮 龙头正面临成立30年来最严峻的增长挑战。 健康风潮下核心业务失速，含乳饮料收入连续两年下滑 云南项目的终止标志着李子园产能扩张进入审慎期。截至 2025 年上半年，公司仍有5个在建项目，总预算15.8亿元， 预计2029年产能将达59.26万吨，较2024年增长58%。如何在需求疲软的背景下消化这些产能，已成为李子园管理层的 核心挑战。 李子园的困境始于其过度依赖的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Xi'an Weiyang District Market Supervision Administration conducted a food safety inspection, testing 51 batches of samples across 11 food categories, with all samples passing the safety standards, indicating a strong compliance with food safety regulations in the region [2][3]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 51 batches of food samples were tested, covering categories such as condiments, bean products, honey products, canned goods, alcoholic beverages, grain products, dairy products, sugar, agricultural products, fruit products, and beverages [3]. - All 51 batches of samples were found to be compliant with national food safety standards, resulting in a 0% non-compliance rate [2][3]. Group 2: Categories of Food Tested - The inspection included a diverse range of food categories, specifically: - Condiments - Bean products - Honey products - Canned goods - Alcoholic beverages - Grain processing products - Dairy products - Sugar - Agricultural products - Fruit products - Beverages [3].

Summary - The Xi'an Weiyang District Market Supervision Administration conducted a food safety inspection, testing 261 batches of food across 22 categories, with 260 passing and 1 failing [2][3]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 261 batches of food were tested, with 260 passing and only 1 failing the safety standards [3][4]. - The categories tested included biscuits, catering food, egg products, starch and starch products, condiments, bean products, canned food, alcoholic beverages, frozen drinks, grain processing products, meat products, dairy products, sugar, edible oils, vegetable products, snacks, seafood products, fruit products, frozen foods, candy products, beverages, and edible agricultural products [3]. Group 2: Non-compliant Product Details - The non-compliant product was identified as "Jinglong" fried rice crackers from Xi'an Huxian Hengli Food Factory, with a fat acidity level of 7.0 mg/g, exceeding the standard limit of 5 mg/g [4]. - The inspection was conducted by Huayan Testing Group, which confirmed the non-compliance [4]. Group 3: Compliant Product Highlights - Among the compliant products, notable mentions include spicy crayfish seasoning from Sanbao Food Processing Co., Ltd. and refined salt from Sichuan Jiuda Salt Co., Ltd. [5]. - The compliant products were sourced from various manufacturers located in Shaanxi province, ensuring a wide range of food safety compliance [5].

Summary of Li Ziyuan's Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall consumption market remains weak, particularly affecting traditional channels like supermarkets, which have seen a decline of over 10% in sales during the first half of the year. In contrast, emerging channels such as snack systems, convenience stores, and e-commerce have shown growth trends, with snack systems growing at a rate of 40% [2][3] Company Performance - Traditional channel sales have significantly declined, leading to a decrease in overall revenue. The company is adjusting its structure to strengthen cooperation with emerging channels, which have achieved double-digit growth, but their small proportion cannot offset the decline in traditional channels [2][5] - The company reported a net profit growth of 15%-16% year-on-year, with a non-recurring profit growth of about 5%-6%. Gross margin improved due to raw material cost advantages, but the decline in revenue in the second quarter led to increased manufacturing costs, resulting in a lower gross margin increase compared to the first quarter [2][7] New Product Performance - New products have outperformed older ones, with the nutrient water launched at the end of May achieving sales of approximately 15 million units. Over 40% of retail channel growth is attributed to new product contributions, including 380ml and 100ml sweet milk products [2][6] Sales Channel Expansion - The company is expanding modern sales channels, including snack systems, special channels (breakfast, small dining, etc.), and convenience stores. It is developing specialized products for vending machines to find new market increments and stabilize traditional channels [2][8] - The vitamin water product is being promoted primarily through traditional clients with school or convenience store resources, and e-commerce channels are leveraging events like the 618 shopping festival for promotion [4][10] Future Projections - The company aims to cultivate vitamin water as a second growth curve, targeting sales of several tens of millions this year and hoping to reach 200 million to 500 million in the coming years [10] - The company has locked in large package powder procurement until early next year, with a new spray powder factory expected to be operational by the end of the year, which will help secure raw material costs [4][23][24] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The e-commerce channel is expected to grow by 20%-30% this year, with significant investments in brand promotion, including new media and celebrity endorsements. The marketing budget is projected to be around 50 million to 60 million [20] - The company is also exploring partnerships with major supermarkets like Sam's Club, Hema, and Yonghui, with discussions ongoing for potential collaborations [22] Conclusion - The company is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on expanding into new channels and promoting new products to offset declines in traditional sales. The strategic emphasis on e-commerce and modern retail partnerships is expected to drive future growth.

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the generational transition in the Chinese private economy, particularly in family-owned businesses, with over 80% being family-controlled and entering a critical succession phase [14] - Li Ziyuan's new general manager, Li Bosheng, represents a new chapter for the brand as he takes over management responsibilities, marking a significant generational shift [3][4] - The company has faced stagnation in revenue growth, primarily due to its heavy reliance on sweet milk products, which account for over 95% of its revenue, leading to a near-zero growth situation since 2021 [4][6] Group 2 - Despite holding a market share close to 50% in the sweet milk segment, Li Ziyuan's revenue has been under pressure due to the rising popularity of healthier beverage options, resulting in a five-year compound growth rate of only 6.4% [6][9] - New product launches, such as juice drinks and plant-based beverages, have not significantly contributed to overall revenue, indicating a lack of a successful "second growth curve" [9] - Li Bosheng's strategy includes diversifying product offerings and embracing new retail channels, with a focus on health-oriented products and e-commerce growth, leading to a 16.2% increase in net profit in early 2025 [10][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the broader trend of generational change in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, with many companies facing systemic challenges related to succession [14][20] - Examples of successful transitions include Master Kong, which saw a 19.8% increase in net profit under the leadership of the second generation, and Wahaha, which has restructured its operations under new leadership [16][18] - The strategic shifts observed during these transitions include moving from reliance on single products to a diversified product matrix, enhancing channel penetration, and leveraging data for decision-making [20][21][22]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in June, overseas focus is on tariff negotiations, debt risks, and interest rate cut expectations, leading to a cautious outlook for US stocks, while domestic economic and policy observations show limited incremental highlights [3][11] - The A-share market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with a continuation of the "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend defense, domestic demand recovery, and technology growth [3][15] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sectors such as banking, public utilities, transportation, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and technology-driven industries like AI and semiconductors for potential investment opportunities [3][15] Group 2 - The report lists the top ten stocks for June, including companies from various sectors such as electronics, media, automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and power equipment [4][10] - Specific companies highlighted include Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Juguang Technology, and Changchun Gaoxin, with each showing promising growth potential based on recent performance and market conditions [4][17][27] - The report provides earnings forecasts for these companies, indicating expected revenue growth for Lianchuang Optoelectronics from 32.91 billion to 45.04 billion from 2025 to 2027, and for Juguang Technology from 5.65 billion to 11.01 billion in the same period [21][27]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ziyuan plans to enter the milk powder market to reduce raw material costs and diversify its product offerings, focusing on milk powder and dairy product production and sales by 2025 [1][6][12]. Investment Plans - The company intends to invest 320 million yuan in a "daily processing of 1,000 tons of raw milk deep processing project" and establish a wholly-owned subsidiary named Ningxia Li Ziyuan Food Co., Ltd. [2][5]. - The project will include the construction of production lines for whole and skim milk powder, concentrated milk, cream, cheese, and a research and development center, along with supporting facilities [5]. Market Challenges - The milk powder market is facing challenges due to declining birth rates, leading to reduced demand and increased competition among existing brands [6][7]. - The company acknowledges the volatility of milk powder prices influenced by environmental factors, cow inventory, supply-demand relationships, and trade policies, which pose cost control challenges [5][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Li Ziyuan reported revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, but net profit decreased by 5.6% to 220 million yuan [8][10]. - The revenue from dairy beverages accounted for approximately 95% of total revenue, with a decline of 1.92% year-on-year [10][12]. Product Diversification - To address performance pressures, Li Ziyuan is expanding its product range beyond sweet milk to include plant-based protein drinks, vitamin drinks, and tea-flavored beer [1][12]. - The company is also focusing on health-oriented products, launching new series such as coarse grain drinks and vitamin water to cater to changing consumer preferences [12][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is expected to meet forecasts, with revenue projected at 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22%, and net profit at 224 million yuan, a decrease of 5.55% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is actively exploring new channels such as e-commerce, which saw a revenue increase of 90.46% in 2024, contributing to 5.4% of total revenue [3][5] - The new management is focusing on product innovation to attract younger consumers, with new products like AD Calcium Milk and Vitamin Water being introduced [5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a net profit margin of 15.8%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, but with a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 87%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, and intends to repurchase 4.33 million shares [2][4] - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 6% for 2027, with net profit growth of 14%, 11%, and 8% respectively [5] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from dairy beverages is expected to be 1.354 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while other income is projected to increase by 128% [3] - Revenue from different regions shows mixed results, with East China remaining stable, while Central China and Northeast China experienced significant declines [3] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20X for 2025, 18X for 2026, and 17X for 2027 [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.65 yuan, increasing to 0.78 yuan by 2027 [7][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing transformation and product diversification efforts of Li Ziyuan, a listed company, under the leadership of the second-generation successor Li Boxiong, who aims to alleviate the company's growth stagnation and anxiety through frequent new product launches and brand upgrades [1][8][26]. Product Diversification - Li Ziyuan has initiated a product diversification strategy, launching new products such as upgraded AD Calcium Milk and the new VitaYoung vitamin water, with the latter featuring three flavors and a focus on vitamin functionality [2][11]. - The company has also expanded its fruit and vegetable juice product line with new offerings like corn juice and pomelo juice [2][6]. - In the latter half of 2024, Li Ziyuan plans to introduce additional product lines, including sparkling milk and plant-based protein drinks [6][10]. Growth Anxiety - The frequent introduction of new products is driven by Li Ziyuan's growth anxiety, as the company has faced stagnant revenue growth since its peak in 2021, with net profits fluctuating back to pre-IPO levels [9][26]. - The need to diversify away from reliance on sweet milk products is emphasized, as the company has been experiencing stagnation for three years, with a slight decline in performance from 2022 to 2024 [26][27]. Market Competition and Challenges - The upgraded AD Calcium Milk faces significant challenges in competing with established products like Wahaha's AD Calcium Milk, which has over 20 years of market presence [11][13]. - VitaYoung vitamin water, while positioned as a functional beverage, must contend with strong competitors such as Midea and Nongfu Spring, which dominate the vitamin drink market [14][20]. - The article highlights that simply launching new products may not resolve the current growth issues, especially if many of these products are imitative and lack strong market competitiveness [10][30]. Strategic Focus - Li Ziyuan's strategy involves clarifying its product direction, focusing on either extending its dairy product line or diversifying into beverage categories [10][31]. - The company aims to build a multi-product line and brand strategy, moving beyond its core sweet milk product to ensure sustainable growth [27][31]. - The article suggests that developing unique, high-potential products and enhancing brand building capabilities are critical for Li Ziyuan's success in its diversification efforts [32][33]. Future Directions - The company is exploring the possibility of becoming a supplier of private label products for retailers, leveraging its existing R&D and supply chain capabilities [34].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ziyuan celebrates its 30th anniversary, reflecting on its journey and outlining a vision for high-quality development in the future [1][3] Group 1: Company Achievements and Future Plans - Li Ziyuan has grown from three dairy cows in 1995 to five major production bases across China, establishing itself as a well-known brand in sweet milk [3] - By 2024, Li Ziyuan's core product, sweet milk, is expected to cover nearly 50% of the market share in the flavored dairy beverage sector [3] - The company aims to maintain market order and support its over 2,600 distributors to enhance market penetration and growth [3] Group 2: Brand Strategy and Product Development - In 2023, Li Ziyuan launched a brand renewal strategy, introducing a new slogan and updating its brand image to appeal to younger consumers [5] - The company has increased its investment in research and development, expanding its product range to over 60 varieties, including a zero-sugar sweet milk series and plant-based protein drinks [5][6] - Li Ziyuan's new product "VitaYoung" vitamin water features a unique formula with zero sugar, fat, calories, preservatives, flavoring, and color additives, aligning with health trends [6] Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Trends - The company is leveraging multi-channel marketing strategies to enhance brand visibility, including advertising in major urban areas and utilizing social media platforms [5] - Future consumer trends identified by the company include a focus on health, clean ingredients, and the preferences of Generation Z and the aging population [6] - Li Ziyuan plans to adopt a "young and diversified" brand strategy, aiming to create multiple growth curves through its main brand and a matrix of sub-brands [6]