2025 年 8 月 25 日 鲍威尔鸽派提振 铝价震荡偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转 鸽，市场开始演绎降息交易，美元走弱，同时欧美制 造业PMI皆有回暖，需求预期略有修复。基本面，电 解铝产能仍然主要为产能置换，整体开工变化不大。 消费端即将进入旺季下游补库意愿上升，同时周初 铝价一度回落，下游接货积极性抬升。周内铝锭社会 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Different commodities are expected to have different trends such as range - bound trading, upward trends, or downward trends [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The JH meeting saw Powell adopt a dovish stance. Gold prices showed certain movements, with Comex gold 2510 rising 1.00% to 3417.20. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is expected to reach the previous high. Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the dollar falling, copper prices rose. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.18% to 78,650, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.16% to 22275, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][14][17]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.21% to 16780, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][20][24]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation has slowed down. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20630, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: It is in narrow - range bound trading. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,610, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in short - term low - level range - bound trading. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,750, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related**: No direct crude oil analysis, but related products are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend is obvious, and the short - term strength will continue [2][55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market has a slight rebound [2][55]. - **LPG**: Import costs provide support, but the supply - demand situation lacks obvious improvement [2][51]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has been boosted, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in range - bound trading, and the strategy is to go long on dips. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **PTA and PX**: They are both in an upward - trending state and suitable for positive spreads. PX rose 0.11% to 6966, and PTA rose 0.16% to 4868 [2][59]. - **MEG**: It is in an upward - trending state, rising 0.02% to 4474 [2][59]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The negative impact of the US soybean oil SRE has been digested, and international oil prices have risen [2][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in high - level range - bound trading [2][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans rose slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][65]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors, and the trend intensity is 2 [2][41][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are both in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][52][54]. - **Log**: It is in repeated fluctuations, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][55][58].

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on Shanghai Aluminum (August 18 - 22) - Author: Zhu Senlin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, adjusted, and declined last week, with the main contract falling 0.67% to close at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - Under the goal of carbon neutrality, long - term capacity control, weak demand in the domestic real estate market, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices [3] - Domestically, demand has entered the off - season, waiting for consumption to recover [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract declined 0.67% last week, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - LME inventory was 478,725 tons last week, showing a slight decrease from the previous week, while SHFE weekly inventory increased by 3,952 tons to 124,605 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.6 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.3 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [10] 2.2 Other Elements - The report also mentions aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but specific content is not detailed [6] 3. Market Structure - The market structure section includes the analysis of the basis and import profit, but specific data is not provided [25]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has given a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), predicting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of HKD 29.0, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 81.039 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%; gross profit reached CNY 20.805 billion, a significant increase of 16.9%, with a gross margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 25.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.361 billion, reflecting a strong year-on-year growth of 35.0%, with a net profit margin increase of 3.1 percentage points to 16.7% [1] - Basic earnings per share surged by 36.0% to CNY 1.31 [1] Group 2: Cost Advantages and Operational Efficiency - The company benefits from stable upstream bauxite supply, with 75.3% sourced from Guinea, ensuring raw material cost advantages [2] - Midstream, the electrolytic aluminum sales reached 2.906 million tons, with a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, driven by optimized energy structure, low-carbon technology reducing energy consumption, and digital empowerment [2] - Downstream, aluminum alloy processing sales were 392,000 tons, with revenue growth of 6.5% to CNY 8.074 billion, achieving bulk delivery of high value-added products [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the global electrolytic aluminum market showed a tight balance between supply and demand, with China's primary aluminum production accounting for approximately 59.7% of global output and consumption at 62.6%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.2% and 1.1% respectively [3] - Growth in sectors such as power grids, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles has significantly contributed to domestic demand [3] - It is expected that electrolytic aluminum prices will remain in the range of CNY 20,600 to 21,300 per ton, while alumina prices will be between CNY 3,200 and 3,300, indicating an overall trend of rising prices due to supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having repurchased 1.87 billion shares for HKD 2.61 billion in the first half of the year, which directly enhances earnings per share [4] - The company has committed to maintaining the dividend payout ratio at the 2024 level for 2025 and announced a new repurchase plan of no less than HKD 3 billion, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future development [4]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has issued a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), predicting revenue growth from 156 billion RMB in 2025 to 167.4 billion RMB in 2027, with net profit increasing from 24.5 billion RMB to 25.8 billion RMB during the same period, and a target price of 29.0 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 81.039 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with gross profit reaching 20.805 billion RMB, up 16.9%, and a gross margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 25.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.361 billion RMB, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 35.0%, with a net profit margin increase of 3.1 percentage points to 16.7% [2] - Basic earnings per share surged by 36.0% to 1.31 RMB [2] Group 2: Cost Advantages and Operational Efficiency - The company benefits from a stable supply of bauxite, with 75.3% sourced from Guinea, ensuring raw material cost advantages [3] - The midstream electrolytic aluminum sales reached 2.906 million tons, with a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, driven by optimized energy structure, low-carbon technology, and digital empowerment [3] - Downstream aluminum alloy processing sales were 392,000 tons, with revenue growth of 6.5% to 8.074 billion RMB, highlighting the successful delivery of high-value-added products [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global electrolytic aluminum market showed a tight balance between supply and demand in the first half of 2025, with China's primary aluminum production accounting for approximately 59.7% of global output and consumption at 62.6% [4] - The demand from sectors such as power grids, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles has contributed significantly to domestic demand growth [4] - It is expected that electrolytic aluminum prices will remain in the range of 20,600 to 21,300 RMB per ton, while alumina prices will stay between 3,200 to 3,300 RMB, indicating an overall upward price trend [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has prioritized shareholder returns, spending 2.61 billion HKD to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, which directly enhances earnings per share [5] - The company has committed to maintaining the dividend payout ratio at the 2024 level for 2025 and announced a new repurchase plan of no less than 3 billion HKD, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), citing improved macro sentiment and revised aluminum price assumptions for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 240 billion, 242 billion, and 269 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao achieved operating revenue of 81.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year [1] - The company reported sales volumes for electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum processing products at 2.906 million, 6.368 million, and 392 thousand tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.4%, 15.6%, and 3.5% [1] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margins for electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum processing products were 25.2%, 28.8%, and 23.3%, reflecting increases of 0.6 percentage points, 3.4 percentage points, and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by rising prices [1] - The company's share of profits from joint ventures reached 1.8 billion yuan, significantly up from 800 million yuan in the same period last year, surpassing the total of 1.76 billion yuan for the entire previous year [2] Group 3: Share Buyback and Market Confidence - As of the first half of 2025, the company had repurchased and canceled 187 million shares for a total amount of 2.4 billion yuan, with a new buyback plan announced totaling no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars [3] - The ongoing buyback activity, which has reached a historical high in 2025, reflects the company's confidence in its future development [3] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is nearing capacity in China, while overseas production faces high construction costs and long timelines, leading to a supply growth rate of around 1% [4] - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow by 2-3% due to factors such as renewable energy, grid construction, and packaging consumption, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [4]

Industry Overview - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has called for enhanced industry self-discipline to maintain fair competition and a healthy market order in the photovoltaic sector, which is a strategic emerging industry with global advantages [2] - The industry is currently facing supply-demand imbalances and intensified market competition, hindering high-quality development [2] Self-Discipline Initiatives - Companies are urged to resist engaging in malicious competition by selling below cost and to adhere to quality standards to avoid subpar products [2] - The association emphasizes the importance of innovation and transitioning from low-efficiency competition to high-quality competition [2] - Local governments are encouraged to enforce antitrust laws and ensure compliance with national market policies [2] Price Recovery in the Supply Chain - Recent months have seen a recovery in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain, influenced by expectations of "anti-involution" measures and self-discipline agreements [3] - Prices for key components such as silicon materials and wafers have significantly increased since early July, with module prices also showing recovery [3] - Recent procurement projects by major companies have seen bids higher than previous central enterprise procurement prices, indicating a positive price trend [3] Financial Performance of Photovoltaic Companies - A limited number of photovoltaic equipment stocks reported positive net profit growth for the first half of 2025, with notable performers including Jinlang Technology, which achieved a net profit of 602 million yuan, up 70.96% year-on-year [4][5] - Other companies like Hengdian East Magnetic and Qingyuan Co. also reported substantial profit increases, reflecting strong market demand and recovery in the European market [4][5] Investment Trends - As of August 22, seven photovoltaic equipment stocks have seen net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [5] - Jiejia Weichuang leads with a net purchase of 747 million yuan since August, and its stock has risen 25.2% year-to-date [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ambitious plans of businessman Dou Zhenggang to achieve a long-sought goal of listing Sanmenxia Aluminum through a reverse merger with Jiaozuo Wanfang, with a proposed transaction value of approximately 31.9 billion yuan [1][14]. Company Overview - Dou Zhenggang, founder of Hangzhou Jinjiang Group, has built a diversified business empire worth over 80 billion yuan, spanning sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemical new materials, and environmental energy [1][6]. - Sanmenxia Aluminum is positioned as a leading global aluminum-based materials company, with significant production capacity in alumina and gallium [16]. Transaction Details - The proposed acquisition involves purchasing 99.4375% of Sanmenxia Aluminum for approximately 31.9 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from a previous valuation of 15.56 billion yuan in 2021 [14][15]. - If successful, this transaction will result in Jinjiang Group becoming the controlling shareholder of Jiaozuo Wanfang, while Dou Zhenggang remains the actual controller [16][17]. Financial Performance - Sanmenxia Aluminum reported revenues of 23.744 billion yuan, 25.163 billion yuan, 35.539 billion yuan, and 11.181 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and the first four months of 2025, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.347 billion yuan, 2.844 billion yuan, 9.566 billion yuan, and 2.108 billion yuan [17]. - Dou Zhenggang has committed to ensuring that Sanmenxia Aluminum achieves a total net profit of no less than 10.034 billion yuan over the next three years (2026-2028) [18].

Transaction Overview - The company plans to sell its 2.50% stake in Sanmenxia Aluminum to Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum through a share issuance, with the share price set at 5.39 yuan per share, resulting in the company receiving 149,025,974 shares [1][2] - The total valuation of Sanmenxia Aluminum's 100% equity is assessed at 3,213,600,000 yuan, with the company's stake valued at 80,325,000 yuan [2] Board Approval - The company's board approved the sale of the 2.50% stake in Sanmenxia Aluminum during the fourth meeting of the seventh board on August 22, 2025 [3] Regulatory Compliance - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring as defined by regulations, and it falls within the board's authority without needing shareholder approval [4] Transaction Conditions - The transaction is subject to approval by Jiaozuo Wanfang's shareholders, exchange review, and registration approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [5] Financial Impact - The transaction will not involve cash payment and is not expected to adversely affect the company's consolidated financial statements, main business, or cash flow [11]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a 13% year-on-year increase in consolidated revenue for the Indian aluminum industry, reaching 642.32 billion INR in Q2 2025, while net profit rose by 30% to 40.04 billion INR [5][14] - Novelis reported a 13% increase in revenue to 4.72 billion USD in Q2 2025, driven by higher average aluminum prices, although adjusted EBITDA decreased by 17% due to rising scrap prices and tariffs [6] - The aluminum ingot segment saw a 6% increase in revenue to 93.31 billion INR, with EBITDA rising by 17% to 40.80 billion INR, benefiting from lower raw material costs [9] - The aluminum products segment achieved a record EBITDA of 2.29 billion INR, up 108% year-on-year, attributed to higher value-added products [10] - Copper revenue increased by 12% to 148.86 billion INR, with EBITDA at 6.73 billion INR, impacted by a significant drop in TC/RCs offset by rising sulfuric acid sales prices [11] Summary by Sections Production and Operations - Flat rolled products total shipments were 963,000 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Aluminum ingot total shipments were 325,000 tons, a 1% decrease year-on-year and a 2% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2] - Downstream aluminum sales volume was 101,000 tons, a 6% increase year-on-year but a 4% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3] - Metal copper sales volume was 124,000 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year but an 8% decrease quarter-on-quarter [4] Financial Performance - Consolidated revenue for Q2 2025 was 642.32 billion INR, a 13% increase year-on-year but a 1% decrease quarter-on-quarter [5] - EBITDA for Q2 2025 was 86.73 billion INR, a 9% increase year-on-year but a 16% decrease quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit for Q2 2025 was 40.04 billion INR, a 30% increase year-on-year but a 24% decrease quarter-on-quarter [5] Segment Performance - Novelis revenue for Q2 2025 was 4.72 billion USD, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA of 416 million USD, down 17% [6] - Aluminum ingot revenue for Q2 2025 was 93.31 billion INR, with EBITDA of 40.80 billion INR, achieving a leading gross margin of 44% [9] - Aluminum products revenue reached 33.53 billion INR, with EBITDA of 2.29 billion INR, reflecting a significant increase in high-value products [10] - Copper revenue for Q2 2025 was 148.86 billion INR, with EBITDA of 6.73 billion INR [11]