Core Viewpoint - The book "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle" by Ray Dalio discusses the mechanisms behind government debt, internal politics, and geopolitical issues, focusing on when and why central banks and nations may face bankruptcy [4][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Book Overview - The book was completed in March 2025 and published in Chinese just three months later, highlighting the author's long-standing relationship with China since the early 1980s [2]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes sharing insights gained from over 50 years in global macro investing, aiming to help policymakers and investors understand the "big cycle" driven by debt and other significant factors [4][3]. Key Themes - The book addresses critical questions about the limits of debt growth, the formation of government debt, and the potential for major reserve currency countries to go bankrupt [3]. - Dalio outlines the importance of understanding historical patterns to predict future events, emphasizing that recognizing causal relationships can help navigate current and future challenges [7][4]. The Big Cycle Theory - The "big cycle" theory is driven by five major forces: debt/credit/money/economic cycles, internal order and chaos cycles, external order and chaos cycles, natural forces, and human creativity, particularly technological advancements [7][12]. - The author argues that we are currently in the late stage of a big cycle characterized by high national debt, increasing nationalism, and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to significant changes in global order [9][11]. Debt and Economic Cycles - Short-term economic cycles average around six years, while long-term debt cycles last approximately 80 years, with unsustainable debt creation leading to crises [8][12]. - The book posits that the current global situation mirrors historical periods of high debt and governance challenges, suggesting a potential rise in populism and authoritarianism [15][14]. Recommendations for Investors - Dalio advises investors to be aware of the risks associated with extreme actions taken by governments and to adopt a diversified investment strategy based on sound fundamentals [17][16]. - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between technological advancements and economic cycles, noting that while technology can drive progress, it may also lead to financial instability if not managed properly [12][16].

Core Insights - Rongtong Fund's wholly-owned overseas subsidiary, Rongtong International, successfully launched its first public fund, the Rongtong US Dollar Money Market Fund, in Hong Kong, marking a significant advancement in its asset management business [1] - The fund is managed by Rongtong International, with China Chengtong (Hong Kong) Asset Management Co., Ltd. serving as the investment advisor [1] Group 1 - Since joining China Chengtong Group, Rongtong Fund has established a "dual-driven" development model focusing on state-owned capital operations and resident wealth management [1] - The company aims to develop a "two-winged" growth strategy that integrates domestic and international business [1] - The issuance of public fund products is a crucial step in Rongtong International's international business layout, enhancing its product system to meet diverse investor needs [1] Group 2 - Money market funds are a vital component of cash management tools in the Hong Kong market, providing investors with a balance of safety, liquidity, and returns [1] - This initiative is expected to enhance the depth and breadth of Hong Kong's international financial center, increasing its market competitiveness [1] - Rongtong International plans to continue its commitment to a uniquely Chinese financial development path, improving professional service capabilities and promoting product innovation [1]

新华财经北京7月31日电（崔凯）日本央行31日决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，这是连续第四次会议保 持利率稳定，符合市场预期。在这次会议上，日本央行对当前经济形势、物价前景以及全球贸易政策的 影响进行了深入分析，并提出了未来展望。 日本央行指出，尽管近期财政扩张举措，特别是美国和欧洲的措施，有望推动全球经济增长，但已公布 的贸易政策可能引发全球化趋势的转变，并通过各种渠道对日本及海外经济体的表现产生负面影响。此 外，各国贸易谈判的不确定性及其对国内外经济和物价的影响仍然很高。 关于物价前景，日本央行表示总体平衡，但也警告食品价格上涨可能会通过改变家庭情绪和通胀预期， 对核心消费者物价指数产生第二轮影响。虽然包括大米在内的食品价格上涨影响可能逐渐消退，但如果 工资和物价逐步上涨的循环持续，将有助于经济复苏。 日本央行预测，从2025财年到2027财年的预测期后半段，潜在消费者通胀率可能会大体维持在与2%的 目标水平相符的位置。对于实际国内生产总值（GDP）的增长预测，2025财年为增长0.6%，2026财年 为增长0.7%，2027财年为增长1.0%，均与此前预测持平或略有上调。同时，货币政策委员会对2026财 ...

Group 1 - The core finding of the Fidelity International survey indicates that only 16% of Hong Kong investors hold digital assets, with significant age-related differences in ownership [1] - Among investors under 40, 23% own digital assets, while only 12% of those aged 40 to 54 and 5% of those aged 55 and above have such assets [1] - The survey reveals a stark gender disparity, with 41% of male investors aged 18 to 29 holding digital assets compared to only 9% of female investors [1] Group 2 - Investor confidence in digital assets is increasing, with 53% of current holders planning to maintain their positions, 34% intending to increase their holdings, and only 13% looking to reduce them [1] - The survey indicates a growing interest in digital assets as an emerging asset class, with the Bitcoin market size expanding to over $2 trillion over the past five years [1] - The survey also highlights that while investors tend to favor short-term gains, investment horizons vary widely, with 37% planning to invest for less than 12 months and 22% for over five years [2] Group 3 - Fidelity International's digital asset investment vice president notes that more investors are diversifying their portfolios by looking beyond traditional assets [2] - The increasing market size of Bitcoin necessitates more capital to influence its price, aligning with the observed decrease in volatility and returns compared to previous cycles [2] - Factors such as improved liquidity, market maturity, increased hedging tools, and clearer regulations are expected to further reduce the volatility of digital assets [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Hong Kong asset management and private equity industry is demonstrating resilience amidst global geopolitical uncertainties and uneven economic recovery, solidifying its position as a financial hub in the Asia-Pacific region [1][13][18] - By the end of 2024, the total assets under management in Hong Kong's asset and wealth management industry are expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, reaching HKD 35.1 trillion, with net inflows surging by 81% [1][18][21] Group 2: IPO Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong raised HKD 107.1 billion through IPOs, marking the highest level since 2021, driven by "A+H" listings contributing 72% of the total financing [1][21][22] - The strong performance of the IPO market is supported by a robust pipeline of companies in technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors, with a record 26 A-share companies seeking dual listings in Hong Kong [1][21] Group 3: Industry Consolidation and Trends - Global asset management is experiencing significant consolidation, with firms seeking to expand scale and product offerings through mergers and acquisitions, a trend also evident in Hong Kong [2][27][28] - The rise of a "multi-strategy supermarket" model is emerging, where firms offer a wide range of investment solutions to meet the diverse needs of Asia's growing middle class [2][27] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is enhancing scrutiny of asset management firms, focusing on potential risks in private fund management and aiming to improve compliance standards [2][34][37] - Key regulatory priorities include investor protection, cybersecurity, and the implementation of robust internal controls to mitigate risks in the digital age [2][34][39] Group 5: Tax Policy Optimization - Hong Kong is reforming its Unified Fund Exemption (UFE) system to include more investment categories and simplify approval processes, enhancing tax certainty for fund managers [3][43][44] - The proposed reforms aim to attract international fund managers by providing clearer guidelines and expanding the scope of tax exemptions [3][43][45] Group 6: Private Equity and Alternative Investments - Despite geopolitical tensions, the Chinese mainland market remains vibrant, with active RMB funding providing exit opportunities for foreign investors [3][48] - The emergence of structured liquidity solutions is accelerating the development of the secondary private equity market, catering to the growing demand for liquidity and exit strategies [3][48] Group 7: Cross-Border Cooperation and Technological Innovation - Hong Kong is enhancing cross-border investment facilitation, with initiatives like "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect 2.0" expanding participation and product offerings [4][13] - Technological innovations, particularly in artificial intelligence and virtual assets, are reshaping the industry landscape, improving operational efficiency and attracting retail investors [4][5][13] Group 8: Family Offices and Wealth Management - The number of family offices in Hong Kong is projected to grow by 43% by 2025, driven by government initiatives to attract ultra-high-net-worth individuals [5][13] - Local asset management firms are expanding services to include wealth management and tax consulting, enhancing Hong Kong's appeal to global family offices [5][13]

美国6月整体及核心CPI略有反弹，供应管理会制造业PMI连续4个月低于荣枯线50，但6月失业率下行至 4.1%，显示美国就业形势稳定，而美国刚公布的二季度GDP初值环比折年率超预期达到3%。另外，美 国"对等关税"大限在即，特朗普总统多次施压引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，均使美联储7月会议结 果备受关注。美东时间7月30日，美联储7月会议维持政策利率不变，但有两位委员表明应立即降息。美 股表现分化：万得数据显示，昨夜道琼斯指数下跌0.38%，标普500指数下跌0.12%，纳斯达克指数上 0.15%，美元指数几乎平盘，美国10年期国债收益率收在4.38%。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言重点包括了： 一：虽然净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，经济前景不确定 性仍然偏高，委员会决定将联邦基准利率区间维持4.25%至4.5%不变。 二：会后声明指出，劳动力市场依然稳定，失业率保持低位，但通胀仍然偏高；在评估适当的货币政策 立场时，委员会关注政策使命的双重风险。 三、米歇尔·勒鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒持两位委员 ...

专题：美联储如预期所料按兵不动 利率声明暗示降息之日渐近 7月31日，美国6月整体及核心CPI略有反弹，供应管理会制造业PMI连续4个月低于荣枯线50，但6月失 业率下行至4.1%，显示美国就业形势稳定，而美国刚公布的二季度GDP初值环比折年率超预期达到 3%。另外，美国"对等关税"大限在即，特朗普总统多次施压引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，均使美 联储7月会议结果备受关注。美东时间7月30日，美联储7月会议维持政策利率不变，但有两位委员表明 应立即降息。美股表現分化：万得数据显示，昨夜道琼斯指数下跌0.38%，标普500指数下跌0.12%，纳 斯达克指数上0.15%，美元指数几乎平盘，美国10年期国债收益率收在4.38%。 美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言重点包括了： 一：虽然净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，经济前景不确定 性仍然偏高，委员会决定将联邦基准利率区间维持4.25%至4.5%不变。 二：会后声明指出，劳动力市场依然稳定，失业率保持低位，但通胀仍然偏高；在评估适当的货币政策 立场时，委员会关注政策使命的双重风险。 三、米歇尔-勒鲍曼和克里斯托弗-沃勒持两位委员持 ...

7月30日，国家金融监督管理总局批复称，同意中央汇金投资有限责任公司（以下简称中央汇金）受让财政部持有的中国农业再保险股份有限公司（以下 简称中国农再）90亿股股份。 受让后，财政部不再持股中国农再，中央汇金合计持股中国农再55.9%。 财政部正式退出中国农再 国家金融监督管理总局公告显示，同意中央汇金受让财政部持有的中国农再90亿股股份，此后中央汇金对中国农再的持股比例为55.9%。 同时，监管要求中国农再严格遵照有关法律法规完成上述股权变更事宜，并强化股权管理，进一步优化股权结构，严格控制股东关联交易，完善公司治理 与内部控制机制，防范和化解风险。 【导读】受让财政部所持全部股份，中央汇金持股中国农再55.90%股权获批 此次股权划转，标志着财政部正式退出中国农再的股东行列，中央汇金将成为其控股股东。 资料显示，中国农再成立于2020年12月，注册资本为161亿元，是经国务院批准，由财政部、农业农村部、原银保监会共同筹备组建，并由财政部、中国 再保险（集团）股份有限公司、中国农业发展银行等9家单位发起设立，也是我国唯一一家农业再保险公司，主要承担农业保险大灾风险分散功能。 财报显示，截至2024年末，中国 ...

【 导读 】 受让财政部所持全部股份，中央汇金持股中国农再55.90%股权获批 中国基金报记者 马嘉昕 7月30日，国家金融监督管理总局批复称，同意中央汇金投资有限责任公司（以下简称中央汇 金）受让财政部持有的中国农业再保险股份有限公司（以下简称中国农再）90亿股股份。 受让后，财政部不再持股中国农再，中央汇金合计持股中国农再55.9%。 财政部正式退出中国农再 国家金融监督管理总局公告显示，同意中央汇金受让财政部持有的中国农再90亿股股份，此 后中央汇金对中国农再的持股比例为55.9%。 同时，监管要求中国农再严格遵照有关法律法规完成上述股权变更事宜，并强化股权管理， 进一步优化股权结构，严格控制股东关联交易，完善公司治理与内部控制机制，防范和化解 风险。 此次股权划转，标志着财政部正式退出中国农再的股东行列，中央汇金将成为其控股股东。 资料显示，中国农再成立于2020年12月，注册资本为161亿元，是经国务院批准，由财政 部、农业农村部、原银保监会共同筹备组建，并由财政部、中国再保险（集团）股份有限公 司、中国农业发展银行等9家单位发起设立，也是我国唯一一家农业再保险公司，主要承担农 业保险大灾风险分散功 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - Ashish Shah from Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that if inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve may resume its easing cycle in the fall [1]