宏观日报 | 2026-02-10 上游价格持续回落 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）商务部召开汽车企业座谈会，研究汽车流通消费有关工作。商务部副部长盛秋平在会上指出，我国 超大规模市场基础牢，汽车消费链条长潜力大，政策接续实施支撑稳，全链条扩大汽车消费大有可为。2026年， 商务部将会同相关部门，坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，存量措施和增量政策集成发力，优化实施汽车以旧换新， 开展汽车流通消费改革试点，完善行业管理制度，多措并举推动汽车消费扩容提质。 服务行业：1）财政部、海关总署、税务总局发布关于跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优惠政策的公告。支持跨境 电子商务新业态发展，现将跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优惠政策公告如下：对自2026年1月1日至2027年12月 31日期间在跨境电子商务海关监管代码（1210、9610、9710、9810）项下申报出口，因滞销、退货原因，自出口 之日起6个月内原状退运进境的商品（不含食品），免征进口关税和进口环节增值税、消费税；出口时已征收的出 口关税准予退还，出口时已征收的增值税、消费税参照内销货物发生退货有关税收规定执行。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游： ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月10日 (原油) 美伊均对上周五在阿曼举行的会谈给予积极评价,并计划本周继续磋商。市场短期认为局势失控风 险降低,对冲突和供应中断的担忧有所缓解。这一判断也与政治现实相符：考虑到低油价承诺及中 期选举临近，美方在选前主动升级局势的可能性较低。然而伊朗态度依然强硬，其外长强调承认铂 浓缩权利是谈判关键,双方核心分歧显著,僵局可能持续。而特朗普在委内瑞拉的成功或增强其对 伊朗的施压信心，不愿轻易让步。因此短期内对峙难有突破。布伦特油价在68-70美元区间大幅震 荡，反映出在谈判前景不明、对峙持续的背景下，市场持续计入地缘风险溢价。预计油价将保持高 波动性，且继续蕴含显著的地缘政治风险溢价。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡反弹。市场聚焦本周美国非农就业和CPI数据以重新评估降息前景，美国国家经济委 员会主任哈塞特预警就业增长数字将会下降，但认为GDP增长非常强劲。美伊谈判将会继续，她缘仍 存在不确定性。短期贵金属处于剧烈震荡阶段，观望等待波动率下降。 （铜） 隔夜铜价随贵金属反弹，沪铜节前继续减仓，市场持续关注地缘风险与长线战略金属价值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-1 ...

文字早评 2026/02/10 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美股纳指收涨近 1%，贵金属连续两日反弹，稀土主流产品价格整体上行； 2、赛博无人驾驶电动车 Tesla Cybercab 将在得州超级工厂开启量产并投入运营；小马智行联合丰田， 首台量产铂智 4X Robotaxi 下线； 3、智光电气签订 10.04 亿元储能系统买卖合同，源杰科技拟 12.51 亿元投建光电通讯半导体芯片和器 件研发生产项目； 4、字节 AI 视频生成模型发布，阿里、百度、快手、百度已发布 AI 应用产品，后续还有 DS V4、Qwen3.5、 豆包 2.0 等。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-4.54%/-0.48%/3.40%/4.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-7.08%/-0.04%/6.66%/6.11%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-16.33%/0.15%/11.94%/9.80%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.57%/-0.76%/0.52%/2.56%。 【策略观点】 贵金属 近日美国货币政策预期分歧加剧，压制资本市场风险偏好，美股、贵金属波动加剧；国内临 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, marking a new requirement for monetary policy in response to changing internal and external environments [1][4]. - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy reflects continuity and stability in policy, enhancing the targeting and flexibility of economic regulation amid increasing external pressures and internal difficulties [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China has taken measures such as lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1 percentage points and the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to support the real economy [2]. Group 2 - In 2025, China's GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, but quarterly growth rates showed a declining trend, indicating increasing pressure on stable economic operation [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained below 1% since March 2023, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative growth since October 2022, reflecting insufficient effective demand and other structural challenges [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference identified the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the importance of monetary policy in guiding price levels back to reasonable ranges [4][6]. Group 3 - The need for innovative and improved policy tools and methods is highlighted, along with the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to achieve effective macroeconomic governance [6][8]. - The government plans to increase fiscal spending in 2026 to support key tasks such as expanding domestic demand, while ensuring that fiscal policies are effectively transmitted to the real economy [8]. - There is a focus on enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery, addressing both demand insufficiency and structural issues [9].

2025年召开的中央农村工作会议，全面贯彻习近平总书记关于"三农"工作的重要论述和重要指示精神， 落实中央经济工作会议精神，部署2026年"三农"工作。习近平总书记对做好"三农"工作作出重要指示， 强调"要毫不放松抓好粮食生产，促进良田良种良机良法集成增效，提升农业综合生产能力和质量效 益"。2026年中央一号文件提出"守牢国家粮食安全底线"，并对"稳定发展粮油生产"作出部署。粮食生 产事关经济社会发展大局，必须找准重点，持续提高农业综合生产能力，牢牢掌握粮食安全主动权。 党的十八大以来，我国粮食产量不断增加，2015年、2024年分别迈上1.3万亿斤和1.4万亿斤台阶。2025 年粮食产量再创历史新高，达到1.43万亿斤。尽管近年来我国粮食供应充足稳定，但随着经济发展和城 乡居民生活水平提高，粮食和重要农产品需求还将持续增长，长远看粮食产需还是紧平衡态势。 从消费需求看，我国正在从中高收入国家向高收入国家迈进，随着收入水平提高，居民粮食直接消费有 所减少，但肉蛋奶以及水产品等食物需求还将持续增长，这些高营养高附加值食物需要数倍的饲料粮投 入。2023年，我国粮食消费总量中，饲用占比达53%，远高于食用的33 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing regional development coordination and promoting urban-rural integration in Fujian through the strategy of "mountain-sea cooperation" initiated by Xi Jinping, aiming for shared prosperity and effective resource utilization [1]. Mechanism Innovation - The Fuzhou-Nanping New Era Mountain-Sea Cooperation Party and Government Joint Conference was held, marking a significant step in deepening cooperation between Fuzhou and Nanping [2]. - In 2023, Fujian Province issued guidelines to further deepen mountain-sea cooperation, optimizing collaboration relationships and establishing three pairs of city-to-city cooperation [2]. - A total of 6.32 billion yuan was allocated for cooperation funding in 2024, providing strong support for mountainous areas [2]. Industry Coordination - 101 key mountain-sea cooperation projects are progressing, with significant achievements in the construction of six key "industrial and technological innovation zones" [3]. - The "flying economy" model is being promoted to address regional development imbalances, combining coastal advantages with mountainous resources [5]. - The Xialong Mountain-Sea Cooperation Industrial Park has signed 34 projects with a total investment exceeding 1.6 billion yuan since 2025 [5]. Infrastructure Connectivity - The completion of the Minjiang Waterway Hub has significantly increased the shipping capacity from 50 tons to 500 tons, enhancing trade routes between inland and coastal areas [8]. - The South Ping Port has facilitated over 340,000 tons of goods since its reopening, improving logistics networks and reducing costs for local enterprises [9]. - A comprehensive transportation network is being developed, including railways and highways, to strengthen connections between mountainous and coastal regions [10]. Shared Livelihood - In the healthcare sector, coastal hospitals are providing support to 25 mountainous county hospitals, with over 300 medical personnel conducting outreach [13]. - Employment initiatives have been launched, including 45 specialized recruitment fairs and vocational training for over 60,000 individuals [13]. - The income disparity among residents is gradually decreasing, with the urbanization rate reaching 71.8% and the urban-rural income ratio narrowing to 2.06 [13].

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 【粕类日报】供应压力增加 盘面整体下行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 交易策略 单边：偏空思路为主 | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/2/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2926 | - 2 | 天津 | 400 | 430 | -30 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2729 | - 6 | | 280 | 260 | 2 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2857 | - 1 | | 290 | 290 | 0 | | 日照 | | | | | 300 | 290 | 1 0 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2230 | - 3 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing human exchanges and economic cooperation between China and Russia following the introduction of mutual visa-free travel, highlighting the potential for collaboration in various sectors such as digital economy, energy, and agriculture [1] Group 1: Human Exchanges - The Russian Ambassador to APEC, Marat Berdyev, noted the enthusiasm of Russians traveling to China, indicating a full flight from Russia to Guangzhou [1] - The ambassador expressed a desire to visit China again in various capacities to deepen cooperation [1] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - APEC economies represent a significant portion of Russia's overall trade, with efforts underway to establish relevant mechanisms for trade enhancement [1] - Russia's Eurasian Economic Union has already signed a free trade agreement with Vietnam and plans to sign another with Indonesia by December 2025, indicating a strategy to expand relations with APEC economies [1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Opportunities - There are broad cooperation prospects between China and Russia in sectors such as digital economy, energy, critical mineral resources, and agriculture [1] - In the nuclear energy sector, most of the world's ongoing nuclear power plant constructions are located in China and Russia, suggesting strong potential for collaboration [1] - Russia is expected to lead in chicken product trade with China by 2025, indicating a significant agricultural trade relationship [1]