转自：证券日报 连日来，宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司宜春锂矿项目停产的消息备受关注，并扰动近期碳酸锂价 格，资本市场反应强烈。 据民生证券研究院预测，2025年，全球锂矿的总需求是155.1万吨LCE（碳酸锂当量）；全球总供给为 174.3万吨LCE。国内锂供给主要来自江西云母提锂和青海盐湖提锂，预计两地2025年总供给分别为16.4 万吨LCE、17万吨LCE，江西、青海若因矿证不合规问题或变更矿种的整改过程中发生减停产事件，供 给端或将受到一定的影响。 民生证券金属行业首席分析师邱祖学对记者表示，当前锂价位于底部区间，成本支撑显现，高成本项目 将继续出清。伴随需求端的超预期兑现，碳酸锂价格持续反弹，行业格局有望显著改善。投资者需理性 看待宜春项目等停产影响，避免"过热"解读。 多位分析师认为，从需求端来看，尽管停产消息能在一定程度上提振碳酸锂价格，但基本面并未出现太 大变化。宁德时代宜春项目等停产对碳酸锂价格影响较为有限。 万联证券投资顾问屈放对记者表示，短期内，随着矿权整改的持续推进，锂矿开采和加工环节的产能释 放将受到抑制；中长期来看，行业将向低成本、规模化、绿色化方向转型，具备资源和技术优势的锂矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxi Yichun Jianshawa lithium mine due to the expiration of its mining license marks a significant turning point for China's lithium industry, indicating a shift from rapid, unregulated growth to a focus on high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Jianshawa mine is one of the largest lithium mica mines in the Yichun region, which is a key area for lithium extraction in China, contributing approximately 25% of the country's lithium carbonate production [1]. - The mine has a lithium oxide resource of 2.6568 million tons, equivalent to about 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - In July, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau mandated eight lithium mining companies, including Ningde Times' Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., to complete resource verification reports by the end of September [2]. - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, emphasizes protective mining practices for strategic mineral resources, with the Ministry of Natural Resources overseeing the registration and approval of specific mineral extractions [2]. - The tightening of regulatory policies aims to prevent unhealthy competition and enhance the market's ability to eliminate inefficient production capacities [2].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 12 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 护铝 | 豆粕 | | 直海 | 沪银 | 鸡蛋 | | 沪铝 | 焦炭 | 郑棉 | | 菜油 | 菜粕 | 흐드 | | PTA | 橡胶 | 铁矿石 | | 塑料 | 炉金 | 沥青 | | 螺纹钢 | 沪锡 | 直一 | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened with narrow fluctuations, with the three major indices showing mixed results, while cryptocurrency-related stocks surged significantly, with BitMine Immersion rising over 35% [1][3] - The lithium mining sector also saw strong performance, with Sigma Lithium up over 16% and Lithium Americas up over 8% [3] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The rise in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including continuous institutional inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][4] - Analysts expect Bitcoin to potentially break its historical high this month due to a positive macroeconomic outlook supporting risk assets [1] Group 3: Institutional Interest and Investment Trends - Large investors are increasingly interested in cryptocurrencies, with nine Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. attracting over $6.7 billion in net inflows this year [6] - Companies focusing on accumulating cryptocurrencies have also contributed to the price increases of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with digital asset financial companies holding approximately $113 billion in Bitcoin reserves and around $13 billion in Ethereum [6] Group 4: Future Projections and Sentiment - Analysts predict that Ethereum may reach new historical highs more easily than Bitcoin, especially if the weekly closing price exceeds $4,100 [5] - The sentiment in the options market reflects bullish expectations for Ethereum, with a put-call ratio of 0.39 and significant concentration of call options at a $6,000 strike price [6] Group 5: Notable Institutional Moves - Harvard Management Company has made substantial investments in Bitcoin ETFs, acquiring 1.9 million shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF valued at $116.7 million [7] - The Trump family is also exploring cryptocurrency investments, with discussions around a company that would hold WLFI tokens [7]

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxi Yichun Jianshawa lithium mine due to the expiration of its mining license marks a significant turning point for China's new energy industry, indicating a shift towards high-quality development and regulatory tightening in the lithium market [1][2]. Group 1: Mining Operations and Regulatory Changes - The Jianshawa mine, one of the largest lithium mica mines in Yichun, is crucial as Yichun produces about 25% of China's lithium carbonate [1]. - The mine was acquired by CATL for 865 million yuan, with lithium oxide resources amounting to 2.6568 million tons, equivalent to approximately 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate [1]. - The suspension of operations is part of a broader regulatory tightening, with the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau requiring eight lithium mining companies to complete resource verification reports by the end of September [2]. Group 2: New Regulations and Market Implications - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, emphasizes protective mining for strategic mineral resources, with the Ministry of Natural Resources overseeing the registration and approval of specific mining activities [2]. - The tightening of regulations aims to prevent cutthroat competition in the lithium market and to facilitate the exit of inefficient production capacities [2].

现货价格大幅上涨 华夏时报记者叶青北京报道 8月11日，商品期货多数收涨，多晶硅涨超6%，工业硅涨超4%。受供应扰动消息影响，碳酸锂期货强势涨停，主力LC2511合约涨幅达8%，报收于81000 元/吨。业内人士表示，早盘碳酸锂期货直接封涨停板，现在市场最关注的是，接下来还有几个涨停板？ "近期围绕锂矿企业停产的消息持续发酵，8月9日宁德时代（300750）枧下窝矿确定停产，这一消息意味着碳酸锂月度供需逻辑发生重大转向，由过剩转 向平衡，后期有进一步向紧缺转化的可能。当前除宁德时代外，宜春市点名的其余涉锂矿山经营暂时正常。"方正中期新能源首席研究员魏朝明接受《华 夏时报》记者采访时表示。 近年来海外储能项目持续增长，上半年中国储能企业出海也交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。据CNESADataLink全球储能数据库的不完全统计，1—6月，中国 储能企业新增海外订单163GWh(吉瓦时)，同比增长246%，50余家涉及出海的企业业务覆盖全球50余个国家和地区。 "作为长期投资碳酸锂期货的投资者，对于此次停产事件并不意外，自7月初宜春自然资源局发送《宜春市自然资源局关于编制储量核实报告的通知》后， 宁德枧下窝8月9日采矿证 ...

停产"靴子"落地，让之前纷扰市场的各种"小作文"不攻自破。此后，市场情绪开始发酵。 8月11日，宁德时代在互动平台表示，公司在宜春项目的采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，获得批复后 将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司整体经营影响不大。 业内人士认为，尽管当前宁德时代枧下窝矿区已确定停产，但该消息已被市场充分计价，停产的实际影响有待进一步观察，投资者应理性看待各类消息。 "宁德时代枧下窝项目停产主要对市场情绪产生扰动，强化了碳酸锂价格的底部支撑。"富宝锂电分析师苏津仪认为，鉴于当前基本面尚未发生根本性逆 转，需警惕市场情绪推升价格后可能出现的理性回调，后续价格走势需观察实际需求与供应的匹配程度。 8月11日，碳酸锂期货午盘收盘全线涨停，主力合约涨8%，报81000元/吨。与此同时，A股锂电池板块大幅高开，天齐锂业、赣锋锂业等个股均涨停。 | | 最新 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 2508 | 79000 | +6.53% | | 期货 c2508 | | | | 碳酸锂 2509 | 80560 | +7.99% | | 期货 c250 ...

锂矿概念股，再迎高光时刻。 8月11日，期货市场刚一开盘，碳酸锂期货所有合约便全线涨停，涨幅达8%，并一举拉动多晶硅、工业硅等多个反内卷工业 品期货品种大涨。 随着市场对"反内卷"向上游传导的预期持续共振，叠加之前所关注的枧下窝矿到期临时停产预期兑现，锂矿股迎来罕见全 面飙涨。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)� | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 碳酸锂2511 | 81000 | +8.00% | 30.80亿 | | വ 多脂硅2511 | 25882 | +6.34% | 915.0亿 | | 3 工业硅2511 | 9000 | +4.83% | 296.1亿 | | 4 红枣2601 | 11685 | +3.32% | 215.2亿 | | 5 焦煤2601 | ■1256.0 勾股大数据.99% | | 1743亿 | | 6 合成橡胶2... | 11785 | +2.48% | 81.21亿 | | 7 棕榈油2509 | 9218 | +2.29% | 515.1亿 | | မာ 突破2509 | 2492 | +2.26% | 148.3亿 | ...

碳 酸锂期货主力合约走势图 电 池级碳酸锂价格走势图（单位：元/吨） "宁王"的主动回应，让市场传言多日的"宁德时代宜春锂矿停产"一事尘埃落定，碳酸锂供给收缩的预期 更让期货及股票市场欢呼雀跃。 8月11日早间，宁德时代回应称，公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停开采作业。受此影 响，A股锂矿板块当日开盘普涨，天齐锂业、江特电机、盛新锂能等多只个股涨停。 碳酸锂期货所有合约开盘全线涨停，其中主力合约涨幅为8%，收报81000元/吨。现货市场上，电池级 碳酸锂报价8月11日上涨2600元/吨，均价报74500元/吨，单日涨幅达3.62%。 "宁王"宜春锂矿的暂停作业，真的能改善碳酸锂供强需弱格局吗？ "停产短期内确实有影响，但从目前市场表现看，更多的还是期货炒作带来的情绪。"宜春当地某碳酸锂 生产企业人士称，宁德时代宜春项目停产前的实际产量并没有外界想象的那么大，且采矿证获批恢复生 产只是时间问题。中长期来看，锂价上涨会带动其他企业的生产热情，叠加澳大利亚、非洲的产品补 充，整体供给或许并不会减少。 "宁王"宜春锂矿停产影响有限 "宁德时代宜春锂矿项目停产的影响大家都看到了，就是带动了碳酸锂期货和现货价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant price increases due to supply disruptions, particularly following the suspension of operations at the Jiangxia Mine by CATL, which has shifted the supply-demand balance from surplus to potential shortage [1][2][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The suspension of lithium mining operations at CATL's Jiangxia Mine is expected to lead to a monthly supply reduction of 0.9 million tons, altering the monthly supply-demand dynamics [3]. - The current market sentiment is focused on the potential for further price increases, with futures prices reaching 81,000 yuan/ton, marking an 8% increase [1][2]. - Analysts predict that the lithium battery demand growth rate could reach 16%-21% by 2026, indicating a recovery phase for profitability in the lithium battery and related sectors [2]. Price Trends - The spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate have risen to between 73,000 and 76,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade prices range from 71,600 to 73,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the upward trend in futures prices [3]. - The market is currently in a peak stocking phase, with strong demand from overseas energy storage projects contributing to the price increases [4]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of July 2025, the monthly inventory of lithium carbonate at Chinese smelters has decreased by 13% to 34,730 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - Recent data shows that lithium production has increased, with a weekly output of 19,556 tons, but concerns remain about the stability of production from various mining operations [6]. Import and Export Trends - Despite rising domestic prices, lithium ore imports have declined, with June figures showing a 4.81% decrease to 57.59 million tons [7]. - The import dynamics reveal a mixed performance, with Australian imports decreasing by 31.21%, while imports from Brazil have surged by 165.93% [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is bullish, with expectations of further price increases due to the supply constraints and heightened investor interest [8]. - Analysts caution that while the current market conditions favor price increases, there is a need for caution regarding potential corrections following speculative trading [9].