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2025年9月宏观数据点评:内需放缓带动三季度GDP增速下行,四季度稳增长政策有望加力
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-10-20 06:10
Economic Growth - In Q3 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the first three quarters[1] - Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025 decreased by 0.5%, marking a historical low[16] - The average growth rate of social retail sales in Q3 was 3.4%, a decline of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter[14] Industrial Production - In September 2025, industrial added value grew by 6.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[9] - Cumulative industrial added value from January to September increased by 6.2%, surpassing the GDP growth rate[10] - The manufacturing sector's added value in September rose significantly, driven by a 3.8% increase in export delivery value[9] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment from January to September 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value[17] - Real estate investment from January to September 2025 fell by 13.9%, with a widening decline of 1.0 percentage point[19] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 1.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value[20] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in September 2025 grew by 3.0% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of retail sales from January to September was 4.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year[14] - Consumer confidence remains low due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market[14]
国家统计局权威解读“5.2%”!
券商中国· 2025-10-20 06:03
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the economic performance of China in the first three quarters of 2023, indicating a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate in the third quarter due to various external and internal factors [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Analysis - The GDP growth rates for each quarter are as follows: Q1 at 5.4%, Q2 at 5.2%, and Q3 at 4.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q3 [2][3]. - The total economic output in Q3 reached 35.5 trillion yuan, surpassing the projected total for the third-largest global economy in 2024 [2]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 371.535 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5%. However, excluding real estate development, the investment grew by 3.0% [5]. - Equipment investment has consistently maintained a growth rate above 10%, serving as a primary driver for overall investment growth [6]. - Industrial investment increased by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.1 percentage points to total investment growth [6]. Employment and Income - The average urban unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, with a slight decrease in September [8]. - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 32,509 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.1% year-on-year, and a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price changes [8]. Support for Economic Goals - Several favorable conditions are identified for achieving annual economic targets, including stable growth in the first three quarters and the emergence of new growth drivers from technological innovation [10][11]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index showed signs of recovery, indicating potential improvements in business conditions [11].
重要经济数据出炉!国家统计局详解
天天基金网· 2025-10-20 05:27
牛市来了还没上车?上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包,优选基金10元起投!限 量发放!先到先得! 国家统计局20日发布的最新数据显示,前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元,按不变价格计算, 同比增长5.2%,比2024年全年和2024年同期分别加快0.2、0.4个百分点。国家统计局表示,前 三季度经济运行稳中有进。实现全年预期目标有基础、有支撑。 分季度看,一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%,二季度增长5.2%,三季度增长4.8%。对于三季 度GDP增速有所回落,国家统计局新闻发言人称,主要是外部环境复杂严峻、国内结构调整压力较 大等因素共同作用的结果。 近期宏观调控进一步加大支持力度,比如,出台实施《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》、下达 第四批消费品以旧换新资金、加强"两重"项目组织调度等,有助于形成政策合力。专家普遍认为, 四季度宏观政策协同性和针对性将进一步提升,将推动2025年经济平稳收官。 工业生产较快增长 新动能稳步成长 前三季度,全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.2%。装备制造业增加值同比增长9.7%,高技术制 造业增加值增长9.6%,增速分别快于全部规模以上工业3.5和3.4 ...
重要数据出炉!国家统计局详解
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-20 05:03
国家统计局20日发布的最新数据显示,前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增 长5.2%,比2024年全年和2024年同期分别加快0.2、0.4个百分点。国家统计局表示,前三季度经济运行 稳中有进。实现全年预期目标有基础、有支撑。 分季度看,一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%,二季度增长5.2%,三季度增长4.8%。对于三季度GDP 增速有所回落,国家统计局新闻发言人称,主要是外部环境复杂严峻、国内结构调整压力较大等因素共 同作用的结果。 近期宏观调控进一步加大支持力度,比如,出台实施《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》、下达第四 批消费品以旧换新资金、加强"两重"项目组织调度等,有助于形成政策合力。专家普遍认为,四季度宏 观政策协同性和针对性将进一步提升,将推动2025年经济平稳收官。 工业生产较快增长 新动能稳步成长 服务零售增长较快 前三季度,社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.5%,增速比上年同期、上年全年分别加快1.2个、1.0个百分 点。 前三季度,全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.2%。装备制造业增加值同比增长9.7%,高技术制造业 增加值增长9.6%,增速分别快于全部规模以上工业 ...
稳定、增长、成长!前三季度我国经济运行展现强大韧性和活力
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-10-20 04:43
Economic Growth - China's GDP for the first three quarters of the year grew by 5.2% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience and vitality in economic operations [1][3] - The GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] Industrial Production - The industrial production saw a significant increase, with the value-added of large-scale industries growing by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - Manufacturing sector growth was recorded at 6.8%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [5] - Notable increases in production included 3D printing equipment (40.5%), industrial robots (29.8%), and new energy vehicles (29.7%) [5] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [8] - Sales of essential and some upgraded consumer goods showed strong growth, with significant increases in home appliances (25.3%), furniture (21.3%), communication devices (20.5%), and cultural office supplies (19.9%) [8] - Service retail sales also grew by 5.2% year-on-year [8] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with high-tech industries such as information services (33.1%), aerospace equipment (20.6%), and computer equipment (7.4%) showing robust investment growth [9] - Agricultural production remained stable, with the value-added of agriculture (planting) increasing by 3.6% [10] Service Sector - The service sector's value-added grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with modern services performing well [10] - Specific growth in information transmission, software, and IT services was recorded at 11.2%, while leasing and business services grew by 9.2% [10]
前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%,国家统计局权威解读
证券时报· 2025-10-20 04:15
权威解读。 10月20日,国家统计局发布数据显示,初步核算,前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.2%。分季度看,一季度国内生产总值 同比增长5.4%,二季度增长5.2%,三季度增长4.8%。从环比看,三季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。 国家统计局新闻发言人表示,受多种因素共同作用,三季度GDP增速回落,但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。三季度,我国经济总量达35.5万亿元,超过了 全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量;城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平,核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大,PPI降幅连续2个月收窄;货物进出口总额同比增长 6.0%,外汇储备连续2个月增加;经济转型升级态势持续。实现全年目标仍有较多有利条件。 多种因素共同作用致三季度GDP增速回落 初步核算,三季度GDP同比增长4.8%,增速比二季度回落0.4个百分点。 国家统计局新闻发言人表示,这主要是外部环境复杂严峻、国内结构调整压力较大等因素共同作用的结果。 从国际看,三季度以来,个别国家滥施关税冲击全球经贸秩序,单边主义、保护主义盛行,国际经贸增长不稳定不确定性加大,发展面临的外部环境更趋复 杂。 项目投资保持增长 投资结 ...
工业保持较快增长,三季度工业增加值同比增长5.8%|快讯
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-10-20 03:11
一个亮点是,制造业转型升级加快。前三季度,规模以上装备制造业和规模以上高技术制造业增加值分 别同比增长9.7%和9.6%,高于全部规模以上工业3.5和3.4个百分点。制造业投资同比增长4.0%,高于全 部固定资产投资增速4.5个百分点。 前三季度,汽车制造业、铁路船舶航空航天和其他运输设备制造业投资同比保持两位数增长。在创新投 入持续加力的驱动下,国内涌现出多个达到国际先进水平的通用大模型,天问二号成功发射,全球首台 原位可变径盾构机"变径一号"下线,众多科技领域实现突破。世界知识产权组织最新发布的报告显示, 2025年我国创新指数首次跻身全球前十,24个创新集群成为全球百强,入围数量连续3年居全球首位。 文/张智 10月20日,国家统计局发布数据显示,三季度,工业保持较好增长态势,增加值同比增长5.8%,拉动 经济增长1.7个百分点。信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业,租赁和商务服务业等现代服务业增长较 快,增加值分别同比增长11.7%和8.6%,合计拉动经济增长0.9个百分点。资本市场较为活跃,金融业增 加值同比增长5.2%,拉动经济增长0.4个百分点。以旧换新相关消费继续增长,暑期出行需求集中释 放,相关服 ...
国家统计局:前三季度GDP同比增长5.2% 三季度增长4.8%
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-10-20 02:39
Economic Overview - The national GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The GDP growth rates by quarter were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q3 [1] Agriculture - Agricultural value added grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with summer grain and early rice production totaling 178.25 million tons, an increase of 0.1% [2] - Livestock production saw a total output of 73.12 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year, with specific increases in pork, beef, and poultry [2] Industrial Production - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing growing by 6.8% [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors showed strong growth, with increases of 9.6% and 9.7% respectively [3] - In September, industrial value added grew by 6.5% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [3] Services Sector - The services sector's value added increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in information transmission and software services at 11.2% [4] - The service industry production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in September, indicating robust activity [4] Retail Sales - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, with urban retail sales at 3,168.38 billion yuan [5] - Online retail sales amounted to 1,128.30 billion yuan, a 9.8% increase, with physical goods online sales at 915.28 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 3,715.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% [7] - Infrastructure investment increased by 1.1%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 13.9% [7] Trade - Total import and export value reached 3,360.78 billion yuan, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports slightly declining by 0.2% [8] - In September, the total trade value was 404.36 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [8] Consumer Prices - The national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 0.8% [9] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6%, indicating a slight increase in underlying inflation pressures [9] Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first three quarters, with a slight decrease in September [10] - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 191.87 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [10] Income - Per capita disposable income reached 32,509 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.1% year-on-year [11] - Rural residents experienced a faster income growth rate compared to urban residents, with rural disposable income growing by 6.0% [11]
前三季度GDP公布!|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-20 02:30
国家统计局10月20日发布数据显示,初步核算, 2025年前三季度中国国内生产总值(GDP)1015036亿元 。按不变价格计算, 同比增长 5.2% 。前三季度经济运行稳中有进,高质量发展取得积极成效。 第二,尽管经济增速有所回落,但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。从增长水平看,我国三季度4.8%的经济增速水平仍明显高于多数主要经济 体,对于我们这么大体量的经济体尤为难能可贵。三季度经济总量达35.5万亿元,超过了全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。从就业物价 看,就业形势总体稳定,物价运行有所改善。三季度城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平,核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大,PPI降幅连续2个月收窄。 从国际收支看,保持总体平衡。三季度货物进出口总额同比增长6.0%,外汇储备连续2个月增加。从发展质量看,经济转型升级态势持续。三 季度,规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增速明显快于全部工业;信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长11.7%,比上年同期加快1.7 个百分点;机器人、3D打印设备等智能产品,绿色设备及绿色材料等产品产量持续较快增长。 国家统计局新闻发言人就2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况答记者问: 1.今年 ...
如何看三季度GDP增速有所回落、全年经济目标能否顺利实现?统计局回应
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-10-20 02:26
国家统计局网站消息,国家统计局新闻发言人就2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况答记者问。 1.今年以来,面对复杂环境中国经济运行情况如何?请问如何评价前三季度的经济运行总体表现? 答:今年以来,我国经济发展历程很不平凡。面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面,以习近平 同志为核心的党中央总揽全局、科学决策,各地区各部门沉着应对、狠抓落实,全国上下同心同德、共 克时艰,我国经济发展顶住压力,取得了难能可贵的发展成绩,经济运行持续保持总体平稳、稳中有进 发展态势。 第二,尽管经济增速有所回落,但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。从增长水平看,我国三季度4.8%的 经济增速水平仍明显高于多数主要经济体,对于我们这么大体量的经济体尤为难能可贵。三季度经济总 量达35.5万亿元,超过了全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。从就业物价看,就业形势总体稳定, 物价运行有所改善。三季度城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平,核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大,PPI降幅连续 2个月收窄。从国际收支看,保持总体平衡。三季度货物进出口总额同比增长6.0%,外汇储备连续2个 月增加。从发展质量看,经济转型升级态势持续。三季度,规模以上高技术制造业增加值 ...