今年大会上，品牌建设也被反复提及。在部分品类山寨现象仍存的背景下，元气森林强调将继续加 强品牌规范、渠道秩序和市场监管能力，以提升产品与运营体系的长期稳定性。管理层认为，品牌一致 性有助于降低渠道风险、提升经销商信心，并构筑更稳固的市场壁垒。 截至目前，元气森林的产品已进入全球 40 多个国家和地区。在社交平台，"全世界偶遇元气森 林"的分享正在增多，部分新品也在海外终端测试中获得初步反馈。唐彬森在大会尾声表示："我们坚定 相信中国市场，相信中国人会吃得更好、喝得更好。" 2025年11月17日，元气森林全国经销商大会在珠海闭幕。会上公布的数据显示，2025 年品牌整体 业绩同比增长26%，连续三年保持双位数提升，增速约为快消行业整体水平的四倍。在竞争加剧、消费 结构快速变化的行业环境中，这一表现尤为引人关注。 今年大会的一个关键信号，是产品力与研发体系的持续深化。根据尼尔森数据，气泡水、电解质 水、中式养生水、减糖茶等健康化饮品在2025年仍保持较高水平增长，这些恰是元气森林多年前便开始 深耕的赛道。今年，外星人电解质水同比增长 34%，冰茶系列同比增长 56%，维生素水增幅更达到 128%。在大会现场，唐 ...

眼看气泡水市场收缩，元气森林也变了。 "我叫唐彬森，无糖饮料的'唐'，元气森林的'森'"，2021年，元气森林创始人唐彬森在央视《对话》栏目中这样介绍自己，当时他的公司仅成立5年， 就创造出气泡水这一现象级大单品。 有零售店老板在与《国际金融报》记者交流中直言，"元气森林现在不高端了"，他指的是冰茶的定价，这是公司目前第二大单品。 公司在会上宣布一则战略调整，北海牧场将从集团主体中拆分独立，后续会引入经验丰富的管理团队，推动品牌独立运营，而元气森林将聚焦于饮料 产品的研发。 业绩方面，今年以来元气森林整体业绩同比增长26%，连续三年保持双位数增长。 据公开信息，2023年其就实现百亿规模，去年约117亿元，以此粗略推算，今年元气森林业绩将在140亿元以上。这一规模可以跻身中国饮料行业前 十，在同类上市公司中，怡宝母公司华润饮料的体量与之最接近。 与华润饮料不同的是，元气森林已不再依赖一款单品。"现在的产品组合更加多元、稳健，包含无糖产品、低糖减糖产品，产品结构也更有前景。"唐 彬森在经销商大会上如是说。 元气森林正努力减少对原有大单品气泡水的依赖，一个细节在于，经销商大会上展示了一批数据：外星人电解质水今年销 ...

Core Insights - Yuanqi Forest has achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years, outpacing the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry growth rate of 4.8% by four times [1] - The company has strategically positioned itself in the health-oriented beverage market, with significant growth in categories such as sparkling water, electrolyte water, and reduced-sugar tea [3] Group 1: Performance and Growth - In 2025, Yuanqi Forest reported impressive growth rates: Alien Electrolyte Water increased by 34%, Vitamin C Orange and Summer Black Grape Sparkling Water by 52%, Ice Tea series by 56%, and the Good Self series by 36%, with Vitamin Water achieving a remarkable 128% growth [3][5] - The brand's commitment to product innovation is evident through the use of advanced technologies, such as -196°C liquid nitrogen freezing for Ice Tea and a multi-formula approach for Alien Electrolyte Water [5] Group 2: Market Strategy and Partnerships - Yuanqi Forest emphasizes the importance of building partnerships with distributors to enhance market reach and efficiency, implementing a "five-in-one" digital system for precise promotions and inventory management [6] - The company has successfully created a feedback loop for product optimization based on market responses, ensuring that its offerings align with consumer needs [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Facing market challenges in 2026, the company plans to focus on core competencies and maintain a rigorous product testing mechanism to ensure quality [7] - Yuanqi Forest is confident in the potential of the Chinese market and aims to establish itself as a leading health beverage brand globally, with products already available in over 40 countries [7]

Core Insights - Yuanqi Forest announced a 26% year-on-year growth in overall performance for 2025, maintaining double-digit growth for three consecutive years, which is four times the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry average growth rate of 4.8% [1] Company Performance - The company has successfully validated the long-term value of the health beverage sector over five years, transitioning from early trial products like corn silk tea to successful offerings such as red bean and coix seed water [1] - Key product categories showing significant growth in 2025 include: - Alien Electrolyte Water: 34% growth year-on-year - Vitamin C Orange and Summer Black Grape Sparkling Water: 52% growth year-on-year - Ice Tea Series: 56% growth year-on-year - Good Free Series: 36% growth year-on-year - Vitamin Water: 128% growth year-on-year [1] Industry Trends - According to a Nielsen report, categories such as sparkling water, electrolyte water, traditional health drinks, and reduced-sugar tea are experiencing continued explosive growth, aligning with Yuanqi Forest's strategic focus on these core segments [1]

2025年11月17日，珠海召开的元气森林全国经销商大会上，一组亮眼数据引发行业关注：在快消行业整体增速仅4.8%的背景下，元气森林实现连续三年双 位数增长，2025年整体增速达行业平均水平的4倍，其中维生素水同比暴涨128%，冰茶系列增长56%，气泡水核心口味增长52%。创始人唐彬森以"慢即是 快"的产品哲学，揭开了这份稳健增长的密码："做饮料是个慢活，唯有沉下心打磨好产品，才能穿越市场周期，给中国人创造真正有爱的饮品。" 以 "慢"立根：产品主义穿越行业周期 如今的元气森林，早已摆脱"气泡水单品依赖"，成长为产品矩阵日趋成熟的稳健型品牌。经销商大会上，唐彬森用"产品组合更加稳健、产品结构更加有前 景、产品储备更加有信心"三个"更加"，诠释了品牌的成长底气。这份底气，源于对"什么火就做什么"的行业浮躁心态的拒绝，更源于对"有爱产品六原 则"的长期坚守。 这六项原则，构成了元气森林的产品底色："加一点"有益成分让饮水更具价值，"减一点"负担成分契合健康需求；以对待家人的细致精打细算做产品，以长 期陪伴的心态深耕用户体验；追求接近手工现做的原生口感，打造兼具美感与时代符号的包装设计。那些当初看似"缓慢"的决策— ...

Core Insights - Yuanqi Forest has achieved a 26% overall growth in performance, with specific product lines such as Alien Electrolyte Water and Vitamin Water showing significant increases of 34% and 128% respectively, indicating strong market demand and effective product strategy [1][4][10] Group 1: Product Performance - Alien Electrolyte Water grew by 34%, Vitamin Water by 128%, and the Ice Tea series by 56%, showcasing a robust product portfolio that exceeds market expectations [1][4] - The company has maintained double-digit growth for three consecutive years, attributed to a diverse product matrix that adapts to changing consumer preferences [1][3][10] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The CEO emphasized a "slow is fast" approach, highlighting the importance of patience and confidence in product development, which has been a key factor in the company's sustained growth [3][5] - Yuanqi Forest's 2026 strategy focuses on product quality and consumer trust, aiming to counter market uncertainties with reliable product offerings [3][10] Group 3: Market Positioning - The company is committed to a long-term strategy that prioritizes product quality over rapid trends, reinforcing its position in a competitive beverage market [6][10] - The emphasis on health-conscious products aligns with consumer trends towards lower sugar and functional beverages, appealing particularly to younger demographics [9][10] Group 4: Distribution and Feedback - The company is enhancing market presence through initiatives like the "Ark" project and a digital management system, which improve market control and product optimization based on consumer feedback [6][10] - Feedback from distributors indicates strong market performance for products like Alien Electrolyte Water and Ice Tea, which resonate well with health-conscious consumers [8][9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Yuanqi Forest plans to expand its product offerings and market reach, with products already available in over 40 countries, indicating a growing international presence [11] - The company aims to continue focusing on product innovation and quality to meet the evolving demands of consumers, ensuring sustainable growth in the beverage sector [10][11]

Macro Research - The report highlights the increasing divergence in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path due to the "data fog" caused by the U.S. government shutdown and the realities of economic and inflation trends. The expectation for a rate cut in December has been adjusted downward compared to pre-meeting expectations [2][3][26] - The report anticipates a continued preventive rate cut cycle, with U.S. Treasury yields slowing down, sustained support for U.S. stocks, a fluctuating U.S. dollar index, and an ongoing long-term bull market for gold [4][27] Food and Beverage Research - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 2025 growth has slowed to flat with slight increases, impacted by price inversion in series wines and some direct sales channels. The company aims for sustainable high-quality growth and has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6][7] - The report indicates that Moutai's Q3 revenue was CNY 398.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with net profit at CNY 192.24 billion, up 0.5%. The company is focusing on improving the quality of its financial reports and aligning with actual market demand [6][7] Paper and Light Industry Research - Hengan International is actively promoting product premiumization, with expectations for continued increases in sales prices. The decline in wood pulp costs is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity [9][10] - The report notes that Hengan's market share has generally improved over the past decade, with a focus on increasing the penetration of high-end products to counteract price competition. The company has launched various high-end wet tissue products, contributing to revenue growth [10][12] Transportation Research - Southern Airlines reported a counter-cyclical profit growth in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations and showing a trend of profitability. The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 23 billion, with a year-on-year increase of over 17% [13][14] - The report emphasizes that the airline's passenger load factor reached a record high of 85.9% in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand recovery and optimistic future profitability trends [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Views - The company's short-term performance continues to be under pressure, with distributors still in an adjustment phase. However, the current dividend payout ratio is favorable, and the report anticipates a recovery in the future [2][10]. - The report has revised the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.52, 0.57, and 0.62 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.61, 0.66, and 0.70 yuan. The target price is set at 13.00 yuan per share, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025E [10][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,412 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.6% from the previous year. However, a decline of 8.0% is expected in 2025 [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 237 million yuan for 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The net profit is expected to decline to 204 million yuan in 2025, a decrease of 9.1% [3][11]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 13.9% in 2023, decreasing to 11.8% by 2025 [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 8.51% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 5.93% [10]. - In Q3 alone, revenue declined by 8.46% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14.71%, down 1.44 percentage points from the previous year [10]. Product and Channel Performance - The revenue from dairy beverages saw a significant decline of 13.22% to 88.7 million yuan in the first three quarters. Conversely, other products experienced rapid growth, increasing by 123.11% to 81.736 million yuan, driven by new products like vitamin water [10]. - The distribution channel revenue decreased by 10.74% to 90.1 million yuan, while direct sales channels grew by 37.08% to 68.059 million yuan, attributed to the rapid growth of e-commerce [10]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.40 yuan per 10 shares for the first half of 2025, resulting in a total payout of 91.958 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 95.67% [10].

Summary of Li Ziyuan's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ziyuan - **Industry**: Food and Beverage Key Points Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Li Ziyuan's other business revenue reached approximately 80 million yuan, showing rapid growth and indicating initial success in product diversification [2][5] - The overall gross margin has been rising in 2025, but there was a 2.5 percentage point decline in Q3 due to revenue drop affecting scale effects [2][7] Product Development and Market Strategy - The vitamin water product line has not met expectations, but the company is committed to developing it as a second growth curve, focusing on systematic R&D and sales [2][4] - The classic product "Sweet Milk" faced revenue pressure in Q3, attributed to a broader decline in the consumer goods industry, but the company remains optimistic about its potential [3][4] E-commerce and Sales Channels - E-commerce channels have performed well due to new management's focus, key talent recruitment, and product differentiation strategies [2][9] - The snack wholesale channel is rapidly growing, with a dedicated department established to manage it, and customized products launched to support 2025 performance [2][11] Internal Improvements and Operational Efficiency - The company sees significant internal improvement opportunities, particularly in decision support and policy alignment to better respond to external changes [2][6] - Distributor profit margins are stable, and actions have been taken to control unauthorized sales [2][12] Future Projects and Investments - The new wooden project aims to self-supply milk powder to control costs and expand B-end business, with completion and production expected in early 2026 [2][8] - Convertible bond funds are allocated for working capital and infrastructure investments, with no plans to adjust the bond price [2][14] Market Trends and Consumer Preferences - The company is aware of varying consumer preferences across different markets, which influences new product development strategies [2][13] - The focus will be on developing new products with market-moving capabilities while considering regional consumption habits [2][13] Dividend Policy Outlook - The company aims to provide stable and slightly growing returns to investors, with dividends being prioritized unless significant investment plans arise [2][10] 2025 and 2026 Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company plans to correct previous shortcomings in channel development, expense allocation, and new product strategies, expecting overall improvement in 2026 [2][15]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ziyuan has announced the termination of a 200 million yuan dairy beverage project in Yunnan due to objective factors such as land and industrial planning, reflecting a cautious approach to capacity expansion amid declining demand for high-sugar dairy products [1][4][5] Company Summary - Li Ziyuan's core product, high-sugar dairy beverages, is facing significant market challenges, with revenue from dairy beverages declining for two consecutive years [4][6] - As of the first half of 2025, the company's dairy beverage revenue was 583 million yuan, down 11.19% year-on-year, accounting for 93.8% of total revenue [6] - The company has five ongoing projects with a total budget of 1.58 billion yuan, expecting capacity to reach 592,600 tons by 2029, a 58% increase from 2024 [5][12] - The company is experiencing a decline in core markets, with revenue in East and Central China dropping by 8.12% and 6.65%, respectively, and a net reduction of 415 distributors [6] Industry Summary - The health consumption trend has led to a shift away from high-sugar beverages, with nearly 80% of consumers now considering sugar content when purchasing drinks [6][7] - The ready-to-drink tea and low-temperature fresh milk markets are gaining popularity, with the ready-to-drink tea market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [7] - Li Ziyuan's production capacity utilization is low, with an overall utilization rate of only 66% as of 2024, highlighting the issue of overcapacity in the context of changing consumer preferences [7][8] Financial Summary - Li Ziyuan's interest-bearing debt reached 757 million yuan as of the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.79%, with an interest-bearing asset-liability ratio of 24.66% [8] - The company's gross margin has declined by 1.0 percentage points to 15.8% due to rising raw material costs, particularly from imported whole milk powder [8] - New product lines, including plant-based protein drinks and vitamin beverages, have not yet contributed significantly to revenue, with total revenue from non-dairy beverages at 35.83 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [9][11] Strategic Initiatives - To address supply chain risks, Li Ziyuan is investing 320 million yuan in a deep processing project for raw milk in Ningxia, aiming to reduce reliance on imports [8] - The company is also focusing on brand rejuvenation and expanding into new sales channels, with e-commerce revenue growing by 90.5% in 2024 [11] - Despite these efforts, traditional distribution channels still account for 95% of revenue, indicating a long road ahead for channel transformation [11]