计算机ETF（512720）跟踪的是CS计算机指数（930651），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及软件开发、IT 服务、硬件制造等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映计算机行业相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。该指数具有显著的成长性和技术导向性特征，能够较为全面地体现计算机行业的市场动态和发展趋 势。 财通证券指出，全球大模型正从"快问快答的生成模型"迈向"能推理、能行动的智能体"，行业焦点从基 准测试转向真实场景中改造用户行为与任务流程的能力。AI竞争重心从"跑分领先"转向"直达用户、驱 动行动"，能否将模型能力嵌入操作系统与超级App，将自然语言翻译为可执行动作成为核心。头部厂 商从追求算力堆砌转向算法与训练范式优化，构建具备长链条推理、自我反思与工具调用能力的"慢思 考"体系。AI正在重塑生产方式与人才结构，推动人类从"手工生产者"转向"任务设计者"。国内厂商如 DeepSeek通过开源路径实现高推理密度与低成本，豆包、千问、可灵等在入口和场景侧落地，形成"模 型—入口—算力"三线合围。未来核心竞争力将体现在思考链设计、行动链编排及对AI生产方式的驾驭 能力上。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

资料显示，秦宁（内蒙古）光电科技有限公司法定代表人为雷彪，成立于2023年，位于呼和浩特市，是 一家以从事计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本1000万人民币，并已于2025 年完成了天使轮，交易金额数千万人民币。 12月22日，天眼查融资历程显示，秦宁（内蒙古）光电科技有限公司近日获得"天使轮"融资，涉及融资 金额数千万人民币，投资机构为中赢创投。 来源：市场资讯 天眼查信息显示，秦宁（内蒙古）光电科技有限公司的股东为：刘红忠、内蒙古秦宁智能企业管理合伙 企业（有限合伙）、内蒙古秦宁基石企业管理合伙企业（有限合伙）、内蒙古秦宁迈纳企业管理合伙企 业（有限合伙）。 ...

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...

编者荐语： 转载自申万宏源证券上海分公司，仅供参考。近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资 金净流出额前三的行业为电子、电力设备和计算机。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1.主力资金： 近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资金净流出额前三的行业为电子、 电力设备和计算机。 2.融资融券数据 ：当前市场融资融券余额为24993.66亿元，较上期上升0.62%，其中融资余额24825.56亿元，融券余额168.09亿元。本期两融日均交易额为 1888.46亿元，较上期上升9.41%，其中融资日均净买入1881.21亿元，较两周前上升9.48%，融券日均净卖出7.24亿元，较上期下降5.15%。近两周融资净买 入前三的行业分别为电子、国防军工和通信；融券净卖出前三的行业分别为食品饮料、医药生物和基础化工。 3.涨跌情况： 近两 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The unexpected decline in the US CPI for November is attributed to statistical "distortion" due to government shutdown disruptions, with a shorter data collection period and promotional season affecting price statistics [1] - The market's reaction to this "distorted" data is limited, with a high probability of maintaining interest rate pauses at 72.3% until further data is released in December [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - Historical trends indicate a "spring rally" in the A-share market, driven by monetary policy adjustments and significant economic data releases, suggesting a potential upward market movement [2] - The recent strong market performance may signal the beginning of the 2026 cross-year rally, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation [2] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs has seen a continuous decline, with a weighted REITs index return of -2.74% for the week [3] - The issuance of credit bonds has decreased, with industrial bonds accounting for 44.07% of the total issuance, reflecting a 12.44% week-on-week decline [4] Group 4: Industry Research - Computer Sector - The global tech investment enthusiasm remains strong, with a structural differentiation between "strong computing power" and "weak applications," suggesting a focus on AI applications in 2026 [7] - Three main investment lines are recommended: industry empowerment, overseas application, and edge AI, highlighting companies with strong industry know-how and high overseas revenue [7] Group 5: Non-Banking Sector Insights - In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets have become crucial for insurance companies to enhance investment returns, with a record high of 9.3% equity asset ratio among five listed insurers [8] - The proposed regulatory framework aims to improve asset-liability management in insurance companies, enhancing long-term operational resilience [9] Group 6: Energy Sector Developments - In November, power generation increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with improvements in nuclear, solar, and wind energy growth rates [10] - The storage and hydrogen sectors are expected to see continued investment opportunities, driven by ongoing demand and new project launches [11] Group 7: Metal Industry Analysis - The copper market is expected to see price increases, supported by a tight supply-demand balance and rising commercial net long positions [12] - Investment recommendations include companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on potential risks from economic conditions and supply releases [12] Group 8: Chemical Industry Insights - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing accelerated growth due to AI and data center demands, with a focus on high-purity materials [14] - Companies with technological advantages and strong customer ties in high-end materials are recommended for investment [14] Group 9: Medical Sector Developments - Ant Group's AI health assistant has rapidly gained popularity, transforming healthcare management through a digitalized approach [15] - Investment focus includes AI and home medical devices, offline health check-ups, and pharmaceutical retail [15] Group 10: Company-Specific Research - Taihe Co., Ltd. is recognized for its leading technology and capacity in core products, with significant profit growth expected from new product registrations [16] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.55 billion, 5.64 billion, and 6.83 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 33.67 yuan [16] Group 11: Media Sector Insights - The advertising demand from internet clients remains strong, with potential revenue growth from new business initiatives [17] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards, reflecting cautious optimism amid macroeconomic conditions [17] Group 12: TMT Sector Developments - Xiaomi's long-term AI strategy emphasizes substantial R&D investments, indicating a commitment to sustainable growth in AI applications [18] - The company is projected to achieve non-IFRS net profits of 426 billion, 438 billion, and 510 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [18] Group 13: Medical Device Sector Insights - The company is a leader in the interventional field, with significant revenue growth from overseas and peripheral products [19] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted due to potential policy impacts, with expected net profits of 6.33 billion, 7.05 billion, and 8.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global technology investment enthusiasm will remain strong in 2025, but there will be a structural differentiation characterized by "strong computing power, weak applications" [2] - Major global tech giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, benefiting upstream computing chips and supporting hardware, while the computer/software sector faces three pressures: 1) Software companies' revenue growth is overall lower than that of the computing chain; 2) Software company valuations are not cheap compared to hardware; 3) Concerns about "large models consuming software" continue to grow [2] - By Q3 2025, domestic public funds are underweight in the computer sector by 1.7 percentage points [2] Group 2 - In 2026, AI applications are expected to break through as computing costs are projected to continue declining, paving the way for application prosperity [3] - There are three major opportunities for AI applications in China: deepening industrial applications, expanding overseas, and reconstructing edge-side AI [4] - China possesses the world's only complete industrial system, providing high-value real-world data, application scenarios, and energy supply, which will generate diverse agent forms [4] - AI application expansion overseas is a strategy for domestic AI product teams to leverage "extreme efficiency + global pricing," with overseas revenue growth generally outpacing domestic [4] - Internet giants and AI startups are actively exploring edge-side forms in the AI era, with high growth potential for related products as hardware and algorithms mature [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of December 19, the latest market financing balance reached 24,871.33 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 45.77 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with 15 out of 31 industries showing an increase in financing balance [1] Industry Analysis - **Industries with Increased Financing Balance**: - The electronics industry saw the largest increase, with a financing balance up by 14.09 billion yuan, totaling 3,703.59 billion yuan [1] - Other notable increases were in the defense and military industry (up 10.06 billion yuan), non-ferrous metals (up 9.46 billion yuan), and telecommunications (up 8.22 billion yuan) [1] - **Industries with Decreased Financing Balance**: - A total of 16 industries experienced a decrease, with the computer industry seeing the largest drop of 2.62 billion yuan, followed by transportation (down 2.61 billion yuan) and real estate (down 1.73 billion yuan) [1][2] - **Percentage Changes**: - The retail trade industry had the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.38%, followed by defense and military (1.16%) and non-ferrous metals (0.79%) [1] - Conversely, the industries with the largest percentage decreases included comprehensive services (-0.76%), transportation (-0.63%), and beauty care (-0.60%) [1][2] Detailed Financing Balance Data - **Top Industries by Latest Financing Balance**: - Electronics: 3,703.59 billion yuan - Defense and Military: 875.91 billion yuan - Non-ferrous Metals: 1,209.40 billion yuan - Telecommunications: 1,186.82 billion yuan - Retail Trade: 291.23 billion yuan [1] - **Industries with Notable Decreases**: - Comprehensive: 47.91 billion yuan - Transportation: 415.05 billion yuan - Real Estate: 360.42 billion yuan - Computer: 1,757.90 billion yuan [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of December 19, the total margin financing and securities lending balance on the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 7.754 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 38.75 million yuan from the previous trading day, indicating a growing interest in margin trading [1]. Group 1: Margin Financing Details - The margin financing balance was 7.754 billion yuan, up by 38.69 million yuan from the previous day, while the securities lending balance was 35.17 million yuan, increasing by 56,800 yuan [1]. - The stocks with the highest margin financing balances included Jinbo Biological (392 million yuan), Shuguang Digital (367 million yuan), and Better Ray (323 million yuan) [1]. - The average margin financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization for these stocks was 1.35%, with the highest ratios seen in Audiwei (4.54%), Haidar (3.99%), and Shisheng Intelligent (3.53%) [1]. Group 2: Net Buying and Selling Trends - On December 19, 166 stocks experienced net margin buying, with 43 stocks having net buying amounts exceeding 1 million yuan. The top net buying stock was Binhang Technology, with a net buying amount of 15.56 million yuan [2]. - Other notable net buying stocks included Hechang Polymer (8.52 million yuan) and Hanxin Technology (5.42 million yuan) [2]. - The stocks with the highest net selling amounts were Tianli Composite (15.40 million yuan), Gebijia (14.99 million yuan), and Naconoer (9.56 million yuan) [1]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The industries with the most stocks receiving net buying over 1 million yuan included machinery equipment, power equipment, and basic chemicals, with 9, 9, and 7 stocks respectively [2]. - The average increase for stocks with net buying over 1 million yuan was 1.21%, with notable gainers being Hanxin Technology (10.02%), Changfu Shares (7.46%), and Binhang Technology (7.37%) [2]. - The average turnover rate for these stocks was 7.07%, significantly higher than the overall average turnover rate of 4.01% for the Beijing Stock Exchange on that day [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services sector [11]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the darkest period has passed, and AI is driving a new round of transformation cycles. Cost reduction is driving profit recovery, while insufficient demand remains a core contradiction in the sector. The revenue growth rate for the sector is expected to remain low from 2022 to 2024, with a weak recovery anticipated in 2025. The apparent profit growth is significantly driven by cost control measures [7][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry is experiencing a weak recovery in 2025, with total revenue reaching 482.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The contract liabilities in the computer industry reached 95.57 billion yuan by Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [20][23]. AI and Application Focus - The report emphasizes that the current narrative in the sector revolves around the application of AI. The AI application monetization is still in its early stages, and the focus should be on application giants and foundational resources. The competition in the model side is intensifying, with leading models like GPT-5 and Gemini-3 exploring commercial monetization paths [7][9]. Infrastructure and Resource Allocation - The report highlights that the AI-driven arms race is beneficial for foundational resources, particularly in cloud computing and domestic computing power. Major companies are increasing capital expenditures (Capex) to enhance future competitiveness rather than immediate profits. The domestic token market is expected to see significant growth in the coming year, further boosting demand for computing power [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the computer sector has undergone various phases in 2025, including "main line convergence" and "wide fluctuations." As of December 14, 2025, the Yangtze Computer Index has risen by 17.7%, ranking 16th among primary industries [7][33]. Profitability and Valuation - The apparent profit growth for the computer industry in Q1-Q3 2025 reached 12.41 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 184.0% year-on-year. The industry’s gross profit margin stabilized at 31.71%, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. The report indicates that the overall valuation of the sector remains relatively high, with the latest PE-TTM at 65.31 times, placing it in the 86th percentile since 2016 [23][26]. Application and Model Development - The report stresses the importance of digital infrastructure as a prerequisite for AI implementation. It identifies potential early adopters in various sectors such as creative industries, customer service, e-commerce, recruitment, taxation, multimodal applications, and judicial scenarios [9][49]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for AI, with significant advancements in model capabilities and task performance. The competition among major players is expected to intensify, leading to a critical period for market share acquisition [9][49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recovery and growth potential of the consumer sector, driven by policy support and increasing consumer demand during the traditional consumption peak season [1][5][6] - The consumer sector index showed signs of stabilization and rebound, with a 1.33% increase on December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The consumer market is expected to see double-digit growth over the next two years, with retail sales projected to rise from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [5][6] Group 2 - The consumer sector is currently experiencing a valuation adjustment, with the consumer index's latest price-to-earnings ratio at 23.29, significantly below the 10-year average of 28.56 [6] - Institutional predictions indicate that the net profit growth for the consumer sector index constituents is expected to exceed 14% in 2026 and 2027, with a projected total net profit of nearly 460 billion yuan for 2025 [6] - A total of 87 stocks in the consumer sector have seen an average increase of over 28% this year, with significant contributions from the electronics and biopharmaceutical sectors [8] Group 3 - Notable stocks such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology) and 迈瑞医疗 (Mindray) have received substantial institutional attention, with the former seeing a 22.91% increase in stock price and over 1,600 institutional surveys this year [9][11] - The financing balance for the consumer sector stocks has increased by over 45% compared to the end of last year, with more than 70% of the stocks receiving additional financing [8][11] - Companies like 东鹏饮料 (Eastroc Beverage) are expanding their product lines and exploring overseas markets, indicating a strategic focus on growth and market penetration [10]