文|新消费财研社 | 证券代码:605337 | 证券简称:李子园 公告编号:2025-068 | | --- | --- | | -------------------------- | A BOOK AND THE COLLECT COLLEGION | 近日，以甜牛奶为主业的李子园（605337.SH）发布公告，宣布终止云南子公司2亿元含乳饮料二期项目。这一原本计 划建设3条无菌灌装产线的投资，因"土地规划、产业规划等客观因素"搁浅。 尽管李子园强调"优化资源配置"，但财报数据与行业趋势揭示了更深层的隐忧。在健康消费浪潮下，李子园赖以生存 的高糖含乳饮料正遭遇前所未有的市场寒流，核心产品收入下滑、产能利用率不足、成本压力加剧，这家区域性乳饮 龙头正面临成立30年来最严峻的增长挑战。 健康风潮下核心业务失速，含乳饮料收入连续两年下滑 云南项目的终止标志着李子园产能扩张进入审慎期。截至 2025 年上半年，公司仍有5个在建项目，总预算15.8亿元， 预计2029年产能将达59.26万吨，较2024年增长58%。如何在需求疲软的背景下消化这些产能，已成为李子园管理层的 核心挑战。 李子园的困境始于其过度依赖的 ...

李子园近日发布公告称，终止全资子公司原本计划在云南投资的2亿元含乳饮料产线。官方对于项目终 止的解释为"土地规划、产业规划等有关客观因素"，但业内普遍认为与李子园的含乳饮料营收下滑、现 有产能未能充分利用有关。据了解，截至去年，李子园五座工厂的总产能为37.59万吨，实际利用产能 为24.88万吨，产能利用率仅为66%。2025年5月，李子园还宣布投资3.2亿元在宁夏新建包括全脂脱脂奶 粉在内的生产线。从含乳饮料到奶粉，李子园渴望开辟"第二增长曲线"，但奶粉市场的竞争十分激烈， 行业进入存量阶段，李子园要想突出重围难度不小。 叫停2亿元项目 此次李子园终止的产能项目自2022年开始筹划。2022年1月12日，李子园全资子公司云南李子园食品有 限公司与陆良县人民政府签署《投资合作协议》，拟在陆良工业园区青山片区云南李子园食品有限公司 北侧规划投资建设三条含乳饮料无菌灌装生产线，配套建设仓库等附属设施。项目总用地规模约89亩， 计划总投资约2亿元。而今年9月12日，云南李子园与陆良县人民政府签署《云南李子园含乳饮料（二 期）项目解除协议书》。 对于项目终止的原因，李子园方面在公告中解释称，"因土地规划、产业规划等 ...

李子园 20250827 摘要 李子园传统渠道受冲击，但零食量贩系统增长超 40%，特通渠道增长 20-30%，电商亦增长。公司调整渠道结构以应对市场变化，并积极拓 展新兴渠道。 公司推出维生素水新品，销售额约 2000 万元，主要在便利店和电商渠 道销售。计划明年拓展销售渠道，目标是将其培育成除含乳饮料外的第 二大单品。 原材料成本下降提升毛利率，但产能利用率偏低导致折旧成本增加，限 制了毛利率的提升幅度。公司通过锁定大包粉价格和自建喷粉厂控制未 来成本。 二代接班后，公司管理团队年轻化，销售团队也进行调整，50 岁以上业 务人员退居二线。产品战略上，继续以含乳饮料为主，同时拓展维生素 水等第二增长曲线。 7 月份销售额同比增长中个位数，毛利率同比增加 1.5 个百分点至 41.5%，净利润增长十多个百分点。预计下半年旺季销售收入将环比增 加。 Q&A 请简要介绍李子园公司 2025 年上半年的经营情况。 2025 年上半年，李子园公司的整体经营数据不太理想，营收出现了约 8%的下 滑。这主要受到市场大环境和消费复苏疲软的影响。此外，渠道碎片化对传统 流通渠道造成了较大冲击，如零食量贩、便利系统和电商的发展 ...

Summary of Li Ziyuan's Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall consumption market remains weak, particularly affecting traditional channels like supermarkets, which have seen a decline of over 10% in sales during the first half of the year. In contrast, emerging channels such as snack systems, convenience stores, and e-commerce have shown growth trends, with snack systems growing at a rate of 40% [2][3] Company Performance - Traditional channel sales have significantly declined, leading to a decrease in overall revenue. The company is adjusting its structure to strengthen cooperation with emerging channels, which have achieved double-digit growth, but their small proportion cannot offset the decline in traditional channels [2][5] - The company reported a net profit growth of 15%-16% year-on-year, with a non-recurring profit growth of about 5%-6%. Gross margin improved due to raw material cost advantages, but the decline in revenue in the second quarter led to increased manufacturing costs, resulting in a lower gross margin increase compared to the first quarter [2][7] New Product Performance - New products have outperformed older ones, with the nutrient water launched at the end of May achieving sales of approximately 15 million units. Over 40% of retail channel growth is attributed to new product contributions, including 380ml and 100ml sweet milk products [2][6] Sales Channel Expansion - The company is expanding modern sales channels, including snack systems, special channels (breakfast, small dining, etc.), and convenience stores. It is developing specialized products for vending machines to find new market increments and stabilize traditional channels [2][8] - The vitamin water product is being promoted primarily through traditional clients with school or convenience store resources, and e-commerce channels are leveraging events like the 618 shopping festival for promotion [4][10] Future Projections - The company aims to cultivate vitamin water as a second growth curve, targeting sales of several tens of millions this year and hoping to reach 200 million to 500 million in the coming years [10] - The company has locked in large package powder procurement until early next year, with a new spray powder factory expected to be operational by the end of the year, which will help secure raw material costs [4][23][24] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The e-commerce channel is expected to grow by 20%-30% this year, with significant investments in brand promotion, including new media and celebrity endorsements. The marketing budget is projected to be around 50 million to 60 million [20] - The company is also exploring partnerships with major supermarkets like Sam's Club, Hema, and Yonghui, with discussions ongoing for potential collaborations [22] Conclusion - The company is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on expanding into new channels and promoting new products to offset declines in traditional sales. The strategic emphasis on e-commerce and modern retail partnerships is expected to drive future growth.

Group 1: Pet-Friendly Restaurants - The rise of pet-friendly restaurants addresses the challenge of dining with pets, creating social spaces for pet owners [2] - These restaurants focus on hygiene, safety, and enhancing the overall dining experience while respecting all customers' needs [2] - The development of pet-friendly dining reflects a shift in the restaurant industry towards a more humanistic approach [2] Group 2: Beverage Industry Trends - The beverage industry is witnessing a shift towards "new demands, new products, and new channels," with consumers prioritizing value, emotional satisfaction, and health [3] - The cold beverage market is stabilizing, with low-sugar and no-sugar options becoming standard, and the no-sugar beverage market growing at a compound annual growth rate of 38.69% [5] - The energy drink market in China is expanding rapidly, with a market size of approximately 147.1 billion yuan in 2023, driven by health-conscious consumers [12] Group 3: Innovative Beverage Concepts - The "AI+" tea drink trend is gaining popularity among young consumers, with AI technology enhancing personalized beverage offerings [7] - The "light health" trend is driving the growth of the low-alcohol liquor market, with predictions of reaching 650 billion yuan by 2025 [6] - The vitamin water market is projected to reach around 20 billion yuan by 2025, with brands focusing on targeted nutritional supplements for young consumers [14] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competition - The competition in the carbonated beverage market is intensifying, with Sprite surpassing Pepsi in market share by appealing to Gen Z's low-sugar preferences [8] - The bakery market is being reshaped by supermarkets leveraging efficient supply chains and high-margin products, while specialized bakeries must differentiate themselves [10] - The entry of major players into the coconut water market is indicative of the growing demand for healthy beverage alternatives, with IFBH Limited achieving significant market share [23] Group 5: Strategic Developments in Companies - Baidu Dairy is attempting to go public, focusing on the niche water buffalo milk market, which faces challenges such as low production capacity and high costs [18] - Dongpeng Beverage is planning to expand into international markets while addressing its rising short-term debt [19] - The expansion of the Green Tea Restaurant chain aims to establish itself as a leading Chinese dining brand through standardized operations and market penetration [24]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the generational transition in the Chinese private economy, particularly in family-owned businesses, with over 80% being family-controlled and entering a critical succession phase [14] - Li Ziyuan's new general manager, Li Bosheng, represents a new chapter for the brand as he takes over management responsibilities, marking a significant generational shift [3][4] - The company has faced stagnation in revenue growth, primarily due to its heavy reliance on sweet milk products, which account for over 95% of its revenue, leading to a near-zero growth situation since 2021 [4][6] Group 2 - Despite holding a market share close to 50% in the sweet milk segment, Li Ziyuan's revenue has been under pressure due to the rising popularity of healthier beverage options, resulting in a five-year compound growth rate of only 6.4% [6][9] - New product launches, such as juice drinks and plant-based beverages, have not significantly contributed to overall revenue, indicating a lack of a successful "second growth curve" [9] - Li Bosheng's strategy includes diversifying product offerings and embracing new retail channels, with a focus on health-oriented products and e-commerce growth, leading to a 16.2% increase in net profit in early 2025 [10][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the broader trend of generational change in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, with many companies facing systemic challenges related to succession [14][20] - Examples of successful transitions include Master Kong, which saw a 19.8% increase in net profit under the leadership of the second generation, and Wahaha, which has restructured its operations under new leadership [16][18] - The strategic shifts observed during these transitions include moving from reliance on single products to a diversified product matrix, enhancing channel penetration, and leveraging data for decision-making [20][21][22]

Macro Strategy - The Federal Reserve did not lower interest rates in June and removed the judgment of higher unemployment and inflation from its statement, indicating a more stagflationary economic outlook [1][11] - The Fed revised down its GDP growth forecast for the US to 1.4% for Q4 2025 and raised the unemployment rate forecast to 4.5%, while also increasing the PCE inflation forecast to 3.0% [1][11] - The dot plot distribution has become more hawkish, with a significant number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year, reflecting concerns over inflation risks [1][11] Industry Analysis - The bus industry showed a year-on-year increase in production and exports in May, with Yutong Bus expected to achieve a net profit of 46.3 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 12% annually [6][16] - Jinlong Automobile is projected to have a significant profit rebound, with net profits expected to reach 4.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 182% increase [6][16] Recommended Stocks - Liyuanheng is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the lithium battery equipment industry, with a projected net profit of 0.6 billion yuan in 2025, and a corresponding PE ratio of 96 [7][17] - Zhenyu Technology is expected to see a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 63%, supported by its advancements in precision manufacturing and robotics [8][19] - Xiaogoods City has completed the招商 of its jewelry sector and plans to establish a Hong Kong subsidiary to enhance its cross-border payment ecosystem, with projected net profits of 42.3 billion yuan in 2025 [9][21]

Summary of Li Ziyuan's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ziyuan - **Industry**: Beverage, specifically focusing on functional drinks and vitamin water Key Points and Arguments Growth Strategy - **Vitamin Water as Growth Driver**: Li Ziyuan aims to establish vitamin water as a second growth curve with a sales target of 100 million yuan, leveraging modern channels, snack wholesale, and e-commerce platforms for promotion [2][5] - **E-commerce Performance**: E-commerce sales are projected to reach 10 million yuan in June, with a growth rate of 40%-50% in Q1 [2][16] - **Snack Wholesale Channel**: The company is rapidly developing the snack wholesale channel, targeting over 100 million yuan in sales this year [2][14] Product Development - **New Product Launches**: The company is introducing vitamin water with a "zero" additive concept, including 500ml and upcoming 250ml options, focusing on a simplified formula [3][4] - **Health and Nutrition Focus**: New products emphasize health and nutrition, targeting young consumers through brand ambassadors and innovative marketing strategies [9][10] Organizational Changes - **Management Restructuring**: A new generation of leadership has taken over, with a focus on brand upgrading, e-commerce team building, and new product development [7][9] - **Young Management Team**: The management team has been rejuvenated, with younger members taking key roles to enhance company vitality [7] Cost Management - **Cost Control Measures**: The company is focusing on controlling raw material costs, particularly large package powder, which constitutes 35%-40% of total costs, leading to improved gross margins [8] - **Profitability Outlook**: Overall profitability is expected to exceed revenue growth due to effective cost management [8] Market Trends - **Increased Demand for Health Products**: There is a growing market interest in fitness and health products, providing new opportunities for companies in this sector [10] - **Competitive Landscape**: The functional beverage market is becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on clean ingredient lists and health benefits [11][21] Sales and Marketing Strategies - **Brand Ambassador Strategy**: The company has signed actor Ding Yuxi as a brand ambassador, aiming to attract younger consumers while reducing traditional media spending [15] - **E-commerce Team Expansion**: Plans to expand the e-commerce team, particularly in live streaming and interest-based e-commerce, to support new product launches [17] Channel Development - **Diverse Sales Channels**: The company is expanding its presence in various sales channels, including breakfast and small dining sectors, which account for about 25% of total sales [19] - **Interest vs. Shelf E-commerce**: Interest-based e-commerce is driving significant growth compared to traditional shelf e-commerce platforms [18] Profitability and Market Position - **No Immediate Profit Expectations for New Products**: The company does not expect immediate profits from the vitamin water product this year, focusing instead on establishing market presence [23] - **Profit Margins for Distributors**: The pricing strategy ensures sufficient profit margins for distributors, maintaining competitive advantages in the market [22] Additional Important Insights - **Focus on Young Consumers**: The company is actively targeting young consumers through innovative product offerings and marketing strategies [9] - **Future Product Plans**: Continuous optimization of existing beverage products to meet diverse channel demands is a priority [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Beverage and Low-Alcohol Drinks - The beverage industry is expected to see single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth in 2024, with tea and functional drinks leading the way while carbonated drinks experience slowed growth [1][5] - Raw material cost advantages are becoming apparent, leading to a 1-2 percentage point increase in industry gross margins and a 1 percentage point increase in profit margins, with an improved competitive landscape [1][5] Company-Specific Insights Chengde Lululemon - Chengde Lululemon has a stable foundation with steady demand in the catering channel and potential for expansion in southern markets [1] - The company plans to invest 100 million in advertising for its health water product over the next two years and is adding PET production lines, expecting a profit of 700 million from its main business and 200-300 million from health water sales [1][18] - The stock is currently valued at 15 times earnings, lower than the industry average of 20 times, indicating potential for growth [18] Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng's energy drink business has maintained over 20% growth, with a target to surpass Huabin Red Bull by 2026 [1][10] - Rapid growth in water products is expected to generate 1.5 billion in revenue in 2024, with juice tea products achieving over 100 million in monthly sales as of May [1][11] - Revenue growth is projected at 35% and profit growth at 43% for 2025, with a current PE ratio of 35 times [15] Liziyuan - Liziyuan is in a low base period for Q2, with new vitamin water products contributing to growth, and a projected 10% decrease in costs for 2025 [1][7] - The company aims for 100 million in revenue from vitamin water in 2025, with an overall revenue growth forecast of 8% and profit growth of 15% [9] Bairun Co. - Bairun has seen nearly double-digit declines in April and May, leading to a cancellation of credit policies for distributors and a focus on inventory digestion [1][19] - The company plans to launch new products in its RTD series and has set a revenue target of 500 million for its whiskey business [19][20] Kuaijishan - Kuaijishan has shifted to a deep distribution model, with mid-to-high-end products now making up 67% of sales and gross margins increasing to 52% [3][23] - The company has seen significant growth in its Lanting series and 1,743 products, with sales targets set for 2025 [23][24] Xiangpiaopiao - Xiangpiaopiao is in a year of adjustment, focusing on inventory consumption in its brewing business while promoting Miko juice tea in its ready-to-drink segment [3][32] - The company plans to expand into new channels such as dining and snacks, with Miko juice tea achieving 800 million in revenue in 2024 [32][37] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The beverage industry is expected to continue benefiting from new product launches and seasonal demand peaks, particularly during promotional events like 618 [2] - Companies are focusing on cost control and channel expansion, with a notable shift towards online sales and deep distribution strategies [29][36] - The overall sentiment in the beverage sector remains optimistic, with several companies poised for growth despite current high valuations [4][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is expected to meet forecasts, with revenue projected at 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22%, and net profit at 224 million yuan, a decrease of 5.55% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is actively exploring new channels such as e-commerce, which saw a revenue increase of 90.46% in 2024, contributing to 5.4% of total revenue [3][5] - The new management is focusing on product innovation to attract younger consumers, with new products like AD Calcium Milk and Vitamin Water being introduced [5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a net profit margin of 15.8%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, but with a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 87%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, and intends to repurchase 4.33 million shares [2][4] - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 6% for 2027, with net profit growth of 14%, 11%, and 8% respectively [5] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from dairy beverages is expected to be 1.354 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while other income is projected to increase by 128% [3] - Revenue from different regions shows mixed results, with East China remaining stable, while Central China and Northeast China experienced significant declines [3] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20X for 2025, 18X for 2026, and 17X for 2027 [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.65 yuan, increasing to 0.78 yuan by 2027 [7][5]